So you like fading consensus?

birdieman · Sep 29, 2015

layinwood said:
birdie, I would say since it's been so lopsided at 65% it might have a hard time getting back to 50. I would think 53-54 would be a better number at this point. No matter what it will be profitable. There's just no way that number holds.

I agree and many times after a start like this there will be a drastic turn in the other direction so you may not need to fade for the rest of the season but we'll see. Think I'll join you for now and hope for the best! GL

BEACHBOY · Sep 29, 2015

Hey Jack thanks for all you do

IE · Sep 29, 2015

they used to be a sponsor here, but we had some problems with the contracts and some shady happenings.

if you could edit your post and take them out, would be appreciative not to promote them and their pay service picks and servces.

thanks.

IE · Sep 30, 2015

Bookmaker %'s

Percentages represent the number of bets placed on each side of any given wager.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL - Oct 01

MIAMI FLORIDA	-6-11080.5%	ov68.5 -11068.8%	-
CINCINNATI U	+6-11019.5%	un68.5 -11031.3%

COLLEGE FOOTBALL - Oct 02

MEMPHIS	-8.5 -11075.3%	ov61.5 -11050.0%	-
SOUTH FLORIDA	+8.5 -11024.7%	un61.5 -11050.0%	-

TEMPLE	-23-11563.6%	ov47.5 -11057.1%	-
CHARLOTTE	+23-10536.4%	un47.5 -11042.9%	-

CONNECTICUT	+18.5 -11045.7%	ov45.5 -11054.6%	-
BYU	-18.5 -11054.4%	un45.5 -11045.5%

COLLEGE FOOTBALL - Oct 03

NORTH CAROLINA	+7-10556.8%	ov61.5 -110100.0%	-
GEORGIA TECH	-7-11543.2%	un61.5 -1100.0%	-

ARMY	-	-	-
PENN STATE	-	-	-

BOWLING GREEN	-8.5 -11061.7%	ov68-11070.0%	-
BUFFALO U	+8.5 -11038.3%	un68-11030.0%	-

TOLEDO	-6.5 -11542.5%	ov55.5 -11028.6%	-
BALL STATE	+6.5 -10557.5%	un55.5 -11071.4%	-

WYOMING	+25.5 -11023.9%	ov56.5 -11033.3%	-
APPALACHIAN ST	-25.5 -11076.1%	un56.5 -11066.7%	-

OHIO	-2.5 -11567.7%	ov44-1100.0%	-
AKRON	+2.5 -10532.4%	un44-110100.0%

IE · Sep 30, 2015

MIAMI OHIO	+10.5 -10580.0%	ov47-11023.1%	-
KENT STATE	-10.5 -11520.0%	un47-11076.9%	-

KANSAS	+16-11029.7%	ov58-11050.0%	-
IOWA STATE	-16-11070.3%	un58-11050.0%	-

PURDUE	+21.5 -11043.1%	ov56-11025.7%	-
MICHIGAN STATE	-21.5 -11056.9%	un56-11074.3%	-

FLORIDA INTL	+3-11036.8%	ov56-11038.5%	-
MASSACHUSETTS	-3-11063.2%	un56-11061.5%	-

MINNESOTA U	+4-11541.0%	ov40.5 -11033.3%	-
NORTHWESTERN	-4-10559.0%	un40.5 -11066.7%	-

LOUISVILLE	+4.5 -11042.3%	ov50-11045.5%	-
NC STATE	-4.5 -11057.7%	un50-11054.6%	-

WEST VIRGINIA	+7-11566.7%	ov58-11060.7%	-
OKLAHOMA	-7-10533.3%	un58-11039.3%	-

IOWA	+6.5 -11055.4%	ov48-11060.0%	-
WISCONSIN	-6.5 -11044.6%	un48-11040.0%

IE · Sep 30, 2015

PITTSBURGH U	+5.5 -11548.6%	ov49-11012.5%	-
VIRGINIA TECH	-5.5 -10551.4%	un49-11087.5%	-

MISSISSIPPI ST	+7-11555.7%	ov59.5 -11082.4%	-
TEXAS A&M	-7-10544.3%	un59.5 -11017.7%	-

CENTRAL FLORIDA	-	-	-
TULANE	-	-	-

WESTERN KENTUCKY	-7.5 -10561.5%	ov72.5 -11096.4%	-
RICE	+7.5 -11538.5%	un72.5 -1103.6%	-

KANSAS STATE	+7.5 -11047.1%	ov49.5 -11040.0%	-
OKLAHOMA STATE	-7.5 -11052.9%	un49.5 -11060.0%	-

HOUSTON U	-5.5 -11072.9%	ov81-11077.8%	-
TULSA	+5.5 -11027.1%	un81-11022.2%	-

ARIZONA STATE	+13.5 -11019.8%	ov60-11087.5%	-
UCLA	-13.5 -11080.2%	un60-11012.5%	-

