Saturday

[Smitty]

well, as expected, i've been barely treading water after my great start to the bowl season. losing iowa st on the ML was a real kick in the balls.

Peach Bowl
it feels like these teams play each other in a bowl game every year, and i am always on the wrong side. i was going to take a hard pass on this game. but i'm clearly not bright enough to do that. but at least i'm sharp enough to stay off the side.

over (51) 4 units. if i'm not mistaken, all of michigan's defensive starters are taking the day off, along with 10 of 11 on their second team. only backup nose guard Billy McChubbers has decided the peach bowl is worthy of his presence. hopefully florida can put up a few points against michigan's 3rd stringers. i'm actually counting on this game to go into multiple overtimes. and after the 8th OT and the game still tied at 57, both teams agree to decide the game with an oil wrestling match between jim harbaugh and dan mullen. ratings for the peach bowl hit an all-time low.

 

[JustFootball]

I'll give you 2 units for the write-up. :mj07::toast:

 

[taoist]

Good stuff, Smitty. :mj07:


I'm with you on that Iowa St ML kick in the undercarriage.... :facepalm:


Good luck today and for the rest of the bowl games... :0008

 

[Smitty]

Belk Bowl

Belk Bowl

i actually kinda like this game. probably a little more than i should.

virginia (+3.5) 4 units
virginia (ML) 2 units to win 3
under (53) 3 units. maybe i'm putting a little too much faith into bronco mendenhall. but i'll bet on this guy against this guy every time.

ok, i'm really counting on virginia's defense to be very good today against a gamecock offense that relies on the passing game. virginia is 14th in the country, only giving up 180 passing yards/game. bentley has thrown 12 picks this year, and the cavs are 17th in the country with 15 INTs.

virginia's defense is going to have to be good, because if they fall behind, their offense is not designed to score in a hurry. perkins is going to have to use his feet when the opportunity is there. south carolina's defense is 93rd in the country, giving up 194.5 rushing yards/game. perkins and ellis (the two combined for 386 of virginia's 451 carries this season) need to control this game.

 

[Smitty]

I'll give you 2 units for the write-up. :mj07::toast:

i just bumped up the value of one unit to $100,000. hit me up on venmo. :toast:

 

[Smitty]

Good stuff, Smitty. :mj07:


I'm with you on that Iowa St ML kick in the undercarriage.... :facepalm:


Good luck today and for the rest of the bowl games... :0008

thank you, sir. that was a tough loss. basically a defensive td... the fumble from a guy who almost never fumbles (thank you, announcer jinx)... the false start on the 2-point attempt... i really felt like the cyclones thoroughly outplayed them oh well. let's get 'em today!

 

[Smitty]

Arizona Bowl

Arizona Bowl

nevada (-1) 3 units. ok, i'm not going to waste a ton of time digging into this game. this is mostly a gut play. i think nevada is the better team here.

under (56) 5 units. speaking of gut plays... this one is either genius or really dumb. both teams throw the ball a lot and neither is particularly adept at stopping the pass. so this total is BEGGING for over money. which means smitty has to go under. pray for my soul! and for the under!

1st H under (28) 3 units. i'm tacking this on, because with my luck the game will to into OT and fly over the total.

so, yeah, i have way too much exposure on this game. where is that bottle of woodford?

 

[Smitty]

Cotton Bowl from not the Cotton Bowl

Cotton Bowl from not the Cotton Bowl

clemson (-12.5) 3 units
clemson 1st H (-7) 2 units. just seeing way too much love for nd. this is one of the rare bowl matchups with plenty of common opponents.

nd beat wake by 29. clemson beat them by 60.
nd beat pitt by 5. clemson beat them by 32.
nd beat florida st by 29. clemson beat them by 49.

the only exception was syracuse, which seems to have clemson's number. clemson only beat them by 3, in the game where lawrence was knocked out. when nd beat syracuse, it was syracuse's starting qb that got knocked out early.

ian book has been incredible for nd. but i don't know if he can carry a team against a great defense. i actually trust lawrence a little more today, because i think he's going to get more help from his running game.

ever since college football moved to the bcs system, i've made a lot of money wagering against nd in these big games. this is the first time i'm a little nervous, primarily because i've been very impressed with ian book. but until nd proves they can actually compete at this level, i'm going to keep betting against them.

 

[WildBillPicks7]

GL Smitty, I enjoy your writeups and methodical points even if we are on opposite sides of our plays.

:0074

 

[Juji-gatame]

i actually kinda like this game. probably a little more than i should.

virginia (+3.5) 4 units
virginia (ML) 2 units to win 3
under (53) 3 units. maybe i'm putting a little too much faith into bronco mendenhall. but i'll bet on this guy View attachment 8953 against this guy View attachment 8954 every time.

ok, i'm really counting on virginia's defense to be very good today against a gamecock offense that relies on the passing game. virginia is 14th in the country, only giving up 180 passing yards/game. bentley has thrown 12 picks this year, and the cavs are 17th in the country with 15 INTs.

virginia's defense is going to have to be good, because if they fall behind, their offense is not designed to score in a hurry. perkins is going to have to use his feet when the opportunity is there. south carolina's defense is 93rd in the country, giving up 194.5 rushing yards/game. perkins and ellis (the two combined for 386 of virginia's 451 carries this season) need to control this game.

