Stock Market Thread - ALL COMBINED
- Thread starter vinnie
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I hate agreeing with the bulk of inverstors.. "Sell in May and stay away"
I've set some triggers to sell, if they fill I'm out for hte Summer.. It might get brutal.. even the puts are losing today in an up market
I've set some triggers to sell, if they fill I'm out for hte Summer.. It might get brutal.. even the puts are losing today in an up market
Anyone else take the time to wade through the 10-K from ACTC that showed up in my mailbox yesterday? 
Spent an hour or so reading it--while not understanding it completely, I learned a lot.
Think this stock will go through the roof when--not if, but when....:0074 the trials are proven to work and work safely on humans....
Spent an hour or so reading it--while not understanding it completely, I learned a lot.
Think this stock will go through the roof when--not if, but when....:0074 the trials are proven to work and work safely on humans....
Glad I didn't hold those puts over the long weekend since it's pushing much higher this morning. I think this is setting up nicely for a BIG pullback maybe later in the week. Just watching and will be ready
opcorn2Why Short Sellers are Wrong About Ford
America's greatest turnaround story looks like it's stuck in the mud. Shares of Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) raced from under $2 in early 2009 to above $18 in early 2011. A move toward the $25 mark started to become the next target for many analysts, myself included. Instead, shares have drifted steadily lower and now trade below $15. Even at that lower level, shares are heavily shorted. Many analysts clearly expect the stock to fall even further, but their logic looks flawed.
==============
A commodity drag
After losing a cumulative $7.5 billion in 2008 and 2009, Ford earned a hefty $6.7 billion ($1.91 a share) in 2010. By late last year, analysts started to wonder if $2.50 a share or even $3 a share in profits might be possible by 2012. Now a series of headwinds have altered that view. Short sellers increasingly aver that Ford's profits may actually drop in 2011 and 2012. They note that commodity prices are rising even faster than Ford can increase prices.
What these bears are missing is the volume part of the equation. Ford looks set to sell even more cars in 2011, leveraging incremental gains off of its massive base of fixed costs. (Industrywide, Merrill Lynch expects U.S. vehicle sales to rise 21% in 2011 to 14 million .) In fact, the gains from increased car sales are likely to be somewhat larger than the drag associated with pricier raw materials.
Let's do the math.
A typical vehicle contains about $3,500 in raw materials. Steel accounts for roughly 30% of that and rubber another 20%. Yet the recent spike in commodities figured to take the total raw material cost up by $800 to about $4,300. But in the past two weeks, commodity prices have cooled a bit, and the raw-material cost disparity now looks to be closer to $400.
That's a key figure for Ford. The company has recently hiked prices on many models by an average of $200, and projections of higher sales volume this year, which generate robust incremental profits on each extra feature sold, could more than offset the $400 drag. Add in the fact that incentives are quickly dropping (they were 19% lower in the first quarter compared with a year ago), and the average selling price is actually more than $1,000 higher for a comparable vehicle.
===============
The Japan factor
It's also become increasingly clear that Japan's woes related to the recent earthquake and tsunami will have a clear, positive effect on the U.S. auto industry. The amount of Japanese vehicles sitting on dealer lots is shrinking fast, with expectations that some models will run out by June. By then, Ford, GM (NYSE: GM) and other non-Japanese manufacturers should be able to pick up some market share throughout the summer, perhaps setting the stage for third-quarter results that are noticeably stronger than current forecasts suggest. A reduced supply of Japanese vehicles carries another implication, as Merrill Lynch's analysts note: "Although this is a near-term pressure on volume, it is also a positive for pricing."
=============
Too conservative?
Unlike short sellers, which have been anticipating an outright drop in profits this year, most Wall Street analysts believe Ford's profits will be flat in 2011 and 2012, as rising sales volume roughly offsets spiking commodities. But as noted earlier, commodities are pulling back a bit and sales volume could prove to be impressive if the company can take market share from the Japanese auto makers.
This is why I think the profit view is too conservative. I increasingly suspect Ford can earn closer to $2.25 a share this year, roughly 15% above 2010 levels. First-quarter profits topped estimates by 24% and Goldman Sachs looks for continued outperformance: "We expect 2Q and 3Q earnings to be positive catalysts illustrating the company's ability to drive earnings growth even in a rising commodity price environment." If Ford could earn $2.25 a share this year, then shares would trade for less than seven times that view.
Yet a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio may not even be the best gauge, since Ford's earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) is far higher than its earnings per share (EPS), thanks to a high degree of amortization and interest expense. Ford shares trade for less than four times consensus 2011 EBITDA forecasts. Do the short sellers really think this stock is overvalued?
The other part of the Ford story can be found on the balance sheet. The company is now minting massive sums of cash, which should enable Ford to start paying dividends in 2012 and eventually push its cash level north of $40 billion by the end of 2013 (from a recent $21 billion).
