Sports wagering continues to be a losing proposition for EVERYONE!

[ndnfan]

One last thought, having lived in Sin City so many years. The hotels they build there are getting bigger and bigger. The sports books are getting smaller and smaller.

That is definately the truth! The Vegas Sportsbooks are not the big moneymakers for the casinos....it's those damn slots. Heck, you have a lot of these sportsbooks out there now being called "sports lounges." In other words, you even have to PAY for a drink. That tells you something right there.

But seriously, I think there are some good handicappers and some bad ones. It's like anything. Not everyone is a major league baseball player, but does that mean it can't be done? Not at all, but it does mean that at some point in a career, one has to be honest with oneself and call it quits if the potential isn't there. The chance of a little leaguer to make it to the bigs is extremely slim -- yet everyone still gives it a try... just the same as the stats that you throw out on gambling for a living.[/QUOTE

This is an interesting way too look at it also that was posted by wondo....Not every baseball player becomes a Major leaguer, not every wanna be actor or actress makes it to the top. Every golf course or bowling alley has their "best," and even though you hear people talking like "they should go pro" etc, the fact of the matter is, most would not be able to compete competitively with the pros. In other words, it is a small amount of people that are successful.

Also with the internet the last several years, these old trends or angles sometimes aren't near as effective as maybe they once were, so sometimes your capping style has to change with the times. You gotta change with the times. Heck, some of the stuff I used to look at say 9 or 10 years ago, I'm laughing at now at how low of importance some of that stuff is in capping.Then again the the amount of info from the net, it's springing a lot more very good players as well.

YYZ....as for varying bets, I keep around 90% of my bets the same and only go higher the other 10%. Many agree with my thinking and some don't and some are successful at it, but that's just what works for me.

The way I look at it is like this....I'm handicapping to try to take less of the "gamble" out of gambling. When you put say 3 or 4 times the amount on a certain play, you're taking a "gamble" because of the possible error, blown call, etc. stuff. Just my view on it, but then again it's more than a hobby to me.

Good luck.

-ndnfan

 

[Stag]

Play every NFL home dog until your funeral.

No capping. Nothing else.

Not only will you not lose money, you'll have some extra coin in your pocket.

Stag

 

[Private Petey]

win money

win money

Not EVERYBODY loses money betting Mr. YYZ.

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

Play every NFL home dog until your funeral.

STAG, buddy!!!!

where have ya been??????

 

[maverick2112]

I think the reasons the sportbooks are getting smaller isnt because people win to much, its because of the simple fact that you can utilize the casino space much better and profitable by setting up slots and games that have hardly any overhead(Employees) and take in more $$$ per hour than any sportsbook could.

 

[maverick2112]

Seriously........I would like to know how many people can honestly say that since they started betting......whether it be 50 yrs ago,last year or last week are you up or down $$$$. My first sports bet was in 1980 and I am down $$$$ for the last 22 years. I see a lot of people have good years in certain sports but what does it really mean if say you win $50,000 in foots this year but you lost $100,000 last year.......its still a losing even though you are doing good now.

 

[djv]

As I understand at one time there were close to 20 books in LV.
Now there are 6 majior ones and another 4 or 5 little pups. But how many years back did we even here about off shore. Hey someones kicking butts. There are over 25 off shore books I was told. That includes Canada and couple other way outs. So no there not all going belly up. Theres more now then before. It just means LV is no longer king of the hill. Lets not forget about each town in America that has its local guy. Lot and Lot of money still being made by the books. And everyone here knows the truth is only 5% of sports players make a proffit. That fact has been there for last 20 years. So it is correct to say some make money. But if we have 1000 players at this site you can do the math. Hell make it 10% winners. Still chit load of losers. So YYZ is not all wet here folks. It's human nature to say hell yes im winning.

 

[Billy]

The reason the books in Vegas are shrinking is because the
offshores are expanding..........

