System play for Saturday. . .

[Nickelback]

System plays now 7-1 with 5 dogs getting 7.5+ points winning outright.

I expect to get a lot of heat for this one, but here's what I have:



Eastern Michigan +10.5 over Central Michigan

The main reason for this play is the way Central plays on the road. . . its basically night and day with this team as they look like one of the best in the MAC at home. I think we're getting a few extra points for Central's close loss to Marshall. Unfortunately for Central, the game was at home. . . play the game on the road and I believe they would have gotten blown away. . .

On the other side, Eastern must be looking forward to a home game after two horrific performances on the road. Take a look and I think you'll agree that this team plays much better on their own home turf.

Granted, Central doesn't have a long plane trip or bus trip for that matter to Eastern, but I think Eastern will come alive and keep this one close. While this play is solid IMO, it would be even stronger if Eastern was playing better ball leading to this game. For this reason, we're taking a chance that Eastern will bounce back at home and that Central is not as good as they looked last weekend against Marshall.

I'm not as confident with this play as I was last weekend with Army, but I do feel its good enough to put my record on the line. Eastern could surprise everyone (including me) and actually win this game IMO. . . but no chance I'll play the ML. . . +10.5 is good enough for me.

Doubt there will be any other system plays for this week, but I'll add some opinion plays before Saturday.

GL all!

 

[JEFF]

GL Nickelback and keep up the great work

 

[Joe De]

I'm on it..at 11..I show no more then 3-4 to be given up by C. Michigan...at best...... you i think they win S/U..another play is Ball St. +4..home dog...stats shows that they should get 3...what a deal...good luck

 

[gardenweasel]

joe

joe

hope you didn`t pull the trigger....w mich up to -6 at oly....also,md-14 and auburn-4.5....some pretty big moves

 

[Nickelback]

Looks like we have a few cappers around here on the other side of the system play. . . fletcher and hellah at the top of the list. . . never a good idea to fade these guys on a regular basis, but we gotta trust the system here!

Opinion plays:

Michigan State +15.5 over Michigan. . . how is Michigan gonna score? There's too much being made about these injuries to MSU

Georgia PK over Florida. . . will wait for this line to continue to fall. . . Vegas set this line right but it will be hard for many to lay off Florida getting points at home.

Arizona State +250 ML. . . excellent value here. . . could go either way so we'll roll the dice and take our chances.

Texas laying 3.5 over Nebraska. . . as I said at the beginning of the year, Nebraska is the most overrated team in the country followed by Florida State. . . I feel there will be excellent value against the Huskers the rest of the year as Vegas will not catch up.

Nevada laying 7 over SMU. . . think Nevada is much much better than SMU


Once again, the real play is still the system play. . . these are merely opinion plays that I will have a small wager on.

 

[gardenweasel]

nickel

nickel

be very careful with mich st...the program is in total chaos.....the qb allegedly caught selling coke.....def end also suspended.....they have lost last 2 at home 28-7 to minny and 42-24 to wisky....can`t run the ball....can`t defend the run....and remember last year`s "clock" game that mich st pulled out with no time on the clock....michigan has been pointing to this game all year...i think michigan runs it up if they get the chance....mich st is a mess...and michigan coming off their worst home loss in something like 30 years....i jumped this at 14 and feel good about it....g.l. whatever you do.

 

[taoist]

...another play is Ball St. +4..home dog...stats shows that they should get 3...what a deal...good luck

...my strongest play of the week. (but it's on the other side.)

...w. mich covers by 10 or more.

 

[gardenweasel]

also agree with taoist

also agree with taoist

love w mich(got it originally at 3;bought down from 3.5)....that line is now up to 6.....g.l.

 

[mw]

I'm not really sure what the system is, but E Mich looks good to me. My numbers say E Mich +8, without factoring in the bye week and the letdown for Central off the close loss to Marshall.

W Mich -- stats show W Mich -11, before taking situational factors into account. Situation favors Western, but concerned about coach's decision to play young talent in preparation for next year.

Taoist, do you still like Western at -5.5?

 

[Nickelback]

My system is playing home dogs getting +7.5 or more. . . then I look into other factors such as how the dog plays at home, how the road favorite plays on the road, recent performances (although very minimal), injuries, etc.


My premise is that home dogs are the most unrespected side in all of handicapping. . . if you don't believe me, take a look at public consensus sites such as wagerline and see just how many home dogs the public are on. . .

 

[pacerfan]

My premise is that home dogs are the most unrespected side in all of handicapping. . . if you don't believe me, take a look at public consensus sites such as wagerline and see just how many home dogs the public are on. . .

How are home dogs unrespected if you say the public is all over them....:shrug:

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Pacerfan, I believe he is saying that if you look at the consensus sites you will see that not a lot of people are on home dogs.

 

[djv]

There is another strong system play this week on N Dame. I spelled it out in another post. It goes something like this. Play a team that was a dog of 7 or more last week and won SU. Is now home and Fav of 7 or more. It's like 72/73% for last 6 years. I think it's 3 and 0 this year. So it's ahead of the %. Believe if you take it out over 10 years it's still like 70%. Im not telling anyone to make the play just giving the info.

 

[Nickelback]

Thanks for answering that johnny. . . that's exactly what I meant.

 

[boilermaker]

Boilermaker's Bets

Boilermaker's Bets

Week 1-0
Season 82-76-3
These are my plays for Saturday will post numbers when I get them from local satuday morning.

West Virginia-
Ohio State-
Ohio+
Iowa State-
Bowling Green-
Tulsa+
Nevada-
South Carolina+
Texas-
Oregon-
Washington-
Arizona State+
Central Florida-
Georgia-
San Jose State+

GLTA

 

[boilermaker]

Nickelback sorry, thought I pressed new thread. Damn head cold got me all screwed up. Again Sorry , boilermaker

Good Luck this weekend.

 

[ndnfan]

Nickelback....first of all, I wanna say nice job on those system plays so far. Seems to be working for ya :thumb:

I do, however, disagree with part of your following statement:

Texas laying 3.5 over Nebraska. . . as I said at the beginning of the year, Nebraska is the most overrated team in the country followed by Florida State. . . I feel there will be excellent value against the Huskers the rest of the year as Vegas will not catch up

I'm not on either side in this one, and do agree that Nebraska was overrated to begin the season and I repeat "was" because I feel that there is absolutely NO value any more in betting against this Nebraska team for the value reason alone anymore. Vegas is always a little slow to catch up on teams of the Nebraska stature, but this is the time of the year every college season that Vegas not only catches up, but rather almost 'over catches up' if you know what I'm saying. Heck, when was the last time you seen Nebraska getting points in 2 straight games. Also this week they're catching 3 1/2 points at home....a place where I believe they only have 1 straight up loss in something like their last 70+ home games.

You may very well be right on this weeks game, Just wanted to add my .02 on how you perceive Vegas and their "catching up on teams", hope you don't mind, just trying to help. Kinda plays right along with the returning starters system which I believe Bobby Blue Chip has posted about on here. Vegas is slow early, but sometimes overcompensates mid to late in the season on these teams.

Good luck this week and continued success on those system plays.

-ndnfan

 

[hellah10]

Re: nickel

Re: nickel

be very careful with mich st...the program is in total chaos.....the qb allegedly caught selling coke.....

Didnt sell coke...

was shaving points...

 

[djv]

If that is found to be true its is 10 times worse then selling coke. What affect that can have with a politican on our asses already is very bad. I hope your joking.

 

[ChuckyTheGoat]

GL, Nickel. I think Eastern covers.