SEC HOOPS
- Thread starter Houseman
- Start date
Aub moved from +16 to +14. Money moving to AUB. I have it around 12. Always bet at your own risk.
Sorry if you got it under 16. I pushed. AUB ran out of gas in the last 3min. But they play with heart. They will win a few upsets. FL needs some work but is starting to gel.
Geez... Had Auburn +15.5! They were down 61-56 and got outscored 11-0 to f*ck me.
I'm so damn sick of college basketball. I handicap games perfectly and then get stuck in the backdoor without vaseline in the end. Horrible beat for Auburn backers.
I'm so damn sick of college basketball. I handicap games perfectly and then get stuck in the backdoor without vaseline in the end. Horrible beat for Auburn backers.
I agree, you could tell that they were spent. Little rest and didn't get into FL till 3AM. Are you able to buy 1/2's.
1/14
No play Sun. Liked ALa but didn't play.
1 outside play I like
Pitt +2 at home.
Homedog and 8-3 ats (4-1 at hm) 3*
No play Sun. Liked ALa but didn't play.
1 outside play I like
Pitt +2 at home.
Homedog and 8-3 ats (4-1 at hm) 3*
I hate betting on road chalk, but I don't know how long Pitt can sustain the losses of Fields and Cook.
1/16
4 games tonight in the SEC. I thought I would be able to find some value today, but my program is very close to Vegas right now.
Here are the values so far.
GA =1.5
SC=+5
LSU/Aub=even
MS= -3
As you can see, the only big value the program is giving is SC (because SC puts up 3 more 3's per game, Better FT%, Less TO, more RB's than ARK) So the computer is not helping me too much on my picks today.
Well, I am not too confident with my picks. Also, I am on a down hill slide going 0-2 in last SEC play.
I have moved from gut/hunch plays to cap on paper. Maybe I am putting too much into the numbers and not enough about looking at how the bet should be played based on movement of money. I ramble on. OK,
People love to fade me, so here it goes.
GA -3.5 1* (very tough at home) win
SC +11 1* (numbers say to go this way) Win
LSU -5 1* (at -5.5 now should go to -5) Loss
Miss -5.5 1* (line was at -6, buy the 1/2 get it a -5) Loss
I don't even want to count these in the SEC post because I have a feeling that I am not off my downward streak yet.
If anyone has any extra mojo, send it my way.
4 games tonight in the SEC. I thought I would be able to find some value today, but my program is very close to Vegas right now.
Here are the values so far.
GA =1.5
SC=+5
LSU/Aub=even
MS= -3
As you can see, the only big value the program is giving is SC (because SC puts up 3 more 3's per game, Better FT%, Less TO, more RB's than ARK) So the computer is not helping me too much on my picks today.
Well, I am not too confident with my picks. Also, I am on a down hill slide going 0-2 in last SEC play.
I have moved from gut/hunch plays to cap on paper. Maybe I am putting too much into the numbers and not enough about looking at how the bet should be played based on movement of money. I ramble on. OK,
People love to fade me, so here it goes.
GA -3.5 1* (very tough at home) win
SC +11 1* (numbers say to go this way) Win
LSU -5 1* (at -5.5 now should go to -5) Loss
Miss -5.5 1* (line was at -6, buy the 1/2 get it a -5) Loss
I don't even want to count these in the SEC post because I have a feeling that I am not off my downward streak yet.
If anyone has any extra mojo, send it my way.
Last edited:
Miss. just moved to -6.5. If you were able to get MS -5 you may want to look at buying the half and going FL +7 for the same money. 2pt middle! You could win both or end up pushing with juice. I think I will stick to the MS -5.
It figures I went 2-2 last night. Should have laid more on SC. Big game today is TN/Vandy. I'll post more later.
Wow, I can't believe this. I just ran the numbers on the TN/Vandy game two different ways and it's coming out to TN -13 and TN -11. the Line is at -10.5. TN will win but 10.5 is a lot of pts in the SEC. Does anyone else have any numbers on this game?
I need more time to look closer. Any thoughts please chime in.
I need more time to look closer. Any thoughts please chime in.
I guess I should trust my numbers more. I didn't pull the string on the TN play, but that was an impressive win. Look for FL to give TN a fight. They also are coming together quite nice. Also MS could be a surprise and win the SEC this year.
Looking at tomorrow. Early lines.
GA/AK pk. (Ga is good at home)
FL -7 /Ky (FL is good home or away)
GA/AK pk. (Ga is good at home)
FL -7 /Ky (FL is good home or away)
