Sports wagering continues to be a losing proposition for EVERYONE!

[yyz]

That's right.......EVERYONE.

I don't wanty to hear how you made money all your life on this shit, because the fact remains.......you haven't. I don't want to hear that I am full of sour grapes, because I can't win, so I am 'bashing' others. The bottom line is that you can't win doing this!

I look at the recent melt down of Nolan as a good point of reference. A couple of seasons back, he was thought of as a god. Now.....he questions his own existence! Look at the beating Ray is taking. Wins, come, and wins go, but wins don't just keep coming.

I am a firm believer that a person can go an extended runs, where they will have a nice turn of fortune. That is what happens with "good handicappers". I have been at sites like this for over four years, and have yet to find one single poster who has stood the test of time! You can write all the shit you want about how, "Yeah.....I've made money at this for 20 years", and I will say again:

"You are full of shit!"

This game is not about skill, but like any other form of gambling, it is about luck. You can handicap all night long, and be dead balls on cortrect in your assessment of the game, and have a blown call cost you the cash. You can be perfect in your reasoning, and have a punt blocked for a spread cover the wrong way. Don't tell me about your fuhking skills as a capper.

Nolan puts in more work, and sees more spin and angles than anyone I have ever seen, and he can't break .500 the past 12 months. Why? Is he losing his edge? Is he getting lazy? I don't think so. I think the odds are catching up to him, as they do with all of us.

No matter how much knowledge you incorporate into these games, they will almost NEVER go as you planed! Penalties, missed calls, bad calls, missed extra points, bad reads, etc. You do not handicap that shit, and there is no way that you ever could. For Christ's sake, guys have had game FIXED, and still lost! That should tell you all something!!!!

I know a lot of you guys will say that you are up 200 units on the year, haven't paid the man in weeks, blah, blah, blah.....who cares?:shrug: ........You are lucky. Look at those wins, and tell me how many game panned out the way you drew it up? Not too fuhking many, I'll guarentee that! You need a ton of luck in this game, and that is why so many guys have records around the .500 mark. Plain and simple.

There will always be times when a game does go the way you figured it would, and those times feel terrific. But, for the most part, you have to admit that you felt "robbed", or "lucky" after a game is over.

I think the more games you play, the worse you will do over time. Juice, and a .500 record, don't mix.:nono:

Over any season or two, I think a guy can do some damage, other than that, the books eventually balance out, and you will get taking to the cleaners, IMO. Again, you can claim this thread to be the rant of a loser, but I see the same story on every board I have ever been to. A shit load of guys with .500 records, bowing to the 'freak of the week', until he goes sour, and then they look for a new hero.

We have had our Raymonds, Fletchers, Nolans, et al, but there is not a soul on one of these boards whom you can blindly follow, and watch your money grow. That beast don't exist, fellas.

Gambling on sports will never pay the rent, and that is your lock of the year.

 

[buddy]

Merry Christmas!

 

[wondo]

If that's the case then why not go against what you'd pick? Then you'd make money by what you're saying.

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

If that's the case then why not go against what you'd pick? Then you'd make money by what you're saying.If that's the case then why not go against what you'd pick? Then you'd make money by what you're saying.

you' re joking, right?:nono: :nono:

law of averages says, no one capper can stay cold or hot for long....it's the LONG run that evens things out.

I agree with YYZ that i don't think you CAN make a living just gambling on sports. In this day and age of the new handicapping era, the lines are sharper and you need to be fawking psychic to figure out some of these games...and even if you are, you'd STILL probably lose.

i can tell you first hand tracking all the major sports...there seems to be more parity, where any team can beat the other on a GIVEN day.

which is why i will always have my ACE in the hole which has been the best for me to wager on: BASEBALL.

after this baseball season, if i make over 50 units ( 1 unit = 100 dollars US, HA.),which is a REAL possibility, i'll fawking quit all the other sports and just focus on baseball for the rest of my capping career.

Being on this site almost everyday for the last 2 years has been a valuable and learning experience for me and with what's been goin in in the majoy sports the last few years, i think it may be time for me to cut back a little and slowly fade away.....

MY RANT: how the fawk can you bet on sports with three possible outcomes???? (ie: hockey / soccer )

It fawking diminishes your chances of winning in the long run, methinks.

But i still do it.

thanks for listening.

 

[yyz]

Buddy.....Christmas is over, the gloves are off!

wondo....the point is, it doesn't matter what you pick, as the juice will eat you in the long run. There is no science to this, as so many guys would have you believe. You can only do so much with the handicapping of these games, but the hijinx on the field decides who wins and loses.

 

[buddy]

YYZ,

Rumor has it that 99.999 % of those who wager on sports end up losing.