Looking great so far. SC looks like crap. Taking VA in the second half.

 

[bosbabiesarm]

clemson (-12.5) 3 units
clemson 1st H (-7) 2 units. just seeing way too much love for nd. this is one of the rare bowl matchups with plenty of common opponents.

nd beat wake by 29. clemson beat them by 60.
nd beat pitt by 5. clemson beat them by 32.
nd beat florida st by 29. clemson beat them by 49.

the only exception was syracuse, which seems to have clemson's number. clemson only beat them by 3, in the game where lawrence was knocked out. when nd beat syracuse, it was syracuse's starting qb that got knocked out early.

ian book has been incredible for nd. but i don't know if he can carry a team against a great defense. i actually trust lawrence a little more today, because i think he's going to get more help from his running game.



ever since college football moved to the bcs system, i've made a lot of money wagering against nd in these big games. this is the first time i'm a little nervous, primarily because i've been very impressed with ian book. but until nd proves they can actually compete at this level, i'm going to keep betting against them.

Come on Smitty you can?t give Common opponents as your reason for Handicaping a game.

 

[Smitty]

GL Smitty, I enjoy your writeups and methodical points even if we are on opposite sides of our plays.

:0074

thanks, wildbill! gl to you as well.

 

[Smitty]

Come on Smitty you can?t give Common opponents as your reason for Handicaping a game.

:mj07::mj07: i was wondering if someone would call me out on that. i know, i know, i hate it. it's generally useless. but i think 4 common opponents in one year can be a little telling in college football. you never see that in a bowl game. so i figured i'd throw it in there.

hey, you're on fire and i hate to be on the opposite side on this one. but the only way i see nd keeping it close is by rattling lawrence with a ton of pressure. so far,clemson has done a great job protecting him, as he's only been sacked 8 times in well over 300 dropbacks.

 

[Smitty]

in the arizona bowl... holy shit, i don't know how many more bullets nevada can dodge. but i'm loving it so far.

may have to look at the second half over. we'll see if nevada's offense shows any life in the next 10 minutes.

 

[ejthree]

clemson (-12.5) 3 units
clemson 1st H (-7) 2 units. just seeing way too much love for nd. this is one of the rare bowl matchups with plenty of common opponents.

nd beat wake by 29. clemson beat them by 60.
nd beat pitt by 5. clemson beat them by 32.
nd beat florida st by 29. clemson beat them by 49.

the only exception was syracuse, which seems to have clemson's number. clemson only beat them by 3, in the game where lawrence was knocked out. when nd beat syracuse, it was syracuse's starting qb that got knocked out early.

ian book has been incredible for nd. but i don't know if he can carry a team against a great defense. i actually trust lawrence a little more today, because i think he's going to get more help from his running game.

ever since college football moved to the bcs system, i've made a lot of money wagering against nd in these big games. this is the first time i'm a little nervous, primarily because i've been very impressed with ian book. but until nd proves they can actually compete at this level, i'm going to keep betting against them.

Damn Smitty I hate to see you on Clemson... My largest play so far is N Dame...Personally I think Davi is a Great recruiter but game day coach I give to N Dame ..Should be a great game and am looking forward to it...

 

[Betone]

Great call on Virginia! I forgot about Muschump being the coach for SC. He is awful and I feel sorry for SC fans. Good call again Smitty:toast:

 

[Smitty]

Looking great so far. SC looks like crap. Taking VA in the second half.

piece of cake. :toast:

 

[Smitty]

Damn Smitty I hate to see you on Clemson... My largest play so far is N Dame...Personally I think Davi is a Great recruiter but game day coach I give to N Dame ..Should be a great game and am looking forward to it...

bah. the way today has started for me, no doubt i'm losing the late games. nd is probably a lock.

and, yeah, dabo ain't a great game day coach. but until nd proves me wrong, they just don't have the talent to compete at this level. maybe today is the day for them. the line is dropping, so maybe it is.

 

[Smitty]

Great call on Virginia! I forgot about Muschump being the coach for SC. He is awful and I feel sorry for SC fans. Good call again Smitty:toast:

thanks! and, yeah, i actually had to look up who their coach was. i was already going to play virginia, but that sealed the deal for me. :toast:

 

[ejthree]

bah. the way today has started for me, no doubt i'm losing the late games. nd is probably a lock.

and, yeah, dabo ain't a great game day coach. but until nd proves me wrong, they just don't have the talent to compete at this level. maybe today is the day for them. the line is dropping, so maybe it is.

I just hate going against a good capper who is on fire...Great work young man...