 

[theGibber1]

There is no science to this, as so many guys would have you believe

this is complete horse shit... what are you suggesting that ive made good money over the past few years by flipping a coin??:shrug:

 

[theGibber1]

here is the science.. all you need is to do homework for every game.. and have the discipline to stick to it

no parlays..

no halftime bets..!!!! cant stress this enough

no nba..

cut down on teasers..

play mostly dogs and unders ( i am aware i picked a fav and over tonight)

bet on the team w/ better special teams

check for injuries ( not obvious ones like mcnabb, but the ones you dont here about.. linemen and what not)

fade the public

dont be afraid to play ML dogs

bet on home dogs...

no i dont make a living off of gambling.. but i feel i could if i had to:shrug:

 

[kcwolf]

One last thought.

Didn't mean to emphasize the sportsbooks thing. Sportsbooks still win money every year.

yyz, have to commend you for bringing up this subject. You brought up many things that are totally true.

I'll leave this thread with a little more reality that yzz has alluded to -- I capp games for 16 hours today, and might lose some money. That is frustrating, and is what yyz was trying to point out.

There are days when I lose large amounts of money, and handicap games for more hours than you want to know. Not exactly fun, let alone profitable.

But hard work pays off if you know what your doing, else give it up.

 

[Nick Douglas]

yyz,

I strongly suggest that you give up betting on sports. You have a volitile combination in that you have a desire to win money but you lack the ability to do it. You have to change one or the other or gambling on sports will continue to frustrate you. Either accept that you will always lose and bet for action, or make the decision to become a better handicapper and follow through on what it takes to do so.

One word of caution if you decide to go that second route. Some people have a natural talent for things and some don't. Robert McKee, who wrote a brilliant book about screenwriting, gave a great example of how natural talent relates to that profession. Some people can tell a story about the most mundane activity like dropping their kids off at school and keep their friends enraptured the entire time. Others can tell a heart wrenching tale of backstabbing and betrayal at work and bore their friends to tears. The point is that to be a great screenwriter, you usually have to just have that natural ability to tell compelling stories.

Some people are naturally great handicappers because they can just "see" the things they need to look for and can "feel" that a team is going to either overachieve or underachieve on any given day. That natural talent, combined with hard work, discipline and very thick skin, is what money making handicappers are made of. yyz is right in a sense because every handicapper will eventually hit a cold streak worse than they ever envisioned at some point and if you post your plays in a public forum long enough, the emperor will eventually lose his clothes. Even a year or even two years of losses are not catastrophic when you realize that handicapping is a lifelong pursuit for many. Over the course of their lifetimes, they still end up turning a profit.

One last thing. I have to agree with ndnfan on the importance of finding the best line. A great gambler would probably expect a ROI on every dollar wagered of maybe 2% or 3%. I guess some might aim higher. Anyway, a 2% or 3% ROI disappears completely if you lose about 5 cents on each play. If you hit 50% of your plays and your average line is +105, you are rich. At only $1,000 wagered per day you are making $9000+ per year. If you hit the same percentage on the same plays but you had to play those games at +100, you are only at break even. Same principle applies to betting pointspreads as well.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Quite an interesting topic--my 2cents if I may.
Sports wagering has inherent risks with 2 exceptions.
The marketers(in many forms) and those that middle and scalp such as IE.
I use to track cappers since 1993 until last year when I quit.
Now mind you this is only my experience but in that time I have seen VERY few beat the NFL consistantly. Possible the only exception (however only 2 year tracking period) was fellow by name of pbjpro who went 1-2 in Hilton contest for 2 straight years and disappeared.
Now on the flip side I have seen cappers of some minority sports cars,tennis golf ect: have substantial gains annually over 4 year period. It is my opinion this occurs for several reason. Books linemakers are not near as sharp and spend less time and think they can offset with excess juice,quite the contrary in NFL where they will go as far as to give no juice for your action.Also I think there are far less variables in one on one sports then team sports with numerous refs weighing in outcome also.
Thru the years on forums it is quite agonizing to see posts of so many of ones forums brothers, signal by emotion in their threads that they are betting more than they can afford to lose. Sports betting can be a very rewarding, challenging and entertaining outlet if kept in perspective. While my peanut wagers will not make much difference win lose or draw I don't think anyone enjoys it anymore than me. However I am quilty in one aspect if I figured in something I brought up last year,the time value of money. If I spent the extra time in my business that I spend on sports I would hate to see what my entertainment cost,but fortunately I ground it out in business 20+ years and all work and no play------.
And while on this subject from a logical stand point I have always wondered what if a person with the intellegence and initiative and energy to cap 12+ hours every day would use these attributes and drive in engaging in owning and operating their own business. Success would be all but quaranteed and they could kick back in later years with no risk.
Or maybe it is the risk that drives them! If so why not apply these efforts to the market. Incorrect judgement is not a guaranteed loss but can turn out correct in long run or you can determine what portion you are willing to risk with a stop loss, but your gains are unlimited. Would seem like a no brainer to me.

