Please look at this before placing a wager on games 6/7

[CartersCubs]

In every game in this series the winning team has had their pitcher go for more innings than the opposing pitcher. Here are the results:

Game 1:
Lee 9.0 IP
Sabathia 7.0 IP
Winner: PHILLY

Game 2:
Martinez 6.0 IP
Burnett 7.0 IP
Winner: NYY

Game 3:
Hamels 4.1 IP
Pettitte 6.0 IP
Winner: NYY

Game 4:
Sabathia 6.2 IP
Blanton 6.0 IP
Winner: NYY

Game 5:
Lee 7.0 IP
Burnett 2.0 IP
Winner: PHILLY

Game 6:
Martinez
Pettitte

will this trend continue? I am not much of a baseball guy but I think so. Ill put my money (small wager) on the Phillies because I truly believe Pettitte will struggle on short rest and Martinez will last longer, pushing this series to game 7

 

[tubbysmith]

Not sure I'd call much of that a trend...

In game 4, it was tied at four before lidge gave it away in the 9th.

In game one with CC and lee, again the decisive runs were scored after both pitchers were done. sure, lee was up 2-1, but hughes/bruny allowed four runs to put it out of reach..

This one comes down to the 'pen imo and even though that price on philly looks tasty, the yanks probably get the W at home by virtue of some advantageous calls.

Besides, 'Ol George probably already sent the umps their christmas bonuses

 

[CartersCubs]

i understand your point but it still is a trend that is 6-0 and has yet to bet proven wrong in this series. am I right?

 

[gjn23]

i understand your point but it still is a trend that is 6-0 and has yet to bet proven wrong in this series. am I right?

you're wrong

it's only 5-0 since there's only been 5 games played.

and i'd say it's a pretty shaky/worthless trend

 

[HoopsGuru]

another thing to factor in is that the team that is winning the game is more likely to extend their starting pitcher an extra inning since they are winning lets say 6-2. If your team is losing and especially in the world series you're more likely to yank your guy earlier than normal. There's no way of knowing if pedro will go 3 innings or 7 tonight, same thing for pettite. he may go 2 innings, he may go 6 1/3. i don't see either guy lasting more than 6 innings tonight but who knows? I don't think this trend is too worthwhile.

 

[CartersCubs]

you're wrong

it's only 5-0 since there's only been 5 games played.

and i'd say it's a pretty shaky/worthless trend

ok sorry my mistake. 5-0 but it is perfect in the series.

 

[CartersCubs]

another thing to factor in is that the team that is winning the game is more likely to extend their starting pitcher an extra inning since they are winning lets say 6-2. If your team is losing and especially in the world series you're more likely to yank your guy earlier than normal. There's no way of knowing if pedro will go 3 innings or 7 tonight, same thing for pettite. he may go 2 innings, he may go 6 1/3. i don't see either guy lasting more than 6 innings tonight but who knows? I don't think this trend is too worthwhile.

There is no way of knowing which team will score more runs either. but I would rather take a well rested Pedro over an under rested Pettitte 8 days a week. The trend shows that the team that wins the starting pitcher battle has won every game in the series. That is all. Nothing more, nothing less.

 

[gjn23]

ok sorry my mistake. 5-0 but it is perfect in the series.

so are these

the team that's scored more runs is a perfect 5-0

the team that's made the last out is 0-5


trends are usually just coincidences and this one is the ultimate coincidence in that doenst help a gambler at all.......and in reality, i'd guess that team with the starter who lasted longer usually wins the game.

 

[tubbysmith]

There is no way of knowing which team will score more runs either. but I would rather take a well rested Pedro over an under rested Pettitte 8 days a week. The trend shows that the team that wins the starting pitcher battle has won every game in the series. That is all. Nothing more, nothing less.

just a thought, but i think sometimes people put too much stock in the three-day thing. like andy said today, people just tend to make a bigger deal of it now because it's not done as much anymore.

it's not that much of a difference

andy will be ready, the adrenaline should more than make up for the 'lost rest'.

pedro just seems happy to be there (no disrespect to pedro) -- could see him getting rocked tonight but who knows.

