Say hello to your 2005 BCS Champion...

[bigdad2]

In each of the last 4 years the team which has won the BCS Championship had EXACTLY 5 losses the year before. Taking that into account we can look at some of the 5 loss teams to see if any merit consideration for next year. Did any LSU fan really think they would win the BCS title game? I, as I Buckeye fan, never thought OSU's magical season in 2002 would end up as it did. Before then both Miami and Oklahoma were at some of the lowest points in their long standing tradition before winning the BCS title the following year. Aside from the schedule setting up perfectly with big rival games at home, a top-ranked defense is the signature of all of these teams. The similarities go on from there as the last 3 BCS Champs have all had Junior QB's at the helm (Dorsey, Krenzel and Mauck).

Taking that into consideration here is a list of teams to watch for in 2004:

1) Missouri (8-5)- before people start going crazy let's take a closer look at this team. Brad Smith will be entering his JR year with possible Heisman aspirations going into next fall. The team landed one of it's biggest recruits ever in highly regarded local boy Tony Temple who had USC, Michigan and Tennessee pounding at his door. The schedule will be in the Tiger's favor with Oklahoma, Colorado and Kansas State all visiting Columbia. This is a young team who's defense was solid but by no means dominating in any way. I believe they will be one of the big surprise teams of 2004.

2) Oregon (8-5)- I will go on record now and state I believe this will be on of the best offensive teams in the country. Let's not forget how everyone was on the Oregon bandwagon after they dismissed Michigan at the end of September. Clemens was VERY impressive in the bowl game throwing for 363 yards and 3 TD's. He, Demitruis Williams and Terrence Whitehead will make up arguably the best offensive trio in the country and all will be entering their junior year. While USC has done an outstanding job in recruting I don't feel they will dominate teams as the did this year. They also did not play Oregon and will miss them again this year. Aside from USC and Oregon the PAC-10 will be marked with weak teams which will help them run the table. The "Civil War" game against rival OSU will be away this year and will decide the 'Ducks fate late in the season...

3) Virginia (8-5)- I really like what Groh has done with this young team and 2004 will be their time to shine. Although they lose their QB Schwaub, they have three guys who will get the chance to start and should do well. Oh, and two are JR's... The schedule is not really in their favor with tough road games @FSU, VT and GT. For the past two years many have been praising Groh for pulling these top recruits and now they will expect him to deliver a 10 win season. I believe he will and maybe more.

4) Virginia Tech (8-5)- Okay, yes we have Virginia at #3 but Tech was slated for the Sugar Bowl at the beginning of last year by a number of people. (myself included) The loss of Jones and Hall to the draft will hurt but "Beamer Ball" will continue on. Should any injury happen to Randall @QB and Little Vick will be waiting in the shadows to lead the team. It will be interesting to see where Vick plays as he was extreamely successful at WR in the bowl game against Cal. They will have to win at Miami, which they have been unable to do recently, but the rest of their schedule bodes well and this team will be in the BCS hunt all year...

5) Florida (8-5)- Zook gets a C for his first two years at Florida after turning in consecutive 8-5 seasons. Yet he was recently rewarded with a 2 year contract extension this offseason. UF will get a chance to be the team to beat in the Sunshine State as I believe FSU and Miami will fall behind the Gators in 2004. This will also be his first full year of players he recruited and will have a ton of pressure to land some in-state talent. They need to get by FSU last game of the season if Florida is to even think about a "Home" game in the Orange Bowl next year. They will have LSU visiting them this year and will travel to Tenn and UGA. This team will need a solid defense effort all year as Leak continues his development next year. A solid supporting cast will help but they will also need a little luck.

Only 7 and a half months before the season starts!

 

[z2000]

Just as an FYI, Oregon does not play USC in 2004.

 

[Blackman]

Great stat - while right now I'd have a hard time seeing them winning the BCS - Missou, Florida and Va Tech could be very solid next year.


Good post.

 

[bigdad2]

z2000 - thanks for the update. I'd appreciate it if you know of a website where I can find next year's schedule for all of the teams. Someone, actually a USC fan, had told me he thought they were slated to play @Oregon next year and I didn't do my homework there.

Blackman - Thanks for the reply! I agree it is hard to imagine Missouri in the BCS title game but stranger things have happened. They will be my pick for a darkhorse all year...

 

[Blackman]

These are up at Olympic: Odds to win the 2005 FedEx Orange Bowl


Florida +1500
Virginia Tech +2800
Missouri +7500
Virginia +3800
Oregon +3800



Might be worth a shot :shrug:

 

[Scott4USC]

USC does not play Oregon next year.

I am betting $1000 on USC to win NC next year. I am hoping to get higher than 4-1. Next year was suppose to be a championship run for USC. So if USC won NC in rebuilding year, what is going to happen next year?

