Spreadsheet picks - Week 10

[Jimboski]

First off - for anybody that hasn't been checking what this is all about, briefly :

- I run a college football spreadsheet that took me a whole season to develop.

- It's had some very good seasons but, so far - it's OUTDOING itself this season. Sorry, I don't keep tract of EXACTLY it's Win/Loss stat.. but it's batting around 70%. Since I've only been posting it's picks since week 6 cause I gotta feed it at least several weeks of data EVERY week before it starts "doing it's thing". It came outa the gate real strong (yep, I play them hosses too and that's where I make my core moola; check out the MJ Racing Room some time) and I figured I'd share it's picks starting with week 6. It keeps ratings for every team for EACH WEEK and evaluates the current week's matchup by checking it's performance vs. every team they played and adjusts the stats. like, running yds. offense/defense, same for passing yardage, T/Os (turn overs), margins of victory (ATS), and a whole bunch of more STUFF.

- I get it's TOP 10 picks/ratings after running every game for each week and evaluate factors that it doesn't take into consideration.. like my opinion of how teams that I've watched perform, injuries, travel, stuff like that.

- I post the 5 "bestest" picks out of it's top 10 after doing all that. I NEVER play against a SHEET pick (Oh yeeah, I learned my lesson bout doing that a no. of times over the past few seasons). . If I LUV the team that's playing against a "SHEET PICK' . .. that game is a NO Play for me.

Check the previous posts if the record is that important to ya. I judge how the SHEET is doing by how the ole bankaroo is looking.. and it does look healthy alright!


OK, TOO EARLY to post anythng, but I did run this weeks games through and thought it best to make an early play on one of it's very strong picks cause i'm thinking the line may move against me by gameday. Personally, I sorta like the play, but the SHEET luvs it and that's good enough for me.

SHEET picks South Carolina to upset the Razorbacks. I'm a parlayholic :s2: , so I will be playing this pick as a single M.L. play and use it in at least one parlay for this week so I'll also take the points (lne is + 5 1/2 and I'm making it +6; yeah, I know there's no key no. here, but I gotta do what has been working for me and 6 has worked for me plenty of times over 5 1/2). Also, i't's much better to get off the fraction for parlays. You know - ties can keep the parlay alive.

Just thought I'd get this one up early cause of fearing where the line will head to. I'll post the 5 bestest in this thread later this week just like I have been doing the past several weeks, .

Good Luck this week.

 

[oceanguy]

thx Jimbo...I like em too...whats your sheet say about S. Fla. and also ucla??

BOL this week :0008

 

[Pittsburgh Paul]

Any thoughts on tonights contest?

Thanks for putting up the best plays!!!

 

[nDn_Investor]

I like both USF and UCLA.... hope the spreadsheet likes those games.

Will be fun to match up our spreadsheet plays, if any are the same like Michigan last weekend we can go ahead and bet the house haha j/k.

 

[Jimboski]

Thank you all 3 repliers... you guys are keeping me interested in doing this ...

Pittsburgh - it likes Temple, the line I fed the Cruncher is -3. I took it off -3.5 in a parlay with S. Carolina and UTEP.

UCLA ?.. . funny you guys picked this one... it's a DOOZIE. SHEET has UCLA as a VERY strong play. I did the HUMAN (that's me ) analysis and marked it with a "?". I check on sooo many games that I don't remember the details for each.... but I DO remember that State has a TREMENDOUS (really BIG TIME) advantage in the turnover facta. Also, the SHEET didn't give UCLA, despite it's good recent performances, much credit for it's last few games. This one is very puzzling for me and since there's so many games to go with - I will prob. stay away from this ESP. since I'm not very familiar with either of these teams. STILL nDn, it IS "SHEET RATED" as very strong pick and that's no bullsheet either.

So. FLA: Two of the ratings pick So. Fla and the other rating picks Rutgers. IMO, BOTH of these teams are very inconsistant and not for me. Hate to see my alma mater (yeah, I'm a ROOTGERS grad) get beat... but they haven't been very good to me the few times I've played them or faded them in the past. Basically, me and SHEET doesn't want anything to do with this game.

