Saturday Bowl Games

[Smitty]

Citrus Bowl

lsu (-3) 2 units. i'm going to start with a really scary question.... is ANYONE on louisville? crap. well, we'll all go down together. this is the time of year i normally can't pick a bowl game correctly to save my life. hopefully i won't give away ALL my profits. anyway, lsu lost 4 games this year, all to teams that were very physical (wisconsin, auburn, alabama, and florida). louisville is good, but they're not going to outmuscle lsu. they played one sec team this year, and lost to kentucky in their last game. no secret here - the key for lsu is guice. he averaged an absolutely sick 8 yards/carry. they need to get him going against a louisville defense that only gave up 2.99 yards/carry.

one concern - this is orgeron's first bowl game as head coach. guys seem to do pretty poorly in their first game.

BUT... one positive... if either team is disappointed to be here, it's going to be louisville.

and one interesting stat.... this is the first time louisville has been a dog all year.

 

[LineMovin]

Agree everyone on LSU. Curious why line hasn't moved off 3??


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[Big G21]

Uk had 229 rush yards against ul and almost 600 total o yards. Guice should run free! Also houston exposed ul o line. Got to think lsu d can do the same. GL

 

[ejthree]

Citrus Bowl

lsu (-3) 2 units. i'm going to start with a really scary question.... is ANYONE on louisville? crap. well, we'll all go down together. this is the time of year i normally can't pick a bowl game correctly to save my life. hopefully i won't give away ALL my profits. anyway, lsu lost 4 games this year, all to teams that were very physical (wisconsin, auburn, alabama, and florida). louisville is good, but they're not going to outmuscle lsu. they played one sec team this year, and lost to kentucky in their last game. no secret here - the key for lsu is guice. he averaged an absolutely sick 8 yards/carry. they need to get him going against a louisville defense that only gave up 2.99 yards/carry.

one concern - this is orgeron's first bowl game as head coach. guys seem to do pretty poorly in their first game.

BUT... one positive... if either team is disappointed to be here, it's going to be louisville.

and one interesting stat.... this is the first time louisville has been a dog all year.

Nice write-up...I believe LSU plays with fire and passion today...I agree Guice is the key today and BTW this kid is a friggin BEAST...He does not go down easily...I think LSU is right side...GL

 

[Smitty]

i fully agree. on paper, lsu should roll. they have the speed on defense to hang with jackson and they should be able to get the ground game going. AND louisville may be disappointed to be here.

but EVERYONE is on lsu and the line hasn't budged. we're probably fucked.

 

[ejthree]

i fully agree. on paper, lsu should roll. they have the speed on defense to hang with jackson and they should be able to get the ground game going. AND louisville may be disappointed to be here.

but EVERYONE is on lsu and the line hasn't budged. we're probably fucked.

FWIW A big group i follow played over in this game...Go figure...

 

[Jord20]

Ville here. Gl on the rest, smitty


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[Smitty]

TaxSlayer Bowl

TaxSlayer Bowl

ah, the old gator bowl. the bastards at taxslayer can't even call it the taxslayer gator bowl.

kentucky (+3) 2 units
kentucky (ML) 1 unit to win 1.4. let me start by saying this is probably a bad bet. no, it's definitely a bad bet. kentucky is not only led by a guy coaching his first bowl game, that guy IS A STOOPS BROTHER!! both teams are coming off big upset wins over their in-state rival. paul johnson is only 4-7 in bowl games. i think some of the advantage of running the option disappears when the opponent has 4-5 weeks to prepare for it.

most importantly... kentucky can run the ball, which will help keep that option attack off the field. uk averages 5.52 yards/carry and 241 yards/game on the ground. georgia tech's run defense is mediocre at best.

i can't believe i'm betting on 2 guys coaching in their first bowl games. no wonder i can't hit a bowl game to save my life this time of year.

 

[Smitty]

FWIW A big group i follow played over in this game...Go figure...

you know, that's kinda funny. i almost posted the under, but the more i thought about it, the more i think we might see a lot of points. besides, right now, how the fuck do you play an under in these games?