I hope I am not sounding like a know it all. They are just my opinions based on the school of hard knocks as I have yet to see a mistake ever posted that I have not been guilty of at least once.

 

[goldcupsports]

Dogs,

You do bring up some good points. There are folks out there that can beat the not so popular stuff like golf or what have ya. Those are also easier to find scalps for.

 

[yyz]

yyz,

I strongly suggest that you give up betting on sports. You have a volitile combination in that you have a desire to win money but you lack the ability to do it.


I've never done this for serious cash, so the desire to win money is fairly nominal, Nick. The desire comes in wanting to be 'wiser' than the linesmakers. As far as ability goes, what is ability in this game? That is a question you just can't answer that easily. You can't tell me that there are not some people in this vast world, who have won based on pure horse shit luck. The law of large numbers will see to that. Somewhere, there is a guy who does nothing more than look at the lines, make his plays, and collect. Does he have ability? What about the person who toils 20 hours a day to find that microscopic edge, and goes 5-5? In this game, ability equates to winning. If I liked a team based on the head coach's hat size, and turned a 70% win rate due to that wonderful bit of "capping?, (pun intended) I would be a hero, and "great capper", based on the criteria of winning more than I lose.

The whole point of this thread was, and is, you can't handicap all the shit that occures during EVERY game! Thus, if all these things happen, there are multitudes of games where your handicapping had zero to do with your winning or losing your wager.

Look at a few examples:

Remember the Lakers/Dallas game a few weeks ago? Dallas owned them until the huge comeback from LA in the fourth, where they errased a 27 point deficit. Are you telling me that the people who covered that Laker bet, used their "ability" to win that bet? What about peole who had the "over" in a game that goes to double overtime before it covers by 3? What about the missed call on a guys foot being in bounds, so the TD stands, and you lose by half a point? One guy could be dead wrong on all three wagers (handicapping wise) yet be 3-0! And you want to tell me that is the difference between "ability" and humility? I don't buy it.


You have to change one or the other or gambling on sports will continue to frustrate you. Either accept that you will always lose and bet for action, or make the decision to become a better handicapper and follow through on what it takes to do so.

Again, how does one become "a better handicapper"? I don't even spend 10% of the time I used to on this, because I did realize long ago, that I can't make money at this. I still believe that over the long haul, no one does. You can't beat the "unknown" in sports, and it will eventually get to your money. If you spent all day making a beautiful glass sculpture, and were carrying it to someone, and all of the sudden someone tripped you, you would feel like shit. Now, somedays you don't get tripped, but it happens enough. When do you say, "This is not worth all my time and trouble"?

By your own admission, Nick, you are in the toilet this year. Bankroll down 58% over the year? But, somehow, you feel you will get the ship righted. Well, good luck, sir. I think someday you will come to realize it ain't gonna happen. Now, you seem to know your shit........Are you a shitty handicapper, or did you get fuhked? Maybe this is just your time to be behind the eight ball, and you can withstand the rigors of this streak. Or, maybe it's a losing proposition.......only time and money supply will tell.