ARIZONA U	-	-	-
STANFORD	-	-	-

TEXAS	+15-11061.3%	ov72-11087.0%	-
TCU	-15-11038.7%	un72-11013.0%	-

AIR FORCE	+5-11059.7%	ov51-1108.7%	-
NAVY	-5-11040.3%	un51-11091.3%	-

ALABAMA	+2.5 -11065.9%	ov54.5 -11065.4%	-
GEORGIA	-2.5 -11034.1%	un54.5 -11034.6%	-

MISSISSIPPI	-7.5 -10581.7%	ov51.5 -11012.5%	-
FLORIDA	+7.5 -11518.3%	un51.5 -11087.5%	-

BOSTON COLLEGE	+7-11556.5%	ov39.5 -11017.4%	-
DUKE	-7-10543.5%	un39.5 -11082.6%	-

NEBRASKA	-6.5 -11057.9%	ov57.5 -110100.0%	-
ILLINOIS	+6.5 -11042.1%	un57.5 -1100.0%	-

OHIO STATE	-21-11569.8%	ov66.5 -11083.3%	-
INDIANA	+21-10530.2%	un66.5 -11016.7%	-

NO ILLINOIS	-2-11592.6%	ov51.5 -11085.7%	-
CENTRAL MICHIGAN	+2-1057.4%	un51.5 -11014.3%	-

TEXAS TECH	+17-11049.6%	ov89.5 -11096.7%	-
BAYLOR	-17-11050.4%	un89.5 -1103.3%	-

HAWAII	+24.5 -11020.0%	ov52-11062.5%	-
BOISE STATE	-24.5 -11080.0%	un52-11037.5%	-

OREGON	-7.5 -11087.9%	ov70.5 -11066.7%	-
COLORADO	+7.5 -11012.1%	un70.5 -11033.3%	-

WASHINGTON STATE	+19-11037.5%	ov70.5 -11097.4%	-
CALIFORNIA	-19-11062.5%	un70.5 -1102.6%	-

SAN JOSE STATE	+20-11040.4%	ov54.5 -11075.0%	-
AUBURN	-20-11059.6%	un54.5 -11025.0%

IE · Sep 30, 2015

IDAHO	+20.5 -10537.5%	ov65-11050.0%	-
ARKANSAS STATE	-20.5 -11562.5%	un65-11050.0%	-

UL LAFAYETTE	+18-11066.7%	ov63-11029.4%	-
LOUISIANA TECH	-18-11033.3%	un63-11070.6%	-

VANDERBILT	PK-11071.6%	ov52-11013.3%	-
MIDDLE TENN ST	PK-11028.4%	un52-11086.7%	-

SOUTH CAROLINA	-	-	-
MISSOURI	-	-	-

EASTERN MICHIGAN	+44.5 -11071.4%	ov57.5 -110100.0%	-
LSU	-44.5 -11028.6%	un57.5 -1100.0%	-

OLD DOMINION	+18.5 -11033.3%	ov52-11033.3%	-
MARSHALL	-18.5 -11066.7%	un52-11066.7%	-

ARKANSAS	+6.5 -10548.1%	ov56.5 -11025.0%	-
TENNESSEE U	-6.5 -11552.0%	un56.5 -11075.0%	-

EAST CAROLINA	-5.5 -11074.0%	ov67.5 -11075.0%	-
SMU	+5.5 -11026.0%	un67.5 -11025.0%	-

NORTH TEXAS	+16-11034.4%	ov65-11088.9%	-
SOUTHERN MISS	-16-11065.6%	un65-11011.1%	-

SOUTH ALABAMA	+6-11046.4%	ov60.5 -11081.8%	-
TROY	-6-11053.6%	un60.5 -11018.2%	-

GEORGIA SOUTHERN	-6-11071.9%	ov49-11066.7%	-
UL MONROE	+6-11028.1%	un49-11033.3%	-

FLORIDA STATE	-19-11092.3%	ov45-1100.0%	-
WAKE FOREST	+19-1107.7%	un45-110100.0%	-

MICHIGAN	-16-11073.2%	ov43-11018.8%	-
MARYLAND	+16-11026.8%	un43-11081.3%	-

COLORADO STATE	+4.5 -11069.2%	ov49.5 -11092.0%	-
UTAH STATE	-4.5 -11030.8%	un49.5 -1108.0%	-

TEX SAN ANTONIO	-3.5 -10573.6%	ov58.5 -1108.3%	-
UTEP	+3.5 -11526.4%	un58.5 -11091.7%	-

NOTRE DAME	-1-10537.7%	ov54-11077.8%	-
CLEMSON	+1-11562.3%	un54-11022.2%	-

NEW MEXICO STATE	+12.5 -11044.4%	ov69-11086.7%	-
NEW MEXICO	-12.5 -11055.6%	un69-11013.3%	-

UNLV	+6.5 -11569.4%	ov58.5 -11066.7%	-
NEVADA	-6.5 -10530.7%	un58.5 -11033.3%	-

FRESNO STATE	+8.5 -11055.0%	ov55-1100.0%	-
SAN DIEGO STATE	-8.5 -11045.0%	un55-110100.0%

its early in week, %'s will firm up as we get closer to gametime.