Other good bets would be...........

Florida St. 12-1 is good bet. It always helps having senior QB, although I am not a RIX fan. I think they will be very good both sides of ball next year.

Georgia 12-1 is good bet as well. Should be improved from an injury year. QB comes back and is very experienced. And most important their OL will be a lot better.


---LONGSHOT---
Oregon 38-1

 

[bigdad2]

Blackman - great minds think alike! It looks like while you were posting I was doing some research myself. I found this at Sportsbook which I use for times like this when they are off on futures in my mind...


Florida 20-1

Missouri 75-1

Oregon 75-1

Virginia 40-1

Virginia Tech 40-1



Mizzu and Oregon are both worth serious consideration at this price...

 

[Mr Hockey]

Name the sportsbook please. I will put some coin down on Oregon at those odds just because without USC on tap, their schedule looks promising.

 

[dawgball]

I think Florida will dominate the SEC next season. Chris Leak will learn a ton over the off-season looking at film, and there is never a shortage of big-time recruits in the state of Florida!

I see them as a real force next season. I just hope Georgia can get that monkey off of their back with them.

 

[bigdad2]

Scott - If you can post a website that has next year's schedules I would appreciate it. The best time to start looking at next year is now in my opinion. I think you will be lucky to find 4-1 on USC for next year as 3-1 would be the max.

While I disagree with your picks of FSU, I am a HUGE fan against Rix as Bowden has shown way too much faith in him, and Georgia best of luck if you take them...

P.S. 8/28/04 - USC versus VT should be a great opening game!

 

[bigdad2]

Mr. Hockey - Sportsbook.com is where the odds were posted. With Indiana, Nevada and Idaho on the non-conference slate then @WSU, @Stanford,@Cal and the "Civil War" at OSU I've talked myself into taking the Ducks for next year. Too much value to pass over for me...

dawgball - you've probably seen this but,

2004 SCHEDULE

Day Date Opponent
Sat 09/04/2004 Georgia Southern Athens, Ga.
Sat 09/11/2004 South Carolina Columbia, SC
Sat 09/18/2004 Marshall Athens, Ga.
Sat 10/02/2004 LSU Athens, Ga.
Sat 10/09/2004 Tennessee Athens, Ga.
Sat 10/16/2004 Vanderbilt Athens, Ga.
Sat 10/23/2004 Arkansas Fayetteville, Ark.
Sat 10/30/2004 Florida Jacksonville, Fla.
Sat 11/06/2004 Kentucky Lexington, Ky.
Sat 11/13/2004 Auburn Auburn, Ala.
Sat 11/27/2004 Georgia Tech Athens, Ga.

Should be a solid year in Athens but probably a few bumps in the road (LSU, FLA, Auburn) I totally agree with you on Leek and Florida as Zook still has time to pull in some of the big recruits in-state who are out there. The title game was just played and I'm ready for next year!!!

 

[ajoytoy]

Other good bets would be...........

Florida St. 12-1 is good bet. It always helps having senior QB, although I am not a RIX fan. I think they will be very good both sides of ball next year.

they got a lot of Seniors leaving this year....add VT and Miami into the ACC mix....gonna be tough year for them IMO....

good luck Scott

 

[Scott4USC]

Thanks for replies and advice. I am not betting on neither UGA or FSU to win NC, just threw out my opinion that at 12-1 they might be good bets. Rix "could" suprise as a senior QB. I think UGA will be good.

I am only betting USC because I truly think next years NC is USC's to lose. The last 2 years at the end of the year USC was arguably playing the best football in the country. I do not think there is a coaching staff better than USC nor better recruiters than USC. USC just won NC in a clearly rebuilding year. USC returns EVERYBODY on the team. Only 2 positions are worries, OL and DB's. Every other position will be UPGRADED. Scary. USC loses 3 senior OL, which def. could hurt early in year, but there is huge talent waiting. Also Carroll just recruited the #1 OL from JC ranks. THAT HELPS! Maybe next years OL will be better. I truly think the title is USC's to lose. This will be the first time Carroll will be legitimately contending for the title and the last 2 years he has had his teams playing the best football in the country. That is impressive. Chow, will now have an experienced Lienart running his offense and USC gets back 1st and 2nd string Tight Ends

 

[ajoytoy]

Hated when Coach Chow left the Pack....that was a sad day ....at least he gave Amato the offensive vision that Philip had implimented these past 4 years...

 

[Sun Tzu]

makes me wonder - if they pass rule that you have to win your conference, which is the odd team out if USC and Oregon both go unbeaten?

 

[Pujo21]

LOOKS GOOD

LOOKS GOOD

I'm heading out to Vegas for Super Bowls weekend..i hope i can find some futures out there !

Also i am going to be throwing a few on The Mountaineers. They just happened to be 8 - 5.