Repilers - I ain't a routine person and sometimes I don't check this site or even use the puter for a day or two. Sure glad I stopped in tonight so I could get back to yas. I HOPE none of those games started yet.

G.L.

 

[treynolds]

thanks jim

 

[oceanguy]

thx for response and again BOL this week :toast: :toast:

 

[Jimboski]

Mo stuff in next post

Mo stuff in next post

Appreciate the courtesy AND CLASS, repliers.

Getting a few mosquito bites (fractional unit bets on parlays) on the way to getting SERIOUS about playing anything starting Saturday. Man, does that Boston College crew ever suck! Admitedly, they're young and on the small side, but they play like they're afraid out there tonight. Didn't take them tonight, but thought they could score over 15 1/2 pts and used that play in a 4 teamer parlay for a fraction of a unit. . ... . .FORGET IT. Right now, the second half just started and I'm a WATCHER, only. Can't believe they're gonna hit the 16 pt. mark, after watching them the 1st 1/2.

MORE IMPORTANT STUFF

Great to see some new faces visiting, so I'm gonna also include some "FOR INFORMATION ONLY" plays. NOT COUNTING THESE AS REAL (record wise) plays cause I'm really only interested in how the FINAL FIVE picks do. But, these are SOME of the plays that have all 3 positive ratings per the SHEET. For inatance - tonight's game (BC/Fl. State) ... the SHEET has two positive ratings for State and one positve rating for BC (all ratings are ATS). So, Fl. State would NOT be on this list.

Anyways, this FYI list is where I go to find parlay mates to go with at least one team in the top 5 per my main listing. Let me know if the FYI list is any help for you visitors.

The "Spreadsheet" threads should should be scored (anybody keeping records? I don't) this way -> EACH of the 5 listed teams is a side play, individually.

They will be up tomorrow.. .. really, this time

 

[hogman14]

Jimbo

Good luck on the plays. May the force be with you.

 

[genosays]

Looking forward to your best 5 .... will also look and see if you have any Breeders Cup picks for tomorrow and Saturday over in the horsie forum.

 

[Jimboski]

replies and ..... .. er, ... some hoss talk

replies and ..... .. er, ... some hoss talk

I HATE to keep shooting this thing to the top of the listings, but I gotta reply. See what time it is? That means that there's should not be many MJers around so I guess it's OK for me to do so. The good thing is that it won't fall too deep in the MJ quicksand and I'll be able to fish it back up again with the SHEET'S FB picks

I just gotta check 2 more things for each of the top 10.

Hogman, hope you hit a BIG ONE with the BCs.

Geno, fraid I'm a Specialist PHD (Pilled High and Deep) when it comes to hosses. If you can play them on Mondays or Tuesdays which are my LUCKY DAYS and if you like moola... based on my record ->YOU DO want to visit the Horsie Room. Oh, my specialty... I ONLY make serious plays at one twack ... .. Philadelphia Park. Do I do good there?.. just read what's been going on over there for the past month or so (don't worry about it being a project cause there's VERY FEW threads in there.. stop when you get to the ONLY hoss I picked about a month ago that paid $92.20 for 2 STINKIN bucks. You could stop at this past Tues. where I wrote,"Lets git some EZ Philly "units" to use (lose?) when the circus events arrive this weekend". I picked 3 races, only . .. won every one, last zacta paid $70. Other zacta had a 35-1 shot run 2nd to complete the zacta for us. Can't promise how long my hot streak will run, but it's been going pretty dang strong for months and months.

IF you just like to play the high profile, popular races during the year... stop over for the Triple Crown races and I may be able to help. BUT, based on my record on BC waces .... er, you might do better by :00011

thems races are TOO TOUGH for me and I didn't even bet a dollar on any of them circus events last year.

YIKES,.. hope I didn't write too much about dem hosses in here.:scared:
FOOTBALL picks are coming up REAL soon.