The Mover · Sep 30, 2015

IE does early % bets have any bearing or is the line already chopped up by so called sharps. Hope this question makes sense ?

IE · Sep 30, 2015

they usually get the best of the number.

i don't use any consensus #'s in my handicapping so don't have any long term verifiable results.

thanks.

smurphy · Sep 30, 2015

Here's the problem with your study, boss - the first two weeks were full of FCS games games with barely any data size in the consensus. Week 1 all but 3 of the 11-4-1 results were FCS games. Then again in week 2, 13 of the games in your record were useless FCS entries. These games aren't even posted on wagerline until an hour or two before they start. They have to be thrown out of the study for this to have any relevance.

MadJack · Sep 30, 2015

smurphy said:
Here's the problem with your study, boss - the first two weeks were full of FCS games games with barely any data size in the consensus. Week 1 all but 3 of the 11-4-1 results were FCS games. Then again in week 2, 13 of the games in your record were useless FCS entries. These games aren't even posted on wagerline until an hour or two before they start. They have to be thrown out of the study for this to have any relevance.

Tweak it any way you want but I'm taking all plays in account. :0008

NFL working at about the same %, should I take out the AFC South. :shrug:

birdieman · Sep 30, 2015

Jack what's the % for NFL so far. You been keeping up with that as well?

MadJack · Oct 1, 2015

birdieman said:
Jack what's the % for NFL so far. You been keeping up with that as well?

It's only 7-5. Week 2 hurt the numbers.

rrc · Oct 3, 2015

Don't know if there were any week day games..for Saturday..from Wagerline:

Army 65%

Va Tech 65%

NIU 69%

Marshall 73%

Ore 69%

Boise 67%

fla · Oct 3, 2015

I'll fade consensus if there is reverse line movement to go with it. Examples today were Illinois and North Carolina to a lesser extent. Colorado almost fits this criteria too well. +12 is now +6.5 with 66% on the Duckies. We'll see how the Buffs +7 works out in about 30 minutes.

opcorn2

Old School · Oct 3, 2015

rrc said:
Don't know if there were any week day games..for Saturday..from Wagerline:

Army 65% covers losing 20-14 as a 25.5 road dog

Va Tech 65% loses out right as a 3 point home fav 17-13

NIU 69% loses 29-19 as a 1 point road fav

Marshall 73% cover 27-7 as a 17 point home fav

Ore 69% covers 41-24 ..as a 6.5 road fav

Boise 67% wins 55-0 as a 28 point home fav.

opcorn2

rrc · Oct 3, 2015

One other issue...

One other issue...

When keeping track of these plays, what lines to use.

For example when I wrote these plays down this morning right before the kick off of the first games, the lines were...

Oregon -7 and Boise -25 1/2 certainly complicates things a bit.

Old School · Oct 4, 2015

rrc said:
When keeping track of these plays, what lines to use.

For example when I wrote these plays down this morning right before the kick off of the first games, the lines were...

Oregon -7 and Boise -25 1/2 certainly complicates things a bit.

I would assume Jack is using the closing line at the same documented site each and every time..

So what's the scoop this week..

Don't know if there were any week day games..for Saturday..from Wagerline:

Army 65% covers losing 20-14 as a 25.5 road dog

Va Tech 65% loses out right as a 3 point home fav 17-13

NIU 69% loses 29-19 as a 1 point road fav

Marshall 73% cover 27-7 as a 17 point home fav

Ore 69% covers 41-24 ..as a 6.5 road fav

Boise 67% wins 55-0 as a 28 point home fav.

are the 6 listed above the plays that shook out for this week?

MadJack · Oct 4, 2015

Old School said:
I would assume Jack is using the closing line at the same documented site each and every time..

So what's the scoop this week..

Don't know if there were any week day games..for Saturday..from Wagerline:

Army 65% covers losing 20-14 as a 25.5 road dog

Va Tech 65% loses out right as a 3 point home fav 17-13

NIU 69% loses 29-19 as a 1 point road fav

Marshall 73% cover 27-7 as a 17 point home fav

Ore 69% covers 41-24 ..as a 6.5 road fav

Boise 67% wins 55-0 as a 28 point home fav.

are the 6 listed above the plays that shook out for this week?

Thanks, will update YTD later on. :0008

Old School · Oct 4, 2015

so is "Joe Square" still making money hand over fist?

So you like fading consensus?

Registered User

Registered User

Administrator

Administrator

Administrator

Administrator

Administrator

Registered User

Administrator

cartographer

Administrator

Registered User

Administrator

Registered User

Registered User

OVR

Registered User

OVR

Administrator

OVR

We value your privacy