yeah, saw chadman post that in politics. scary shit, huh? that's why i'm staying close to my buttons here when the market is in session.
Stock Market Thread - ALL COMBINED
- Thread starter vinnie
- Start date
yeah, saw chadman post that in politics. scary shit, huh? that's why i'm staying close to my buttons here when the market is in session.
- Feb 12, 2000
- 10,652
- 39
- 48
- 50
- Feb 12, 2000
- 10,652
- 39
- 48
- 50
No but I will be staying at a Holiday Inn Express this weekend :SIB
just sold all my JNY & some GE this last week both are well over $2 higher today :sadwave:
Maybe they are loaded with sponges that's why they are so high out of the water :shrug:
Stocks were higher Wednesday, supported by a strong reading of industrial production.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was recently up 32 pointsat 9715, led by a 4.7% gain in industrial bellwether General Electric.
Other big gainers among the blue chips included Alcoa, up 2.3%, and DuPont, up 1.7%. But Verizon Communications fell 2.6% after being cut to a "neutral" rating from "buy" by UBS, which reduced its 2009 earnings forecast for the carrier.
"We believe that the business market continues to worsen and is unlikely to improve by 2010. :scared We also expect a slowdown in consumer metrics in the third quarter," UBS said in its report.:0corn
Those comments hinted at glum expectations for the broader U.S. economy. However, big-picture data released on Wednesday were generally favorable.
The Federal Reserve reported that industrial production jumped 0.8% in August as factories boosted production of cars, machinery, food products, clothing and other goods. The latest report was slightly better than analysts expected.
In other data Wedneday, the consumer-price index rose 0.4% in August, the Labor Department said Wednesday, in line with the expectations of economists. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, increased 0.1%, as expected. Despite the monthly increase in the overall index, consumer prices were down 1.5% compared to one year ago.
Other stock indexes rose in recent action. The Nasdaq Composite Index gained 0.5%. The S&P 500 rose 0.6%, helped by a gains of about 1.7% in its energy sector as oil prices rose after a bullish inventory report.
Major market yardsticks have recently pushed to the highest levels since last fall and have remained within reach of those benchmarks so far on Wednesday. The Dow is on a two-day winning streak and has risen in eight of the last nine sessions, helped in part by comments on Tuesday from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. He said that from a technical perspective, the "recession is very likely over at this point."
Those gains helped to spark gains in overseas markets prior to the opening bell in New York. Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 0.5%. Britain's FTSE 100 rose 1.6%.
Commodity prices have been pushing up lately on growing hopes for a global economic recovery, with metals prices in particular gaining strength. Spot gold prices jumped to the highest levels in 18 months, trading near $1,017 in recent activity.
Gold's gains fed a continued push into mining stocks, which helped to boost the broader materials sector. Shares of Barrick Gold were up more than 2%. The S&P 500's basic-materials sector gained 0.9%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was recently up 32 pointsat 9715, led by a 4.7% gain in industrial bellwether General Electric.
Other big gainers among the blue chips included Alcoa, up 2.3%, and DuPont, up 1.7%. But Verizon Communications fell 2.6% after being cut to a "neutral" rating from "buy" by UBS, which reduced its 2009 earnings forecast for the carrier.
"We believe that the business market continues to worsen and is unlikely to improve by 2010. :scared We also expect a slowdown in consumer metrics in the third quarter," UBS said in its report.:0corn
Those comments hinted at glum expectations for the broader U.S. economy. However, big-picture data released on Wednesday were generally favorable.
The Federal Reserve reported that industrial production jumped 0.8% in August as factories boosted production of cars, machinery, food products, clothing and other goods. The latest report was slightly better than analysts expected.
In other data Wedneday, the consumer-price index rose 0.4% in August, the Labor Department said Wednesday, in line with the expectations of economists. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, increased 0.1%, as expected. Despite the monthly increase in the overall index, consumer prices were down 1.5% compared to one year ago.
Other stock indexes rose in recent action. The Nasdaq Composite Index gained 0.5%. The S&P 500 rose 0.6%, helped by a gains of about 1.7% in its energy sector as oil prices rose after a bullish inventory report.
