Sneak Attack Friday

[JT Sneaks]

Interleague is always a tough play for cappers so i thought I would get to work early so MJ's group can beat the man!

Last night's recap:

Florida +120 L -1.00
milwaukee +125 L -1.00
stl / mil UNDER 9-105 W +1.00
Cubs -108 W+1.00
Boston +136 W+1.36
TB +110 L-1.00
Minn -120 W+1.00
SF +140 W+1.40

Yesterday:5-3, +2.76
Overall: 39-21, +27.49
Back with selections later....

JT

Sneaks

 

[MadJack]

sneaks, how did you do during the last interleague series'?

this has had me stumped ever since they started it.

 

[JT Sneaks]

MJ,
I played very sparingly in interleague last time around, however on sides I was at 10-6, but I could not hit a total as I was only 3-9.
I think when you play interleague you have to look at it from many different standpoints.
The first thing I like to do is to see who would benefit from the extra hitter, or who would be hurt by losing one.

Tonight's slate already has me a bit taken aback, as I see alot of road teams that should see some heavy action. Although there will be good reasoning behind the road teams, I may have to look for the best home team in this situation.

I will try to provide lengthy writeups to support my plays in trying to defeat interleague!

Nice job last night BTW...

Sneaks

 

[JT Sneaks]

I am going to stay away from totals in most games for two reasons:

1) They killed me the first time interleague games went around...

2) No umpires in the first game of the series...

Around the Horn

Cubs -130 @ Tigers
The tigers have owned the cubs winning four out of five against the cubs since '98. The detroit tigers after being in a slump have turned things around to win 3 straight over the royals. This may be a good time for them to hope on a mini streak as they face the cubbies at home, and for as bad as the tigers have played this year, they are not bad at home posting a 22-20 record.
The cubs who before last night only managed to score seven runs in four games, blew up with 13 runs last night. This could be a bit inflated as Trachsel is one of the worst pitchers in the league.
Pitching
Most of the cub backers tonight look to Tavarez to easily beat up on holt, who is horrid at home. Actually in the last three holt has out pitched tavarez posting better numbers (WHIP 1.48 to 1.62, and ERA 4.43 to 5.40)
Hitting
The edge goes to the home team again as in the last ten the tigers are batting .257 against right handers while the cubbies are batting .245. On the current three game winning streak the tigers average seven runs a game, which should provide run support, something that has been escaping holt on the year.

Tiger trends:
4-1 vs Cubs since 98
3-0 last 3 games
14-4 in 4th game of a homestand last 18 times
4-1 @ home on Friday last 5 times


PLAY Detroit +120

I'll take the home team tigers who have seemed to figure a way to take home field advantage to a different level.

more to come....

JT

Sneaks


[This message has been edited by JT Sneaks (edited 07-06-2001).]

 

[JT Sneaks]

Around the Horn cont.

Try to get in more than one game this time...

St. Louis @ Cleveland
I see alot of action on the cards tonight, as the indians struggles hit a pinnacle last night as Rocker blew it in the ninth to the sox. However one should be careful as both times are playing bad of late. (both team 2-7 in last nine)
The cardinals have been able to put two wins together, a sure sign that they are coming out a slump, maybe.
I'm backing the tribe in this situation and I'll explain why. The indians have put emphasis on the starting pitching after recent melt downs. Colon responded last night, and I think nagy will do the same tonight.
Before the season the indians boasted the best interleague record in baseball, but played terrible in the first interleague session, so I look for them to pay closer attention this time around. The tribe have also owned the cards of late going 6-2 since '96 to include 2-0 at the Jake. The cards, although they have won the last two are just 3-12 in the last 15 on the road.
The cardinals will have a serious distraction as Big Mac is flaunting with retirement, and although morris has a low era vs. the tribe, lofton .455, and burks .364 hit him well.

It is rare to get the tribe at dog money at home.

PLAY the TrIBE +115

Montreal @ Toronto -152
It is rare that I drop more than -150 (although it seems to happen often lately

) but the jays seem, based on pitching to be a solid play. Carpenter owns the expos and has been pitching better than thurman in his last three starts, no brainer, right? Hold up....

The expos are the hotter of the two teams, and I may not be a geography major, but I do know montreal is closer to toronto than Tampa. The jays played a night game in florida, while the expos took in a nooner in the O dome. I have not been able to find anything on how the flight went for the jays, (perhaps some of our canadian brotherhood, could help me out), but I am reluctant to play the Jays without this info.

PASS (for now)

more to come....

