Spreadsheet picks - week 14

[Jimboski]

Posting just the spreadsheet picks is kinda boring I guess, so this week I'll try posting some parlays I put in already. For the most part - THEY DO HAVE THE UPPER HALF OF THE SPREADSHEET PICKS. So, just pulling one or two out, which is exactly what most sheet viewers may do, is pretty much the same as playing the Electronic MONSTER'S' picks.

Last week 3/4s of the parlays clicked; hard to imagine that happening again. Note the teams that I added last week to my original listing like Memphis, S.D. State, Notre Dame, and others. Didn't do it exactly that way, but it turned out that just reaching into the barrel of the top 15 MONSTER produced a WIENNER, with almost no exceptions. .

Just ONE has to score of the ones listed above to make this whole thing profitable.There's just a fraction of the no. of games we have to pick from this week and that doesn't help any.

Let's see what yas think of these......

One stinkin unit WINS 3 1/3rd -
Pending 3 Team Parlay
Pending 12/1/12 7:00pm College Football 311 Pittsburgh U -6 -130* vs South Florida
Pending 12/1/12 11:00pm College Football 330 Hawaii -250* vs South Alabama
Pending 11/29/12 7:30pm College Football 304 Rutgers 1st Quarter -130* vs Louisville


One stinkin unit WINS 7 3/4 not so stinkin units -
Pending 12/1/12 7:00pm College Football 311 Pittsburgh U -6 -130* vs South Florida
Pending 12/1/12 11:00pm College Football 330 Hawaii -250* vs South Alabama
Pending 11/29/12 7:30pm College Football 304 Rutgers 1st Half -1 -120* vs Louisville
Pending 11/30/12 7:00pm College Football 306 Kent State 1st Half +4 -110* vs Northern Illinois

BTW, the Rutgers game is a "Weak Play" pick. The object right now is to just get one of the parlays "rolling". That's the reason for the "sucker bet" first quarter pick in parlay no. 1.

I don't visit forums on a regular basis, but I think I'll be coming back to see how this thing is doing before Sat's games.

Gook Luck, everybody.

 

[DuckDogs]

Good luck Jimbo - does the "sheet" dictate quarter or half plays or is that your discretion?

 

[Jimboski]

Reply

Reply

Thanks for the stop in and the good wishes, DD.

No it doesn't, that program is really complicated and does a lot just to figure 3 ratings, each of which is based on using a different system of using different combinations of factors (T/Over margin, average margin a team BEATS the spread by for each of it's games, opponent ratings, stuff like that). It does a lot of that kind of analysis using each of today's teams for their previous games and also takes into consideration their previous opponents to generate FACTORS (multipliers) that are used to adjust the current matchup numbers/stats. That's the part that I thought would give me a big edge over most "techical type players" that just use the current matchup reports. Then I study which rating or combination of ratings is working AND improving as the season progresses. Don't need to do that part anymo cause RATING NO. 3 RULES without a doubt for this year. Unfortunately, ratings no. 1 and 2 are doing well, but are inconsistent. The answer is to check out rating no. 3 and make sure that no. 1 or 2 agrees. The strength of the rating is what determines how strong the play is.

That's actually a VERY (too) long answer to just say it doesn't figure halves or quarters.
That would be a monumental project.

It did rate the Rutgers game as "Playable" with a weak vote for Rutgers to beat the spread. As we know now, they blew it late in the game.

I took that weak vote for Rutgers and added my own opinion that my alma mata (really, and that has no influence at all as to whether I play a game they are in) would hit that field last night with piss n vinegar and with a boisterous stadium full of fans behind them and lead early (1st quarter and half). It worked

Kinda scary cause EVERY dang thing I've been doing lately is working. It's probably asking too much for that to last through the Bowl games, but that has usually been my best part of the college footsball season in the past.

We'll see what happens.

