Philly - Tue$

[Jimboski]

Plenty of short fields again at Philly. That's good and bad though - GOOD cause those are usually SKIPable and skipping races is a good thing.... BAD, cause sometimes there's a really good one in there and he would be much better odds in a race with a bigger field. Plus, generally, small fields means small prices.

I've seen much better Tuesday cards, but still come up with 3 races that are playable:

Race 6
The entry (ESP. the 1A) and the no. 7 look very much like the top two finishers and both will prob. be favored
Now, if this race was run at Aqueduct or even Belmont than SLAMMING those two with each other in Zactas would be the play. But, this is Phil-A-Del-Fee-Ah dirt bags and there's a better way to handle this situation at this bettor's paradise/wace twack. Yet, bets should be on the small side for this race methinks. Thinking about doing zactas using them two top figure hosses with a couple of pricey ones...
1A, 7 top/bot with 2,10
AND...
TWO other pricey ones that might just upset the apple cart and if either wins could result in a profit for the race. Thems are the no. 5 and no. 6.


Race 7
Tri box: 1-2-6 : thems are good nos. and each one is a contender.
.
AND "cover" the tri box with the...
.
no. 8 (with an inside post, this one would be VERY solid. Still CAN DO though - watch for this one to get a good position shortly after the start, a breather, and gets clear in the stretch. IF THAT SCENARIO does happen (takes some luck to do all 3 things though) I think you can start heading to the cashier window .

Soooo.. . ZACTAS -> no. 8 top/bot 1,2,6. Other option would be to just play the no. 8 Win/Place.

Race 8
Think this one is the least predictable, but still worth a shot at catching some moola for the circus races coming to town...
ZACTAS -> 1,4 top/bot 2,8

AND (of course)

No. 4 W/Pl/Sh @2x.

Oh, one more thing that could be important - if the track comes up sloppy, that there no. 2 hoss in the 7th race gets played a little heavier.

Doesn't look like anybody is PLAYING the picks exactly like I do and that may be a good idea. I know some of the plays look like contadictions, but the second bet does cover the main bet and quite often the "cover" bet is much more profitable than the "main/initial" bet. Yes, it does cost more but if you/me is confident about the picks it usualy works out playing them that way in the long run. In races where I feel VERY confident about he play - there is no 2nd, "cover" play.

Anyways, No sense doing all the typing; and I think folks MAY be interested in just the horses I'll be dealing with (OR just like to read :mj07 . That is, the top picks I got at least. I'll post them like that in the future. Just the hosses.

Good luck today whatever you play.

 

[deliman]

Hi Jim
thanks for your picks today think ill head up to the office and dabble do you have anything interesting for the breeders cup if so would love to here it or if anybody else,Hamster Mully etc thanks again in advance glta

 

[hogman14]

Good luck my dude

 

[Hamster]

R6: :toast:
7 $4.00 $3.20 $2.40
10 $19.80 $11.00

EX:$82 for $2

 

[Jimboski]

Results

Results

OH Yeeeeeah! LOL

SWEPT the mutha jumpin card (my card of only 3 races, that is) today and I'm STILL PO'd. :mj13:

Like, what are you doing to us/me, PHIL?? This is VERY MUCH not like you!

6th race - the no. 2 got scratched; so we only have the no. 1 entry and no. 7 top/bot with the no. 10. Now you know the results, right? There were TWO big favs. just like we figured (1,7), the 7 wins at 1-1, the other BIG fav., no.1, doesn't get in the zacta (got third; doesn't matter for our exactas) and the NO. !0 gets second at freakin 35-1 . THIRTY FIVE TO ONE! What does our zacta pay.... ?... .. 82 STINKIN bucks and thats in a field of 9 hosses too. :wtf:

Now, compare the payoffs in 7th race....OK, the no. 8 won the race.. great. But, how bout what the ZACTA paid.... BOTH zacta hosses were 3-1, only 7 hoss field... and that comes back @ $40.40 :0023
Now, that's more like it, Phil. (BTW, I wrote," We swept the card", BUT that is if ya took the "W/P/Sh option on that no. 8 hoss". For me - I played both the across the board thingy and those exactas I listed with the no. 8 which didn't come in. The across the board bet was a WEINER.

8th race - Making it short -> got just about all the bets back on account of scratches. But the 1 and 8 ran. Yeah, they kept that bet ... but gave us a $70 exacta payoff in return. NOT TOO SHABBY

After all is said and done, not a bad day afterall.

DELIMAN: appreciate your faith re. the Breeders Cup. Based on my records with the BIG SHOW - you DON'T want my picks. Nice to see you believe I can pick a winner but I DON'T believe it. Last year I didn't play a single hoss in that show. I can look over the entries (that is not even a tiny fraction of the time I do my Philly race handicapping). And I may post something for ya. Funny thing is that my record in the Triple Crown races is quite GOOD. Again, NOT so for B.C.s , I'd love to get back a dime for every dollar I've lost in those races and probably does make me even more bitter is that the ONE time I DID pick a huge trifecta in the Turf BC race... it came in with a 20-1 shot on top.. I was estatic. Without a doubt a 4 figure payoff. What happened.... thems took the bastage down and I collected poopies.



G.L.