Only 7 horses have won the Preakness at odds of 15-1 or higher. Only 3 of those 7 have come since WWII.
Expect a formful result Saturday.
Expect a formful result Saturday.
Preakness...
- Thread starter IE
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Kentucky Derby winner American Pharoah draws the #1 post position in Saturday's Preakness.
Last horse to win from #1 - Tabasco Cat in 1994
Last horse to win from #1 - Tabasco Cat in 1994
Pharoah gets the inside post but I don't think it is as bad as people think. he can save ground inside there and if he saves ground he doesnt have to run his best race to win, which he wont, because he was absolutely gassed after the derby.
The good news for him is so was everyone else. Firing Line would be the one to play IMO if you want to beat Pharoah in this race. FL would have won the Derby had he switched leads in the stretch. FL has never raced on this short of a break though, which could be a negative, but he also had 6 weeks rest coming in to the Derby, so he is the most fresh out of the Derby runners.
FL gets the far outside post though so Stevens has to do some work to navigate a decent trip and not get hung wide. Mr Z was sold by the Zayats (owners of Pharoah) so that is why he is entered here, because Zayats were previously not going to run him. I have no idea why he is running here, but if he wings it early he could cause some pace problems as FL and Dortmund will also want to be up close to the lead. Pharoah too, but Pharoah can rate as we have seen.
really does not look like that good of a betting race at all. for me it is go against Pharoah or nothing. I can't back him at 3/5 or 4/5.....but Firing Line will be about 4-1 or lower, so it isn't like there is much value there unless you play for Pharoah to not hit the board at all.
I think the best outcome is a Pharoah win because I give him virtually ZERO chance to win the Belmont, and he will be extremely beatable that day.
Baffert has also been pretty flawless with his Derby winners going into the Preakness....all 3 derby wins came back and won the Preakness.
Not a very playable race for me, but would love the chance to go against Pharoah in the Belmont. He will be in big trouble if he makes it there. Materiality and Carpe Diem are going to be VERY tough in NY.
Another thing to consider if you want to go against Pharoah, he was hit 32 times by Espinoza in the derby, after being hand ridden in his preps this year. It isn't the first time he was hit, but could take a big toll on him.
The field is small enough to take a shot at some exotics and not have it cost too much, just have to hope Pharoah misses the board completely to really cash big.....but I think the best chance to make a big score against him would be in the Belmont if he wins the Preakness.
Firing Line for me though if anything, pending anyone looking terrible this week or on track/in the paddock Saturday.
Can single FL on top over the field in a $1 tri key for $42, or eliminate some of the slugs and make it even cheaper.
GL to all.
The good news for him is so was everyone else. Firing Line would be the one to play IMO if you want to beat Pharoah in this race. FL would have won the Derby had he switched leads in the stretch. FL has never raced on this short of a break though, which could be a negative, but he also had 6 weeks rest coming in to the Derby, so he is the most fresh out of the Derby runners.
FL gets the far outside post though so Stevens has to do some work to navigate a decent trip and not get hung wide. Mr Z was sold by the Zayats (owners of Pharoah) so that is why he is entered here, because Zayats were previously not going to run him. I have no idea why he is running here, but if he wings it early he could cause some pace problems as FL and Dortmund will also want to be up close to the lead. Pharoah too, but Pharoah can rate as we have seen.
really does not look like that good of a betting race at all. for me it is go against Pharoah or nothing. I can't back him at 3/5 or 4/5.....but Firing Line will be about 4-1 or lower, so it isn't like there is much value there unless you play for Pharoah to not hit the board at all.
I think the best outcome is a Pharoah win because I give him virtually ZERO chance to win the Belmont, and he will be extremely beatable that day.
Baffert has also been pretty flawless with his Derby winners going into the Preakness....all 3 derby wins came back and won the Preakness.
Not a very playable race for me, but would love the chance to go against Pharoah in the Belmont. He will be in big trouble if he makes it there. Materiality and Carpe Diem are going to be VERY tough in NY.
Another thing to consider if you want to go against Pharoah, he was hit 32 times by Espinoza in the derby, after being hand ridden in his preps this year. It isn't the first time he was hit, but could take a big toll on him.
