UCF (-4) 1 unit. it's time for the hottest rivalry in sports... the civil conflict! or maybe not. hard to say how ucf will respond to their last-second loss to temple. but they have won and covered both of their road games after the blowout at michigan. if they can put the temple game behind them, i like them to get a solid win in a cold, rainy game.
indiana (ML) 3 units to win . another team that needs to put a tough loss behind them. if the hoosiers have been able to move on from last week, i think they are definitely the better team in this matchup.
colorado (ML) 5 units to win 5. i'm going to keep riding the buffs. they are 6-0 ATS this year and they're playing a stanford team that is nowhere near as good as they've been recently. liufau has had another week for his ankle to heal. i love colorado to get another nice win today.
alabama (-17.5) 2 units. i am concerned with garrett forcing hurts into some bad decisions. but... i'm counting on the tide to get a lead so they're not in a position where they have to throw much. a&m is 68th in the country, allowing 159 rushing yards/game. alabama is 4th in the country, averaging 6.2 yards/rush. oh, and trevor knight is still barely completing over 50% of his passes. that's not going to get it done today. i expect alabama to grind out another convincing win.
illinois (+39.5) 1 unit. this is the first time in a long time i'm betting on a team coached by lovey smith. BUT... a friend of mine is going to the game. he's been to 10 michigan games. the wolverines are 0-10 ATS in those game. EASY MONEY!
memphis (-1.5) 4 units. i think the tigers will get revenge in a big way against the team that handed them their first loss last year. navy is allowing over 8 yards per pass attempt, which is 111th in the country. memphis has faced 3 good pass defenses the last 3 games. i think ferguson will break out with a huge game against the midshipmen.
emu (+24) 3 units. as i said last week, emu has suddenly become competitive. they are 5-0 ATS since their blowout loss at mizzou. i think they're going to keep this one fairly close in a battle of directional michigans.
tulane (+10.5) 2 units.
tulane (ML) 1 unit to win 3.3. what we have here is the classic "double digit rushing dog." tulane rushes for 4.57 yards/att and tulas rushes for 4.24 yards/att. tulane allows 3.67 yards/att and tulsa allows 4.13 yards/att. the green wave defense has not allowed more than 24 points in regulation this year. i like them to step up and keep this one close.
auburn (-10.5) 2 units. this line is batshit insane, BEGGING for hog money. i have a hard time believing i'm wagering on the tigers, laying points to anyone. but i gotta do it.
texas st (ML) 1 unit to win 2.1. 100% wagering against the ragin' cajuns. they lost back-to-back road games in a combined 6 OTs, then got shut out by app st. maybe they still have something in the tank, but i figure the bobcats are worth a shot. they may kick the cajuns while they're down.
kentucky (+4) 2 units
kentucky (ML) 2 units to win 3.2. the wildcats have covered 3 straight, including 2 SU home wins. miss st is 1-2 on the road, with the only win a close game at umass. and they are coming off a 2 OT loss at byu. every time i trust kentucky to come up with a big win, i regret it. here we go again....
maryland (ML) 2 units to win 2.6. if their jerseys didn't say "michigan st", they wouldn't be favored in this game. sparty has lost 4 straight. their only wins this year are against furman and notre dame (that win doesn't look too impressive now, does it?). AND... to me this is the key today.... they play michigan next week. maryland has been pretty bad the last 2 weeks, but they catch sparty at the right time.
LSU (-7.5) 3 units. the tigers are undefeated since they fired les miles!! ok, they played missouri and southern miss. but that means they are 3-0 this season against "miss" teams. and 4-0 after today. between fournette and guice, lsu may not have to throw the ball against an ole miss run defense that allows 213 yards/game, which is 104th in the country.
washington st (-7.5) 2 units. i'm going to keep wagering against az st until i see a reason to stop. the sun devils are dead last in the country, allowing 384 passing yards/game. and it's not even close... that's 50 yards/game more than the 2nd worst team. washington st may be able to play "name that score" tonight.
indiana (ML) 3 units to win . another team that needs to put a tough loss behind them. if the hoosiers have been able to move on from last week, i think they are definitely the better team in this matchup.
colorado (ML) 5 units to win 5. i'm going to keep riding the buffs. they are 6-0 ATS this year and they're playing a stanford team that is nowhere near as good as they've been recently. liufau has had another week for his ankle to heal. i love colorado to get another nice win today.
alabama (-17.5) 2 units. i am concerned with garrett forcing hurts into some bad decisions. but... i'm counting on the tide to get a lead so they're not in a position where they have to throw much. a&m is 68th in the country, allowing 159 rushing yards/game. alabama is 4th in the country, averaging 6.2 yards/rush. oh, and trevor knight is still barely completing over 50% of his passes. that's not going to get it done today. i expect alabama to grind out another convincing win.
illinois (+39.5) 1 unit. this is the first time in a long time i'm betting on a team coached by lovey smith. BUT... a friend of mine is going to the game. he's been to 10 michigan games. the wolverines are 0-10 ATS in those game. EASY MONEY!
memphis (-1.5) 4 units. i think the tigers will get revenge in a big way against the team that handed them their first loss last year. navy is allowing over 8 yards per pass attempt, which is 111th in the country. memphis has faced 3 good pass defenses the last 3 games. i think ferguson will break out with a huge game against the midshipmen.
emu (+24) 3 units. as i said last week, emu has suddenly become competitive. they are 5-0 ATS since their blowout loss at mizzou. i think they're going to keep this one fairly close in a battle of directional michigans.
tulane (+10.5) 2 units.
tulane (ML) 1 unit to win 3.3. what we have here is the classic "double digit rushing dog." tulane rushes for 4.57 yards/att and tulas rushes for 4.24 yards/att. tulane allows 3.67 yards/att and tulsa allows 4.13 yards/att. the green wave defense has not allowed more than 24 points in regulation this year. i like them to step up and keep this one close.
auburn (-10.5) 2 units. this line is batshit insane, BEGGING for hog money. i have a hard time believing i'm wagering on the tigers, laying points to anyone. but i gotta do it.
texas st (ML) 1 unit to win 2.1. 100% wagering against the ragin' cajuns. they lost back-to-back road games in a combined 6 OTs, then got shut out by app st. maybe they still have something in the tank, but i figure the bobcats are worth a shot. they may kick the cajuns while they're down.
kentucky (+4) 2 units
kentucky (ML) 2 units to win 3.2. the wildcats have covered 3 straight, including 2 SU home wins. miss st is 1-2 on the road, with the only win a close game at umass. and they are coming off a 2 OT loss at byu. every time i trust kentucky to come up with a big win, i regret it. here we go again....
maryland (ML) 2 units to win 2.6. if their jerseys didn't say "michigan st", they wouldn't be favored in this game. sparty has lost 4 straight. their only wins this year are against furman and notre dame (that win doesn't look too impressive now, does it?). AND... to me this is the key today.... they play michigan next week. maryland has been pretty bad the last 2 weeks, but they catch sparty at the right time.
LSU (-7.5) 3 units. the tigers are undefeated since they fired les miles!! ok, they played missouri and southern miss. but that means they are 3-0 this season against "miss" teams. and 4-0 after today. between fournette and guice, lsu may not have to throw the ball against an ole miss run defense that allows 213 yards/game, which is 104th in the country.
washington st (-7.5) 2 units. i'm going to keep wagering against az st until i see a reason to stop. the sun devils are dead last in the country, allowing 384 passing yards/game. and it's not even close... that's 50 yards/game more than the 2nd worst team. washington st may be able to play "name that score" tonight.
