Rookie here... . . but not at this stuff

[Jimboski]

Actually, I've been a member for awhile and posted tennis plays (usually my best sport) and college BB plays before. College, NOT NFL, football is still one of my favorites. Just in case somebody wants to "play along", here's a little about how I pickem:

Wish I could name the players and the formations, key players, and team histories like some of the seasoned cappers around here. Instead, I'm a statistics type. But I DO watch as many games as I can and use what I SEE, not what I read, for picking teams along with what my nos. tell me. But it's a new method that that primarily uses the stats part, that I found late last year thats REALLY got me anxious this time around. Thought I'd be "ready" to murder da bums after the third week this season but I'm finding out that ain't gonna happen cause I need at least 3 more weeks of data. You know, team A plays two cellar dwellers and a Fla. or a Bama... and their opponent this week played 3 poor excuses for a college FB team. Now get out the calculator and figure that one out:shrug:

I just went ahead and used that method that worked so well last year for this week just to get warmed up and make sure I still remember all the steps. Hours of figuring, even using the puter. It comes up with a few VERY strong plays ESP. the first play I listed below. Even though I really can't put FULL confidence in these - I think they are worthwhile even without the number crunchin thingy....

New Mexico State M.L. @ +375 : Doesn't take a computer to see that the Aggies come up very strong considering the kind of competition they faced and the Hobos did poorly vs. the heavy hitters they faced. But isn't that like State practicing their plays vs. high schoolers for 3 weeks while NM was just banging their head against a wall for 3 weeks? And look how NM did even with the handicap (line). Hah, every game they were DOUBLE DIGITS from covering! Yeah, they'll be home this time but the way I see it - their home advantage isn't that great in their case. Aggies get very strong figures on almost every factor I use and there's plenty of factors. AND it's an intrastate game... LUV that part.

For me - at least one unit on the M.L. and more on the +9 side play.

Here's some other games I'll be on this week. Most are small plays. My nos. agree strongly on these as well: :

Air Force -15 1/2: so/so on this one.

S. Carolina +3 1/2: ditto

Central Fla +10: Oh yeeah.

Rutgers -2 1-2: that's what I got and right now, it's still at that line.

Stanford -6: I had to buy a pt., but I think it could go to -6 anyway. I didn't take any chance cause I like this one quite a bit.

Zona +2

Monroe +3 1/2: don't need to buy a thing.

Braska -28

DO come back in a month
Then I really get serious.(I'd really love to tellyas what my record was for the last 2 weeks + Bowl weeks last yr., but nobody would believe me or EVER read my posts again. I don't see that record happening for me again this year (or any future year neither), but if I can do about half as well (really)l... well, I'll be one happy camper.

Good Luck this week everybody.:

 

[mw]

Good luck this week.

 

[LDB]

GL BUDDY

 

[Jimboski]

Some reasons for one of the picks

Some reasons for one of the picks

Man, this is living - after I posted I had a quick chat with somebody here, turn around.. and 15 views already in something like 3 mins..:scared

Just got back online and almost 100 views and two well wishers, WOW. Thanks LDB and mw.
(BTW, I did post those "tremendous" plays I wrote about last season at a different forum.)

I guess this thing is gonna jump to the top of the list, Ugh. Sooo... I better write something more worthwhile here. How bout some comments on one of the picks?

Arizona +2 vs. Oregon St.

At the beginning of the season I think it's a good idea to see how many returning players each squad return for some more "fun", banging heads, for another year. For Zona, a well balanced 14 (7 off/7def) return. Now, for Ore. State - get this -> 7 off. and only 3 stinkin defenders! BUT, the field levels out a bit when you consider Zona's QB, who came into his own last season, AND their star (all time leading pass catcher) don't return. Still... ONLY 3 defenders for Oregon St.!

Take a look at each team's last game and you'll see that the Wildcats played Iowa pretty closely. I rank that Iowa team much higher than the experts. Zona put up 17 in Iowa against that defensive powerhouse. Yeah, Seven Teen! Doesn't look like much, but ask the players on the last five teams that faced them if they could do better. They couldn't and they weren't cream puffs either. You have to go back to Nov. 8, 2008 to find a team that could... .. and that team was PENN STATE. Thems put up 23.