Some people are naturally great handicappers because they can just "see" the things they need to look for and can "feel" that a team is going to either overachieve or underachieve on any given day. That natural talent, combined with hard work, discipline and very thick skin, is what money making handicappers are made of.

Bullshit! WTF is that? They have a magic 8-Ball? Tarot cards? Rabbit's foot? It's skill, coupled with luck, and it always will be. Like a poker or 21 player, you can know the odds inside and out, but if you ain't got the cards, you ain't got the cards. Of course, in poker you can bluff, in sports......well, yer just fuhked.


For me, the game never got too expensive, and I am thankful for that. I play for pennies now, and can live with the wins or losses. As I stated eralier though:

If a guy can lose a game he fixed, what makes you think you have a shot in this game?

For those of you ahead of the curve, I wish you continued luck/success.

 

[djv]

YYZ years ago now that you mention just alittle effort and you can be as lucky or unlucky. Dont matter if the guy that does 8 hours a day at this. Or the one that looks at the line and says this one and this one. I Remember a angle some used years ago that went like this for NFL. Play all home dogs but not greater then 3. Play all home favs greater then 4 but not over 10. Went good for afew years who knows why. Then fell right on its a??. Took 2 seconds to capp each week. This year its home dogs again. Takes 2 seconds to capp. Its there for the taking who knows why. However all these are subject to luck good and bad. Like all those over players in the Az ST/K St game.

 

[ndnfan]

I'm just gonna say one more thing on this subject and I hope I'm done with my opinions or whatever you wanna call them.

Way too many people just think it's luck because of all the fluke stuff that happens in the games.

Then again, why wouldn't you expect people to feel this way expecially when you put "beaucoup" time into a game only too see it lose from an error or a blown call. Not only does this give you the feeling like you "just wasted x amount of hours of your time" handicapping a game, but you lost money to boot.

If you look at the numbers, the difference between a successful handicapper and one that just breaks even or loses money over the long run is so close that most "recreational" bettors just DON'T see the point of putting all the time an effort needed to push you into the "elite" category that win over the long haul. In other words, when capping something like football or basketball where you need to hit at 52.5% to break even, the difference between someone who breaks even or loses a little and the successful bettor is only around 5 to 10%. This is much the reason most "recreational" bettors are only seeing the shorterm results and can't understand when a successful bettor has a 1-3 day or even an o-fer day. They might have played and went 3-1 without putting near the effort as the guy that wen 3-1 did.

The above is what the majority of bettors don't understand. It's so easy to look short term and come to the conclusion yyz and other come to, but it DOES take a lot to push you over the edge to the "elite" category. Even though that elite player may only be 5% better than a break even player, it might require to put 300% more time into the games. Plus you do have to be looking at the right things in the games that have the most meaning on the outcome, which a lot of players don't do.

Long term people....with good money management, good discipline and being able to keep a clear mind by forgetting the bad day or week that may have just occured. Then again if you have the money management thing down, these losses shouldn't even be having much bearing on you whatsoever as it's just a low amount of your bankroll.....Most people just wanna get rich quick and make it all in one day....heck that's what scamdicappers out there feed off of in their marketing of their services. It's just human nature. People just don't understand sportsbetting is NOT a sprint. It just ain't gonna happen to most, except for "those extremely luck ones that can just look at the lines and have a good day as yyz said" Trust me if they do that over the long term, they will end up down, but sure it is possible short term for some to have success doing that.

I understand how many sportsbettors come to the conclusion that yyz and other have, I just have a little different view of it.

-ndnfan

 

[wondo]

yyz,


Some people are naturally great handicappers because they can just "see" the things they need to look for and can "feel" that a team is going to either overachieve or underachieve on any given day. That natural talent, combined with hard work, discipline and very thick skin, is what money making handicappers are made of.