If the rumor is true, I can't help but wonder about that .001 %.

 

[djv]

YYZ you are correct in 95% of what you said. That is a lot. First to win you must not play the board//to many games or to many sports. Yes you can have good runs. Yes if you manage those right you can weather the bad runs. Do you get rich. Noway. Can you make alittle Yes. If carefull you will only lose alittle in the down cycle. I once did Football NFL/NCAA and NCAABB only. Played only 4 to 5 games a week in FBall. And 8 to 12 games a week in BB. Never started buckets till FB was through for season. Then I started alittle BaseBall after coming here. Had done alittle years ago was just so/so at it. Will no longer play BaseBall it did me no favors here or on by own. FBall I still survie at it do to my money mangement and number of games played. But to keep this short I never got rich on any of it. And had as you said up and down years. Anyone that states it dont happen to them is ful of hot air. OR luckier your then everyone else. Why do you think there are so many service that pop up ready to sell picks. Think about it. Not saying there evil. Just saying think about it. True story less then 5% make a proffit at gambling each year. Less then 1/2% can make a living at it. Will have to see what 1/2% that is. And that1/2% it is said is a combination of gambling and selling there selections that help them make the liveing. Hey this is all comon knowledge has been for years.
With that all said thanks to 1837. And I hate to say it to draw to much attention. But in the motor raceing section. I did just afew of my own ideas, dam few. However I followed almost everything 1837 gave us. YYZ It has been wonderfull last two years. Everything there has coverd the losses of my great picking or others from this site. and i have a nice little catch left over. but if 1837 had not had this great great run. I dont think I would have the nice bit of change I do. Can he have a bad year. Yes you know it and he does to. But so far it's very good.
So have some fun guys. Stay with in your level of pain and losses you can handle. Use Money mangement to the fullest. This should help you in the long run. But remember less then 5% are winners. So if we have 1000 folks coming here. Do the math.

 

[ndnfan]

YYZ.....YOU ARE DEAD WRONG!

I Don't have a problem with a way a person feels about sportsbetting, and you might call that an "opinion" but it's not it just simply put...far from the truth.

 

[wondo]

[BSo if we have 1000 folks coming here. Do the math. [/B]

Well, here's one bright spot -- I can guarantee you I know one person who's not making any money this year (yours truly) so the percentages are slightly higher now for the rest of you!

But seriously, I think there are some good handicappers and some bad ones. It's like anything. Not everyone is a major league baseball player, but does that mean it can't be done? Not at all, but it does mean that at some point in a career, one has to be honest with oneself and call it quits if the potential isn't there. The chance of a little leaguer to make it to the bigs is extremely slim -- yet everyone still gives it a try... just the same as the stats that you throw out on gambling for a living.

But some people can do it and kudos to them. But hopefully those that don't have the talent don't over extend their means in trying and cause problems in other parts of their lives.

 

[Anders]

agree with ndnfan - it can be done, and is....
it ain't easy of course.
and to be honest, I'm glad there's lots of people who don't make money at it, or else there would be no 'other side'...
i'd say most of us here don't want to make a living from it - too damn stressful and it requires more hours than we already spend slaving away at our current job - and depending on your bankroll, quite probably for less cash...
But to say that beast doesn't exist is incorrect...

 

[TLove]

YYZ,

I agree with most of what you say. I find it hard to believe people make their sole source of income gambling on sports.

I do believe that there are a lot of people who supplement their income with gambling winnings. What I mean by that is there are some people who do make a grand or two a month? Not much to solely live on but plenty to buy all the toys you want. Do they consistently make that each month? NO... but can it be done... You better believe it....

Just my two cents.....

 

[ndnfan]

That?s a very good example wondo! Never say it can?t be done, because there?s always the elite of the elite! Anders?well put!

Here?s a couple things that will help:

For starters, here?s a couple money management tips:


Getting the best possible line is more important than one might think. Shopping will essentially wipe out the house edge many times. For example, when betting a sporting event with a point spread involved, the game will land on the point spread approximately once in 25 times, or 4% of the time. So if you are betting the best possible lines, you will win one more bet every 25 plays. Over a course of 100 bets placed, this will increase your winning percentage by at least 2%.

I always go into handicapping a game thinking there is still an upwards of a 50% chance that the outcome will be decided by sheer fickle fate. In other words, the reality is that a very large percentage of games will be decided by factors beyond our handicapping control?..just like you mention with missed calls, errors, penalties, etc. Over time you'll hit half of the "fickle fate" games. Bottom line, it's the other 50% of the games that allows the professional handicapper or bettor to get the edge and be able to show a nice profit when sports betting. Regardless of whether you're on a big winning streak or losing streak, most successful players will bet the same amount. If you really think that you are the rare person that can vary his bets widely percentage wise and be successful, you I hope you're betting just for a hobby?just doesn't work in sports betting except in very low instances with certain cappers.