Major market yardsticks have recently pushed to the highest levels since last fall and have remained within reach of those benchmarks so far on Wednesday. The Dow is on a two-day winning streak and has risen in eight of the last nine sessions, helped in part by comments on Tuesday from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. He said that from a technical perspective, the "recession is very likely over at this point."
Those gains helped to spark gains in overseas markets prior to the opening bell in New York. Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 0.5%. Britain's FTSE 100 rose 1.6%.
Commodity prices have been pushing up lately on growing hopes for a global economic recovery, with metals prices in particular gaining strength. Spot gold prices jumped to the highest levels in 18 months, trading near $1,017 in recent activity.
Gold's gains fed a continued push into mining stocks, which helped to boost the broader materials sector. Shares of Barrick Gold were up more than 2%. The S&P 500's basic-materials sector gained 0.9%.
- Feb 12, 2000
- 10,652
- 39
- 48
- 50
i guess i didn't explain that this is the reason i posted the story here. i wanted yours and vinnie's take on it since you have been playing the stocks in/out.
I have been trying to get you into the S&P 500 for over a month now
u still have GE right :shrug:
- Feb 12, 2000
- 10,652
- 39
- 48
- 50
I have been trying to get you into the S&P 500 for over a month now
I meant specifically on the shippers. This seems like pretty bad news overall for the shipping industry. But there's probably a reason why they are going up now.
Generally, you and I disagree on the mid-term future of the S&P. I don't see our economy in full recovery mode right now.
I sold GE for nice gains... but they would have been nicer if I would have listened to my boy, vinnie, and hung on for the longer haul.
look at the stock prices. they are way down from a year ago.
i think your one quote is exagerated. well, i know it is.
some companies can afford to weather the bad times, some have solid long term contracts, and, like vinnie said, take advantage because they will lose competitors, buy competitors, etc.
i guess :shrug:
- Feb 12, 2000
- 10,652
- 39
- 48
- 50
both of your points make sense. correcting the over-correction
And buying up fledgling competitors at a discount.
I think the current overall market correction of the over-correction is actually on the heels of another over-correction. :tongue
Our market was not worth 13,000 and was worth more than 6,300. I think 7500 - 9500 is where we will settle in with the current economy.
(only putting this down so you guys can quote me later when I'm proven wrong and you're cashing your chips in at 12,000) :SIB
did you sell SRZ too :shrug:I sold GE for nice gains... but they would have been nicer if I would have listened to my boy, vinnie, and hung on for the longer haul.
- Feb 12, 2000
- 10,652
- 39
- 48
- 50
read this guy's posts. he seems to know what he's talking about. he sure knows how things work better than i do. he also posted some interesting articles and youtube videos. scary shit going on.
http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/search.php?searchid=5497841
I want to narrow my thoughts to a single post. First and foremost, I want to thank every single member that has left me a positive message on various threads these past few weeks. At least I now know most of my thoughts and analysis do not go unnoticed. I am also glad that you have all allowed yourselves to look and analyze the other side of the story most of the times, but most importantly, that you have allowed yourselves to think for yourselves(as it should).
However, let me forewarn everyone right now about what is going on. People in the know are slowly shorting into this rally day after day. Although it might not seem evident at first, I ask everyone one of you to look into this closely for the next few trading days (weeks) and you?ll spot them shorting different stocks every day. To what point will this rally implode?, I don?t know, but it will happen within the next 5 years(at most). In the meantime, you have complete lunatics such as Cramer calling for $100 on JPM, $350 on GS, $250 on AAPL, $140 on FCX, etc all based on accounting changes and no fundamental improvement. Those calls are completely unfounded and will never come to fruition simply because there is enough gravitas to support it.
