SUPER BOWL 2009 - Pittsburgh Vs Arizona - KOD
- Thread starter THE KOD
- Start date
.............................................................
right there with ya bro, standing on Victory Lane
and that is where I lives
KOD
D's been the key in recent Super Bowlsby Alex Marvez
Alex Marvez is a Senior NFL Writer for FOXSports.com. He's covered the NFL for 14 seasons as a beat writer and is president emeritus of the Pro Football Writers of America.
Updated: January 31, 2009, 12:00 PM EST 236 comments TAMPA - To some, the expression has become clich?.
To San Diego Chargers general manager A.J. Smith, it reflects his core belief on how to build a Super Bowl-winning team.
"Defenses win championships," Smith said Thursday in a telephone interview.
Arizona quarterback Kurt Warner is well aware.
He was starting for St. Louis in 1999 the last time the NFL's top-ranked offense from the regular season parlayed such success into a Super Bowl victory. But if linebacker Mike Jones hadn't made a goal-line stop of Tennessee wide receiver Kevin Dyson on the final snap, the Titans might have won Super Bowl XXXIV instead of the Rams.
The play also became a harbinger of things to come.
Almost every other Super Bowl champion this decade has fielded a suffocating defense or had its unit play like one in the Super Bowl. That includes the 2001 New England Patriots in their 20-17 upset victory over the Warner-led Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI. New England's defense stole the spotlight from an offense nicknamed the Greatest Show on Turf.
"I think about the game we lost more than any game I've ever played in," Warner said earlier this week. "We were expected to win, so when you don't, you feel like you miss an opportunity to make history. I'm going to do my best to make sure I don't have to think about this one too much."
It will require a Herculean effort.
Of the title winners this decade, only the 2000 Baltimore Ravens and 2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers fielded defenses that can be considered at least as stout as the one Pittsburgh brings into Sunday's game at Raymond James Stadium. The opposing teams in those two contests (the New York Giants and Oakland) entered with offenses even hotter than Arizona's, having both scored 41 points in their respective conference championship games. Those same units were subsequently dismantled by the Ravens and Bucs.
With a victory over Arizona, this version of Pittsburgh's defense will earn a spot alongside the franchise's vaunted Steel Curtain of the 1970s. The Steelers finished the regular season ranked atop the NFL in most major statistical categories, most notably fewest points (13.9 per-game average) and yards (237.2) allowed. Pittsburgh maintained that momentum in two playoff victories, including a second-round rout of Smith's visiting Chargers.
Steelers defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau designs to try to slow a Cardinals offense that has generated 10 touchdowns in three postseason contests.
"You must put pressure on the quarterback," Smith said. "We all know you can't let (Warner) stand around like it's a flag-football game. But if you don't get there (with pressure), what do you do? It's one of those fascinating things about this business.
"When it comes to winning championships, players are always first in importance followed by head coaches and coordinators. But then there are other things in the formula ? injuries, who's going to make the big mistake? Usually at the end of the day, the Super Bowl winner finds a way to work through those things."
Pittsburgh's defense has been so dominant that the opposing unit is getting short shrift. But Arizona's No. 19 regular-season ranking doesn't reflect how well the Cardinals have performed in the playoffs. Arizona has forced 12 turnovers ? including one returned for a touchdown by safety Antrel Rolle in a game-changing play against Atlanta ? and shored up a secondary that allowed an NFL-high 36 touchdown passes in 2008.
"Guys earlier in the season were trying to make plays and a lot of times got out of their responsibilities," Cardinals coach Ken Whisenhunt said Friday. "What we realized was that if I do my job the right way, we have good enough players that those plays will come to us."
Such a postseason turnaround invokes memories of the 2006 Indianapolis Colts. That unit finished the regular season ranked No. 23 but began gelling during its playoff run.
Like the Cardinals, the Colts defense was treated like an afterthought compared to Chicago's entering Super Bowl XLI. But while Indianapolis quarterback Peyton Manning was named the game's Most Valuable Player, it was the stifling of Chicago's offense that led the Colts to a 29-17 victory. Colts cornerback Kelvin Hayden sealed the win with a fourth-quarter interception return for a touchdown, marking the fourth time in a seven-Super Bowl span that a defense put points on the scoreboard.