Almost forgot to mention that State put up 18 vs. Cinn on their home turf in their last game.

Zona has some very nice "playing habits" out there as well. I only checked back as far as their last 5 games and they turned over the ball...er, ZERO times. They also commit fewer than average penalties.

Lastly, a look at the head to heads for these two - hmmm, O.St. is 9-1 ATS. :scared
But, Zona is getting closer and closer to getting one mo ATSer to make it an even 2
Last year, score was 17-19. AND this is the first time between these two that Zona has the home field twice in a row. I kinda like that angle.

Thanks again for stopping in, visitors.

 

[Jimboski]

No mo additons after these... promise

No mo additons after these... promise

I've been watching the lines, injuries, and studied my nos. again. No big changes, but DO check out the additions:

Adding:

TENNESSEE - 23: Iit was a borderline play and I should have posted it with the others cause I just knew I was gonna go for it. It's a STRONG play.

Notre Dame -6: That AIN'T the line right now, it's -7. I'll jump on it like a guy named Tyson jumped on them young chicks if it does go to -6. If not, I'm buying whatever I need to to get them at -6,

I don't visit this place regularly, but I got the notion that some MadJackers follow first time posters sometimes. Must be one of them superstitious things. I certainly DON'T recommend that, but if if there are any of those types here.... these are the ones I think are the best:

NEW MEX. STATE
MONROE
TENN

SORRY, I gotta mention this but there was another play that I didn't mention. It was on a different piece of paper (I had my Saturday sheet in front of me when I posted the initial plays). And YES, I forgot about it when I shoulda been playing it for real too.
It was S. Carolina.... DAMN. And it was a as strong as any too. Ugh! That ain't the first time thats happened to me and I just had to vent it out here. In fact, that's one of the reasons I made sure I got back here to at least get that Tenn. play posted BEFORE that game.

Gonna be a fun day tomorrow, enjoy.

 

[Hersh24]

Good luck Jimbo, welcome to MJ's College Football side.

 

[Jimboski]

thanks for the visit

thanks for the visit

Appreciate support from seasoned (2004) players, Hersh.

GOOD LUCK to you this weekend too.:00hour

A little more about the TENN play - my preferences for backing heavy favorites are teams that are a little on the ruthless side. You know, keep the pedal to the metal types... kinda like a Nebraska. I don't believe the Vols are that kind of team. But, they have such huge advantages across the board over such a weak team (I believe Ohio is weaker then most others believe) that it's almost a case where they just can't help pulverizing da bums. I think that tough loss to that "invincible" Gator team is gonna help tomorrow also.

ALL SYSTEMS are a GO. No changes. LIFTOFF in about 16 hours

 

[Jimboski]

Scatter brain is back

Scatter brain is back

Ya know, I JUST stopped back to see how my posts are doing and I cannot believe (actually I CAN believe) what I wrote in my last post about NOT posting S. Carolina.... I did, I did , I did. (that's the answer to the question," I thware I thor a putty cat", BTW". Came from a stupid cartoon that I saw a LONG time ago that just stuck in my head. :mj07: .

Sheesh, well I WAS right about NOT getting that play in - I just forgot about it.

Looks like it's gonna be a decent weekend cause my weekend ends Sunday MORNING. Tomorrow is NFLers and, like baseball - I don't like throwing darts.

Looking forward to the game that shoulda just started (New Mexico St.) mostly to see if my number cruncher is getting close to ready for me to be sending it in on IT'S picks. I see a few people writing how BAD they are.. like, "REALLY suck". I gotta see for myself.

Sometimes comments about a game AFTER they played is more helpful to folks than the one's at pick time. Watched the Memphis/Marshall game... .. comments are:
- looks like each of them has ONE very good running back and very little of anything else. The IMPORTANT thing that I will keep in mind is to - avoid both of these teams. BOTH teams are very inconsistent. You know, play like world beaters for a spell and look like bums for a spell. They play in spurts. Memphis QB, Bass, runs very hot and cold. :nono: Looked to me like both made bad/stupid decisions (coaching?) too, ESP> Memphis. Basically, neither is a bettors friend.