With this being said, why would you want to vary a bet from say 1* to 10* like many do?? Even if a bettor's 10* hits at a 10% better clip than say a 2*, what justifies putting 500% more on the bet when history shows you're only gaining a 10% edge?? Throw the fact that fickle fate could decide your outcome and make all your handicapping work worthless for that particular game?.Well enough said here?Simply put this is bad advice! That?s all you see around MJ?s is varying these wagers. Granted a lot of people look at each unit being equal to $100 and that might not be quite as bad if they have the proper bankroll and vary in that way from say 1 to 5 units if that is meaning each 1%, 2%, 3%, 4%, 5% of their bankroll?as some people can do this With the proper bankroll I look at a unit being a percent of the bankroll and thus the importance of keeping it the same which is what the first part of this paragraph means. Every professional know there?s gonna be bad runs to go along with the good ones, but they also play over the long haul and DO end up!!!! Also too many people try to play every sport and way too many games?can?t be done. If you can play more games that?s fine as you don?t have to have as high of win % to make as much, but trying to cap professionally every sport is very tough unless you have the appropriate help and connections. Personally I gave up basketball for this reason and concentrate on Football and baseball and the gap after football, I?m already working on stuff for the upcoming baseball season.
You do state some truths, but don?t say ?everyone??it?s simply NOT TRUE!


-ndnfan

 

[PaTsJaMM]

I totally agree with NDFAN it certainly can be done. If you are careful enough and manage your money well, you WILL make money at it.

Some important things I have found:

1) Betting parlays/teasers will destroy you, plain and simple. I can't count the amount of times in the past that I've lost a teaser due to one team not showing up. It irritated the hell outta me when I'd win 2 games in a 3 team teaser, 3 in a 4 and so on. I tell you I stopped that quick enough.

2) I don't bet more than -110. Period. I've been screwed way too many times on the sure thing ie Pedro -350. Look at the Rams last year. I swear sometimes I think they set this sh*t up. Anyway, bottom line is I won't get buried anymore by huge chalk.

3) I bet 2% of my bankroll NO MATTER how much of a **LOCK** this game is or that game is. You'd have to go on some kind of a huge losing streak not to be able to recoup losses by progressive betting this way. Even so, I stop at 4 straight losses and start fresh again. Call it a built-in safety net..

4) I bet one game at a time. Betting 5,6, or 7 games at once only ensures that you'll pretty much break even most of the time. The law of averages will see to that.

5) A formula that has worked well for me is say I lay 110.00 to win 100. If that bet wins then I'll lay 55.00 to win 50. If I lose I went 1-1 but I still made a profit of 45. If i won, then I'd take it one step further and bet 75. to win 67.50. If I lost after the 3rd time I'd still show a 75. profit. The point is that after each win I bet half that amount. When I lost, I simply start over again. It may sound monotonous but it's worked wonders for me, and it keeps me from being eaten up by the juice.

Just my 0.02 for what it's worth.

 

[Eddie Haskell]

yyz

yyz

y:

Another first, I couldn't agree with you more. Only winners long run are those collecting the vig. Obviously you can increase your odds of winning serious handicapping. But how do you handicap a thrown helmet (Rudd)?

Pete Rose is the best example. Knows the game, manages the game, lives the game.....owes his bookies. If that billy can't pick a winner in a baseball game how the hell do you guys think you can?

For those that think you can beat the system in the long run, the bookies childrens children thank you.

Eddie

 

[kcwolf]

yyz

Love ya man. You sure know how to start some topics that create interest. You need to be commended for that, if nothing else.

As for the content in your post, about 50% of it is not real fair. I only say this if you are talking about someone who does this seriously.

I realize a majority of the folks here play with monoply money or play $5 to $100 per game. Thats fine with me, they are pretty easy to single out. And nothing wrong with playing recreationally.

But I hazard to say some people make a lot of money. It comes down to what you want in life. I sure think I have the will to quit if I spent 60 hours a week handicapping games and continually lost. Fact is, I'd run away as fast as I could!

And guess what, I lost close to $3000 on Monday. Guess I'm a loser.

One last thought, having lived in Sin City so many years. The hotels they build there are getting bigger and bigger. The sports books are getting smaller and smaller.

If "everyone" is losing money, I'd think Vegas would wipe out a few hundred thousand square feet of slots to expand the sportsbook area.

I also wonder why several offshore books have gone broke if "everyone" is losing.

Just an opinion, I may be wrong.