The field is small enough to take a shot at some exotics and not have it cost too much, just have to hope Pharoah misses the board completely to really cash big.....but I think the best chance to make a big score against him would be in the Belmont if he wins the Preakness.
Firing Line for me though if anything, pending anyone looking terrible this week or on track/in the paddock Saturday.
Can single FL on top over the field in a $1 tri key for $42, or eliminate some of the slugs and make it even cheaper.
GL to all.
I could not agree more....best outcome is AP wins again Saturday and we can get some value on one of Pletcher's horses....even though Carpe Diem seemed to back up in the Derby, he actually stayed on pretty well after being hustled away, which would have been very new to him. Materiality is looming pretty large in New York right now as well.
Something else to look at for Saturday - there is a guaranteed $1.5M Pick 4 pool starting in Race 10 and ending with the Preakness....sequence includes 2 overnight stakes for 3yos, the G2 Dixie and the Preakness. If you single AP, you are down to a Pick 3 and I am pretty high on War Correspondent and Long on Value in the Dixie, so there is opportunity to spread out in the first couple legs. I may also play a couple thin back up tickets with FL, Dortmund and Danzig Moon. That's likely the way I will play it.
Good Luck Guys.
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http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...015-race-lines-and-post-positions-for-pimlico
Preakness Odds 2015: Race Lines and Post Positions for Pimlico
Preakness Odds 2015: Race Lines and Post Positions for Pimlico
can certainly make a case against Pharoah in the Preakness, but the problem is having such a small field even if he gets beat, he would really need to finish off the board completely and throw a huge clunker to have some decent payoffs.
being down on the inside is interesting. Dortmund to his right is going to go for the lead. Mr Z outside of Dortmund I have a feeling is just going to go for it and try to wire the race. Mr Z has not run any figures that would put him anywhere in contention of winning this race but he has early speed and can be a pace factor.
if Pharoah doesn't break well it could be a problem. the last thing they want is to get pinned in down at the rail all the way around, which could happen if things dont go his way. the other jocks should keep him pinned down there if they see this develop.
Dortmund seems to be throwing consistent efforts but hasnt really took a step forward recently, so off 2 weeks rest I don't see him making a forward move. most of these wont. problem is, the top 3 can move backwards and still win this race because they are that much better than the bottom end of this field.
Danzig Moon will be on everyones radar as a price, but he has run his eyeballs out lately. he has developed A LOT since his 2 yr old campaign and another move forward is EXTREMELY unlikely. if he got a ground saving trip and matched his Derby effort, he could be there, but he would need a lot of things to go right. Mark Casse has really been moving his horses up with big efforts lately, and Moon ran good in the Derby, but another forward move on such short rest is really not something I would expect.
that again leaves me on Firing Line. he has an outside post, but if you want to be up on the pace, I would rather have Stevens navigating a trip out there than risk being pinned down on the rail. especially if the rail is not the place to be that day....you never know. a wide trip isn't the greatest thing in the world but if he can go into the 1st turn about 2 wide and lay off the pace slightly, that would be huge. Stevens is a very smart rider....he stole the Preakness with Oxbow a few years back just coasting wire to wire. very intelligent and knows what he is doing. has the smarts and the talent. lot of jockeys lack the smarts and give some awful rides.
fact is, the main contenders are all bounce candidates after running big in the derby. the question is, who will bounce the least. even with backward moves, these top 3 are head and shoulders above the rest of the field.
cant say it enough, it is a damn shame the field is so small. 7/2 or 4/1 on firing Line is not the value you want, but in a 3 horse race, it isnt terrible.
normally definitely a PASS race, but hey, it is the preakness. I would love to see Pharoah win and then take a big stand against him in the Belmont, but if he loses the Preakness and throws in a huge clunker not hitting the board, there goes a lost opportunity for a decent score.
the pick 5 as sharky mentioned is a decent wager. a hard one, but a fun one to play. the turf sprint is always a tough one to figure out, lots can go wrong and right in those crazy races.
any idea of a p5 sharky? just quickly glancing over the pp's id go with
R9- 1,8,10
R10- 4,7
R11- 2,4
R12- 2,9,13
R13- 1,8
The Pick 5 has a $500K guaranteed pool and I believe 12% takeout which is the industry low, so some good value in it....pretty tough to get, but $0.50 minimum at least makes it somewhat affordable.