Bullshit! WTF is that? They have a magic 8-Ball? Tarot cards? Rabbit's foot? It's skill, coupled with luck, and it always will be. Like a poker or 21 player, you can know the odds inside and out, but if you ain't got the cards, you ain't got the cards. Of course, in poker you can bluff, in sports......well, yer just fuhked.

I greatly disagree here. Looking from within a game or a sport, I would argue that a good coach or player has an idea/feel of what to do. I always use baseball because that is what I am familiar with. But hopefully this makes sense.

A good baseball hitter guesses pitches. It's damned near impossible to hit what's thrown, as most people teach. It's not a pure guess and swing, a la Pat Burrell, but a more controlled aggression and educated guess.

So then the pitcher counters and tries to not establish a pattern of pitch selection that would allow the batter to better guess what's coming. Anyway, it's a constant back and forth battle. It favors those that make the most educated decision as to what the other is thinking.

The manager and coaches do their own guessing and strategizing. If things were mere fickle fate, there would be no sense in having a coach or strategy. All you can do is put your team in the best position to succeed and play the highest percentage.

That is what I love about baseball -- you have 162+ games to distinguish yourself. Those that understand what to do and what to look for have a chance to play a better sample of games to let the better strategy work out in their favor. Usually it works out more favorably for those that understand the game. But of course, the best baseball teams win around 60% of their games.

Same thing I see applies to gambling. It's playing the percentages. Of course things will happen. But the more consistently that you put yourself in a position to succeed, over time, it will benefit you. Gambling is not a 'playoff' sport where you need to sell out on a single game. But instead, consistently put yourself in the best position to win and you will do ok over time.

Again, I don't mean to diminish your understanding of the gambling industry. You probably know a lot more than I know. But I disagree with you in the sense that you can't look at factors that put your bets in the best position to succeed. I feel that you can do that.

What might be argued is that the 10% vig is too much to overcome. But that doesn't seem to be your real arguement. I always wonder who will still bet if the US goverment starts to regulate and tax it -- then you have a problem of juice and problem of tax and you need to win that much more to make your time spent worth it.

 

[yyz]

You are not really disagreeing, wondo, rather you are agreeing that it is "skill coupled with luck".


A good baseball hitter guesses pitches

So he needs to get lucky in those guesses. Now, I see your point, where you are saying a guy who studies tendancies, has a better chance of guessing correctly, over a guy who just guesses with a lesser knowledge. i.e, a bettor with more knowledge will fair better than someone else.

Still, I maintain that a bettor has way too many 'bounces' to overcome, and better be on the right side of those coin flips to stay afloat.

I would be interested to here from the rest of you reading this thread.

 

[Spock]

very interesting thread yyz.

Also great contributions by various members.

Spock does not have a lot of things to say on this topic. Couple of things to say ..

Overall when it comes to gambling in any form I have had more good luck than bad. How do u define luck ? Bcoz any event that happens can occur in a multitude of ways.

Similar to flipping a coin I think that the good luck is equalled by the bad side.

There was a thread by Nolan some time ago in which he said that if u lose a game by a tremendous comeback by other team than it is a matter of time b4 u will b on the winning side in a similar situation.

So if luck is gonna cancel out then the winning % will b factored by the ability of the individual either in cappin the games .. or coat-tailing the right person.

Regarding whether people make money in sports .. maximum end up losing their ass .. but its more of money management issue than luck .. I have switched to making plays on a % basis (money management by Thunder) and was playing same amount of units in baseball (as ndnfan does) and this has helped me tremendously. None of the crazy plays to get the money back bcoz the losses are also being limited. But truth remains that there are people who make money and if there are a few people who make money they must b doing SOMETHING right ... my guess is good cappin + proper money management.

I had a couple of drinks so what I had written on top may no make sense. If it does .. well .. guess thats your GOOD LUCK

Live Long and Prosper
Spock