The 2007 New York Giants (Super Bowl XLII), 2005 Steelers (Super Bowl XL) and 2004 Patriots (Super Bowl XXXIX) also won their titles largely because of staunch defensive efforts.
"We just want to go out and match [Pittsburgh's] intensity," Cardinals defensive tackle Darnell Dockett said. "Anytime we have an opportunity to go against one of the top-ranked defenses, it's a chance to show people our defense isn't too bad either."
Recent history shows it will need to play even better if Arizona has a shot at pulling off a Super Bowl upset
............................................................
:00hour :0corn :00hour
Alex Marvez is a Senior NFL Writer for FOXSports.com. He's covered the NFL for 14 seasons as a beat writer and is president emeritus of the Pro Football Writers of America.
Updated: January 31, 2009, 12:00 PM EST 236 comments TAMPA - To some, the expression has become clich?.
To San Diego Chargers general manager A.J. Smith, it reflects his core belief on how to build a Super Bowl-winning team.
"Defenses win championships," Smith said Thursday in a telephone interview.
Arizona quarterback Kurt Warner is well aware.
He was starting for St. Louis in 1999 the last time the NFL's top-ranked offense from the regular season parlayed such success into a Super Bowl victory. But if linebacker Mike Jones hadn't made a goal-line stop of Tennessee wide receiver Kevin Dyson on the final snap, the Titans might have won Super Bowl XXXIV instead of the Rams.
The play also became a harbinger of things to come.
Almost every other Super Bowl champion this decade has fielded a suffocating defense or had its unit play like one in the Super Bowl. That includes the 2001 New England Patriots in their 20-17 upset victory over the Warner-led Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI. New England's defense stole the spotlight from an offense nicknamed the Greatest Show on Turf.
"I think about the game we lost more than any game I've ever played in," Warner said earlier this week. "We were expected to win, so when you don't, you feel like you miss an opportunity to make history. I'm going to do my best to make sure I don't have to think about this one too much."
It will require a Herculean effort.
Of the title winners this decade, only the 2000 Baltimore Ravens and 2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers fielded defenses that can be considered at least as stout as the one Pittsburgh brings into Sunday's game at Raymond James Stadium. The opposing teams in those two contests (the New York Giants and Oakland) entered with offenses even hotter than Arizona's, having both scored 41 points in their respective conference championship games. Those same units were subsequently dismantled by the Ravens and Bucs.
With a victory over Arizona, this version of Pittsburgh's defense will earn a spot alongside the franchise's vaunted Steel Curtain of the 1970s. The Steelers finished the regular season ranked atop the NFL in most major statistical categories, most notably fewest points (13.9 per-game average) and yards (237.2) allowed. Pittsburgh maintained that momentum in two playoff victories, including a second-round rout of Smith's visiting Chargers.
Steelers defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau designs to try to slow a Cardinals offense that has generated 10 touchdowns in three postseason contests.
"You must put pressure on the quarterback," Smith said. "We all know you can't let (Warner) stand around like it's a flag-football game. But if you don't get there (with pressure), what do you do? It's one of those fascinating things about this business.
"When it comes to winning championships, players are always first in importance followed by head coaches and coordinators. But then there are other things in the formula ? injuries, who's going to make the big mistake? Usually at the end of the day, the Super Bowl winner finds a way to work through those things."
Pittsburgh's defense has been so dominant that the opposing unit is getting short shrift. But Arizona's No. 19 regular-season ranking doesn't reflect how well the Cardinals have performed in the playoffs. Arizona has forced 12 turnovers ? including one returned for a touchdown by safety Antrel Rolle in a game-changing play against Atlanta ? and shored up a secondary that allowed an NFL-high 36 touchdown passes in 2008.
"Guys earlier in the season were trying to make plays and a lot of times got out of their responsibilities," Cardinals coach Ken Whisenhunt said Friday. "What we realized was that if I do my job the right way, we have good enough players that those plays will come to us."
Such a postseason turnaround invokes memories of the 2006 Indianapolis Colts. That unit finished the regular season ranked No. 23 but began gelling during its playoff run.