I don't mark or even keep tract of my plays, just study them REAL good, do the fancy stat. work with the data, post them if I can. and just watch the ole bankeroo. Right now it's looking pretty good. I don't mind anybody marking the results for them though - whether its a good OR a bad week.

Hope I can get around to posting again next week. Right now, the picks are 60% number cruncher results and 40% ME. DO come back in about 4 or 5 more weeks - I believe that is when the fun is REALLY gonna start cause the picks will be 100% number cruncher results and I'll be out of the picture so I don't mess anything up. I will adjust the play size though if the pick is a team that I am really (saw them play more than once) familiar with. I NEVER play against it's pick though, no matter how I feel about the teams.

Good luck tomorrow, MJers.

Damn, Vols game just ended and they failed to cover. Sheeet, that was one of my bigger plays too.

 

[Jimboski]

Let's try this one mo time

Let's try this one mo time



OK, lets see, ..... . . where were we. Oh yeah, New Mex. State

Well, that was a couple of weeks ago and that result made week 5 turn out to be a "better than decent" day (like I wrote before that last game of the weekend started).

Over 600 views :scared

3 (I think) "Good Lucks", thanks for letting me know you guys were here.

But, zero comments (GOOD or BAD) before or after any of the games (Win or Lose)

Zero ideas or thoughts, before any of the games. :shrug:
That's disappointing.

Heck, if any of the viewers are a little gun shy about starting a new thread - put yer picks here if ya want causel, at least they'll get viewed for whatever reason so many viewers checked them out last time. Better yet, if anybody wants to know how my nos. look for a particular game - I'll be glad to reply IF I get to see what game you're curious about. I usually check in here around mid-day on Sat. so I should be able to reply for the late afternoon games and surely the night action. I do work out ALL the games and the ones I post/play are the ones that are the strongest plays.

Last week

Didn't post anything. It was another good week and it's upset special won but at much less odds than that New Mex. State deal the week before. The "nos." bestest of the best play was N. Illinois and they covered VERY easily. Sorry, I don't keep exact records of my win %. I just keep an eye on the ole bankaroo. Hell, working out these stats. is more than enough figuring for me.

If anybody's interested, here's this weeks plays. I'm gonna skip the reasons/writeup part cause it's a lot of typing and I'm thinking viewers are only interested in the plays. Like - just check it off on their clipboards and hit the road. :mj07:

DO KNOW that these were figured out with the same painstakingly, grueling efforts I use for every week's plays. You know, like

Boston College +13 1/2: for whatever reason, the figures comes up with this team every week? Don't like the line went from +13 to 13 1/2 though. I'm holding off on this one; personally - I just don't care for it. But, IT IS rated as a STRONG PLAY which is why I posted it. Sure won't be the first time the nos. beat me.

Syracuse +10: This one's an "Oh yeeeah" play ESP. if ya buy a half pt. to make it 10 1/2 like I did.

Indiana + 6/2: Well, sorry but I gotta tellyas I got it at +7. Line musta moved since last night. BTW, this one comes up as the "Upset Special" (as in - play the Money Line at much better odds). This thing (my number crunching thingy I made) hit two of these type plays in a row so far and missed NONE. For me, I ain't gonna push my luck. Sooo I'm taking the points this time. Now, that just might persuade some of yas to do ... .. well,"you know what". kurby

UTEP -2 1/2: Coulda swore I saw it at -3 when the lines came out. Don't like the line movement. Still, I'm gonna hit this one pretty good cause it's rated as the "bestest of the day" thang.

Fresno St. -9: Another strong play. Puter tells me to be careful about the Turnover problem for this matchup though. Everything (and there's plenty of things, too) else looks A-OK for this game.

Hope some MJers keep me interested cause I do believe that the formulas just get better and better as the season progresses. Next time I post I'll start a new thread. Not looking to score big on views and now I know that there's at least 600 of yas that know I ain't no rookie anymore.

Good Luck this weekend, y'awl.

