Spreadsheet early picks - week 10

[Jimboski]

Blah blah blah Dept.
Damn, Damn, Damn, been this route once before - hectic day yesterday. Got home late but I started running the sheet EARLY Weds. It had an early strong pick right off the bat and I decided I'd take a look for something to go with it EARLY this morning. Got online and couldn't find the dang pick on the board.. CINN. YEAH, Cinn and you KNOW why I couldn't find it, right? I coulda swore that was a Thurs. game. SOB !

Too bad it was a STRONG play too and I AIN'T gonna count it in the record for this week cause I didn't post it (OR even worser, didn't PLAY the freakin game).

SS is spitting out plicks that "LQQK" normal for this week; VERY much unlike last week. It didn't do that badly last week ESP. if you give it a pass on that torturous Mizzou game and possibly the Fresno St. game that they did cover at the closing line, but I gotta remember to just take that Sat. off the next time it tries to scream at me to do just that. It just didn't act right (ratings nos.) at all for almost all the games I ran on it last week. Again, this week they look fine/normal and that should be good news, we'll see about that. I didn't plan to post any SS plays at this time, but since you're here, here's a few of the "Strong Plays" it has so far that I THINK will be in it's top 10(?) picks for this week.....

Ariz. St. -12
Illinois +10 1/2
Army pk : It just LUVS this team almost every week :mj03: When is some turkey (wanna be newsmaker) gonna say something about this team's name?

I'm sure I'll have more to add tomorrow; got plenty of games to run on it yet.

G.L.

 

[Double Two]

Thanks for posting Jimbo!!! :0008 I see a few "Bombers" with a chance @ PARX tomorrow!!! :yup

 

[Jimboski]

Something else

Something else

I just came from the Horse Parlor and congratulated you on that mighty fine longshot pick you made. NOW, I see that you were here. :00x24

I'll "talk" to you back at the Horse Ranch sometime today; don't know what time I'll get online though cause I got a LOT of "homework" to do now that Philly is running today and the footsballers as well. UGH! IF your pick is in my top 3, I'll get on it with you. I may run out of time to go through the LONG handicapping procedures I use to get through today's Philly's card.

OH Man, I got a lot of games to put through the nos. cruncher yet. :facepalm:

Thanks for letting me know, DT.

 

[Jimboski]

UP to now...

UP to now...

Ok, so far up to right now....

Cinn -3 Sheet was right on, I wasn't (sleeping on the job) Didn't post this so not in record.

Ariz St. -12 : wiener

Rutgers -13

Army pk

Wisc. -9.5

Mich St. -7: using as a parlay stuffer for me, that means -6 (I ALWAYS take them off key nos. for parlays). For the record though - it's -7.

Minny +8.5

Okla St. +2

May not make it up to 10 top picks; almost done running games. I'll add anything that does make the cut.

G.L.

 

[Giambi-Juice]

Damn it!! I already put small action in on Indiana as I really like that one this Saturday! You know what that means if history repeats itself in my betting arena. Minnesota is probably a LOCK!

Good Luck Guys! And thanks again Jimbo for all you do!! :0074

 

[Jimboski]

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Giambi_Juics, NEVER let the SS take you off YOUR pick; it usually does a pretty good job but it knows how to lose too. BTW, that pick was 8th from top of the list, so don't fret. If history repeats itself - you prob. DO want to be on the Sheet's side when the Bowl games start up.

Wisc and Army are 1st and 2nd on the SS list. Actually, Cinn was just about tied for 2nd highest pick. Man, I really flucked up on that one.

Best of luck to you, GJ.

 

[Jord20]

Good start to the week!

 

[Jimboski]

Reply

Reply

Thanks, Jord. You know, I stopped in your thread at something like 3:30 A.M. cause you had so many views. Sorry I didn't write a thing but I really needed some shut eye REAL BADLY with hosses running and footsballers bawling and all.

I stick to the SS picks and wished it had Georgia on it's list. LIKE that play, personally.

Thanks for giving my thread a boost and your interest in the Sheet's picks.

G.L.

 

[Jimboski]

update

update

L@@Ks like some of my new fwends may have given up on the $heet? SHEEEET :nono: LOL

How bout that B.C.? Last week the Sheet liked them, you liked them, I liked them and the bastages get blown out. This week they beat V.T. straight up. Dang SS was a little premature on that plick. SON -Ah - Mah- BEECHES!