Like the Cardinals, the Colts defense was treated like an afterthought compared to Chicago's entering Super Bowl XLI. But while Indianapolis quarterback Peyton Manning was named the game's Most Valuable Player, it was the stifling of Chicago's offense that led the Colts to a 29-17 victory. Colts cornerback Kelvin Hayden sealed the win with a fourth-quarter interception return for a touchdown, marking the fourth time in a seven-Super Bowl span that a defense put points on the scoreboard.
The 2007 New York Giants (Super Bowl XLII), 2005 Steelers (Super Bowl XL) and 2004 Patriots (Super Bowl XXXIX) also won their titles largely because of staunch defensive efforts.
"We just want to go out and match [Pittsburgh's] intensity," Cardinals defensive tackle Darnell Dockett said. "Anytime we have an opportunity to go against one of the top-ranked defenses, it's a chance to show people our defense isn't too bad either."
Recent history shows it will need to play even better if Arizona has a shot at pulling off a Super Bowl upset
............................................................
:00hour :0corn :00hour
Kerry Collins, Giants, Super Bowl XXXV
Like a few others on this list, Collins had the great misfortune of playing quarterback against a team that reached the big game on the strength of its imposing defense. With Super Bowl MVP Ray Lewis leading the charge, the Ravens held Collins to 15 of 39 passing and intercepted him four times, returning one of those for a touchdown. The Giants managed just one first down on their final four possessions, and left with a 34-7 loss.
.............................................................
:scared
:00hour :0corn :00hour
Like a few others on this list, Collins had the great misfortune of playing quarterback against a team that reached the big game on the strength of its imposing defense. With Super Bowl MVP Ray Lewis leading the charge, the Ravens held Collins to 15 of 39 passing and intercepted him four times, returning one of those for a touchdown. The Giants managed just one first down on their final four possessions, and left with a 34-7 loss.
.............................................................
:scared
:00hour :0corn :00hour
GL Scott - I believe Pitt is the right side, I'm on them as well - I have a very nice SB history - let's cash this one...gl as always!
ACCUSCORE ANALYSIS: Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Arizona Cardinals
By Stephen Oh
4:49 p.m. January 29, 2009
AccuScore runs 10,000 computer simulations of NFL games, one play at a time, to project likely outcomes. Here is its assessment of Sunday's Super Bowl.
The Steelers won 68.9 percent of AccuScore's simulations by an average score of 27-20. The simulations have pinpointed the key reasons Pittsburgh is favored and what it will take for Arizona to pull off the upset.
KEYS FOR PITTSBURGH
PRESSURE LIMITS 'WARNER-TO-FITZGERALD'
The Eagles defense is good, and showed in the second half of the NFC Championship game that you can blitz Kurt Warner and largely shut down the Cardinals offense. But the Steelers defense is much better. The Eagles allowed at least 23 points seven times this season (regular season and playoffs) and allowed 30-plus three times. The Steelers gave up 24 or more points just three times (24 to Indianapolis, 30 to Tennessee and 24 to the Chargers in the playoffs).
Unlike Philly, the Steelers defense can pressure Warner while also stopping the run. The Steelers will learn from Philadelphia's mistakes. They will force Warner to dump more passes to his running backs and tight ends to avoid taking vicious hits.
Cardinals running backs Edgerrin James and Tim Hightower are averaging a combined four receptions per simulation for just six yards per reception. The two had just two catches against Philadelphia as Warner had enough time (in the first half) to get the ball to Larry Fitzgerald.
Fitzgerald caught 43 percent of Arizona's completed passes against Philadelphia. The simulations show the Steelers are holding him to 29 percent.
The table below shows that if the offensive line can protect Warner and if Fitzgerald has more than 40 percent of the team's receptions (a 37 percent likelihood) then the Cardinals' chances jump from 31 percent to 44 percent.
Larry Fitzgerald ; %Chance ; %Rec. ; Rec. ; Yds. ; TD ; Win %
Baseline ; ? ; 29% ; 6.9 ; 97.9 ; 0.8 ; 31%
Warner given time ; 37% ; 42% ; 9.6 ; 136.9 ; 1.1 ; 44%
ROETHLISBERGER CAN BE PROLIFIC
Kurt Warner has the reputation as the more prolific passer, but Ben Roethlisberger is actually averaging better numbers in simulations.
QB comparison ; Cmp.; Att.; Pct.; Yds.; TD; Int.; Rat.
