Stock Market Thread - ALL COMBINED
- Thread starter vinnie
- Start date
yeah, i'd be back in too with a nice chunk of change in my pocket had i taken your advice and sold yesterday.
oh well, back to where i started yesterday morning.
Guys,
Not to be gloom and doom,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,but 1st quarter numbers will NOT be good for many companies.
I have been in the business (llicensed broker for over 20yrs) and this has the look of a sucker bounce if there ever was one.
The financials will get killed when the #'s come in the next couple of weeks.
Now you can make money in the market must pick ur spots very carefully.
Good Luck in whatever u do I just feel we haven't seen the bottom yet.
tonkgolf
Not to be gloom and doom,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,but 1st quarter numbers will NOT be good for many companies.
I have been in the business (llicensed broker for over 20yrs) and this has the look of a sucker bounce if there ever was one.
The financials will get killed when the #'s come in the next couple of weeks.
Now you can make money in the market must pick ur spots very carefully.
Good Luck in whatever u do I just feel we haven't seen the bottom yet.
tonkgolf
- Feb 12, 2000
- 10,652
- 39
- 48
- 50
I currently own DXD because I think the overall market is going to see a downturn.
Dawg,
Can't wait to see ya again at the golf outing!
Agressive play I like it like going for 18 at Belterra over the water:00hour
I have been telling clients to place stop losses on every trade to prevent getting caught one way or the other.
Good luck
Can't wait to see ya again at the golf outing!
Agressive play I like it like going for 18 at Belterra over the water:00hour
I have been telling clients to place stop losses on every trade to prevent getting caught one way or the other.
Good luck
from blog by Barry Ritholtz -
April 8th, 2009, 7:52AM Ever since Ben Bernanke?s 60 Minutes interview where he used the phrase ?Green Shoots,? many of the key data releases have been misinterpreted. This has led to a robust debate as to whether the worst is behind us.
In recent weeks, I have keyed in on 4 data points that the mainstream has spun positively, despite the actual data being horrific. These four factors include ISM data, New Home Sales, Existing Home Sales, and Non Farm Payroll.
Coming off historical lows (and in some cases, all time lows) in many data-points feels like things are getting better. In reality, things are getting worse, but more slowly. What is happening in the real world is the change in the rate of fall. The direction is still negative ? the economy is still contracting ? but it is doing so at a slower pace.
You may have heard the phrase ?second derivative? bandied about; most users of the term fail to define it in plain English. Here?s my attempt: Imagine you jump from a airplane ? for a while, you are free falling ? accelerating downwards at increasing speeds*. After a few thousand feet, you pull the rip cord and your parachute opens up. In terms of direction, you are still heading down; In terms of speed, however, even though you are falling, you are falling at a much slower rate. As the parachute deploys, you are decelerating ? the rate of your fall is slowing.
That pretty much sums up the economy lately ? still contracting, but at a slower rate than the panic period from September to February. But this does not mean we are yet on the ground. That lack of change could be called stability. And the economy is certainly not expanding. That is likely several quarters (or longer) away.
And those investors who made recent bets that Green Shoots are a great entry for investing ? well, they may be somewhat disappointed . . .
*Terminal Velocity to be discussed later
.........
The decline in January was was revised to minus 741k. It was the largest peacetime fall in Employment in raw numbers; Only the post WWII declines were larger ? 834,000 1949, and an astounding loss of ~two million jobs in 1945 ? were, according to the WSJ, one-time events, including a large coal and steel strike and by the end of World War II.
However, the 1949 data was when the the population was much smaller. Let?s put this into a broader context in percentage terms. Marketwatch?s Rex Nutting notes that over ?the past six months, 3.7 million jobs have been lost, or 2.7%, the second-largest percentage loss in 50 years.? Yes, its been that ugly.
..............
No, New Home Sales data did not improve. In fact, they were not only not positive, they were actually horrific. The year over year number was a terrible down 41%. Sales from this same period a year ago have nearly been halved.
Why did the media report this as positive?
