Public betting on SB

[Jord20]

From a site...

Super Bowl XLVII kicks off at 6:30 PM eastern time next Sunday, with the San Francisco 49ers taking on the Baltimore Ravens. According to our Super Bowl betting trends, the 49ers opened as 5-point favorites at Pinnacle and are currently receiving just 39% of spread bets. This lopsided public Super Bowl betting has moved the line 1.5 points to -3.5.

While this split may not seem immense, the 39% of spread bets received by San Francisco would tie for the most lopsided bet Super Bowl game in our database. Back in 2008, the line movement was actually quite similar when the previously undefeated Patriots received just 39% of spread bets as 14-point favorites against the New York Giants. Once again, the line dropped 1.5 points (this time to -12.5) and the Pats not only failed to cover the spread, but also lost the game straight up.

The table below, with line data taken from Pinnacle, shows Super Bowl betting trends for each of the past ten years. The team that covered the spread is highlighted in bold. Overs have been italicized.
Super Bowl Favorite Underdog Opening Line Closing Line Fav Betting % Closing Total Final
XXXVIII New England Carolina NE -6.5 NE -7 49% 37.5 32-29 NE
XXXIX New England Philadelphia NE -6 NE -7 55% 47 24-21 NE
XL Pittsburgh Seattle Pitt -3 Pitt -4 49% 46.5 21-10 Pitt
XLI Indianapolis Chicago Indy -6 Indy -6.5 47% 47 29-17 Indy
XLII New England NY Giants NE -14 NE -12.5 39% 54.5 17-14 NY
XLIII Pittsburgh Arizona Pitt -3 Pitt -6.5 44% 46.5 27-23 Pitt
XLIV Indianapolis New Orleans Indy -3.5 Indy -4.5 53% 56.5 31-17 NO
XLV Green Bay Pittsburgh Pick ?Em GB -3 49% 44.5 31-25 GB
XLVI New England NY Giants NE -3.5 NE -3 47% 53 21-17 NY
XLVII San Francisco Baltimore SF -5 SF -3.5 39% 47.5 ?

As you can see, underdogs have fared quite well in the Super Bowl, with dogs covering the spread in 6 of the past 9 games. The biggest difference between the Super Bowl and regular season NFL games is likely the public perception.

During the regular season, it is extremely rare to see an underdog receive a majority of public bets. Historically, casual bettors love betting on overs and favorites, but that clearly changes in the Super Bowl. No favorite has received more than 55% of spread bets, and that was in Super Bowl XXXIX where the defending champion Patriots (-7) knocked off the Panthers 24-21, but failed to cover the spread.

Pertaining to the total, the Super Bowl has been relatively low scoring over the past few years with the under hitting in six of the past nine games (although since it?s inception the under is just 23-22). That said, we detailed earlier this week why there may be some value on the under this year.

We will continue to monitor these Super Bowl betting percentages in the days leading up to the game, so make sure check in with us for the most up-to-date information and analysis.

 

[rrc]

I'm not sure that was public betting that moved the line.

I think the smart money guys saw value at +5 and saw an opportunity to come back over the top at 3.5 or maybe even 3.

Just my opinion.

 

[DZ]

I'm not sure that was public betting that moved the line.

I think the smart money guys saw value at +5 and saw an opportunity to come back over the top at 3.5 or maybe even 3.

Just my opinion.

Agreed.


Here's an interesting article I found on ESPN regarding prop bets on Kaepernick. Seems like there should be some value in Vegas on the unders in those bets because he went to Nevada.'

http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/201...aepernick-san-francisco-49ers-most-bet-player

People betting on Colin Kaepernick
By Darren Rovell

San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick might just become the most-bet-on player in Super Bowl history. That's at least according to longtime Vegas insider Jimmy Vaccaro of William Hill, which has 75 full-service properties in the state of Nevada.

Due to the fact that Kaepernick played his college ball in Reno at the University of Nevada, Vaccaro says people in the state can't wait to place a prop bet on him.

"We put 10 props on him last week and generated more than $100,000 in bets," Vaccaro said. "To put that in perspective, a good prop is when you can draw $2,500 to $5,000 in bets."

William Hill will post at least 20 props on Kaepernick for the Super Bowl. Current props include: Will Kaepernick have 100 yards rushing and 300 yards passing? Who will have more: Kaepernick pass attempts or LeBron points scored versus the Raptors? What will Kaepernick throw first: a touchdown or an interception?

Vaccaro says the most-bet-on player he has seen since prop bets were invented for Super Bowl XX is Peyton Manning.

"But I've never seen interest on prop bets like I've seen with Kaepernick," Vaccaro said. "We think we can do $300,000 in Kaepernick prop bets alone, and that's a conservative estimate. No one has ever come close to that number."

 

[Scrapman]

ya know what everyone is forgetting?

Before Ravens upset Patriots the AFC was - 3 points to win the Superbowl

so it flops 180 NFC favored opened -5

wakeeeee up people

i belive in bad Karma and ravens will get paid back by it!

it's strong universal force magnetic forces all coming together on a person

controlled by the mystical powers at places like stonehedge.

NOT the GOD powers of the holy trinity these are astroliigcal powers our bio rhythms that follow us through our lives it's why sometimes you fell like shit and other days like 50-50 and other days supercharged to tackle the world

hard to explain but i have used bio rhythm charts to win games it's hard because you have to every key player in NBA and NFL base ball just starting pitchers and bull pen

 

[MadJack]

ya know what everyone is forgetting?

Before Ravens upset Patriots the AFC was - 3 points to win the Superbowl

so it flops 180 NFC favored opened -5

wakeeeee up people

i belive in bad Karma and ravens will get paid back by it!

it's strong universal force magnetic forces all coming together on a person

controlled by the mystical powers at places like stonehedge.

NOT the GOD powers of the holy trinity these are astroliigcal powers our bio rhythms that follow us through our lives it's why sometimes you fell like shit and other days like 50-50 and other days supercharged to tackle the world

hard to explain but i have used bio rhythm charts to win games it's hard because you have to every key player in NBA and NFL base ball just starting pitchers and bull pen

That line was based on the Pats being there and a lot of people fell for it and lost.

You should really take off the blinders and look at the Ravens more clearly.

You see how the sharps bet it down within a few hours.

The "public" won't be betting until Saturday and Sunday.