Roethlisberger ; 19.8; 31.4; 63.1; 268 ; 2.2; 1.1; 98.3
Warner ; 23.4; 39.4; 59.4; 257 ; 1.6; 1.3; 78.3
While Warner had a much better season statistically, Roethlisberger faced a far more difficult schedule. Rattling off the Steelers' opponents this season can intimidate a QB (Baltimore twice, Philadelphia, Dallas, Tennessee, the Giants).
List some of Warner's opponents and you get the likes of the 32nd-ranked Seattle Seahawks twice, the 29th-ranked Jets pass defense and the 25th-ranked Dolphins defense.
Roethlisberger's opposing pass defenses had an average ranking of 11.4 vs. 17.3 for Warner's. For comparison's sake the 11th-ranked pass defense was New England, the 17th-ranked was the Houston Texans. If you had a fantasy QB, would you rather have him face New England or Houston?
Roethlisberger played 13 of 16 games against teams ranked in the Top 16 against the pass, Warner only seven.
Roethlisberger's average passer rating was higher against the bottom half of the league than Warner's. While Warner had the higher rating against Top 16 opponents, he did not have to play as many games against Top 10 defenses (four) as Roethlisberger (eight).
; ;; Vs. Top 16 ;; Vs. Bottom 16
QB comparison ; Avg.Opp.Rank;; G ; Rat; ;; G ; Rat.
Roethlisberger ; 11.4 ;; 13 ; 72.3 ;; 3 ; 114.7
Warner ; 17.3 ;; 7 ; 82.9 ;; 9 ; 107.7
Given that Roethlisberger will be facing the 22nd-ranked Cardinals pass defense and Warner will be up against the top-ranked Steelers defense, it should not be surprising to see Roethlisberger coming out with better stats in simulations.
KEYS FOR ARIZONA
It does not take a supercomputer simulation to tell you that if Roethlisberger has six turnovers like Carolina's Jake Delhomme, the Cardinals have a great chance of winning. Instead of focusing on highly unlikely scenarios, AccuScore has pinpointed three realistically achievable statistical measures that, if all are achieved, would make Arizona the favorite to win.
CAN AZ. CONTINUE ITS INT'S? The Cardinals had 13 interceptions in 16 regular season games. They have nearly tripled that rate with seven in three playoff games. Simulations show how interceptions would affect the outcome of the game.
Roethlisberger INTs; %Chance; Az. win%
None ; 34.4%; 16.9%
1 or more ; 65.6%; 38.6%
2 or more ; 30.3%; 50.8%
It's unlikely that Roethlisberger will throw multiple interceptions, but the first step for Arizona's upset is to intercept Roethlisberger at least once.
CAN JAMES RUN FOR 3.9 YARDS A CARRY?
In three playoff games ?The Edge? he has run well (68 yards per game, 3.9 yards per carry). But the Steelers' run defense is one of the best, and James is forecasted for only 44 yards on 14 carries (3.1 ypc). In simulations in which James averages 4.6 ypc, as he has twice in the playoffs, the Cardinals actually win 50.7 percent of the time. However, there is just a 31 percent chance that James can run this effectively against the Steelers.
Edgerrin James ; %Chance; Az. win%
Baseline (3.1 ypc); ? ; 31.1%
James 3.9 ypc ; 58.0% ; 41.6%
James 4.6 ypc ; 31.2% ; 50.7%
More realistically, if James can average at least 3.9 ypc (his overall playoff and regular season average) against the great Steelers run defense, the Cardinals have a considerably better shot (win 41.6 percent). If James averages 3.9 ypc and Roethlisberger has at least one interception the Cardinals have a 49 percent chance of winning.
CAN WARNER AVOID SACKS?
The Steelers recorded 51 sacks this season (over three per game). If Warner is miraculously not sacked, the Cardinals nearly pull even with the Steelers with a 48 percent chance of winning. More realistically, the Cardinals need to hold the Steelers defense to two sacks or fewer to minimize the chance of a costly injury or turnover.
Kurt Warner sacks; %Chance; Az. win%
None ; 8.2% ; 48.4%
Two or fewer ; 53.7% ; 38.2%
Three or more ; 46.3% ; 23.0%
With reasonable pass protection, at last one Arizona interception and James having a good rushing performance, the Cardinals actually become the solid 58.8 percent favorite, winning by an average score of 26-23. :scared
...................................................