============
Action to Take --> Look for many of these themes to be covered during Ford's annual meeting with analysts, on June 7. By then, Ford should have a clear read on potential market share gains from Japanese rivals and on the impact of the recent pullback in commodity prices on its bottom line. Management is also expected to discuss a possible boost to an investment-grade rating for its bonds by the end of this year or early 2012. This should set the stage for even lower borrowing costs and reduced interest expense at the company's credit division.
Taken together, these tailwinds could help Ford's shares resume their interrupted upward trajectory. If that happens, then look for short sellers to cover their positions, creating even more buying pressure -- and that $25 target may become a reality.
-- David Sterman
America's greatest turnaround story looks like it's stuck in the mud. Shares of Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) raced from under $2 in early 2009 to above $18 in early 2011. A move toward the $25 mark started to become the next target for many analysts, myself included. Instead, shares have drifted steadily lower and now trade below $15. Even at that lower level, shares are heavily shorted. Many analysts clearly expect the stock to fall even further, but their logic looks flawed.
==============
A commodity drag
After losing a cumulative $7.5 billion in 2008 and 2009, Ford earned a hefty $6.7 billion ($1.91 a share) in 2010. By late last year, analysts started to wonder if $2.50 a share or even $3 a share in profits might be possible by 2012. Now a series of headwinds have altered that view. Short sellers increasingly aver that Ford's profits may actually drop in 2011 and 2012. They note that commodity prices are rising even faster than Ford can increase prices.
What these bears are missing is the volume part of the equation. Ford looks set to sell even more cars in 2011, leveraging incremental gains off of its massive base of fixed costs. (Industrywide, Merrill Lynch expects U.S. vehicle sales to rise 21% in 2011 to 14 million .) In fact, the gains from increased car sales are likely to be somewhat larger than the drag associated with pricier raw materials.
Let's do the math.
A typical vehicle contains about $3,500 in raw materials. Steel accounts for roughly 30% of that and rubber another 20%. Yet the recent spike in commodities figured to take the total raw material cost up by $800 to about $4,300. But in the past two weeks, commodity prices have cooled a bit, and the raw-material cost disparity now looks to be closer to $400.
That's a key figure for Ford. The company has recently hiked prices on many models by an average of $200, and projections of higher sales volume this year, which generate robust incremental profits on each extra feature sold, could more than offset the $400 drag. Add in the fact that incentives are quickly dropping (they were 19% lower in the first quarter compared with a year ago), and the average selling price is actually more than $1,000 higher for a comparable vehicle.
===============
The Japan factor
It's also become increasingly clear that Japan's woes related to the recent earthquake and tsunami will have a clear, positive effect on the U.S. auto industry. The amount of Japanese vehicles sitting on dealer lots is shrinking fast, with expectations that some models will run out by June. By then, Ford, GM (NYSE: GM) and other non-Japanese manufacturers should be able to pick up some market share throughout the summer, perhaps setting the stage for third-quarter results that are noticeably stronger than current forecasts suggest. A reduced supply of Japanese vehicles carries another implication, as Merrill Lynch's analysts note: "Although this is a near-term pressure on volume, it is also a positive for pricing."
=============
Too conservative?
Unlike short sellers, which have been anticipating an outright drop in profits this year, most Wall Street analysts believe Ford's profits will be flat in 2011 and 2012, as rising sales volume roughly offsets spiking commodities. But as noted earlier, commodities are pulling back a bit and sales volume could prove to be impressive if the company can take market share from the Japanese auto makers.
This is why I think the profit view is too conservative. I increasingly suspect Ford can earn closer to $2.25 a share this year, roughly 15% above 2010 levels. First-quarter profits topped estimates by 24% and Goldman Sachs looks for continued outperformance: "We expect 2Q and 3Q earnings to be positive catalysts illustrating the company's ability to drive earnings growth even in a rising commodity price environment." If Ford could earn $2.25 a share this year, then shares would trade for less than seven times that view.
Yet a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio may not even be the best gauge, since Ford's earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) is far higher than its earnings per share (EPS), thanks to a high degree of amortization and interest expense. Ford shares trade for less than four times consensus 2011 EBITDA forecasts. Do the short sellers really think this stock is overvalued?
The other part of the Ford story can be found on the balance sheet. The company is now minting massive sums of cash, which should enable Ford to start paying dividends in 2012 and eventually push its cash level north of $40 billion by the end of 2013 (from a recent $21 billion).
============
Action to Take --> Look for many of these themes to be covered during Ford's annual meeting with analysts, on June 7. By then, Ford should have a clear read on potential market share gains from Japanese rivals and on the impact of the recent pullback in commodity prices on its bottom line. Management is also expected to discuss a possible boost to an investment-grade rating for its bonds by the end of this year or early 2012. This should set the stage for even lower borrowing costs and reduced interest expense at the company's credit division.