Note that the month over month data at 4.7% ? plus or minus 18.3% ? is statistically insignificant. (i.e., meaningless). The reported data does not inform us if sales improved month-over-month or not. It is a range, from down -13.6% to plus 23%. Since ?zero? is part of that range, we can draw no conclusion. As the Census Department itself notes, ?the change is not statistically significant; that is, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease.?
The data does however, tell us that the year-over-year sales fell 41.1% plus or minus 7.9% gives us a range of -49% to -33.2%. The entire range is negative, therefore we can conclude sales fell year-over-year.
These are facts. This is data. This is how you interpret it. Most of the MSM reports (WSJ, Marketwatch, Bloomberg) were simply wrong.
Not nuanced, not shaded, but 2+2=5 wrong.
Let me remind that many of these folks incorrectly misinformed you that Housing wasn?t getting worse in 2006, 2007 and 2008 ? just as Home sales and prices went into an historic freefall. Now, these same folks are misinforming you that Housing has turned around and is improving. That is simply unsupported by the data.
(And don?t even ask about television ? they simply read the wrong news. Here is a life lesson for you: Never believe news people who read teleprompters. They have no idea what they are doing, they are reading what someone else wrote. When it comes to data interpretation, they are quite literally clueless. Rely on news readers to your personal financial detriment).
The bottom line: Learn to interpret data correctly. Avoid using the people who cannot do so as primary news sources.
...........
Market bear Roubini sticks to dour forecasts
Tuesday April 7, 2009, 9:29 pm EDT
By Jennifer Kwan
TORONTO (Reuters) - There's still bad news ahead for the U.S. economy -- and by extension for Canada -- and the bear market for stocks is not over yet, according to a prominent economist who foretold much of the current turmoil.
Nouriel Roubini, a professor at New York University's Stern School of Business and chairman of economic research firm RGE Monitor, said on Tuesday that he expected more dour macroeconomic data and problems in the banking and housing sectors, as well as pressures on consumers.
Big stimulus packages will eventually slow the rate at which economies contract, but that will take time, he added.
"There will be a light at the end of the tunnel somewhere down the line, later rather than sooner," he said at a Toronto news conference, which took place ahead of a Sprott Asset Management event entitled "A Night with the Bears."
Roubini, who made a name for himself by sounding early warning signs about housing bubbles and credit crises, earlier told Canada's BNN television that he still believed the recent market upturn represented a bear market rally, and not a change in sentiment.
"Macro news, earnings news and financial shocks are going to be worse than expected and that's why I believe this is still a bear market rally," he told BNN.
April 8th, 2009, 7:52AM Ever since Ben Bernanke?s 60 Minutes interview where he used the phrase ?Green Shoots,? many of the key data releases have been misinterpreted. This has led to a robust debate as to whether the worst is behind us.
In recent weeks, I have keyed in on 4 data points that the mainstream has spun positively, despite the actual data being horrific. These four factors include ISM data, New Home Sales, Existing Home Sales, and Non Farm Payroll.
Coming off historical lows (and in some cases, all time lows) in many data-points feels like things are getting better. In reality, things are getting worse, but more slowly. What is happening in the real world is the change in the rate of fall. The direction is still negative ? the economy is still contracting ? but it is doing so at a slower pace.
You may have heard the phrase ?second derivative? bandied about; most users of the term fail to define it in plain English. Here?s my attempt: Imagine you jump from a airplane ? for a while, you are free falling ? accelerating downwards at increasing speeds*. After a few thousand feet, you pull the rip cord and your parachute opens up. In terms of direction, you are still heading down; In terms of speed, however, even though you are falling, you are falling at a much slower rate. As the parachute deploys, you are decelerating ? the rate of your fall is slowing.
That pretty much sums up the economy lately ? still contracting, but at a slower rate than the panic period from September to February. But this does not mean we are yet on the ground. That lack of change could be called stability. And the economy is certainly not expanding. That is likely several quarters (or longer) away.
And those investors who made recent bets that Green Shoots are a great entry for investing ? well, they may be somewhat disappointed . . .
*Terminal Velocity to be discussed later
.........