I love reading the computer stuff.
Something tells me Kurt Warner gets cold cocked
and dont remember half of the Super Bowl while being xrayed.
By Stephen Oh
4:49 p.m. January 29, 2009
AccuScore runs 10,000 computer simulations of NFL games, one play at a time, to project likely outcomes. Here is its assessment of Sunday's Super Bowl.
The Steelers won 68.9 percent of AccuScore's simulations by an average score of 27-20. The simulations have pinpointed the key reasons Pittsburgh is favored and what it will take for Arizona to pull off the upset.
KEYS FOR PITTSBURGH
PRESSURE LIMITS 'WARNER-TO-FITZGERALD'
The Eagles defense is good, and showed in the second half of the NFC Championship game that you can blitz Kurt Warner and largely shut down the Cardinals offense. But the Steelers defense is much better. The Eagles allowed at least 23 points seven times this season (regular season and playoffs) and allowed 30-plus three times. The Steelers gave up 24 or more points just three times (24 to Indianapolis, 30 to Tennessee and 24 to the Chargers in the playoffs).
Unlike Philly, the Steelers defense can pressure Warner while also stopping the run. The Steelers will learn from Philadelphia's mistakes. They will force Warner to dump more passes to his running backs and tight ends to avoid taking vicious hits.
Cardinals running backs Edgerrin James and Tim Hightower are averaging a combined four receptions per simulation for just six yards per reception. The two had just two catches against Philadelphia as Warner had enough time (in the first half) to get the ball to Larry Fitzgerald.
Fitzgerald caught 43 percent of Arizona's completed passes against Philadelphia. The simulations show the Steelers are holding him to 29 percent.
The table below shows that if the offensive line can protect Warner and if Fitzgerald has more than 40 percent of the team's receptions (a 37 percent likelihood) then the Cardinals' chances jump from 31 percent to 44 percent.
Larry Fitzgerald ; %Chance ; %Rec. ; Rec. ; Yds. ; TD ; Win %
Baseline ; ? ; 29% ; 6.9 ; 97.9 ; 0.8 ; 31%
Warner given time ; 37% ; 42% ; 9.6 ; 136.9 ; 1.1 ; 44%
ROETHLISBERGER CAN BE PROLIFIC
Kurt Warner has the reputation as the more prolific passer, but Ben Roethlisberger is actually averaging better numbers in simulations.
QB comparison ; Cmp.; Att.; Pct.; Yds.; TD; Int.; Rat.
Roethlisberger ; 19.8; 31.4; 63.1; 268 ; 2.2; 1.1; 98.3
Warner ; 23.4; 39.4; 59.4; 257 ; 1.6; 1.3; 78.3
While Warner had a much better season statistically, Roethlisberger faced a far more difficult schedule. Rattling off the Steelers' opponents this season can intimidate a QB (Baltimore twice, Philadelphia, Dallas, Tennessee, the Giants).
List some of Warner's opponents and you get the likes of the 32nd-ranked Seattle Seahawks twice, the 29th-ranked Jets pass defense and the 25th-ranked Dolphins defense.
Roethlisberger's opposing pass defenses had an average ranking of 11.4 vs. 17.3 for Warner's. For comparison's sake the 11th-ranked pass defense was New England, the 17th-ranked was the Houston Texans. If you had a fantasy QB, would you rather have him face New England or Houston?
Roethlisberger played 13 of 16 games against teams ranked in the Top 16 against the pass, Warner only seven.
Roethlisberger's average passer rating was higher against the bottom half of the league than Warner's. While Warner had the higher rating against Top 16 opponents, he did not have to play as many games against Top 10 defenses (four) as Roethlisberger (eight).
; ;; Vs. Top 16 ;; Vs. Bottom 16
QB comparison ; Avg.Opp.Rank;; G ; Rat; ;; G ; Rat.
Roethlisberger ; 11.4 ;; 13 ; 72.3 ;; 3 ; 114.7
Warner ; 17.3 ;; 7 ; 82.9 ;; 9 ; 107.7
Given that Roethlisberger will be facing the 22nd-ranked Cardinals pass defense and Warner will be up against the top-ranked Steelers defense, it should not be surprising to see Roethlisberger coming out with better stats in simulations.
