Why Following Consensus Reports Is A Bad Idea
The house always wins, is a phrase known by each and every gambler. But, believe it or not, consensus reports, a detailed breakdown of who the house needs to win, were not built around that concept.
Originally, consensus reports were designed as a marketing ploy by affiliates to generate traffic to websites and sign up new customers to various Sportsbooks in return for commission. Odds comparison websites had been around for nearly a decade and affiliates needed something new to attract gamblers. The idea of being able know which side the house was cheering for, drew new customers left right and center. These reports became the centerpiece of many affiliate websites which capitalized on the gambling traffic boom in the early 2000?s, (Covers, ***, Vegas Insider).
Consensus reports have gone without change and without question for nearly a decade and a half. Only a slight few with common sense have been able to see their flawed design. If you are not one of those few, the facts below should prove to be a much welcomed awakening.
Few, if any, consensus reports are actually based off real money wagers.
Focus on the big two on this one, Covers and SBR. These two consensus reports have been around since the beginning and have always been based off free play numbers. Covers consensus report numbers come from Covers Contests, a website where users pick games for free vs. other users. *** numbers come from the *** Sportsbook a website where users bet SBR Points in attempt to reach benchmarks and cash in their points for prizes. The reason many use a consensus report is to be on the same side of the house. If you are using a consensus report online, specifically one of these two, you are not on the same side as the house?because there is no house, and there is no money.
Few, if any, consensus reports actually show dollar amounts.
Pinnacle Sports, perhaps the most popular Twitter consensus report, says in their disclaimer, ?These percentages are not based off money, they are based off ticket counts. We will not disclose any information about how much money is on either side as it will give away too much information about our model.? This can be applied to almost every other consensus report as well coming from a Sportsbook Twitter account or source. Unless a consensus report is showing dollars risked or dollars won, the report does not does not indicate in any way, shape or form, who the book needs to win.
Few consensus reports are Sportsbook specifiic often posts ticket counts from various Sportsbooks, you will see below why these are meaningless. It is important to remember that every Sportsbook has different customers who bet in different ways. More often than not, different Sportsbooks will need different teams to win in the same game. The idea that there is a general need amongst all Sportsbooks is incorrect as lines and totals are all subjective to the oddsmakers controlling them, and of course, customers betting on them. If a report isn?t Sportsbook specific it doesn?t hold any weight or meaning.
Percent of action or percent of bets does not tell you anything.
Have you ever heard,
?x % of the action is on this team.?
Or?
?x % of the bets have come in on the underdog/favorite.?
While those figures may look tempting, stop next time you decide to use them as a way to decide who to bet on. Think about this?Let?s say you ran a Sportsbook. For Monday Night Football you had 100 customers bet. 90 of your customers bet Philadelphia +3 and risked a total of $90. 10 of your customers bet Indianapolis -3 and risked a total of $100.
If someone saw the consensus report, they would see, 90% of the action is on Philadelphia or 90% of the bets are on Philadelphia. They would think betting Indianapolis is the side the book needs. However, in reality, the book is cheering for 90% of the customers to win because Indianapolis is $10 more of a liability.
Just because there is a bigger percentage of bets on one side, does not mean the book needs that side to lose. It is impossible to jump to a conclusion on how much money is bet on each side based on ticket counts or betting percentages.
Just because the majority of bettors is on a side, does not mean it is a bad side to be on.
The only thing that determines if you made a good or bad bet (sharp or square) is what number you bet the game at vs. what the number closed at. If 8 of 10 bettors bet on New England, but 6 of the 10 beat the closing number, then 6 of the 10 made a good bet. If you betting strategy is to fade the majority, then you would be making a bad bet in this situation. By focusing only on fading, you are limiting your betting options and costing yourself opportunities to beat the closing number.
Reverse line is not what you think it is.
Many people love to back the underdog when the line is moving against a heavily bet popular favorite thinking that it is a trap line and the ?reverse line movement? is indicating who to bet on. The reason lines move like this is because the favorite has reached its maximum expectancy. Remember, a point spread is only a starting point based on an average expectancy. The customers control the point spread 98% of the time, while oddsmakers determine very little after opening.
Typically, the market is a week or two behind. When you do see movement like this, the lines move most early, not late. If you fade the favorite and follow ?reverse line movement? then you are making a bad bet unless you are in minutes after open, as you will be betting the market after it has been driven down. You will also find yourself going against your strategy as the Sportsbook you are tracking the line movement at likely needs the favorite to win, hence the line movement towards the underdog.
I have yet to come across a consensus report online that can help anyone win more than they could on their own. The information provided by many is nothing more than a marketing tool and is very useless. Remember, if it doesn?t show dollars, from real money wagers at a specific Sportsbook, then it doesn?t show you anything. Following consensus reports makes you a very one dimensional bettor and creates a huge bias in your thinking. Use consensus reports as nothing more than a guide to help indicate where the market is going. There are a millions of Sportsbooks on the planet. Don?t get caught focused on a small piece of the big picture, and don?t think that what happens at one is the same for every other.
opcorn2