 

[Smitty]

Ville here. Gl on the rest, smitty


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atta boy. at least one madjacker is going to win that game. i ain't smart enough to play the cardinals.

by the way, congratulations on that amazing run. hell of a job. :toast:

 

[Smitty]

Peach Bowl

Peach Bowl

washington 1st half (+7) 2 units. discussed this with ej a few weeks ago, and haven't changed my mind. i like the huskies to hang around, at least early. this is one of the few games alabama doesn't have a huge edge on the sideline. chris petersen is as good as anyone with time to prepare. the big question is can washington slow down the tide run game. if they can, they have a shot at turning hurts over. he's a freshman, and still makes freshman mistakes. he just hasn't faced a lot of game pressure this year. hopefully that changes today. including the neutral site game against usc, away from home hurts has 6 TDs and 4 INTs. against ranked teams, those #s are 10 & 8. so it's crucial that washington finds a way to make him throw the ball.

i'm playing a little on washington for the game and ML, but i'm not recommending anyone else do the same. :scared

 

[Smitty]

Fiesta Bowl

Fiesta Bowl

ohio st (-1.5) 2 units. 2 reasons. 1) clemson is not as good as they were last year, particularly on the defensive side of the ball and 2) ohio st has struggled against good defenses this year. see reason #1.

ok, one more reason. urban meyers vs. dabo sweeney.

*side note* urban vs dabo is the greatest battle of coach names ever.

 

[ejthree]

washington 1st half (+7) 2 units. discussed this with ej a few weeks ago, and haven't changed my mind. i like the huskies to hang around, at least early. this is one of the few games alabama doesn't have a huge edge on the sideline. chris petersen is as good as anyone with time to prepare. the big question is can washington slow down the tide run game. if they can, they have a shot at turning hurts over. he's a freshman, and still makes freshman mistakes. he just hasn't faced a lot of game pressure this year. hopefully that changes today. including the neutral site game against usc, away from home hurts has 6 TDs and 4 INTs. against ranked teams, those #s are 10 & 8. so it's crucial that washington finds a way to make him throw the ball.

i'm playing a little on washington for the game and ML, but i'm not recommending anyone else do the same. :scared

Yeah i think this is Washington's one shot to cover as we discussed...Peterson is so REALLY good and his HUSKIES will be in this playoff roll for a while to come IMO...That being said it comes down to STUDS and baby BAMA has a friggin beauty queen at every position and a reload system that no one can match...Should be fun...GL Smitty let's be ready for second half...

 

[Smitty]

thanks, ej. i was about to say hopefully washington is up 21-0 at the end of the first quarter, but then i remembered i've already been on a team that blew a 21-3 lead and another that blew a 24-0 lead this bowl season. so never mind.

 

[Smitty]

let's be ready for second half...

yeah, that TAINT was the dagger. game over. alabama (-7) 4 units.

washington had their chances, but they needed to play better. dropping an INT on bama's first play.... the fumble when they had a decent drive going... it ain't gonna happen for the huskies today. hell of a game plan by petersen, but they needed to execute it perfectly.

 

[ejthree]

yeah, that TAINT was the dagger. game over. alabama (-7) 4 units.

washington had their chances, but they needed to play better. dropping an INT on bama's first play.... the fumble when they had a decent drive going... it ain't gonna happen for the huskies today. hell of a game plan by petersen, but they needed to execute it perfectly.

I think we both had the first half begged but got the boner...Afraid this may get ugly....GL with your play riding the train with you....

 

[Juji-gatame]

yeah, that TAINT was the dagger. game over. alabama (-7) 4 units.

washington had their chances, but they needed to play better. dropping an INT on bama's first play.... the fumble when they had a decent drive going... it ain't gonna happen for the huskies today. hell of a game plan by petersen, but they needed to execute it perfectly.

I'm on the under 24 and just hit bama-7. Totally agree. Wash in big trouble. Thinking 17-3 tide second half

 

[Smitty]

I think we both had the first half begged but got the boner...Afraid this may get ugly....GL with your play riding the train with you....

:toast:

that's just the way i'm running right now. i think lsu was the first thing i've hit since k st the other night. when i get on these runs, something HAS to happen to fuck me. just sick.

 

[Juji-gatame]

Need another score. Actually I need it from anyone as I have wash for game:facepalm:

 

[ejthree]

:toast:

that's just the way i'm running right now. i think lsu was the first thing i've hit since k st the other night. when i get on these runs, something HAS to happen to fuck me. just sick.

WTF kind of play call was that...DO NOT LIKE THIS....