Sometimes you just gotta laugh.............

[maverick2112]

This is typical of the last 2 months in my wagering career........last 60 days...........45 losing days....15 winning days...........now i really reduced my units substancially about the middle of football season because I just couldnt seem to put 2 or 3 winning days together, so I decided to cut back until I hit a little bit of a streak. That streak still hasnt came. Thank God I did that, otherwise I would be in the poor house but mentally this is getting on the verge of ridiculious........the last 30 days I have had 26 losing days and 4 winning days.........Monday night I took Wyoming -2 at home........home record 12-1 and hadnt lost 3 consecutive conference games since 1994........result Loss

Tuesday had Mavs 0ver 204...score tied 98-98 with 9 sec left and Sczerbiak hits game winner......Result Loss

Tonight I played 1 teaser......

Utah State-2
Fresno State -2...............USU was 11-0 at home..FSU was 12-0 at home...............Result.... both teams lost at home............

Still trying to stay positive............

 

[ststrl]

GL next time man, most of us are in the Dog house now, but our luck will change,

Cheers :toast:

 

[Allnet]

Hang in there, but proceed with caution. Experiencing the same, so I pretty much have cut back to posting 1 play per day , still can't hit. Friday Tip, play Valentines, may have high ROI.

 

[Wilson]

I guess misery loves company. I usually supplement my income by about 10 grand a year. Not this year...Since about November, I have experienced the same trouble as you....weird unexplainable shit evolving into routine Wilson bets are just doomed. Paying the man 1000-1500 per week is not fun...keep thinking..it will turn around...well, we are going into the fourth month of this dry spell.
I Will just beat my meat tonight..then we will see if it gets any better Saturday. **** you losing streak :thefinger

 

[michtom]

hang in there man, take it slow maybe 1 game a night and work from there.I was just in your shoes, things are turning around but its a long haul to get back what i lost.

 

[Morris]

In the same boat this year. Can't do anything right 1-5 last nite. Just isn't fun anymore How can anyone be that bad, I get the choice of teams and can't pick 2 in a row??? I'm done.

Bob

 

[buddy]

I'm really going out on a limb here...

Gonna' give my opinion on what it takes to improve one's handicapping.

Wheww!

Here goes...

Each and every day, I take down the opening lines from XXX XXXXs' Island Free Express. Thats's first.

Then I handicap.

Before I go any further, allow me to explain something...

My method of handicapping is based on a theory of what I believe to a series of recoccuring patterns.

I believe the Linesmaker is like a fisherman. He has a tackle box with several different types of lures. All of his lures have proven to be very effective. Every lure he uses is capable of catching many fish, big and small. In effect, these are his favorites. He doesn't need to buy new ones, because the old lures are time tested and catch more and more fish each and every year.

It's safe to say we are the fish.

We're hungry for something to eat, but on the other hand, we don't want someone to eat us.

So, how do we avoid being caught?

The trick is being able to spot the lure.

The key point here is what I said in the above paragraph...

QUOTE]Every lure he uses is capable of catching many fish, big and small. In effect, these are his favorites. He doesn't need to buy new ones, because the old lures are time tested and catch more and more fish each and every year.[/QUOTE]

This is my opinion...The only way you can identify the lure / lures is by doing a review of the game card and circling those matchups which were decided by wide ats margins and those matchups which fell close to the number.

Remember! The Linesmaker is using the same lures over and over!

The key to improving one's handicapping, imo, is being able to do a review of a game card and trying to identify some clue or pattern as to why some matchups covered by large ats margins and others fell very close to the number.

Remember! If the Linesmaker is using the same lures over and over, then the clues or patterns will be reoccuring.

The trick is going backwards.

The obstacle is time.

That's enough for now.

Feeback will be much appreciated.

 

[Morris]

Buddy,
I see what you're saying I think. Games that look too easy are go against games?? Wake looked too easy last nite so I went against and lost again, I can't seem to put a couple together. I haven't paid the book in 4 years but this year twice already ( He's local and lets it ride ) I'm lost!!

Bob

 

[buddy]

Bob,

Yes and no.

First off, WFOREST -2 v Duke was a high profile, ESPN game. Personally, I tend to stay away from these type games.

Yesterday, there were 17 games of 39 which covered the number by 10 or more points.

I didn't have any of the 17.

That's not good.

For example, let's take CS SACRAMENTO +10 (+9) v E. Wash

CS SACRAMENTO is not a good team, yet yesterday they won outright beating a decent EWash team, 77-71. They covered the number by +15 ats which is a very comfortable margin.

My question would be, was there a clue in either portfolio which could have pointed to CS SAC as the probable side in this matchup?

In review, I'd say yes.

One premise I have in handicapping is that the burden of responsibility is always on the favorite to win and cover.

No matter how bad the dog is, the favorite has to have the credentials to get the job done.

