I posted the spreadsheet plays in past seasons, not regularly though, and it drew pretty decent views and replies. This season,I started posting it's plays in Week 4 (can't get decent results out of it until I fed it the first 3 weeks of play stats. It's a really complicated thing.) and there just wasn't much interest in it even though it did have a 9-2 week. I think it was week 6 or 7. Stopped posting it .
Thought I'd give it go for this week. I do know that Six/Five is interested in it.
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Planned on posting the SHEET's top 10 plays, only came out to 7 if you ignore New Mexico. They ain't necessarily in order.
Here ya go....
Minnie +20: Interpreting the sheet's ratings/calc. line comes into play when the spread is more than 2 TDs. It DOES pick the Cornhuskers, but not nearly what it would rate a 20 pt. fav. Normally, I'd expect a rating around +6 or better for a game with a spread like this in order for it to be a play and it's highest rating among the 3 ratings it calculates is 1.9. That is a weak pick for Neb. but not enough to overcome the spread in this situation and I agree that 20 pts is too much here. BTW, I tried to make this thing so that the rating IS the MARGIN that a team will beat or lose (minus rating) to the actual spread, but it just starts missing the mark when the spreads are huge. That 1.9 rating SUPPOSE to mean that Braska wins by 21, 22 pts.
Miss. State -6: not excited about this pick, but this time I'm not sticking my nose in it's picks. Personally, I don't have a play for this game and would go with the puter's play (it's a pretty strong pick too), but the Razorbacks got their act together after a tough start and have faced much stiffer competition IMO. They're just a shaky proposition to fade or play to me.
Marshall -3.5: I know Houston has all kinds of problems that the sheet doesn't even know about. I know zippo about Marshall. Still, think this one gets a nod as a "Parlay Stuffer" at -3 cause the regular matchup stats are quite favorable for Marsh in addition to the fact that the SHEET likes them a lot..
Northwestern +7: this one has the kinda nos. that spell M.L. doggie wiener. Not sure which way I'm gonna really play this one - take the pts. (in a parlay) and/or M.L. single play.
Rutgers +6: First time since I attended Rutgers that they really have a top notch team. Man, did they ever STINK when I went there. My luck has been very bad with them as a bettor.... .. win when I fadem and lose when I play them. May get some back this week after seeing how much the SHEET likes them.
Sooners -11: Minus 10 as a "Stuffer". They do pass, pass, pass ♫ ♫ ♪ they do pass, pass.
A little leery going against a good team on a long losing streak though ESP. at home.
New Mexico +10.5: Say WHA?? ONLY putting this one on the list cause, like I wrote - I'm only relaying the SHEET's picks and this is one of it's strongest rated plays it has this week. IGNORE IT! It's a logic problem (me, when I made this spreadsheet) not a software problem. I'm not changing a thing with it cause it's been doing very well, but for whatever reason, it has a strong affinity for teams that have a tremendous one sided attack -> running the dang ball. It luvs teams like Army, Navy, New Mexico, etc. Whether they cover or not, don't care and I just ignore it's picks in games that have teams like these.
Ark. State -3.5 (vs. Troy)
Stanford +21: Similar comment as for Minn. above. Ducks have used a balanced attack while going through their schedule to dispatch their opponent. Don't see that happening in this game with Stanford's excellent run defense and IF Stanford's freshman QB has one more performance like last week's this game could get verly interlesting
Good luck this week.
Thought I'd give it go for this week. I do know that Six/Five is interested in it.
. Planned on posting the SHEET's top 10 plays, only came out to 7 if you ignore New Mexico. They ain't necessarily in order.
Here ya go....
Minnie +20: Interpreting the sheet's ratings/calc. line comes into play when the spread is more than 2 TDs. It DOES pick the Cornhuskers, but not nearly what it would rate a 20 pt. fav. Normally, I'd expect a rating around +6 or better for a game with a spread like this in order for it to be a play and it's highest rating among the 3 ratings it calculates is 1.9. That is a weak pick for Neb. but not enough to overcome the spread in this situation and I agree that 20 pts is too much here. BTW, I tried to make this thing so that the rating IS the MARGIN that a team will beat or lose (minus rating) to the actual spread, but it just starts missing the mark when the spreads are huge. That 1.9 rating SUPPOSE to mean that Braska wins by 21, 22 pts.
Miss. State -6: not excited about this pick, but this time I'm not sticking my nose in it's picks. Personally, I don't have a play for this game and would go with the puter's play (it's a pretty strong pick too), but the Razorbacks got their act together after a tough start and have faced much stiffer competition IMO. They're just a shaky proposition to fade or play to me.
Marshall -3.5: I know Houston has all kinds of problems that the sheet doesn't even know about. I know zippo about Marshall. Still, think this one gets a nod as a "Parlay Stuffer" at -3 cause the regular matchup stats are quite favorable for Marsh in addition to the fact that the SHEET likes them a lot..
Northwestern +7: this one has the kinda nos. that spell M.L. doggie wiener. Not sure which way I'm gonna really play this one - take the pts. (in a parlay) and/or M.L. single play.
Rutgers +6: First time since I attended Rutgers that they really have a top notch team. Man, did they ever STINK when I went there. My luck has been very bad with them as a bettor.... .. win when I fadem and lose when I play them. May get some back this week after seeing how much the SHEET likes them.
Sooners -11: Minus 10 as a "Stuffer". They do pass, pass, pass ♫ ♫ ♪ they do pass, pass.
A little leery going against a good team on a long losing streak though ESP. at home.
New Mexico +10.5: Say WHA?? ONLY putting this one on the list cause, like I wrote - I'm only relaying the SHEET's picks and this is one of it's strongest rated plays it has this week. IGNORE IT! It's a logic problem (me, when I made this spreadsheet) not a software problem. I'm not changing a thing with it cause it's been doing very well, but for whatever reason, it has a strong affinity for teams that have a tremendous one sided attack -> running the dang ball. It luvs teams like Army, Navy, New Mexico, etc. Whether they cover or not, don't care and I just ignore it's picks in games that have teams like these.
Ark. State -3.5 (vs. Troy)
Stanford +21: Similar comment as for Minn. above. Ducks have used a balanced attack while going through their schedule to dispatch their opponent. Don't see that happening in this game with Stanford's excellent run defense and IF Stanford's freshman QB has one more performance like last week's this game could get verly interlesting
Good luck this week.