 

[CartersCubs]

just a thought, but i think sometimes people put too much stock in the three-day thing. like andy said today, people just tend to make a bigger deal of it now because it's not done as much anymore.

it's not that much of a difference

andy will be ready, the adrenaline should more than make up for the 'lost rest'.

pedro just seems happy to be there (no disrespect to pedro) -- could see him getting rocked tonight but who knows.

look at what Burnett did with 3 days rest!

 

[CartersCubs]

so are these

the team that's scored more runs is a perfect 5-0

the team that's made the last out is 0-5


trends are usually just coincidences and this one is the ultimate coincidence in that doenst help a gambler at all.......and in reality, i'd guess that team with the starter who lasted longer usually wins the game.

Ok and you think Pettitte with 3 days rest will last longer than Pedro with full rest?

 

[tubbysmith]

look at what Burnett did with 3 days rest!

if you've watched good 'ol AJ throughout his career, he's put in a 'game five-like' performance many of times (and on full rest too)

 

[CartersCubs]

Pettitte in his last start gave up 4 ER and now he has less rest which has shown throughout the entire series to increase the ERA of every Yanks pitcher

 

[utesfootball]

But eating pineapple before the game has shown to drop the yanks pitching 1.2 ERA units.....and dear andrew is going to eat some pineapple before the game....so there you have it.

 

[CartersCubs]

But eating pineapple before the game has shown to drop the yanks pitching 1.2 ERA units.....and dear andrew is going to eat some pineapple before the game....so there you have it.

All I am saying is stats. I have yet to express an opinion without them.

1. EVERY GAME - The starter who lasts longer has won every game
2. EVERY GAME - 3 Days rest has shown to increase ERA in every NYY pitcher

 

[KsYaS]

Well in that case Cliff Lee ALSO pitched less inning, 2 less innings than in the first game, he also received 5 more earned runs in the second game than the first game, thats the same number that AJ Burnett received more in the second game away from home, Lee was at home, not in the road.

this thread is silly, looks like you are trying too much for an answer, if you like the Phillies just bet them, but not try to argue this kind of worthless things.

In the other hand usually pitchers are more likelly to get hit away from home, and to go out of the game away from home.

Phillies are against the wall since they lose the first game at home, and when the lose the second one was way worse, so they HAVE TO win to just continue trying is normal that home team is going to be tougher, people rougher and umpire condescendent so just keep the facts and thats it.

 

[CartersCubs]

Based on my numbers I'm going with:

Phillies ML
Over 9.5

Risk 54 to win 232

 

[bleedingpurple]

Good Luck.. I wouldn't call it much of a trend either.. The team who has the starting pitcher last the longest usually wins the game.. That goes for the regular season too... I know what you are saying... Try to finnd the pitcher who will last the longest..

Its a toss up for me but I would agree and lean towards Pedro as well... Hopefully you pull it out, but I don't bet much against the Yanks.

 

[CartersCubs]

Good Luck.. I wouldn't call it much of a trend either.. The team who has the starting pitcher last the longest usually wins the game.. That goes for the regular season too... I know what you are saying... Try to finnd the pitcher who will last the longest..

Its a toss up for me but I would agree and lean towards Pedro as well... Hopefully you pull it out, but I don't bet much against the Yanks.

FINALLY someone understands what I am trying to say. Everyone thinks I'm retarded for saying that the pitcher who lasts longest gets the win. Since that has held true throughout this series I want to find value in tonights matchup. Pedro seems logical so I'm taking the phils.

 

[hammer1]

0 - 41 L TIME !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

0 - 41 L TIME !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Pedro is 0- 41 lifetime if he pees on his locker 3 hrs before game time..word is he did

I'll take the Yanks !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

KNUK KNUK KNUK !!!!!!!!!!!!!!