Before I go any further and confuse both you and anyone else who reads this, I'm gonna get your email addy from Jack and just use you as the target of my confusion!!!

Check your email.

 

[maverick2112]

Bob.........

In the same boat this year. Can't do anything right 1-5 last nite. Just isn't fun anymore How can anyone be that bad

I feel them same as you................like 2-4 last night tonight I am 0-4

Heres what I played......

Cornell +4.5....Dartmouths win ended a 10 gm losing streak Loss

Penn-11.5.............They win by 11 Loss

Princeton-9......prince coming off penn loss, probably just a bad pick......Loss

Toronto -2........G State hadnt won at Toronto since 1996.....Toronto is just a different now that Vince Carter is playing with wins over Indy, at Milwaukee, L.a. Clips and Atlanta going 4-0 in that span..........result Loss..................

Now I can take going 2-2 or even 1-3.......... but 0-4.............F*** I could do better picking out of a hat. And thats is how is has been going the last month and a half...........did I mention I had the East in the All-Star game on sunday +5.............we have an 8 pt lead with 2 minutes to go and it goes to overtime.....then we can win in ot only to have a foul on a 3 pt shot.......so what you say, we are up by 2 and if Kobe hits all 3 we still win our bet. So what happens.......he hits 2 of 3 to put it into 2nd overtime and we lose by 10. Its hard to imagine all the bad things that had to happen in the last 2 minutes to actually lose that bet. I think my capping is sound its just hard to believe I could be losing game after game every night. Now I am not going overboard as I put like 1/4 of a unit on each game tonight so a net loss of 1.1 units which will not kill me but I am just wondering..........WHEN DOES THE BOOKIE LOSE GAMES LIKE THIS..............Sorry about ranting on and on..........it does give me some comfort to know that other good cappers are experiencing this same b.s.

 

[ussrv]

maverick2112


I have also had a bad year, mostly due to chasing my money on a bad college football season.


Something that I have done that has helped me to see the games a little better is to take a few weeks off.

When I came back I was fresh. Over time dobut will be replaced with confidence in your picks.

You may also want to try and wager on a sport in which you do not follow as much. I have spent some time in the nhl fourm and have learned a lot from the guys in there. Don't post much but I do a lot of reading. I have also done a lot of half time wagering. I think it is any area in which the handicappers have a great advantage. You have the advantage of seeing how the teams are playing , which can help you make a wise choice for the second half.

Hope some of this helped.

Keep your head up and the winners will come.

 

[maverick2112]

USSRV..............thats probably a good idea to take some time off. I was going to do that a couple of times the past few months but to be honest I really thought some of the breaks would even out, but they dont seem to be doing that, anyhow thanks for the encouraging words. I really havent been chasing (Thank God) its just been consistently paying the man week after week since Sept 1st. Thanks again.............

 

[theGibber1]

when i hit a bad cold streak i fade myself..


step 1. pick the games you like


step 2. bet against your picks


step 3. collect your money


repeat as needed


GL

 

[Wonderdog]

My 2 cents........I am having the best year I have had in years.
Some of the reasons are because of the great guys you can pick up on. There are diffrent boards that have guys who kill in diffrent spots. NBA... Big10...Pac 10 and so on.
These guys have a lot of hits on there post. There is a reason.
Some guys are great on there insight of teams...Box N one.
Is great on the East coast. He has great post and I feel the guy knows his ship on east coast games. When he takes a west coast game I don`t take it with the same out look.
Today from information I made out on St Louis line droped but how many knew E Carl top scorer was out and not with the team.
Also Buff point guard broke his finger Wed nite and is done for the year, nice Ball St win.
You said you watch trends...Well I do to but I remember trends are broken at sometime...Like you I wonder why it happens when Im on them. All but Brown last night OH Baby we Money lined them.
I look at line movement...A downward move is much more important than a up move...
The up move is like cows in a heard...when one goes the rest follow. Ship I guess the down moves are the same but it sounds good.
At this time of year you can tell who is good at home...Like East Mich..Sucks on road but at home they are a diffrent team.
TV games if a team gets beat up on ESPN like Houston did last Sat. Joe public says these guys suck...When they should say they got the ship kicked out of them by a very good Lovill team.
The next game Houston go`s OT with the same team that beat Cinn. BUT they cover.... AND the line moved up.
Remember many of Joe B Public remembers the first time they see a team. Many teams will get better. But Joe B stills remembers them as a bad team.Makes some Lines to low.
I watch Big 10 Mo vally MAC and Colonial. I seam to get a feel for many teams like Ind....
They played Penn St the line was 23 or so....I looked at this game and said why would IU want to beat this Penn St team that bad.
Well they come out kicked some Ars got a lead were happy and quit kicking Ars.....Today I liked penn St + points.. They stink but they just lost to Iowa by a bunch like 3 games ago.....
Why would Iowa want to kell them 2 times....
It dont always work but if you put your self in there spot you can some times get a feel of what your team will do. Look at KY they were mauling teams till today.After getting a big lead they let up..
Well there feelings for LSU werent the same as beating big bad Geo.