The United States is in deep doodoo short term (long term it faces some hurdles but with innovation, she will most likely recover to realistic levels later down the road(2nd tier country just like Russia). There is simply no other way to put it. As Peter said earlier, the government is replacing the consumer in BOTH the demand and supply side. It doesn?t take a genius to see that this trend cannot and will not last far longer, eventually leaving a hallow hole in the economy that must be payed for somehow (in the end it will be you that will pay for this by lowering your standard of leaving substantially. Events and the reasons leading to this should be fairly obvious, at least the basics).
The government is essentially playing fire with the debt market, betting that its exponential ascent will last forever without any consequences, but what they don?t know (or at the very least grossly underestimate), is that at this pace, every $1 the Federal Reserve creates will have a negative impact on GDP by 2013(shrinking multiplier), in which case the economy will completely shut down(I?ve said how many times before but this is what we are heading for). Of course, the FED will remove all this ?extra? liquidity from the system before then to ?control? inflation?(2-3 years out) but will unfortunately either be to late or not do it in a successful fashion. Just as the Federal Reserve was late to intervene in the debt/credit markets before prices spiraled out of control, they will be late in pulling out of the economy, that even if they do manage to pull out in time and with much less effort than most people expect, the vitality of the global economy will once again stand in great peril. Again, all of the problems lay with the consumer. PEOPLE DO NOT HAVE MONEY FOR ANYTHING, MUCH LESS TO INVEST. ALL OF THIS ?EXCESS? MONEY HAS GONE TO BANKS and MARKETS TO CREATE THIS FALSE OPTICAL ILLUSION THAT THINGS HAVE IMPROVED. TRUTH IS, LITTLEOF THIS MONEY HAS ACTUALLY GONE TO THE CONSUMER.
There cannot possibly be a jobless recovery, that I just a fact. As long as we have unemployment above 6%, we are in danger of another dip. Part of the reason why we have rallied, is actually because, in large part, the psychology of this market has completely changed for the worst actually. People need to believe in something, and that something is hope, hope of a recovery. Unfortunately, as I have said many times before, the empirical tell me otherwise and I simply cannot fight that. I do not study hope, I study numbers, and as such, market participants are buying into a market that is grossly overbought by all accounts. The S&P is worth about 500-550(on a pro forma count(not really a tool I would use to calculate true value but for arguments sake, I?m using it since most everyone uses it). Now, is it necessarily going to go there?, not necessarily but it can and most likely will come close to those levels 1-3 years out. How so?. Say 2010 earnings come in around $50(high end), put a multiple of 10-11(fair for period of multiple contraction), and you have a fair value of the S&P at around those levels (500-550).
As an aside, be watchful of the FX market. Once that market goes bust, it will trigger the debt market to go bust, which will then force the government to exit at all costs. This will be the period in which you will get another selling frenzy, not because credit is frozen, but because expectations must(by force of the market) be lowered, both on the demand and supply side, and there is no money to backstop all of this artificial money creation generated since the late 30?s. Furthermore, the dollar has always been a good indicator of economies overall health. Right now the dollar is telling you, the economy is in for another dip 1-3 years down the road, alongside the GPB and EUR(in tandum). When?, I don?t know the precise answer yet until I see massive money flows start to take place from sector to sector(right now money is mute). As I said earlier, my bet is that it will happen anywhere between 2010-2012. I might be wrong in the date and it might actually take a couple of more years to unravel but that it is going to happen, it is going to happen. We have lived far to long in the world of ponies. Time to claw back to reality.
I truly hope Americans recovers from this. God knows what you have all allowed yourselves to be digged into.
There is a brief take of where my thoughts are. Catch you all soon.
<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/search.php?searchid=5497841
I want to narrow my thoughts to a single post. First and foremost, I want to thank every single member that has left me a positive message on various threads these past few weeks. At least I now know most of my thoughts and analysis do not go unnoticed. I am also glad that you have all allowed yourselves to look and analyze the other side of the story most of the times, but most importantly, that you have allowed yourselves to think for yourselves(as it should).
