Stock Market Thread - ALL COMBINED
- Thread starter vinnie
- Start date
Not yet - waiting to pounce on a stock as soon as it drops a little. Buying 4,000 shares. Hopefully.
Sell in May and go away: fact or fallacy?
Where is the stock market heading? Has the rally that started in early March been exhausted? These are the key questions on all investors? minds as financial markets remain caught between the frantic actions of central banks to get the cogs of the credit system and economy turning again on the one hand, and a still shaky economic and corporate outlook on the other.
It is therefore no wonder that even so-called ?pop analysis?, including some legendary axioms, is resorted to in a quest for direction. And besides ?buy low and sell high? few other axioms are more widely propagated than ?sell in May and go away?. A Google search revealed an astounding 127,000 items featuring this phrase.
As equities have seen a particularly strong six-week rally, followed by what looks like the start of a consolidation/retracement of some of the recent gains, investors are justifiably questioning the market?s next move. And they nervously wonder whether this May will not only herald longer days in the Northern Hemisphere, but also live up to its reputation as the advent of a corrective phase in the markets.
The important issue, however, is whether this axiom actually has any scientific basis at all. Analyzing historical returns, the figures vary from market to market, but long-term statistics seem to show that the best time to be invested in equities is the six months from early November through to the end of April of the next year (?good? periods), while the ?bad? periods normally occur over the six months from May to October.
A study of the MSCI World Index, a commonly used benchmark for global equity markets, reveals that since 1969 ?good? periods returned +6.5% per annum while investors were actually in the red by -1.0% per annum during the ?bad? periods.
?Sell in May and go away? also holds true for the US stock markets. An updated study by Plexus Asset Management of the S&P 500 Index shows that the returns of the ?good? six-month periods from January 1950 to March 2009 were 7.9% per annum whereas those of the ?bad? periods were 2.5% per annum.
A study of the pattern in monthly returns reveals that the ?bad? periods of the S&P 500 Index are quite distinct, with five of the six months from May to October having lower average monthly returns than the six months of the good periods. Interestingly, May ? the first month of the bad patch ? is the only exception.
Historical average returns from May to October in emerging markets also tended to be weaker than those from November to April, as shown in the graph below (hat tip: US Global Funds).
But what exactly does this mean for the investor who contemplates timing the market by selling in May and reinvesting in November? Further analysis shows that had one kept the investment in the S&P 500 Index only during the ?good? six-month periods, and reinvested the proceeds in the money market during the ?bad? six-month periods, the total return would have been 10.5% per annum.
These calculations do not take tax into account. And, of course, every time one switches out of and back into the stock market there are costs involved, which would also reduce the returns for the market timer.
How did the good and bad periods stack up during the past two years? The results are as follows.
? May 2007 ? October 2007: +4.52%
? November 2007 ? April 2008: -9.62%
? May 2008 ? October 2008: -30.1%
? November 2008 ? April 2009: -5.1%
Some you win, some you don?t! It seems that the axiom ?sell in May and go away? in itself is a rather doubtful basis for timing equity investments. However, it may serve a useful purpose as input, together with other factors, to otherwise rational decision making.
Where is the stock market heading? Has the rally that started in early March been exhausted? These are the key questions on all investors? minds as financial markets remain caught between the frantic actions of central banks to get the cogs of the credit system and economy turning again on the one hand, and a still shaky economic and corporate outlook on the other.
It is therefore no wonder that even so-called ?pop analysis?, including some legendary axioms, is resorted to in a quest for direction. And besides ?buy low and sell high? few other axioms are more widely propagated than ?sell in May and go away?. A Google search revealed an astounding 127,000 items featuring this phrase.
As equities have seen a particularly strong six-week rally, followed by what looks like the start of a consolidation/retracement of some of the recent gains, investors are justifiably questioning the market?s next move. And they nervously wonder whether this May will not only herald longer days in the Northern Hemisphere, but also live up to its reputation as the advent of a corrective phase in the markets.