Taken together, these tailwinds could help Ford's shares resume their interrupted upward trajectory. If that happens, then look for short sellers to cover their positions, creating even more buying pressure -- and that $25 target may become a reality.
-- David Sterman
I believe it's time to start a new position in F. I sold out at 17 befor this dip. I think it was time to sell it was alll bought in the 4 area.
Wanna make REAL money in the stock market?
Wanna make REAL money in the stock market?
Get elected..good read
Interesting analogy to prostitutes and pimps
Well, There's Your Problem Right There ... Insider Trading Rules Don?t Apply To Congress
I've repeatedly pointed out that Wall Street executives are incentivized to lie, cheat and steal. So - of course - they will continue to lie, cheat and steal.
I've repeatedly noted that Wall Street owns the politicians:
Lobbyists from the financial industry have paid hundreds of millions to Congress and the Obama administration. They have bought virtually all of the key congress members and senators on committees overseeing finances and banking. The Congress people who receive the most money from lobbyists are the most opposed to regulation. See this, this, this, this, this, this, and this.
Obama received more donations from Goldman Sachs and the rest of the financial industry than almost anyone else
Summers and the rest of Obama's economic team have made many millions - even in the first few months of being appointed, or right beforehand - from the financial industry
Two powerful congressmen said that banks run Congress
Two leading IMF officials, the former Vice President of the Dallas Federal Reserve, and the the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City have all said that the United States is controlled by an oligarchy
HERE IS ANALOGY
The chairman of the Department of Economics at George Mason University (Donald J. Boudreaux) says that it is inaccurate to call politicians prostitutes. Specifically, he says that they are more correct to call them "pimps", since they are pimping out the American people to the financial giants:
Real whores, after all, personally supply the services their customers seek. Prostitutes do not steal; their customers pay them voluntarily. And their customers pay only with money belonging to these customers.
In contrast, members of Congress routinely truck and barter with other people's property...
Members of Congress are less like whores than they are like pimps for persons unwillingly conscripted to perform unpleasant services.
Rest of article at site..http://www.zerohedge.com/article/we...s-are-incentivized-bail-out-wall-street-and-w
Wanna make REAL money in the stock market?
Get elected..good read
Interesting analogy to prostitutes and pimps
Well, There's Your Problem Right There ... Insider Trading Rules Don?t Apply To Congress
I've repeatedly pointed out that Wall Street executives are incentivized to lie, cheat and steal. So - of course - they will continue to lie, cheat and steal.
I've repeatedly noted that Wall Street owns the politicians:
Lobbyists from the financial industry have paid hundreds of millions to Congress and the Obama administration. They have bought virtually all of the key congress members and senators on committees overseeing finances and banking. The Congress people who receive the most money from lobbyists are the most opposed to regulation. See this, this, this, this, this, this, and this.
Obama received more donations from Goldman Sachs and the rest of the financial industry than almost anyone else
Summers and the rest of Obama's economic team have made many millions - even in the first few months of being appointed, or right beforehand - from the financial industry
Two powerful congressmen said that banks run Congress
Two leading IMF officials, the former Vice President of the Dallas Federal Reserve, and the the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City have all said that the United States is controlled by an oligarchy
HERE IS ANALOGY
The chairman of the Department of Economics at George Mason University (Donald J. Boudreaux) says that it is inaccurate to call politicians prostitutes. Specifically, he says that they are more correct to call them "pimps", since they are pimping out the American people to the financial giants:
Real whores, after all, personally supply the services their customers seek. Prostitutes do not steal; their customers pay them voluntarily. And their customers pay only with money belonging to these customers.
In contrast, members of Congress routinely truck and barter with other people's property...
Members of Congress are less like whores than they are like pimps for persons unwillingly conscripted to perform unpleasant services.
Rest of article at site..http://www.zerohedge.com/article/we...s-are-incentivized-bail-out-wall-street-and-w
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ACTC conference call.
We will be hearing about the trials and progress in October. They are starting very soon. Tomorrow they are choosing their first two patients.
They are getting boring with technical stuff now so I'm turning this off and going to mow the lawn.
opcorn2
We will be hearing about the trials and progress in October. They are starting very soon. Tomorrow they are choosing their first two patients.
They are getting boring with technical stuff now so I'm turning this off and going to mow the lawn.
opcorn2 
They are getting boring with technical stuff now so I'm turning this off and going to mow the lawn.
i guess the public did not like what was said in conference call...:sadwave:
I highly doubt many heard it. Sell on news? October too long to wait? Who knows.
company didnt even put out a marketwire release yet... really doesn't matter what the stock does in the short-term.. If it goes down, I'm just buying more and more