However, let me forewarn everyone right now about what is going on. People in the know are slowly shorting into this rally day after day. Although it might not seem evident at first, I ask everyone one of you to look into this closely for the next few trading days (weeks) and you?ll spot them shorting different stocks every day. To what point will this rally implode?, I don?t know, but it will happen within the next 5 years(at most). In the meantime, you have complete lunatics such as Cramer calling for $100 on JPM, $350 on GS, $250 on AAPL, $140 on FCX, etc all based on accounting changes and no fundamental improvement. Those calls are completely unfounded and will never come to fruition simply because there is enough gravitas to support it.
The United States is in deep doodoo short term (long term it faces some hurdles but with innovation, she will most likely recover to realistic levels later down the road(2nd tier country just like Russia). There is simply no other way to put it. As Peter said earlier, the government is replacing the consumer in BOTH the demand and supply side. It doesn?t take a genius to see that this trend cannot and will not last far longer, eventually leaving a hallow hole in the economy that must be payed for somehow (in the end it will be you that will pay for this by lowering your standard of leaving substantially. Events and the reasons leading to this should be fairly obvious, at least the basics).
The government is essentially playing fire with the debt market, betting that its exponential ascent will last forever without any consequences, but what they don?t know (or at the very least grossly underestimate), is that at this pace, every $1 the Federal Reserve creates will have a negative impact on GDP by 2013(shrinking multiplier), in which case the economy will completely shut down(I?ve said how many times before but this is what we are heading for). Of course, the FED will remove all this ?extra? liquidity from the system before then to ?control? inflation?(2-3 years out) but will unfortunately either be to late or not do it in a successful fashion. Just as the Federal Reserve was late to intervene in the debt/credit markets before prices spiraled out of control, they will be late in pulling out of the economy, that even if they do manage to pull out in time and with much less effort than most people expect, the vitality of the global economy will once again stand in great peril. Again, all of the problems lay with the consumer. PEOPLE DO NOT HAVE MONEY FOR ANYTHING, MUCH LESS TO INVEST. ALL OF THIS ?EXCESS? MONEY HAS GONE TO BANKS and MARKETS TO CREATE THIS FALSE OPTICAL ILLUSION THAT THINGS HAVE IMPROVED. TRUTH IS, LITTLEOF THIS MONEY HAS ACTUALLY GONE TO THE CONSUMER.
There cannot possibly be a jobless recovery, that I just a fact. As long as we have unemployment above 6%, we are in danger of another dip. Part of the reason why we have rallied, is actually because, in large part, the psychology of this market has completely changed for the worst actually. People need to believe in something, and that something is hope, hope of a recovery. Unfortunately, as I have said many times before, the empirical tell me otherwise and I simply cannot fight that. I do not study hope, I study numbers, and as such, market participants are buying into a market that is grossly overbought by all accounts. The S&P is worth about 500-550(on a pro forma count(not really a tool I would use to calculate true value but for arguments sake, I?m using it since most everyone uses it). Now, is it necessarily going to go there?, not necessarily but it can and most likely will come close to those levels 1-3 years out. How so?. Say 2010 earnings come in around $50(high end), put a multiple of 10-11(fair for period of multiple contraction), and you have a fair value of the S&P at around those levels (500-550).
As an aside, be watchful of the FX market. Once that market goes bust, it will trigger the debt market to go bust, which will then force the government to exit at all costs. This will be the period in which you will get another selling frenzy, not because credit is frozen, but because expectations must(by force of the market) be lowered, both on the demand and supply side, and there is no money to backstop all of this artificial money creation generated since the late 30?s. Furthermore, the dollar has always been a good indicator of economies overall health. Right now the dollar is telling you, the economy is in for another dip 1-3 years down the road, alongside the GPB and EUR(in tandum). When?, I don?t know the precise answer yet until I see massive money flows start to take place from sector to sector(right now money is mute). As I said earlier, my bet is that it will happen anywhere between 2010-2012. I might be wrong in the date and it might actually take a couple of more years to unravel but that it is going to happen, it is going to happen. We have lived far to long in the world of ponies. Time to claw back to reality.
I truly hope Americans recovers from this. God knows what you have all allowed yourselves to be digged into.
There is a brief take of where my thoughts are. Catch you all soon.
<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
