Scrappy Falcons using system, of scoring more points than their opp, win SB LI

tball

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OK so Falcons WIN the bowl i'm guaranteeing Patriots lose by more than 3 points

Patriots aren't a fraud playoff team, but they beat an offensively inept texans team who beat a Carr-less raiders squad to get where they were in playoffs. Patriots beat their opponents, i'll give'm credit (all yr, and in playoffs)


Atanta struggles at times on D -no doubt- though to say the Pat's D resembles a top tier unit (or coming anyhwere close to ranking them at #1 overall)
is foolish --though are cock of the walk, in points allowed against

Falcons will be 5th team to beat Pats in a bowl - and yeah, they lost to TB



(Rams won Super Bowl XXXIV)


(Dolphins lost Super Bowl XIX - it actually has no bearing on this game -whatsoever- but its true, so you know what i'm saying hasta be like 110% true - guar-ron-teed)

(L2 decades, dogs when win SU in bowl, avg margin of victory is 11.8 pts, never winning by less than 3 -
favs on the flipside avg win is 10 pts, also never winning by less than 3) bonus, when winning dog from NFC, avg margin victory 14 pts


Falcons WIN super bowl LI
 

Old School

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good stuff:0074

collecting the picks of members on one page in my thread "Old School" to see how it shakes out ..

should I enter Money line or the +3 for your entry?

thanks for your input..
 

tball

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good stuff:0074

collecting the picks of members on one page in my thread "Old School" to see how it shakes out ..

should I enter Money line or the +3 for your entry?

thanks for your input..


saw your initial post, which was tipping point to my thinking to post - by all means, go for it

ATL -3 (minus 3) for me -- or ML if works better for what you're doing
 

Old School

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saw your initial post, which was tipping point to my thinking to post - by all means, go for it

ATL -3 (minus 3) for me -- or ML if works better for what you're doing

I assume you mean Alt+3
 

Scrapman

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How the NFL?s all-time best offenses have fared in the postseason (hint: not so great), and some Super Bowl 48 prop bets

looked this up for my column predicting a Seattle victory over Denver in Super Bowl XLVIII today, but had no room for it in there, so why not spill the work-product over to the blog hours before kick-off?

Yes, the trend folds into my belief that the great offenses aren?t at all locks for Super Bowl victories and in fact the historical trend is that the greatest NFL offenses mostly do not win titles.

It just seems like it?s almost impossible to keep the scoring train going at that kind of rate into the postseason vs. good defenses; and once it stops, the teams that dominate due to a superb offense have no other way to win. So they lose.

?The top 12 highest-scoring teams in NFL regular-season history, and how far they went that postseason/

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1. DENVER this season, 606 points. Postseason result: Playing Seattle in the Super Bowl today.

2. NEW ENGLAND 2007 season, 589 points. Result: Lost to NY Giants in Super Bowl 42.

3. GREEN BAY 2011 season, 560 points. Result: Lost to NY Giants in divisional round.
4. NEW ENGLAND 2012 season, 557 points. Result: Lost to Baltimore Ravens in AFC Championship Game.

5. MINNESOTA 1998 season, 556 points. Result: Lost to Atlanta in the NFC Championship Game.

6. NEW ORLEANS 2011 season, 547 points. Result: Lost to the 49ers in the NFC divisional round.

7. WASHINGTON 1983 season, 541 points. Result: Lost to the L.A. Raiders in Super Bowl XVIII.

8. ST. LOUIS RAMS 2000 season, 540 points. Result: Lost to New Orleans in the NFC wild-card round.

?9. ST. LOUIS RAMS 1999 season, 526 points. Result: WON SUPER BOWL XXXIV over Tennessee. Yes, this Rams team was the only one among the top-12 scoring offenses in NFL history that won the Super Bowl that season.

10. INDIANAPOLIS 2004 season, 522 points. Result: Lost to New England in the AFC divisional round.

11. NEW ENGLAND 2010 season, 518 points. Result: Lost to NY Jets in the AFC divisional round.

T12. MIAMI 1984 season, 513 points. Result: Lost to 49ers in Super Bowl XIX.
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T12. NEW ENGLAND 2011 season, 513 points. Result: Lost to NY Giants in Super Bowl XLVI.

?And if you go by average points per game, including teams that played 14-game regular-seasons, the highest two seasons in that category during the Super Bowl era would be?

RAIDERS 1967 AFL season, 468 points (33.4 per, would rank 9th by average). Result: Lost to Green Bay in Super Bowl II.

RAIDERS 1968 AFL season, 453 points (32.4 per, would rank 14th by average). Result: Lost to NY Jets in AFL conference championship.

All in all, 10 teams among NFL?s top-20 all-time scoring offenses (I only listed the top 14 here) got to the Super Bowl that season.

Those teams were 3-7 in the big game.

And 10 of the NFL?s top-20 all-time scoring defenses got to the Super Bowl, where they went 6-4.