 

[ageecee]

Actually, I've been a member for awhile and posted tennis plays (usually my best sport) and college BB plays before. College, NOT NFL, football is still one of my favorites. Just in case somebody wants to "play along", here's a little about how I pickem:

Wish I could name the players and the formations, key players, and team histories like some of the seasoned cappers around here. Instead, I'm a statistics type. But I DO watch as many games as I can and use what I SEE, not what I read, for picking teams along with what my nos. tell me. But it's a new method that that primarily uses the stats part, that I found late last year thats REALLY got me anxious this time around. Thought I'd be "ready" to murder da bums after the third week this season but I'm finding out that ain't gonna happen cause I need at least 3 more weeks of data. You know, team A plays two cellar dwellers and a Fla. or a Bama... and their opponent this week played 3 poor excuses for a college FB team. Now get out the calculator and figure that one out:shrug:

I just went ahead and used that method that worked so well last year for this week just to get warmed up and make sure I still remember all the steps. Hours of figuring, even using the puter. It comes up with a few VERY strong plays ESP. the first play I listed below. Even though I really can't put FULL confidence in these - I think they are worthwhile even without the number crunchin thingy....

New Mexico State M.L. @ +375 : Doesn't take a computer to see that the Aggies come up very strong considering the kind of competition they faced and the Hobos did poorly vs. the heavy hitters they faced. But isn't that like State practicing their plays vs. high schoolers for 3 weeks while NM was just banging their head against a wall for 3 weeks? And look how NM did even with the handicap (line). Hah, every game they were DOUBLE DIGITS from covering! Yeah, they'll be home this time but the way I see it - their home advantage isn't that great in their case. Aggies get very strong figures on almost every factor I use and there's plenty of factors. AND it's an intrastate game... LUV that part.

For me - at least one unit on the M.L. and more on the +9 side play.

Here's some other games I'll be on this week. Most are small plays. My nos. agree strongly on these as well: :

Air Force -15 1/2: so/so on this one.

S. Carolina +3 1/2: ditto

Central Fla +10: Oh yeeah.

Rutgers -2 1-2: that's what I got and right now, it's still at that line.

Stanford -6: I had to buy a pt., but I think it could go to -6 anyway. I didn't take any chance cause I like this one quite a bit.

Zona +2

Monroe +3 1/2: don't need to buy a thing.

Braska -28

DO come back in a month
Then I really get serious.(I'd really love to tellyas what my record was for the last 2 weeks + Bowl weeks last yr., but nobody would believe me or EVER read my posts again. I don't see that record happening for me again this year (or any future year neither), but if I can do about half as well (really)l... well, I'll be one happy camper.

Good Luck this week everybody.:

damn dude you had a helluva week that weekend

 

[HighFlyingKilla]

Fresno is going take its frustration of losing all those close games to good teams this week. Hawaii is the perfect recipe for that.

Might want to look at Uconn, Purdue , Wisky and FIU.

 

[Jimboski]

Thanks for the replies

Thanks for the replies

Yes it was, AGC. Best thing was that I never would take a shot, a REAL PLAY that is, with a double digit dog on the money line. After seeing how this statistical method I dreamed up did last year I DID take a shot with that NM State play and feel great about it. Stay tuned, cause if history repeats itself - you ain't seen nuthin yet.

HFK, I agree with you. Personally, I think the UTEP, Indiana, and FRESNO plays are the better ones.

Let's see ..... ... checking.... .. . OK, here ya go::

UConn.: nos. tell me that the line should be -10, but Pitt should fail to cover. Interpretation = NO PLAY.

PURDUE : should be getting 1 1/2 and Minn should cover that spread. Means pretty much NO PLAY.

WISC: Too much to explain what this homemade thing is trying to say. Pretty much it says that Wisc. is a play, but a weak play.

FIU: BYW, MY opinion is that this team is underrated by the oddsmakers. I get their games (ESPN 360) and I've watched two of their games this season. They ain't bad at all. But around here - the Number Cruncher RULES. It says that they should be -3 1/2 and they should cover fairly comfortably. That is a SOLID play which is not as good as a STRONG play. No, I ain't on them cause, for the weakest schools like each of these - I prefer to have more than 4 weeks of data to substantiate the play. Both teams have "sketchy" data. NO QUESTION if that was the only play tomorrow - I would be on them.

Thanks again REPLIERS.