The first leg looks real tough to me, and I agree with Airportis - the turf sprints quite often go any way.
This is more than I would want to spend, but here would be my Pick 5 ticket:
R9 - 1,7,8,9,10,11
R10 - 1,7,9....I actually really like the 9 in this spot @ 6-1 morning line.....Asumussen's horses have been razor sharp at Churchill....this guy looks fast
R11 - 2,5,6,7
R12 - 12, 13
R13 - 1
The first leg looks real tough to me, and I agree with Airportis - the turf sprints quite often go any way.
This is more than I would want to spend, but here would be my Pick 5 ticket:
R9 - 1,7,8,9,10,11
R10 - 1,7,9....I actually really like the 9 in this spot @ 6-1 morning line.....Asumussen's horses have been razor sharp at Churchill....this guy looks fast
R11 - 2,5,6,7
R12 - 12, 13
R13 - 1
I'm not sure....I think he's just a notch below AP, Dortmund, FL and even Danzig Moon, and I really don't think they are going to regress that much. I've been way wrong before, so this could be an interesting option.
:toast:
Diving Rod is the price horse to play IMO, I just dont think he will be the 20-1 morning line. He will be a good price but he should get some play since the field is so small and he won the Lexington impressively.
He jumped way up when he added lasix for the first time, and then had a bit of a bounce but got back to that level in the Lexington. With the time off, a forward move is what I would be playing for. Problem is, he just starts out a notch below these others. Delacour has been a hot trainer recently, and spring time is when you usually see 3 year old horses improve....all signs point to him taking a step forward, just depends how big of a jump it is.
This race historically though has a lot of favoritism to Derby runners. That doesn't put me off Diving Rod, but that is just how it has played out. The thing with Diving Rod is though, they were aiming for this race. They didnt try and squeeze into the Derby after getting points for winning the Lexington. With a good trip and a good forward move, I would say he has a chance if the others regress.
Depending on his odds he will probably be the best bet if he is around 15-1. There is a lot that can go wrong for Pharoah and playing him at 3/5 or 4/5 is crazy.
I will have Diving Rod on some tickets, smaller ones, and hope that Pharoah doesn't hit the board. Even you play Diving Rod across the board and he hits somewhere, if Pharoah throws a huge clunker the payoffs should be decent. Lots of place and show money will be thrown down on Pharoah.
Of the non derby runners, Diving Rod is by far the next best option, IMO. I even like him over Dortmund, as Dortmund is likely to regress a little and at best, stay the same, where as Diving Rod has the big chance to move forward. He will need a lot of things to go right but Diving Rod hitting the board seems like a pretty good chance to me.
GL
just double checked after I posted because 20-1 didnt sound right....diving Rod is 12-1 morning line and the #7
#5 is Tale of Verve and he is 30-1 morning line.
Gonna throw $106 at it. Here's my ticket.
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This ticket should get the money
Trifecta Box.........1,2,4,7,8
Hopefully the 1 or the 2 do not win
Good luck everyone:toast:
Trifecta Box.........1,2,4,7,8
Hopefully the 1 or the 2 do not win
Good luck everyone:toast:
opcorn2the torrential rain 10 mins before post obliterated any chance FL had. wow. talk about a picture perfect setup for Pharoah. track was fast about 10 minutes before the start of the race. :facepalm:
was able to hit the P5 and include sharkys horse in the 2nd leg since the 4th leg had the big fav scratch out. so :0008 for that sharky.
still think Pharoah has not much of a chance to win the Belmont. those horses resting and taking this one off are gonna be real tough in NY.
was able to hit the P5 and include sharkys horse in the 2nd leg since the 4th leg had the big fav scratch out. so :0008 for that sharky.
still think Pharoah has not much of a chance to win the Belmont. those horses resting and taking this one off are gonna be real tough in NY.