The decline in January was was revised to minus 741k. It was the largest peacetime fall in Employment in raw numbers; Only the post WWII declines were larger ? 834,000 1949, and an astounding loss of ~two million jobs in 1945 ? were, according to the WSJ, one-time events, including a large coal and steel strike and by the end of World War II.
However, the 1949 data was when the the population was much smaller. Let?s put this into a broader context in percentage terms. Marketwatch?s Rex Nutting notes that over ?the past six months, 3.7 million jobs have been lost, or 2.7%, the second-largest percentage loss in 50 years.? Yes, its been that ugly.
..............
No, New Home Sales data did not improve. In fact, they were not only not positive, they were actually horrific. The year over year number was a terrible down 41%. Sales from this same period a year ago have nearly been halved.
Why did the media report this as positive?
Note that the month over month data at 4.7% ? plus or minus 18.3% ? is statistically insignificant. (i.e., meaningless). The reported data does not inform us if sales improved month-over-month or not. It is a range, from down -13.6% to plus 23%. Since ?zero? is part of that range, we can draw no conclusion. As the Census Department itself notes, ?the change is not statistically significant; that is, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease.?
The data does however, tell us that the year-over-year sales fell 41.1% plus or minus 7.9% gives us a range of -49% to -33.2%. The entire range is negative, therefore we can conclude sales fell year-over-year.
These are facts. This is data. This is how you interpret it. Most of the MSM reports (WSJ, Marketwatch, Bloomberg) were simply wrong.
Not nuanced, not shaded, but 2+2=5 wrong.
Let me remind that many of these folks incorrectly misinformed you that Housing wasn?t getting worse in 2006, 2007 and 2008 ? just as Home sales and prices went into an historic freefall. Now, these same folks are misinforming you that Housing has turned around and is improving. That is simply unsupported by the data.
(And don?t even ask about television ? they simply read the wrong news. Here is a life lesson for you: Never believe news people who read teleprompters. They have no idea what they are doing, they are reading what someone else wrote. When it comes to data interpretation, they are quite literally clueless. Rely on news readers to your personal financial detriment).
The bottom line: Learn to interpret data correctly. Avoid using the people who cannot do so as primary news sources.
...........
Market bear Roubini sticks to dour forecasts
Tuesday April 7, 2009, 9:29 pm EDT
By Jennifer Kwan
TORONTO (Reuters) - There's still bad news ahead for the U.S. economy -- and by extension for Canada -- and the bear market for stocks is not over yet, according to a prominent economist who foretold much of the current turmoil.
Nouriel Roubini, a professor at New York University's Stern School of Business and chairman of economic research firm RGE Monitor, said on Tuesday that he expected more dour macroeconomic data and problems in the banking and housing sectors, as well as pressures on consumers.
Big stimulus packages will eventually slow the rate at which economies contract, but that will take time, he added.
"There will be a light at the end of the tunnel somewhere down the line, later rather than sooner," he said at a Toronto news conference, which took place ahead of a Sprott Asset Management event entitled "A Night with the Bears."
Roubini, who made a name for himself by sounding early warning signs about housing bubbles and credit crises, earlier told Canada's BNN television that he still believed the recent market upturn represented a bear market rally, and not a change in sentiment.
"Macro news, earnings news and financial shocks are going to be worse than expected and that's why I believe this is still a bear market rally," he told BNN.
This looks like one of those ETF's that can't make money. If you bought it a year ago, you would be essentially flat - even though the market collapse should have doubled your money.
- Feb 12, 2000
- 10,652
- 39
- 48
- 50
yeah. just playing it on the short term. i have my sell order at 62.00. Currently right at 60.00. Bought them just over 56.00.
Dawg I never thought F would run so far. I still think we get another chance. But at higher number witch may ruin it. Good Luck with srz and everyone else.
From his lips to Wall Street's ears
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today is going to be a great day in the market despite Obama, hopefully a 500+day to end the week, how about good Thursday
the market fell because of DEMOCRATS in CONGRESS giving loans to every Tom Dick and Harry that wanted a home, :nono: not Bush