 

[Jimboski]

FINALLY

FINALLY

I gotta cut back the hours I put into this thing.

OK, here they are:

Miaimi (Fla, of course) -15.5: strong play that I like also. Don't like the no. "-15.5" at all. Not just the size of it but the number itself, some kinda mouseTRAP or something? Yet, I WILL be on this one.

MICH -3 (I'd take it off 3 1/2 if I hadda)

So. Carolina -whatever: SHEET picks upset. I'm going along and I'll take the pts in at least one of the parlays. MANY of the best cappers are on the other side. Hmm... man vs Robot.. verly interlesting.

Bama -4 1/2: Man thinks like Robot.

So. Miss -8 1/2: been berry good to me.


BEST PLAY
Undecided right now.


HONORABLE MENTIONS and MISC.

these are some of the picks that got all 3 ratings as positive nos. from the SHEET. Exception as noted.

Wyoming +20 is the exception. Two positive ratings and one neg. rating. I'm liking this one enough to include it in the parlays. Saw a few things but the biggies were - (1) look who TCU's been playing and (2) hell, Wyoming is getting 20 NOT so stinkin pts. and NEBRASKA only beat them by about that much. Sheeeet! 'ming is a young team with plenty of potential and they are starting to realize that potential lately too. Check out their latest efforts (I'm too bushed right now.. LOL).

New Mex: can you believe the SHEET gave this team all 3 ratings. My advice... DON'T EVEN THINK ABOUT !. Just hadda be a short in the wires during this calculation.

UTEP +1

UTAH + 3 1/2: Hmm.... another battle between Robot and Supermen?

Okalhoma -13: KNOW WHAT? Let's make it 6 (yeah, SIX) top picks for the SHEET by adding this one FOR THE RECORD KEEPERS. This one just cannot be left out.

and... I LIKE and will use NWestern/Braska OVER 64.

That's it.. No cartoons, jokes, only 1 smiley, I'm done. BCers (hosses) can run their asses off without me today. I'm gonna take a 10 hour nap.

G.L.

 

[StevieD]

Nice Write up. Good luck.

 

[TeeMo]

Great work brutha. Your time and efforts are most appreciated......:toast:

 

[nDn_Investor]

Only comparable game our SHEETS disagree with is UTEP/Rice. But for the most part it looks like a neutral game, I can see it going either way. It's an honorable mention for you, and I'm not even sure I'm going to play it myself.

I like Miami, Bama, and S. Carolina. I'll give Oklahoma a good look too, but a very publicly backed play, hard to take those, but Texas A&M might have got deflated by that Mizzou loss last week. Perhaps we can stick a fork in them after this game.

 

[nDn_Investor]

No wait, I read my sheet wrong, Duke is the play not Miami... oh boy lol. I got Nebraska under too. Time for me to recheck a few things!

 

[nDn_Investor]

OK maybe the play is UTEP... wow my sheet is a cluster##$# for lack of a better word, this is why you shouldn't mess with excel past 2 am lol.

 

[Jimboski]

back to ya

back to ya

Great to see some new folks (for me, that is) showing interest in the picks and, of course, Mr. Reliable, nDN. I think Texas A&M is one of the most OVERrated teams out there. Watched two of their games from start to finish and I don't see them competing with any of the Big Boys.

The SHEET gave the Sooners all three ratings, but not by the margin I WOULDA GAVE THEM. I think it's the -13 1/2 spread that makes the SHEET rate this game as a "medium play".

Just don't see them holding up at all vs. Okie even if the latter ain't totally up to par on Sat. Man, I gotta check the line and HOPE it didn't move in the wrong direction cause I gotta decide who the BESTEST play is yet.
The game plan is to select one of the 5 for bestest bet pick. But, I really like that Oklahoma play. Can't decide.

nDn, I may be able to program them things, but - I can not measure up to the SHEET picks and that Nebraska OVER is MY play. The puter doesn't know an under from an over or which end of the stick is up either. HOPE I don't take you off a WEINER.