JT

Sneaks

 

[JT Sneaks]

Philly -115 @ Baltimore
For those of you who follow daily stats, this is an easy win as philly is 3-10 on friday on the road L13, and the O's are 4-0 last friday's at the yard. After that your reaching. I just don't get it basic facts:

Phillies are one of the best teams in the national league, and the O's are one of the worst in the AL (sorry jack

) Daal is also on top of his game this year, while roberts is not. Yet the phils look real cheap at -115. Well the O's do seem to hit Daal well as Segui .500, and coninne .556 light him up, however in his last appearence vs. the phils Roberts pitched only three innings and grabbed an era over 27.00...

Bottom line is I can't pass up the phils in this spot. They played the O's three times this year and won two out of three scoring an average of 12 runs per game. When dall pitches they are 14-3, and when roberts is on the hill the O's are just 2-9. Better pitcher, hotter hitters, and better ball club, at bargain basement pricing. I'll bite..

Not actually brimming with confidence are they....

"I don't know that anybody should be fooled into thinking we're a world-beater yet, if anybody does think that," said Orioles manager Mike Hargrove. "We've still got a lot of work to do. We're a lot better than a lot of people thought we would be, but we're nowhere near where we want to be."

PLAY Phillies -115

The OVER also seems to be the play but without an umpire, I'll pass....

JT

Sneaks

[This message has been edited by JT Sneaks (edited 07-06-2001).]

 

[ssd]

JT,
fyi Tribe lineup

Lofton
Vizquel
Burks
Gonzalez
Thome
Cordova
Fryman
Diaz
Cabrera (2nd base - no Alomar)

Tribe should hit Morris well. They have an easier time with the hard stuff. They are thrown off by off-speed. Just hope Nagy can give them six quality innings.

 

[JT Sneaks]

Thanks for the info ssd.....

Sneaks

 

[JT Sneaks]

Atlanta -120 @ Boston

This is a play that I love the Over in, but without the ump I won't play it. (NOTE: Should go to the general thread and check out the post on fenway winds, nice post)
Did anyone see chipper get beaned last night, pure accident, and I haven't heard any news on it yet and it did not look serious however I'm getting on the sox now just in case he sits out.

PLAY Boston +110

Jimy Williams will give players the chance to play if they do well, (see bichette) and if Arrojo pitches like he did his first game, he should have a spot in this banged up rotation. The sox should carry the high off last night's late win into tonight, and be glad to get home off a long road trip. The sox enjoy coming home as they are 37-9 in the first game of a homestand the last 46 times. They also play great in the first game of a series after a win at 11-5. Finally the sox are hitting the ball better than the braves, and give arrojo about six runs in support compared to two runs for burkett by the braves.

NY Mets @ Yankees
PASS

Florida @ Tampa Bay
PASS

Houston @ KC
PASS

back with one more early selection...maybe...

JT

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

well, as i lurk here before I leave...I have to drop a few ideas.

in regards to the toronto/montreal play:

1: TORONTO is an underachieving team this year...and have not done well lately as heavy home favs...
even though toronto have played well historically against the 'SPOS, this year montreal has taken it to them.
ON a game like this, I would pass on it, but since we're here to help each other, i would put a little on the side on the EXPOS, until TORONTO can get over .500

2) furthermore, CARPENTER has a fairly poor record at home 1-5 with a 4.16 ERA
thurman on the road is 1-4 with a 7.00 ERA, but at nite, he's 3-5 with a 4.69 ERA.
those two wins were probably at home, at nite.

3) just because the jays took 2 out of three from tampa don't mean JACK against the EXPOS. This whole season, The jays play a good series on one hand, pat themselves on the back, and then flop on their face in the next series.
I see the JAYZ doin the same thing here.

4) BUT: GSP brought up some interesting interleague stat that AL teams won the first game of the series this season 10-4 (14 series..)

just something to think about, maybe there are other better looking games than this one.

i would lean to MONTREAL.


[This message has been edited by TORONTO-VIGILANTE (edited 07-06-2001).]

 

[JT Sneaks]

Thanks TV it is official I'll pass on the game...

Reds @ Minn
I'm going to pass for now, but if the reds were going to win a game against the twins it would be this one. They have won the last four vs. minny and they first game of a road trip they are 5-0 the last five times, finalyy for you daily freaks, they are 6-0 on the road the last six fridays...Reitisma has actually pitched well for this club of late and it very well could continue against the twins.


finally the sox/brave lineup is in....
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/starters/20010706/atlbos.html

chipper is playing...

Sneaks

 

[JT Sneaks]

Based on GSP's nifty little IL stats, I thought I would try a parlay..(Rog, where you at?)

Boston +111
Cleveland +115
Detroit +109

25.00 to win 212.03

Sneaks

 

[gsp]

I like two of them but if I played Cle they would figure some way to blow it. Good luck

 

[JT Sneaks]

just one play in the late games..

Double Unit Selection..

Arizona -130

Sneaks

 

[JT Sneaks]

Let's turn two in the late one:

Double Unit Selection:
SF -154

Single unit play
SF-1.5 +125

Sneaks