Looks like the two top picks, Army and Whiskey split.
ROOTGERS (my alma matre) was a losah

we already know bout Cinn. (doesn't count) and Ariz. St.

Damn, Illinois just missed making the list by one stinkin pt. UGH

EDITED (maybe this thing doesn't fly to the top of the listing if ya "edit" it instead of replying?) J.G. I replied with a pick to your post to me in the Horse Place. Ninth race at Philly.

more to go yet. G.L.

 

[Jimboski]

adding a pers. play and updating

adding a pers. play and updating

A couple of more wieners ...

Mich St.

Minny: I could kick myself for not playing this one as a straight Money Liner. Thought and thought about it and came sooo close to doing it. The devil kept telling me,"Don't play a team that scored a decent sized upset in it's previous game". They pulled that one off in their LAST TWO games. Bastard Devil.

I'm putting in a personal play for a game that starts in 45 mins. Gotta have some fun ya know ESP. since it's with the Book's moola . It is much less fun when a machine tellsya what to play. Doesn't count in the "MJ Official Record" though cause I don't wanna ruin the $heet's record.

It's one of them "sucker" bets.... FSU scores OVER 41 pts. I've seen enough of this team to believe they ARE a contender to win it all. I think they make a statement in this game in this intrastate battle, especially in their place.

Keep on truckin..

 

[bjfinste]

Looks like the sheet had another nice weekend... hoping Okie State holds on for ya.

 

[Jimboski]

Wriap it up and put a bow on it

Wriap it up and put a bow on it

Thank you bjfinste, thems did hold on alright.

I'm really good with numbers, statistics, and computers... but, when it comes to doing inventory and the easier stuff, I have trouble. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I did it 3 times and what came out TWICE was what should be the record for this week ---> another 6 and 2 week.

I see that I did post Illinois so I'm counting that one and just did my bestest to ignore that Cincy blunder and didn't count that cover. What I do keep tract of is my bankaroo and it tells me the $heet is doing just fine.

I hope some of the VISITOR"S may have been on the fence with one of their games and jjust maybe a winning $heet pick gotem a wiener.

Warning - the picks generally get better as the season progresses because the program continues to modify it's "opinion/ratings" for each team as I feed it team stats for each week that goes by. If I tried to write here a BASIC methodology for how it works, It would be 3 chapters long and most readers would be fast asleep at the 1/4 pole (yeah, I play hosses too, but NOT Breders Cup types :nono: ) I used regression analysis computations on TWO seasons of college footsball data to just come up with the specific data that proved to be the most predictive for it to use and that's just the starting line at that point. "Specific data" would be things like - yards/run, per/pass, time of possession, cumulative margins that it covered/lost to the spread, total yds. per game, stuff like that for OFFENSIVE plays AND DEFENSIVE plays and there's plenty more. Tellya when it gets to the point where it gives me a rating for the home team each week, explaining how it gets to that point is grueling and complicated as all hell.

Hmmm... getting carried away. The point I was trying to make in that last paragraph was that it's overachieving considering the point of the season we're up to at this point and at this rate, I would expect it to be almost at 100% by the Bowl games. Beware, cause that ain't gonna happen. Fact is, that it almost did just that for one set of Bowl games about 6 or 7 years ago; just unreal. I made it as a tool to use, but after those Bowl picks, I just stick to it like glue even though trying to accomplish success with what I'm doing is really (theoretically) ridiculous. It has never come close to it's performance for that period before or since that and that had to be somewhat of a fluke. I don't believe anybody in the world came closer than it did that year and NO, I didn't get rich on it because I'm not a big bettor and ignored almost half of it's picks for them games that year :cuss:. I can't post how it did for them Bowls cause no one would believe a word I write from this point on.

OK, on to week 11.. G.L. NFLing. I got one of them in a pending parlay with a few college wieners. Did anybody see the last one I had going with only a pretty heavy favorite NFLer pending? I did post it (one game that Peyton couldn't pull out) killed the mutha jumpin parlay. FREAKIN NFLers

 

[Giambi-Juice]

I may not always follow the S.S. But from now on.... If I disagree with sheets picks for a game that play will be a no play!! I was against the sheet on 2 of my 3 plays yesterday and went 0-3!! Not a good day and I will not chase on NFL to try and make up for my NCAA losers!!