Looking at Clemson too !

Good Luck all

 

[mansa_musa]

I would find it hard to believe if either USC or Oregon goes undefeated in Pac 10 play. No one has done that since 1991 (UW Huskies), and Oregon plays WSU & Cal on the road. Cal beat SC this year at home & also beat (another team being mentioned here) VA Tech on a neutral field. WSU plays everybody in the Pac 10 very tough, except UW, in Pullman.

Missouri should be handicapped by their conference being so weak this yr, but if I know the pollsters, they will find a way to put 3-5 Big 12 teams in the top 20. They will schedule weak non-conf, so if they can spring an upset or two in conf they may get some national title run.

My sleeper would have to be Georgia. The Bulldogs played through a ton of injuries last yr & will have a lot of revenge games against the SEC elite, most of those at home. I also believe they will field the best offensive unit in the SEC next yr.

Another team not mentioned yet is Ohio St. I havent seen their schedule yet, but, if the last two yrs are indicative, they will play their first 6-7 games at home & they should have Michigan (w/ a new QB) at home also. Unless there is a Big 10 team out there that is on the rise, I can see them running the table in that conf.

And judging from the BCS formula over the past few years, we should be looking for what will be the best team in the weakest overall conf. Like Oklahoma this year & Miami the last 2 years before that.

 

[bigdad2]

ajoytoy - VT and Miami are added to the ACC next year and not this year. Also, Rix has to win a big game and show some consistency before FSU can even be listed in the top-10.

Pujo21 - Clemson ended the season at 9-4 and will have another solid team next year. I'm not including them simply for the fact that they had "too good" a season with 4 losses and not 5. West Virginia was a brief thought but I don't think there is enough talent and help on the schedule for them to have a shot. Plus all things considered Oregon and Missouri at 75:1 has more value than WV. I'd list WV at 100:1 at least for any value.

mansa_musa - I have to disagree with you that no one will go undefeated in the PAC-10 this year. While it has been over 10 years since it last happened that is even more of a reason this year could be special. Both USC and Oregon will be on a different level than the other teams in the conference. Factoring in that the two teams do not meet increases the chances even more. As you listed Washington State and Cal will be tough but winnable games for Oregon. The season will come down to 11/20 @Oregon State should they be undefeated. Although Olshansky has declared for the NFL the team will return 13 starters (8 on offense and 5 on defense) and light up the scoreboard weekly.

I like Missouri more and more when I look at this team. The non-conference games (Ark St., Troy St., Ball St.) are a breeze and will allow Temple to get his feet wet. Look for the Tigers to be 5-0 on 10/16 when they travel to Austin. A loss there will hurt but by no means kill their season. In my mind they could be this year's K-State with a hard-to-contain QB, speedy RB and blitzing D. After Texas the toughest game will be in Lincoln followed by KSt. the following week. I agree the Big-12 will be "down" next year but Mizzu should be in the Top-20 to start the year...

At this point Georgia in my mind will be similar to Auburn from last year. Many people had they highly rated before the season started and they did not handle the pressure well. Actually the last two years the SEC has had a preseason Top-5 team not even finish in the top-25 at the end of the year (Alabama '02, Auburn '03) While I do think Georgia will have a solid year the SEC, like the Big-10, beats itself up in-conference each year.

OSU will go 9-2 or 8-3 and that is someone who watches each of their games. QB is a HUGE question mark as many believe the highly touted Zwick will be behind Troy Smith at QB. He has not shown the development to this point the coaches had hoped as the job was supposed to be his this year with no problem. Tressel is set to bring in a MONSTER recruiting class as they stand now at #5 or #6 but could jump to #2 depending on the next few weeks. Ginn (CB), Underwood and Freeman (Both LB's) are all top-50 Blue Chips and defense will set the tone for this class. Looking at the schedule the 9/18 @NCSt. looks like a trap and the sting of a this year's 2OT loss will remain with the Wolfpack. Throw in road games @Iowa, Mich St and Purdue then the end of year game against "The Team Up North" and a 2 loss season is impressive.

I agree that looking at the weakest MAJOR conference will help but that will be tough to call now... but we have plenty of time to debate!

 

[Scott4USC]

mansa_musa

Your right, the Pac 10 Conference is too tough top to bottom for 2 teams to go undefeated. It is too tough for one team to go undefeated. People have a hard time realizing how tough the Pac 10 is. Very tough conference top to bottom and the teams always beat on each other.

Unlike many conferences, upsets happen all the time in the Pac 10.

 

[Blackman]

Bigdad - are you sure about Miami and Va Tech....I thought they were going to join the ACC after this season, since the Big East did not want to have to deal with a "lame duck" year so to speak.

Might be wrong - I just can't wait for the realignment to be honest, great to see the Big East get back to their roots and be the mecca of college basketball again.