Playoffs

[BASON]

I do not think I have seen a year where the playoffs are so wide open, especially in the AFC. But to me, any team can win this thing. You need a great defense or a great QB to win the Super Bowl. Sure there are some exceptions once in a while, but this is how I cap the playoffs. I will never bet on a team in the playoffs unless I like the QB of defensive match up. This year I am betting on the best defenses to make an impact. I am not a big fan of future bets, but I did make a few for the hell of it this year:

AFC - Ravens +500
NFC - Bears +400
Ravens/Bears +3500

Obviously long shot bets, but I am going with the two best defenses in the football to make it to the Super Bowl. The crazy scoring subsided some the latter part of the season and defenses started to shine when it mattered most. Chiefs and the Rams were all the rage early in the season, but they both have displayed some defensive flaws down the stretch and they both have unproven QBs. Yes, Mahomes looks amazing, but he has yet to experience playoff football. If the Ravens win he could get a strong dose right away. I am not trusting Goff in real pressure situations. I love the Bears path to the Championship game. They beat Philly and then get the Rams in LA. I see their defense dominating those two games. The Ravens are fickle but they get a SD team they just beat on the road and then likely go the Chiefs where they should have won a few weeks ago. As long as Jackson does not make mistakes (and that is a big if right now), I like them in both those games. Half the battle is getting to the championship game, but I like both teams to get there with their defenses. If they both get there, they will have all the momentum and we have great odds to hedge off of if need be.

 

[BASON]

I already opened this 3-teamer up

Ravens +7.5
Open
Open

Will take the Ravens getting more than a TD at home all day long. If fact, you can get Houston and Dallas at the same numbers. I need to look into those games some more though. I am definitely not a Prescott fan so do not think I can take Dallas.

 

[lowell]

Went ahead and took Texans, Dallas and Ravens plus 7.5 in 3 teaser.

 

[BASON]

Certainly hard not to take those points at home. I just have to get over the Prescott factor, as I have no faith in him. I do think Dallas can stop Seattle from running the ball and that is the key to beating them. If they can put in an effort at home like the did against the Saints they should win. Also want to take a quick look at Indy' history in Houston.

The history certainly supports taking the Colts + in the teaser. They have won 5 out of the last 6 in Houston and are 26-8 in the all time series. AND, only once in all 26 games did they ever lose by more than 12 points (2011).

 

[lowell]

I may buy the Eagles to plus 7. Do not think the Eagles will go quietly. I trust Foles more than Tribusky in a big game. Eagles though better stop his scrambling .

 

[BASON]

I will not bet against the Bears defense. Foles had his miracle year last year. I am not a believer in the Eagles this year. I really do not see the Bears losing this game with that defense. I think they force Foles into a couple turnovers. He was not that good this week in Washington.

 

[BASON]

I am going to watch some of these lines before I fill, but hard to ignore the Indy history against the Texans.

 

[BASON]

Bear line finally came up so adding them to the 3-teamer with the Ravens. Also adding the Colts as I simply can not deny the history between those two teams as posted above. I think Luck is the more battled tested and better QB. So final 3 teamer is:

Ravens +7.5
Bears +4.5
Colts +12.5

 

[BASON]

One more:

Bears +4.5
Seattle +11
Indy +11

Just getting them in as these lines continue to come down. Maybe they go back, but Indy and Seattle getting at least 10.5 is enough for me not to take the chance. I actually think both will win. Two dogs will win, so hoping one is not SD as a Ravens fan and I do not like Philly at all as the Bears defense should consume that offense.

 

[jdubshady]

I will not bet against the Bears defense. Foles had his miracle year last year. I am not a believer in the Eagles this year. I really do not see the Bears losing this game with that defense. I think they force Foles into a couple turnovers. He was not that good this week in Washington.

He was not that good? He completed 25 passes in a row and had one bad pass early in the game :mj07:

 

[BASON]

Yeah, for an average of 6.7 yards a completion. Nothing down the field against a disinterested Washington team.

Go ahead and load up on the Eagles this weekend. I wish you well.

 

[The Joker]

I trust Foles more than Tribusky in a big game.

:toast:

 

[bosbabiesarm]

I will not bet against the Bears defense. Foles had his miracle year last year. I am not a believer in the Eagles this year. I really do not see the Bears losing this game with that defense. I think they force Foles into a couple turnovers. He was not that good this week in Washington.

Bason one thing I have Learned in over 30 years of sports betting. Never handicap is sporting event based on if my team gets this many turnovers. That subject is just too big of an unknown to put into a side in the game. I am agreeing on some of your thoughts and think you?re spot on great job.

 

[BASON]

I agree. You can not cap turnovers. I am betting on the superior defense. Philly can not run the ball at all and Chicago has the number one defense against the run in the NFL. I think it is fair to say that the Eagles have little to no chance to run the ball effectively, so Philly has to pass most of the game against the defense that leads the NFL in interceptions (6 more than any other team) and is second in the league in sacks with 50. So we have a Philly team that is one dimensional on offense against a Bear's defense designed and proven to stop such an offense on their home field. That is more than enough for me to like the Bears. Philly simply does not have the offense to overcome that defense in my opinion.

Can Foles play out of his mind again and lead the Eagles to victory? Maybe, but I will not be betting on it!

 

[bosbabiesarm]

Agree it will be tough sledding in the trenches for philly, they still have to rush it 30 times. I trust Foles more than Mitchell right now. Only way they don?t have a min. Of 30 carries is if they get down 14 early.

 

[BASON]

Ravens are completely incompetent on offense. Jackson is proving he is a rookie and has to be taken out of the game.

I have in-game bets on the Chargers so I am not betting the halftime line, but I would take them if I did not have the in-game bets hedging out the teaser.

 

[BASON]

I feel confident in saying that the Ravens will never make the playoffs with Lamar Jackson at QB. I do not see his passing game improving to be good enough to win consistently in the NFL. Harbaugh not playing Flacco is undefensable. Simply no excuse for not putting your best team on the field. How can you continue to play a QB who has 0 passing yards into the 4th quarter. As a Ravens fan, I absolutely hate John Harbaugh. This game was a complete embarrassment and a great example of why I emphasize coaching so much. The Chargers utterly and completely out-coached the Ravens in this game.

Glad I sold my season tickets a few years ago, as they are basically worthless after this game.

 

[jdubshady]

Yeah, for an average of 6.7 yards a completion. Nothing down the field against a disinterested Washington team.

Go ahead and load up on the Eagles this weekend. I wish you well.

Nice call :0008

 

[BASON]

Who cares, both my plays posted in here won. What did you post?

Actually the game went like I thought. Philly only ran for 42 yards, Foles threw 2 picks and threw 40 times. Chicago just sucked on offense and Philly was given 7 points. But my bank account grew and that is all I really care about. Will try to be more perfect like you next time.

 

[BASON]

Opened this up early this morning

Chargers +14.5
Open
Open

Will fill once I have a chance to do some work, but I love the Chargers getting this number. I also put them in one with Clemson and the over.