Thanks again for the time you put into the sheet. My bankroll is sorry that I went against it! On a positive side of things- I am still playing with house money and hopefully am not sounding like a cry baby? After losing on sucky Indiana Hoosiers, I almost chased with your Ok.State pick- told myself to stay disciplined and stick to my 3 game plan per day. Anybody should be able to go at least 2/3 right?:nono:

Get em next week! :0074

 

[WildBillPicks7]

Solid week again there, Jimbo!! Nice job!!

:0074

 

[SixFive]

Solid as usual! Too bad the SS darling Black Knights shit the bed, haha!! Keep it up!

 

[Jimboski]

replies

replies

I may not always follow the S.S. But from now on.... If I disagree with sheets picks for a game that play will be a no play!!

Giambi, based on my experience with the Sheet , you saved yourself a couple of seasons of trail, error, and confusion. Good to see you found a shortcut that could [/u] possibly [/u] make this thang work for you and me too. BTW, I posted a couple of horses for ya in my reply to your "couple of days near an OTB" post to me. , GOOD THING you didn't see it. LOL Hopefully, UNLESS you got very lucky, you didn't' get caught up with the Breeders Cup circus. When it comes to hoss wacin, I don't play :00011 which I believe works best for those races. I'm a graduate from the School of Hard Knox, Horseology major, and it costed me to figure that part out.

SixFive, welcome back. Yeah, Army killed a 3 teamer and hence, killed two other college FB wieners. Did you flip a coin with Whiskey on one side and Army on the other and it came up the wrong way like it did for me in that there parlay?
Multiple 2 teamer scores and a solid side, single play (Minny +8, don't want to think about that one, shoulda been a Money Liner play, FLUCK) made it a very nice Sat. I stick with the Sheet even after it has a really bad week which we haven't seen yet (UT OH). Never give up. Well, until you can't stand the pain any longer that is, then go on to something else I guess. I did just that with them baiseballers. Just stop betting really ain't a bad option either. My sport of choice forever has been hoss wacin. I started going to the track when I was a YOUNG whipper snapper. I went into a tailspin one year and just STOPPED; didn't bother me cause I knew I'd be back someday. My vacation from racing lasted around 2 years, just forgot about them and didn't bet a thing except for maybe a Fantasy Five ticket once in a while. Got interested again just like I knew I wound happen and started playing them again. That return date was about 5 years ago.

Thanks, Wild Bill. I think using the $heet as an aid AFTER you made YOUR selections is a good idea for all the players. Maybe even for just adjusting the bet amount for each. If it keeps up the good job it's been doing for a long time now that should really help. Good luck with all your plays.

Oh.. I had a personal play, FSU scores OVER 41 pts. HOW the hell do them linemakers figure that shit out??? I'd just LUV to git my hands on THEIR spreadsheet

Ok, on to week 11

 

[bigs]

Jimbo,
Thanks for posting and the time you put into it. Have been tailing some the last few weeks and cashing. Thanks again and thanks for posting early as well. :0008

 

[Jimboski]

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Jimbo,
.... Have been tailing some the last few weeks and cashing.....

Just LUV reading that part, bigs. NO PROBLEM putting all the time i'm putting into it cause that part of the "job" has been paying pretty decently enough if you know what I mean .

As long as I see enough interest in it and ESP. new faces popping in here from time to time - no problem taking the time to post the picks.

Can't promise early posts though cause it takes a LOT of time to feed the monster every week. Used to be able to just cut and paste the data in from a website that stopped posting it's spreadsheet this year, SHEEEEET! Even worser, other years I was able to run ALL of the games with one shot; this year I only feed it about 25 games (as in -> 50 teams worth) before I "run out of gas". My other "hobby" hoss wacin takes up plenty time too cause I thoroughly analyze every race I play (4 days per week); add in the regular stuff most people do ESP. if they maintain a house..... and 24 hrs. a day ain't enough. Normally, I'll post plays very EARLY SAT. morning and whenever I can make it sooner like I was able to this past week.

Hey, I AIN'T looking for sympathy cause this stuff is fun. Ah.. as long as we can keep on winning that is.

Thanks for letting me know about the $heet making you a wiener this past week, do stop in if that happens again and EVEN if you got any negative comments about it's picks like maybe that fact that it made a "Strong Play" call on that there ridiculous Fresno St. game last week. LOL

G.L. whatever you're up to .