 

[oceanguy]

wow :00hour quite the week :00hour

wish you continued success and would like to hear more about your number crunching method, if you are so inclined

 

[Jimboski]

TANKS a million, guys

TANKS a million, guys

I didn't realize how many replies I actually had and best of all they ALL were from classy folks. I sure hope the little time it took you to "sign in" pays off.

Oceanguy (OG) it's your lucky day :142smilie cause I got plenty of time and certainly look forward to sharing. UNFORTUNATELY for you - I'm also in the mood to do a little .. blah, blah, blahing. So be prepared to go to sleep soon cause I'm gonna bore the hell outa ya.

The cruncher employs some pretty heavy duty poopies and it would take a book to explain it all. Stuff like regression analysis, confidence intervals, margin of errors, etc. BOTTOM LINE is that these statistical tools should NOT WORK for things like picking a sports winner. They DO work for scientific analysis. Pretty much, the more advanced statistical procedures you employ for this stuff - the more you would be wasting your time. Like I got my B.S. (stands for Bull Shit), decided not to go for my M.S. (More Shit) and forget about getting my Ph. D (Piled High and Deep). These references would apply to how far you'd get by using more and more of brains to pick sports winners.

Here's the examples to make this a little clearer...

There's at least 7 major substances/chemicals in cigarettes (these are called the INDEPENDENT VARIABLES). Now, one bad thing that happens to all of us is the loss of lung capacity as we age. But, we know it's worser for ciggie smokers.

YOU CAN do the analysis for this kind of study to see what effect the amount of each chemical each brand of cigarette has and the effect of each on the percentage loss of lung capacity on the smoker (this is the DEPENDANT VARIABLE). The results of the stat. analysis would tell you the effect of EACH chemical toward causing lost capacity. So, the next time you go out to buy some smokes - get the specs. (hah, yeah first you gotta find them and that's the HARD PART) and buy the brand with lesser amounts of bad stuff, starting with the worst one (prob. nicotine).

Well, you can TRY the same "tricks" to assign things like yards/game for and against, margin of victories/losses, passing yds./game, running yds./game, penalty yds for/against, etc. etc. as the Ind. Variables. And assign the margin (ATS) as the Dep. Variable (ONE variable). There's much more to it, but that the basic idea.

(Man, I'm starting to get sorry I started this thang. Anybody still here?)

I always loved statistics and math and thought I'd make believe i would be accomplishing something by employing it in picking college FB winners. It took me quite awhile to setup everything and I was ready to see what happens at two weeks before the Bowls started last season. I've already written how good the results were - TREMENDOUS (and the genius, me, was only betting one or two units for those last two weeks). I did step it up for the Bowls, like 3 and a few 5 unit plays (yeah, another genius move, not hitting them harder after seeing how well it did the previous two week :mj1: ). I ain't gonna even tellyas the results I had with my 12 Bowl Game plays cause that would open the doors to this this thread to the riff raff members.

I'm gonna spare you the misery of adding more to this, BUT I do want this to be worth your visit. Here are some things that I offer as ideas. I use these to filter the results from the Cruncher's results and might be interest to yas....

- use the Statfox preseason ratings for each team facing each other and employ the next step.... . .

- for teams that YOU'VE seen at least twice, adjust the Statfox rating based on what YOU saw. Frinstance - Iowa is rated 51. I add 10% ( I really LIKED what I saw) to make it 56. And you should also adjust downward as well for the stink bomb teams. Add these nos. up for each team facing each other today and consider the difference. Ignore the A2 and worser opponent teams.

- Also, add the MARGIN that the team beat or lost to the line for every game they played this year. That should give you a good handle on how well the oddsmaker assesses the team. The higher the sum of these margins - the better.

-One variable that you don't need to do any fancy stuff with is TURNOVER MARGINS. Give credit to to the more positive team. (My stats stuff says this is an important factor).

- Try to stick with teams that played similar rated teams as their opponent (today's oponent). When you look at who each of today's team faced so far - DON'T ever consider games vs. A2 (you know, secondary level teams) like Ga. Southern, Citadel, Ivy Leaguers, etc.