One more thing I like to watch. On NBA if a team goes on the road and has a good road trip I like to go aganst them the first game back.
If they had a bad road trip take them the first game back.
I think it has something to sleeping with the WIFE.
There I let you know my secret to being rich...Well maybe not rich but doing A OK. If you need a guiding hand to some good information drop me a note at

edit out email, please do not post email addresses on fourm.

Ill share my hot spots and hot guys with you.
Good Luck Dog

 

[wannabe whale]

Mav,
Very rarely give advice and you will find that most guys in here don't like to say "do this" and "do that"-but I am hoping to help you break your funk.
Ideas:
Relax-this is NOT a race. If you want to win over the years-be patient. That may mean a night or 2 of no plays or a few. With yesterdays BIG card-I only had 5 plays.
Buddy made one of the best points I have read here. I eliminate games FIRST. Take out the TRAPS and games where the line is right on. Do you know how to tell if the line is right on?? If not study the line and its history. I bet games when the line is wrong and there are moves against it the opposite way. The Steam moves have shit the bed this year. Go to Don Best and there is a free line service-it is slow-but you can at least see all the lines. I have the $100 a month service and it pays for itself-just as a scoreboard. Bottom line-use your RESOURCES.
Follow the great cappers here. Most don't post their record and get in very few converstions here. Don't go with their plays-but use them to confirm what you have already known. Sometimes you are wrong-but you are still on the right side. Use the people here-but also USE their info. I could care less about most picks and records-but just 1 guy telling me someones point guard is out because of the flu is worth it.
Patience(stay AWAY ffom big TV games and look at the small conferemces). I have had more money on the Tenn-Martins and FIUs than the Dukes and Syracuses..

Believe me I have lost alot in my day. But you can learn from mistakes. Don't GUESS at a game-be informed.

GL WW

 

[buddy]

Wannabe Whale just made an excellent point here, guys.

Be very, very careful with high profile, tv games.

This point should not be ignored.

 

[wannabe whale]

Buddy-nice to see we are on the same page. Last year was the first time that I started to look at the days slate different. I now eliminate games first and try to stay away from the "lure"-as you said. I can't tell you the last time that I had big money on a TV game. If I want to still play them-hell we all do-I put them all in a small parlay to have action. This way I have action and the possibility of hitting a parlay.
I usually have a larger slate than most to choose from as I play ALL sports and props. FF BB NHL Nascar Golf + props. Some call it being a degenerate-I call it line searching and being informed.

GL WW

 

[TJBELL]

Maverick: 99% of the time I play the same plays (although less money) that I post on Wgrline
. Was running late yesterday and played none of them. (except Cinn 1/2 time, which went 0-1-1)

Went 12-1-1 at Wgrline. Doesn't it figure???

Detail Record for TJBELL on 2/15/03
Date Sport Game Score Wager Amount Result Units
2/15/03 NCAAB La Lafayette
at New Mexico St 69
58 La Lafayette
+3 500 Won +500
2/15/03 NCAAB George Mason
at William & Mary 60
43 George Mason
-3.5 500 Won +500
2/15/03 NCAAB Wofford
at Geo Southern 68
69 Wofford
+1 500 Push +0
2/15/03 NCAAB Butler
at Detroit Mercy 66
63 Butler
+1 500 Won +500
2/15/03 NCAAB Brown
at Pennsylvania 66
73 Brown
+14 500 Won +500
2/15/03 NCAAB Eastern Wash
at Northrn Arizona 78
75 Eastern Wash
-2 500 Won +500
2/15/03 NCAAB Cincinnati
at Nc Charlotte 64
74 Cincinnati
-2 500 Loss -550
2/15/03 NCAAB Cal Irvine
at Idaho 65
52 Cal Irvine
-3.5 500 Won +500
2/15/03 NCAAB Illinois
at Purdue 61
70 Purdue
-2 500 Won +500
2/15/03 NCAAB Oregon
at Oregon St 80
63 Oregon
-3 500 Won +500
2/15/03 NCAAB Arkansas Lr
at Middle Tenn St 74
58 Arkansas Lr
+7 500 Won +500
2/15/03 NCAAB Santa Barbara
at Northridge St 67
58 Santa Barbara
-2.5 500 Won +500
2/15/03 NCAAB Weber St
at Montana St 70
58 Weber St
-2.5 500 Won +500
2/15/03 NCAAB St Marys Ca
at Portland 71
59 St Marys Ca
-2 500 Won +500

:shrug: :shrug: :shrug:

 

[ussrv]

Have had the same thing happen to me before TJ.


When you don't have money on them they all seem to win :shrug:

 

[TJBELL]

Just the law of the Gamblin' Gods!!!! Oh well, next time I play them FIRST, then post at you know where.

How true!!!!