KEYS FOR ARIZONA
It does not take a supercomputer simulation to tell you that if Roethlisberger has six turnovers like Carolina's Jake Delhomme, the Cardinals have a great chance of winning. Instead of focusing on highly unlikely scenarios, AccuScore has pinpointed three realistically achievable statistical measures that, if all are achieved, would make Arizona the favorite to win.
CAN AZ. CONTINUE ITS INT'S? The Cardinals had 13 interceptions in 16 regular season games. They have nearly tripled that rate with seven in three playoff games. Simulations show how interceptions would affect the outcome of the game.
Roethlisberger INTs; %Chance; Az. win%
None ; 34.4%; 16.9%
1 or more ; 65.6%; 38.6%
2 or more ; 30.3%; 50.8%
It's unlikely that Roethlisberger will throw multiple interceptions, but the first step for Arizona's upset is to intercept Roethlisberger at least once.
CAN JAMES RUN FOR 3.9 YARDS A CARRY?
In three playoff games ?The Edge? he has run well (68 yards per game, 3.9 yards per carry). But the Steelers' run defense is one of the best, and James is forecasted for only 44 yards on 14 carries (3.1 ypc). In simulations in which James averages 4.6 ypc, as he has twice in the playoffs, the Cardinals actually win 50.7 percent of the time. However, there is just a 31 percent chance that James can run this effectively against the Steelers.
Edgerrin James ; %Chance; Az. win%
Baseline (3.1 ypc); ? ; 31.1%
James 3.9 ypc ; 58.0% ; 41.6%
James 4.6 ypc ; 31.2% ; 50.7%
More realistically, if James can average at least 3.9 ypc (his overall playoff and regular season average) against the great Steelers run defense, the Cardinals have a considerably better shot (win 41.6 percent). If James averages 3.9 ypc and Roethlisberger has at least one interception the Cardinals have a 49 percent chance of winning.
CAN WARNER AVOID SACKS?
The Steelers recorded 51 sacks this season (over three per game). If Warner is miraculously not sacked, the Cardinals nearly pull even with the Steelers with a 48 percent chance of winning. More realistically, the Cardinals need to hold the Steelers defense to two sacks or fewer to minimize the chance of a costly injury or turnover.
Kurt Warner sacks; %Chance; Az. win%
None ; 8.2% ; 48.4%
Two or fewer ; 53.7% ; 38.2%
Three or more ; 46.3% ; 23.0%
With reasonable pass protection, at last one Arizona interception and James having a good rushing performance, the Cardinals actually become the solid 58.8 percent favorite, winning by an average score of 26-23. :scared
...................................................
I love reading the computer stuff.
Something tells me Kurt Warner gets cold cocked
and dont remember half of the Super Bowl while being xrayed.
Game Summary
Well I guess I dont have to say that I have been in a depression over that fawking game and its outcome.
When Pittsburgh kicked the field goal instead of going for the touchdown I knew it was trouble.
Then when they got the personal foul on roughing the holder, but still failed to get it in the end zone, it got worse.
Then when they dropped into the prevent defense and Fitz caught that ball over the middle untouched. How stupid can you be .
Pittsburgh did not deserve to win that game. I will hold their poor play against them for years I think.
a kick directly to the nads
I could of bought the points down, I could of played the moneyline, coulda woulda fawking shoulda ! fawking #($#_@ #))@ mothers of )W)R# sd0w40e0 ,,,, suck#))$*(@( aw $)$)))#@
KOD
Well I guess I dont have to say that I have been in a depression over that fawking game and its outcome.
When Pittsburgh kicked the field goal instead of going for the touchdown I knew it was trouble.
Then when they got the personal foul on roughing the holder, but still failed to get it in the end zone, it got worse.
Then when they dropped into the prevent defense and Fitz caught that ball over the middle untouched. How stupid can you be .
Pittsburgh did not deserve to win that game. I will hold their poor play against them for years I think.
a kick directly to the nads
I could of bought the points down, I could of played the moneyline, coulda woulda fawking shoulda ! fawking #($#_@ #))@ mothers of )W)R# sd0w40e0 ,,,, suck#))$*(@( aw $)$)))#@
KOD