- IF you look at stuff like Passing Yds. (against/for) and Running Yds. (against/for) - pay more attention to the difference in the RUNNING nos. even if neither team is strictly a running OR passing team. For whatever reason, the stats tell me that Running difference are a bit more important than Passing even if it doesn't make much sense to us mortals??

REMEMBER, the fancy stuff should NOT work.. but, we're gonna ride it for as long as it does.

Let the games begin!

Oops, almost forgot... here's something that the clipboarders may be interested in:

Arkansas +3 is a borderline Strong Play according to the Cruncher. I didn't postem cause I've almost always had (past years) bad luck with this team and I don't care for the way they play. If they were solidly a STRONG play, I would play them this week no matter what though. Just know that Iif you're thinking about going with them - you got the Cruncher rooting forya.

 

[rubiconed]

Thanks for posting, and GL today !!! :mj06:

 

[Jimboski]

Yum Yum

Yum Yum

That bad ass would MAKE my weekend.

 

[rubiconed]

That bad ass would MAKE my weekend.

We have Sanford Bikefest this weekend, and Biketoberfest next week !!! Plenty of great views ... Cabbage Patch, here I come !!! :00hour

 

[Jimboski]

Question for a football player or coach

Question for a football player or coach

Now don't run away yet cause THERE IS A PLAY here; see the bottom.

Now, Tebow did have his helmet on during that incident and the helmet does cover the back of your head. I know there is only air between the the back of your head and the helmet itself. But still, there is protection there (the helmet). AND I know the other guy had knee protectors on but they are pretty thin pads. I notice that the short pants they wear actually leaves the knee exposed anyway. You mean you could actually get a concussion despite all this? I'm not doubting it but still wondering how that could have caused such an injury.

Oh, and what about that dude who got his knee nailed with the back of Tebow's helmet? That guy had to be one Hurtin Gator.

Ok, one ass burner (Cuse) so far. And what's up with that Indiana game? If something way out of the ordinary happened like maybe a key Indiana player coming out of the game or something like that it would be excusable. But the Cruncher has some explaining to do if that wasn't the case. WTF?

So, it's time for plan B (which usually works)..... ... .

Like I wrote before - no big plays until I have some more data to feed the Cruncher. All plays got 2 units. Fortunately, two of the bestest plays are late games and I cannot believe I'll get skunked on both. Sooo..

Adding 3 Units to the UTEP play. Right now the line is -1 1/2. That makes it a 5 unit play.

IF Utep fails to cover, then adding 5 stinkin units to the Fresno (-10 1/2) making it 7 and buying one stinkin pt. to make it -9 1/2 (a Degenerate Special).

IF both plays lose, I gotta whip that Cruncher's ass tonight.

Oh, congrats to the clipboarders on the Arkansas play. And congrats to me on skipping the Bost. College play.

Hang in there.

 

[Jimboski]

Sorry bout this

Sorry bout this

Sorry, but since this thing jumps to the top of the listing whenever you add something and it's up at the top now - I might as well put up a parlay I have going. I play a few parlays ON MY OWN usually for only one stinkin unit. Almost always include a tennis play since Dimes is really liberal with their parlay offers.

It's a one stinkin unit WINS 7+:

Pending 5 Team Parlay
Pending 10/11/09 4:15pm NFL Football 419 New England Patriots -2? -135 vs Denver Broncos
Pending 10/10/09 4:00pm College Football 316 NC State -620 vs Duke
Pending 10/10/09 8:00pm College Football 385 Michigan/Iowa Under 51? -200
Pending 10/10/09 11:00pm College Football 395 Fresno State -10 -120 vs Hawaii
Pending 10/10/09 7:00pm College Football 397 Florida International -220 vs Western Kentucky

Yes, I bought plenty on that Mich/Iowa UNDER play. Don't want another ass burner, ya know.

 

[Jimboski]

Phooey

Phooey

With the score 42-10 halfway through the 4th, I think it's safe to say that Plan B worked. That helped but, Sheeet, it wasn't a good day, gang. If the Patriots cover today (Sun) and my parlay is dead on account of a -620 Money Liner... . well, that sho does leave a sour taste in me mouth, YUCK!

Next week may be better after I feed the Cruncher with some more data from this week.

Good Luck NFLin, everybody.