So you like fading consensus?

[Old School]

truth of the matter is...

in this day and age of social networking and over coverage of EVERYTHING.

w/even Pregnant Mothers Weekly having their very own football "Insider"

the same knowledge or "Sharp" info and collection of data is easily available to anymore with a pc or a phone.

stands to reason that "Joe Public" can make a more informed selection each and every time he/she makes a wager.

Fading Joe Public.:SIB.how the hell ya fade everybody...:mj07:

 

[MadJack]

Yesterday was 17-8 public winners.
70% + 8-6
65%-70% 9-2

YTD 65% and above: 28-12-1
YTD 70% and above: 14-7-1
YTD 65%-70%: 14-5

Yesterday went 6-6

YTD: 34-18-1 public winner over 65%

 

[jesscolb]

Yesterday went 6-6

YTD: 34-18-1 public winner over 65%

It is working well for me...:0008....Thx for the info:00hour

 

[MadJack]

Yesterday went 6-6

YTD: 34-18-1 public winner over 65%

Saturday went 5-3 public winners using wagerline 65% and above.

YTD: 39-21-1

 

[jesscolb]

Saturday went 5-3 public winners using wagerline 65% and above.

YTD: 39-21-1

3 winning weeks and losing juice on the other week is pretty good for the "stupid" public like myself.. :0074

 

[WildBillPicks7]

Saturday went 5-3 public winners using wagerline 65% and above.

YTD: 39-21-1

Jack, are you fading the 65% and above or are you playing the public play of 65% and above?

I tried using the 90% or above 2 yrs ago and it worked a bit, last year it was 50/50 losing heavy juice so I abandoned following it.

Thanks!

:0003

 

[MadJack]

Jack, are you fading the 65% and above or are you playing the public play of 65% and above?

I tried using the 90% or above 2 yrs ago and it worked a bit, last year it was 50/50 losing heavy juice so I abandoned following it.

Thanks!

:0003

I'm only tracking it this year for the hell of it. So many fade it and I had a strong feeling that it doesn't work and obviously hasn't worked so far this year. I wish I had been betting with them because I don't know anybody sitting at 34-18 so far this year.

Some check it and if the line is going opposite they fade it but I don't know if that works well either. Picking and choosing certainly doesn't work because that would be strictly luck.

Sportsinsights is slightly different and maybe better but who knows?

 

[layinwood]

I'm willing to bet if you faded the picks going forward from this point you would make money. It might not be much but these plays won't be above 55% by the end of they ear so there's a lot of winning coming back the other way to get back from 65%. This is like finding someone you know that is a good handicapper and their first few weeks they get killed. No better time to jump on then after a few bad weeks. Problem is most people do the opposite. Jump on when someone has been winning and jumping off when they've been losing.

It's no different than handicapping pitchers in baseball. Go against average pitchers when they've had a lot of good games in a row and go on good pitches when they've had several bad games in a row.(3s usually my number)

So, we'll do a flat bet of 1k on all the rest of these picks. MJ, where do you think I'll stand at the end of the season? I'm betting I'm up. If they hadn't done so well I wouldn't be saying this. Regression to the mean.

 

[MadJack]

I'm willing to bet if you faded the picks going forward from this point you would make money. It might not be much but these plays won't be above 55% by the end of they ear so there's a lot of winning coming back the other way to get back from 65%. This is like finding someone you know that is a good handicapper and their first few weeks they get killed. No better time to jump on then after a few bad weeks. Problem is most people do the opposite. Jump on when someone has been winning and jumping off when they've been losing.

It's no different than handicapping pitchers in baseball. Go against average pitchers when they've had a lot of good games in a row and go on good pitches when they've had several bad games in a row.(3s usually my number)

So, we'll do a flat bet of 1k on all the rest of these picks. MJ, where do you think I'll stand at the end of the season? I'm betting I'm up. If they hadn't done so well I wouldn't be saying this. Regression to the mean.

Yep, I agree it might be the time to start the fade. Maybe give it one more week before hopping aboard.

 

[Cie]

I'm willing to bet if you faded the picks going forward from this point you would make money. It might not be much but these plays won't be above 55% by the end of they ear so there's a lot of winning coming back the other way to get back from 65%. This is like finding someone you know that is a good handicapper and their first few weeks they get killed. No better time to jump on then after a few bad weeks. Problem is most people do the opposite. Jump on when someone has been winning and jumping off when they've been losing.

It's no different than handicapping pitchers in baseball. Go against average pitchers when they've had a lot of good games in a row and go on good pitches when they've had several bad games in a row.(3s usually my number)

So, we'll do a flat bet of 1k on all the rest of these picks. MJ, where do you think I'll stand at the end of the season? I'm betting I'm up. If they hadn't done so well I wouldn't be saying this. Regression to the mean.

Yep.....this is exactly why I stopped fading honey holes after turning an early profit.

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

 

[HankWilliamsJr]

Yep, I agree it might be the time to start the fade. Maybe give it one more week before hopping aboard.

never make money doing this if you keep it up

Yep.....this is exactly why I stopped fading honey holes after turning an early profit.

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

kicking hank while he is down.....hank will be back...the honey holes will persufer!

:0074

 

[shawn555]

never make money doing this if you keep it up



kicking hank while he is down.....hank will be back...the honey holes will persufer!

:0074

please stop polluting the forums with your nonsense.

This is a solid thread, please try not to fuck it up.

 

[HankWilliamsJr]

please stop polluting the forums with your nonsense.

This is a solid thread, please try not to fuck it up.

think before you type.....

:0074

 

[Corley1011]

:facepalm:

 

[MadJack]

Members banned from this thread: HankWilliamsJr

 

[Cie]

never make money doing this if you keep it up



kicking hank while he is down.....hank will be back...the honey holes will persufer!

:0074

No sir. I think you'll trend up from here, just as i felt i'd trend dowm from my 9-2 start. As a result of your incessant boasting in the general forum leading up to the season, I told you I was going to fade your plays this season. After your slow start I figured I'd get off the train before you begin trending up towards 50%.

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[birdieman]

Jack when do you check the consensus %...........morning of game, hour before kick?

 

[MadJack]

Jack when do you check the consensus %...........morning of game, hour before kick?

Closing %

I don't play these, I'm just tracking it to see how it pans out over a full season.

 

[birdieman]

I'm willing to bet if you faded the picks going forward from this point you would make money. It might not be much but these plays won't be above 55% by the end of they ear so there's a lot of winning coming back the other way to get back from 65%. This is like finding someone you know that is a good handicapper and their first few weeks they get killed. No better time to jump on then after a few bad weeks. Problem is most people do the opposite. Jump on when someone has been winning and jumping off when they've been losing.

It's no different than handicapping pitchers in baseball. Go against average pitchers when they've had a lot of good games in a row and go on good pitches when they've had several bad games in a row.(3s usually my number)

So, we'll do a flat bet of 1k on all the rest of these picks. MJ, where do you think I'll stand at the end of the season? I'm betting I'm up. If they hadn't done so well I wouldn't be saying this. Regression to the mean.

OK, here's a little math to consider. Not perfect but close. We'll say 60 plays the first 4 weeks so about 15 plays per week. If you think the 65% gets back to 50% by the end of the season then the record for the next 9 weeks will be about 77-58. Playing each game for 1000 would make the bettor a profit of $13,200 assuming vig of 10%

 

[layinwood]

birdie, I would say since it's been so lopsided at 65% it might have a hard time getting back to 50. I would think 53-54 would be a better number at this point. No matter what it will be profitable. There's just no way that number holds.