Hope we all can make it happen this weekend.

 

[Jimboski]

I give up

I give up

Time is UP... I cannot decide on who is gonna cover all the parlays plus a profit. As in - Bestest Bet.
Have to employ the Antidote for Schizophrenia type behavior...

1. Ensure that there is enough of a game start time between the two teams you have in mind. OK (that is the case).

2. You can play each of these two teams in ONE, and ONLY one, parlay. Do not put both teams in one parlay. That is -> say you're playing 5 parlays (remember, parlays are cheap), you can put one of the bestest bets in say parlay no. 4 and, IF you want to, also include the other bestest bet in a parlay.,.. you can put that one in parlay no. 1,2,3,or 5.

3 Play the earlier BB (bestest bet) as a single to cover ALL parlays plus a reasonable (NOT too much) profit. If it wins STOP.. with some luck, you may also nail at least one of the parlays too and party tonight.

5. If the single "cover all + profit" bet loses (earlier game of the two), you do need to take your chances with covering everything with the 2nd Bestest Bet as a single play... and pray.

I like the chances of taking the risks for this one. Last week, BOTH of the best bets that I was thinking about LOST. LUCKILY, I played last week NORMALLY - no antidotes. Parlay saved the day and even produced a profit.

The way I see it... I ain't gonna go 0 for 2 again this week on best bets AND it just so happens that the bestest plays I was contemplating are BOTH of the Big Guns this week - Okie and Bama (late game). I will take both off key nos. if applicable. Not sure how I'll play/shave pts. off Bama though and HOPE I don't get to them anyways (Okie covers). Okie starts 3:30, Bama 8:00 p.m. ... beautiful. If I lose both.. .I deserve to lose. Still could hit a parlay though. ALSO, you could back off on the no. of parlays you play when you employ this thing. Like maybe only 3 parlays.

NOT suggesting anybody follows this "craziness" but if you're familiar with Chinese food, here's my "Column B" (for parlays). Some may be repeats from my earlier post:

ALL ATS, unless indicated. You gotta fill in the spreads though..... .. . hey, Ya gotta do sumphin

my OVER NW/Neb game that's already posted

E. Mich

Michigan

Texas

So. Carolina (with pts and M.L.)

Utah

Utep

(not too excited about Utah, but the SHEET likes them and I used them in one of the 'lays.)

Guess that's it.

NOW it's time to play... Prick n Pray... :flush: UGH :0... NO, NO .. time to play --> [size=+2]PICK and PLAY[/size] .. (that's it, ).

Almost forget about the BC races today - I recorded them and just watched them earlier. No plays for me. Don't know if I woulda caught any of the prices today. If pressed, I'd have to say I probably woulda got a good ass whoppin, BC style.

G. L.

 

[Jimboski]

Resurecting this thing

Resurecting this thing

Mostly just getting this thing where I can find it better later Broke a shoval digging this thing up and I DO understand the nature of this forum.. it's just CWAZY.

Looking like 3-1 so far with 6 plays this week.. counting Miami and OKIE (that's the BIG UN). As I'm writing this thems are pulling away. STILL, 4th quarter didn't even start yet :scared: NOT playing Bama if Sooners cover, but IT COUNTS (record wise)cause it's listed.

The luck I'm having is unreal.. stopped in the Hoss Wacin Room. Played one race, zactas, 2/9 top/bot 6,8 and hit a $100+ zacta. Plus I had the no. 2 across the board kinda heavy and he finished 2nd and paid pretty good. All I gotta do to stop this is to start pulling the $50s and $100s outa my pocket instead of the Fives and Tens.

Let's see what happens to S. Carolina.

Oh how bout MY OVER Neb play, AFTER 3/4s BRAStages score a whole 10 freakin pts. in that game. AND NW who also has an offense score 14. SON-A-MAH-BEACH! It ain't over yet, but forget it.
Can you imangine that? ... I CAN NOT. Thank gawd I got a SHEET.

G.L. tonight and NFLin.