The important issue, however, is whether this axiom actually has any scientific basis at all. Analyzing historical returns, the figures vary from market to market, but long-term statistics seem to show that the best time to be invested in equities is the six months from early November through to the end of April of the next year (?good? periods), while the ?bad? periods normally occur over the six months from May to October.
A study of the MSCI World Index, a commonly used benchmark for global equity markets, reveals that since 1969 ?good? periods returned +6.5% per annum while investors were actually in the red by -1.0% per annum during the ?bad? periods.
?Sell in May and go away? also holds true for the US stock markets. An updated study by Plexus Asset Management of the S&P 500 Index shows that the returns of the ?good? six-month periods from January 1950 to March 2009 were 7.9% per annum whereas those of the ?bad? periods were 2.5% per annum.
A study of the pattern in monthly returns reveals that the ?bad? periods of the S&P 500 Index are quite distinct, with five of the six months from May to October having lower average monthly returns than the six months of the good periods. Interestingly, May ? the first month of the bad patch ? is the only exception.
Historical average returns from May to October in emerging markets also tended to be weaker than those from November to April, as shown in the graph below (hat tip: US Global Funds).
But what exactly does this mean for the investor who contemplates timing the market by selling in May and reinvesting in November? Further analysis shows that had one kept the investment in the S&P 500 Index only during the ?good? six-month periods, and reinvested the proceeds in the money market during the ?bad? six-month periods, the total return would have been 10.5% per annum.
These calculations do not take tax into account. And, of course, every time one switches out of and back into the stock market there are costs involved, which would also reduce the returns for the market timer.
How did the good and bad periods stack up during the past two years? The results are as follows.
? May 2007 ? October 2007: +4.52%
? November 2007 ? April 2008: -9.62%
? May 2008 ? October 2008: -30.1%
? November 2008 ? April 2009: -5.1%
Some you win, some you don?t! It seems that the axiom ?sell in May and go away? in itself is a rather doubtful basis for timing equity investments. However, it may serve a useful purpose as input, together with other factors, to otherwise rational decision making.
take a look at this one for a possible quick trade. I bought 5000 shares on the 13th @ 1.028; trading @ 1.30 this morning...
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=RTK
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=RTK
Been meaning to pull the trigger on this one for a while now but always get cold feet. Maybe this week? :shrug:
take a look at this one for a possible quick trade. I bought 5000 shares on the 13th @ 1.028; trading @ 1.30 this morning...
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=RTK
Interesting. I'll dig deeper.
thanks
I'm surprised it didn't run up after their earnings report. I'm thinking there will be a nice run soon.
Just got done reading about the test flight United did with the synthetic jet fuel that Rentech makes. It was a 60/40 blend and they are still looking at the data they gathered.
This stock could explode if the testing went well and other airlines commit to using this fuel.
think i just talked myself into 5000 more shares...:142smilie
Link to article here:
http://biofuelsdigest.com/bdigest/2...els-test-flight-using-rentech-synthetic-fuel/
Yeah, I read it. I saw they did over 9 million shares Friday and then went looking around to see why and found that news release. Could be big :shrug:
Wish I'd have pulled the trigger this morning as I could have got it @ 1.30. Closed @ 1.35. Should be interesting to see what happens with this stock over the next few days and weeks.
Good Morning! Market starting the up's and down's once again. That should lead to some good buy's.
RTK believe you may get it today 1.30. I have order in for 7500 shares at that price.
GNVC is back down in buying range under .70c. THiS has been a money maker.
Jack. ICO I still have 1500 SH and I'm getting that sell feal. I got in a little higher then you at 3.65 back in Feb. With a gain of almost 2 bucks for a short time play hard not to sell.
GL
RTK believe you may get it today 1.30. I have order in for 7500 shares at that price.
GNVC is back down in buying range under .70c. THiS has been a money maker.
Jack. ICO I still have 1500 SH and I'm getting that sell feal. I got in a little higher then you at 3.65 back in Feb. With a gain of almost 2 bucks for a short time play hard not to sell.
GL