 

[THE KOD]

ndnfan

I agree with alot of what you said, especially this part. SA

If you really think that you are the rare person that can vary his bets widely percentage wise and be successful, you I hope you're betting just for a hobby?just doesn't work in sports betting except in very low instances with certain cappers.
-ndnfan

that is me ! except I don't vary widely unitl its time to throw it the f$@@ down and I mean slam it hard !


yyz I don't think you have all the facts about this topic as usual.
I will find some quotes about making money and see what you think.

Scott King of the Underdogs

 

[ndnfan]

that is me ! except I don't vary widely unitl its time to throw it the f$@@ down and I mean slam it hard !

Scott, I feel for ya on those TITFD games.

As far as the varying the bets.....some of the few that have had past success...I was thinking of the lines of such people as KC Wolf plus a few other cappers I know. But even so, they do not vary as large percentage wise in proportion to the bankroll they are using. The difference between 1 unit and 5 units is not near the % of difference than say someone else that does not have the appropriate bankroll in accordance to how they are rating the plays

 

[THE KOD]

yyz

So when people make these kinds of statements in the forum they are lieing ?

I make money and I don't have to

and


I have been sportsbetting since 1961 and it has paid th bills since 1987...

how do you explain these ?


Scott King of the Underdogs

 

[wondo]

KCWolf or other 'fulltimers'-

This is slightly off the original topic, but I wondered about serious players varying amount of wagers depending on the time of the year. Not like the cycles of the moon, but rather the time of season.

For me, my results track very consistently from year to year as far as either winning during a given period or losing during a given period. Mid seasons are brutal for me, while the beginning and the end of a season are much more lucrative. I've tried to change both my methods of analysis and my amount of wagers in order to accomodate these highs and lows. It isn't good money management in a sense, but at the same time, it's the only way for me to turn a profit.

I guess it is a short-sighted strategy, and again points to my lack of competence in sports betting. But for someone who does it consistently, it seems like you must take certain liberties on a given game or team, depending on your instinct and history.

Maybe it is fighting our human nature not to, but I would have to think that goldcupsports might go heavier on Wichita or Jack on the Ravens or whatever the case may be.

It definitely leads to making money in the short term, but is it viable over time?

 

[yyz]

ndnfan,

You make some very good points, and I thank you for joining the conversation. Actually I thank you all!

Are people making money doing this? Yes they are. But, IMO, they are in the "short run", and the long run will bear them out.

I guess I kind of hurried my thoughts this morning. My main gripe, which was not offered up very well, was that you could handicap your nuts off, and have a play or two cost you the green. This happens every night in sports. These are not "infrequent" events.

ndnfan made me realize something that I never factored in before, but it makes a lot of sense, considering my rant. I am one of the people who has advocated 1-4 unit spreads. I have always believed that some games simply merrit a bigger play, based on how I see their edge in beating the number. But, what happens when the "bad call" or ill timed play cost me the 4 unit play? I can honestly say that there are not too many games that I have ever wagered on that got completely toasted. Thus, I think solid capping is to be credited for that. But, lossing by a point costs the same as losing by 100, right?

Shopping for the best line? That should be a given for all gamblers, but some don't have the money to play in many accounts at one time. Sometimes you have to take what you get, as long as you can live with that number.

Again, ndnfan, I think I will start to eschew the 1-4 unit method. (Even though it has served me well in hoops this season!)



kcwolf,

You make some well thought out points as well. If I might respond to a couple, I would start with the offshore joints going tits up:

Most of them seem to go bad due to poor management, rather than astute bettors. Giving the house away on promos, and bonuses......"gambling" with the lines.......outright thievery, even.

I also feel that Las Vegas is playing the role of corporate beancounter over bookmaker. Look at the shitty bets they offer, and shitty limits at times. No first half wagers, etc. I remember about 6 years ago when you couldn't find a book willing to take any serious cash on the NBA, because nobody knew how to make a line! Do you remember those days? Remember when you could only make a maximum parlay of only a couple hundred bucks, and it had to be the side and total in the same game? No.....Las Vegas wants to be all slots, and someday they might just be that! So, maybe LV is afraid that some sound players can do them in. You see that more than I ever would, so I will take it as gospel, but I don't think there are too many guys cranking out the cash in this business. If they are, I will say it again, I think they are just bolstering their handicapping ablility with a solid dose of good fortune.

For those of you whom can make a go of this, and show a profit overall........I hope it keeps rolling in for you.


Scott,

What can I say? How do I explain, "I have been sportsbetting since 1961 and it has paid th bills since 1987"? I don't know......maybe he don't eat so good, and live on the street?:shrug:

Once again, you remind me of a line from that historic movie, Billy Madison:

Mr. Madison,(or Scott-Atlanta) what you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.