Funny thing - like I wrote in my last thread,"I don't know what all them VIEWERS are looking for?". I was thinking it may have been that picture of the turkey I posted and I planned on posting a link to the website where I got it. LOL I fergots to do that. :facepalm:

One of the folks that has a working keyboard who always checks out the picks is interested in the SHEET'S DOG picks. I got a feeling you do to? Let me know if you want me to post it's top 3 DOG picks (it's been doing great with those kinda picks). But do remember that it's chances were MUCH better with it's top 3 dogs from analyzing 50+ games than from something like only 15 games like we have this week. .

Good luck, DuckDogs whatever you play.

 

[Jimboski]

Don't believe I'm doing this

Don't believe I'm doing this

Adding a play...
IMO, the absolute worse thing you can get hooked on - the TEASer. Playing these things long enough will turn an excellent handicapper into one that can no longer pick his nose. In that case, sticking with these temptations and I won't be able to find my nose. I liken it to practicing on a regulation pool table for a SNOOKER (tiny balls, tiny pockets, HUGE tables) tournament.There was one in the pool hall I used to play pool in many moons ago. I played on it one time, NEVA AGAIN cause it makes you look like an imbecile.

Haven't touched a teaser in over a year, But, I just cannot resist this one for 3x my normal parlay bet size which is another good reason to stay away from these things -

Pending 3 Team Teaser (ties lose) Teaser tl 10fb & 7bk
Pending 11/30/12 7:00pm College Football 306 Kent State +18? * vs Northern Illinois
Pending 11/30/12 8:00pm College Football 307 UCLA/Stanford Over 34? *
Pending 12/1/12 3:00pm College Football 325 Middle Tennessee State +20? * vs Arkansas State

It's odds are exactly like a regular side play (-110)

 

[DuckDogs]

Good Suff Jimbo - thanks for the reply

If you have time to post the dogs - I would definitely like to take a look. Always interesting to look at different info, and it looks like you have something going here with the sheet!

I tailed you on your memphis play last week - if you didn't see it in last week's thread - thanks again for the winnner:0008

Good luck this week - keep the hot streak going:toast:

 

[Jimboski]

Good Luck

Good Luck

Great to see that, DD.

Just caught me before I was gonna shut this mutha jumpa down, Been burning the nighttime lanterns long enough over this stuff. LOL

Here ya go SixFiver and DD.... . .

Kent St. +whatever the spread is. Win or lose, this team has become my favorite team this season and I never even saw them play or know a single player on them LOL

Mid Tenn State: you should be able to find +10 1/2. If not, make it that if you can.

er... ... .. KANSAS +20: that's what it was, now 19 1/2 at some places. What a pick :facepalm:
Did I add this one to any of my plays? Just closed my eyes and clicked on the bastage. Just can't ignore the Electronic Monster anymore.

Tail away, but I do suggest you don't unload on any cause those are the ONLY dogs it picked this week and there were far fewer games for it to pick from.

G.L.

 

[hogman14]

GL Jimmbo

 

[ldabdou]

Absolutely love Kansas..:0074

 

[Jimboski]

Hiya, HM. Get ready for you know what on SAT
If you see something good running, post it and I'll jump in your thread if you want. Otherwise, I'll start one. Good Luck, buddy.

Idabdou, thats great news. Feeling better about that pick now. I got them.

Looking forward to the Kent St. game tonight.

 

[jr7]

:0074

 

[Jimboski]

Not adding a thing (yet)

Not adding a thing (yet)

jr7, I think :0074 means either you like the pick(s) or Good Luck, but either way thanks for stopping in AND the "bump" up. Hmm.. it also means you don't like to type :mj07: (just hadda, jr.. only kidding the IMPORTANT thing is there's another person out there who's actually reading my "stuff". Thank you.). Now I got an opportunity to share another thought I've written about before.

Man, that Kent St. was a tough loss, they had the WINNING cards (for me) in their hands during the overtime. After K.S. went up by a field goal, Huskie score a touchdown or don't score and I win. Bastages kicked a field goal and the OT continued. SOMB! (oh, in the Race Track Forum that stands for SON-AH-Ma-BEACH ).