* I?ll do this quickly because I?ve gotten sidetracked with other stuff, but let?s throw out some Super Bowl prop bet guesses just for fun?

As always, I?ll start with an imaginary $500, and see what I end up with at the end of the game tonight.

(This is an annual thing I do for the Super Bowl, but I skipped it last season because things got a little chaotic with the 49ers in there and good dinners to get to in New Orleans. And mainly I just forgot.)

Note: Most of these prop-bet lines are taken from the bovada.lv listings.

-How long will Renee Fleming?s national anthem take? I?ll put $25 to win $25 on OVER 2:30.

-Will Michael Crabtree tweet about Richard Sherman during the game? I?ll put $50 to win $25 on NO.

-Will Earl Thomas intercept a pass? I?ll put $50 to win $125 on YES.

-What will be the first accepted penalty? I?ll put $20 to win $50 on FALSE START.

-Team to call the first timeout? I?ll put $25 to win $22 on DENVER.

-Team to commit the first turnover? I?ll put $65 to win $50 on DENVER.

-Longest rush, Russell Wilson: I?ll put $25 to win $22 on OVER 10.5 yards

-Longest Peyton Manning completion: I?ll put $25 to win $22 on OVER 37.5 yards.

-What will be the first score of the game? I?ll put $50 to win $175 on a Denver field goal.

-Total team points: I?ll put $55 to win $50 on Denver UNDER 25 points.

-Margin of victory: I?ll put $45 to win $168.75 that Seattle wins by 1 to 6 points.

-Super Bowl MVP: I?ll put $20 to win $800 (4o-to-1 odds) on EARL THOMAS.

-Over/under game total: I?ll put $50 to win $44 on UNDER 47.5 points.

And again, I?m picking Seattle to win this game 24-21. wow was he way off huh ! 43 - 8 the BEST DEFENSE RANKED #! shut out broncos high flying offense

last year broncos held high flying Panthers to a putrid 10 points in a romp win 24-10

:00hour
 

tball

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How the NFL?s all-time best offenses have fared in the postseason (hint: not so great), and some Super Bowl 48 prop bets

looked this up for my column predicting....

<< -condensed for sake of sanity- <condensed for="" the="" sake="" of="" sanity="">>></condensed>

.... last year broncos held high flying Panthers to a putrid 10 points in a romp win 24-10

:00hour

so what you're saying is.. they're due, right? the high flying offensive team having a chance to win this year

totally you are. sounds good to me --lets lock in some more atlanta then.

look, i get it, and i actually agree that 9 times outta 10 the better defensive team wins it, but when someone says, defense wins championships, this patriot team (their defense) does not come to mind for me

granted, i get you'll use their #1 points against ranking. sure, why not? compelling enough argument, but as a whole, their defense has always been, --make teams need to grind it out, long sustained drives to score and seemingly half the time the team they're playing bogs down, settles for fg, or is soo behind because of proficiency of pat's offense, that burdened to need to go for it on 4th and whatever, down by double digits etc, just to be able to try and make it a game

i'll give credit, where credits due, the pat's D does a good job of limiting conversion rates when opposition reaches the money zone, or redzone (which in of itself doesnt happen a ton, i get it)...hence the low scoring output, but their defense, as a whole, is not one that i say would win this game, ...its not.



old school has said it in one of his posts, if --and is a gargantuan IF--, the falcons can somehow get pressure on a genius-led, uber-prepared tom brady, then they substantially make things easier for themselves. no new news there, that could be said for every team, really, but is especially true when trying to beat these patriots. their record speaking for itself over the years, proves out just how hard that is, as a good a gameplan as it may sound - you still need to go figure way to get it done


if it were as easy to be able to say, well, better of 2 defenses wins it ~everytime~, wouldnt everyone be rich? i guess thats why they play the games. i for one, do take that into account, yet feel atlanta has a better chance of winning this game, than do the patriots - my opinion.

all in all, we can go back and forth you hammering away at pro-pat's stats, trends, and me explaining away why i think dont always apply to present situation (again, a feel for me), but i'll second what some have said here, and leave it at that

I know New England's defense is good, but not nearly as good as some of the Super Bowl winning teams in the past. Did you know there were 90 defensive scores in the NFL this year? 56 fumble returns and 34 INT returns.....NEW ENGLAND HAD A GRAND TOTAL OF 0!! By the way....speaking of defense, Atlanta was second in the league with 8 defensive scores, 2nd only to KC's 9. Also this year, 16 teams had more sacks than New England's defense had, so they are in the middle of the pack in QB sacks. I know New England has a good D. But I am wagering my money on Atlanta, because I don't think New England can stop them. I'm also taking over 58 because I don't think Atlanta can stop the Pats either. If I go 0-2, it won't be the first time. Good luck if you take Atlanta!
 

yyz

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On the course!
One of the more interesting things that I read was that the sharps bet under and no on the prop wagers, while the public goes over and yes.
 
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