It's a great example why I think it's best to always buy a pt. or points or hooks in PARLAY plays to avoid certain key nos. You know what they are and I add 10 and 20 to the mix as well. In a sense, it's a customized teaser and pays much better than a regular teaser..

I couldn't come up with the "bestest bet" for this week, but Kent St. was VERY close to being one. Again -> "Bestest Bet" is a SINGLE, side play on one team that is best of the picks and it's played with enough to cover the cost of all the parlays plus some profit. Kent was a "semi" BB. That means that I didn't cough up the cost that it woulda been as a side play, but I did include them on TWO different parlays because it was so close to being a BB..

I failed to follow the rule about getting them off +6 1/2 and onto +7 in one of the parlay's. Now, that one is dead (too bad that one was my 5 teamer). But I DID on the other...

Pending 3 Team Parlay
Cancelled 11/30/12 7:00pm College Football 306 Kent State +7 -105* vs Northern Illinois
Pending 12/1/12 2:30pm College Football 321 Kansas +20? -130* vs West Virginia
Pending 12/1/12 4:00pm College Football 333 Alabama -310* vs Georgia

In fact, getting them through the "7" to 7 1/2 would have been better. The parlay is a skimpy one, but hey - it's still alive. That's what I'm talking about!!

Sure was an exciting game.

Hey jr, some friends used to call me that too, thems my initials, GOOD LUCK today.

 

[SixFive]

Kent is in at 7.5 and I even had 8 yesterday. :0074

Getem, Jimbo!

 

[Jimboski]

Good stuff

Good stuff

You picked a good one out of those doggie picks, SixFive. That was the one I liked best.

Can't believe I actually accepted +6 1/2 on Kent as a member of my 5 team parlay.. FLUCK!

Other parlays are still alive so I'm keeping my fingers crossed. Used a couple of NFLers in two of them (one NFLer in each). Don't like to tout my NFL plays cause I'm no where near as confident about them like my/SHEET college dudes picks. But here's one of them...
Cinncy Bengals score OVER 23 1/2 pts.

Get ready for some BOWL action, 6/5.

 

[Jimboski]

Wrap it up

Wrap it up

Feeling the pain, and I DON'T like it. :chairshot

A few more visitors with keyboards, that was nice to see, and plenty of Peepers. So I guess I gotta do the "Wrap Up" .... . . .

Not a good day and I was overdue for one of them. Even them Philly dirt bags (horses) didn't treat me so good either.

- there were only 7 top plays from the SHEET for me to wheel n deal with this weekend, thems went 3-4. But that is counting Kent St. as a loser (+6 1/2); many got + 7 or even 7 1/2.

- the parlays? Played 4; lost all. You can get lucky even with more losers than winners on your list with them parlays ESP. if you play them the way I described earlier. Pretty much try to keep EACH ONE unique that is. It depends on how the losers fall into them. Bad luck is when one of the (say there's 4 of them) losers falls into EACH parlay. Good luck with them is, even if you got many losing picks, none of the losers falls in one of the parlays. This week was the former .

- How bout that teaser? Middle Tenn State was a strong SHEET pick too. Anybody who comes up with a team on the wrong side of a 45 to ZERO game deserves to lose. There had to be something up with that game; NOT thinking "fix" more like multiple key players MIA?

- I didn't score ALL the SHEET'S picks for all the games this week, but I did go over it REAL quick like and it wasn't that bad. Looked like better than 50% anyways.

BTW, for the whole season , the losing margin (f'rinstance - it picks a 10 pt. favorite and they lose by 5 then the losing margin is -15) for Mid. Tenn St. was the absolute WORSTEST losing margin for ANY of the SHEET'S picks since the start of the season.

And I putem in the teaser which killed the teaser and in one of the regular parlay's (3 teamer) that also had 2 wieners.

SON-AH-MA-BEACH :banghead:

I think it'll rebound for the Bowls (not the toilet either).

G.L. NFLing (still like Bengals team total I posted earlier)