Thanksgiving Day Tips

Lumi · Nov 26, 2009

Thanksgiving Day Tips

Gamblers are loving life on Thanksgiving day. In addition to food galore, there are three NFL games that?ll start at 12:30 Eastern and carry on until nearly midnight. Let?s take a look at each matchup and more?

**Packers at Lions**

--Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Green Bay (6-4 straight up, 5-4-1 against the spread) as a 10-point favorite with a total of 49. As of Tuesday, most sports books had the Packers listed as 10 1/2-point favorites with the total down to 48. The Lions are plus-500 to win outright at the Las Vegas Hilton (risk $100 to win $500).

--Detroit (2-8 SU, 2-7-1 ATS) is coming off a 38-37 home win over Cleveland as a three-point favorite. Although the Lions failed to hook up their backers, they rallied from a 24-3 deficit to win on a one-yard touchdown pass from Matthew Stafford to another rookie, tight end Brandon Pettigrew, as time expired. Stafford became the first NFL rookie to throw five TD passes since 1937.

--Stafford suffered a dislocated left (non-throwing) shoulder on the next-to-last play of the game, as he took a hard hit from a Browns? defender after buying time scrambling to get off a Hail Mary pass that resulted in a pass-interference-penalty that set up the game-winning score. The injury has Stafford listed as "doubtful" and he watched Tuesday's practice from the sidelines. If veteran QB Daunte Culpepper gets the nod, it?ll be his third start of the year. Culpepper has completed 35-of-62 throws for 384 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. The UCF product has rushed for 44 yards on three attempts.

--Detroit WR Calvin Johnson, who is probably the team's best player, also sat out Tuesday's practice with hand and knee injuries. Johnson, who has a team-high 39 receptions for 597 yards and two TDs, is listed as "questionable."

--Green Bay is in a three-way tie with the Giants and Eagles for the lead in the NFC wild-card hunt. The Packers are coming off a 30-24 win over San Francisco as a six-point ?chalk.? They led by a 23-3 count at intermission, only to let down their backers by getting outscored 21-7 in the second half. Aaron Rodgers threw for 344 yards and two touchdowns without being picked off, while Ryan Grant rushed for 121 yards and one TD.

--Green Bay?s defense will be without a pair of starters for the remainder of the season. In the win over the Bucs, the Pack lost 12-year veteran cornerback Al Harris and LB Aaron Kampman to ACL tears. Kampman was the team?s fourth-leading tackler with 38 and 2 ? sacks. Harris, who had never missed a game until a spleen injury last season, had 33 tackles and two interceptions in 2009.

--Green Bay owns a 2-1 record both SU and ATS as a road favorite. The Packers took the cash in run-away-and-hide victories at St. Louis (36-17) and at Cleveland (31-3), but they lost 38-28 at Tampa Bay as 9 ?-point ?chalk.?

--Detroit has been a home underdog three times this season, compiling a 1-2 SU record and a 2-1 ATS mark. The Lions are 2-3 both SU and ATS in their five home assignments (whether favored or not).

--When these teams met at Lambeau Field back on Oct. 18, Green Bay collected a 26-0 win as a 14-point home favorite. Rodgers threw for 358 yards and a pair of TDs, while Grant rushed for 90 yards. Stafford was injured and did not play, leaving Culpepper and Drew Stanton to combined for only 105 passing yards and three interceptions.

--Fox will have the telecast at 12:30 p.m. Eastern.

**Raiders at Cowboys**

--LVSC opened Dallas (7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS) as a 14-point favorite with a total of 41 ?. As of early Tuesday, most sports books had the Cowboys favored by 13 ? or 14 with the total adjusted to 40 ?. The Raiders are plus-600 on the money line (risk $100 to win $600).

--Oakland (3-7 SU, 5-5 ATS) took advantage of a pair of fourth-quarter fumbles by the Bengals to rally for a 20-17 home win as a nine-point underdog this past Sunday. Bruce Gradkowski completed 17-of-34 passes for 183 yards with two touchdowns and one interception. He found rookie WR Louis Murphy on a 29-yard scoring strike with 33 seconds left to tie the game at 17-17. Next, Oakland recovered a fumble on the ensuing kick-off, paving the way for Sebastian Janikowski?s 33-yard field goal to hook up money-line backers with a plus-320 payout.

--Dallas won a 7-6 decision over Washington this past Sunday, but the Redskins easily covered the number as 11-point road underdogs. Tony Romo found Patrick Crayton for a nine-yard TD pass late in the fourth quarter to lift the Cowboys into the winner?s circle. Nevertheless, Wade Phillips and Co. has to be concerned about an offense that has mustered just 14 points in the last eight quarters.

--Romo has completed 60-percent of his throws for 2,624 passing yards with a 15/7 touchdown-interception ratio. However, he has just a 3/3 TD-INT ratio in the last three games.

--Gradkowski will be making his 14th career start. He has an 11/16 TD-INT ratio for his career. Gradkowski was the starter for Tampa Bay in a Thanksgiving Day game at Dallas in 2006. On that day, the Cowboys slammed the Bucs 38-10 as 11-point home favorites. I was in Las Vegas at the Mandalay Bay with my family for Thanksgiving in 2006, as the Gators were playing basketball at The Orleans that weekend against Western Ky. and Kansas. As we discussed the Bucs-Boys before kick-off, my father, brother-in-law and I decided to take the double-digit underdog. After we made our bets, my grandfather motioned me over to him and broke out a $100 bill. He said, ?Brian, go bet the Cowboys for me please.? Needless to say, ?Gobbler? Edwards enjoyed his white wine the next few hours as Dallas cashed an easy winner for him.

--This is the third double-digit ?chalk? spot for the ?Boys this season. They failed to cover against the ?Skins but did beat up on Seattle 38-17 as a 10-point home favorite back on Nov. 1. As for the Raiders, they own a 3-1 spread record in four games as double-digit underdogs.

--Dallas is 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS at home, while Oakland is 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS on the road.

--Dallas owns a one-game lead over both the Giants and Eagles for the lead in the NFC East.

--Oakland DE Richard Seymour is ?questionable? with a lower back injury sustained against Cincy. Seymour has four sacks and one forced fumble this year. WR Javon Walker is also ?questionable? with a hamstring injury. Walker has zero catches this season and had just 15 last year after signing a monster free-agent contract.

--The ?under? is 6-4 overall for the Raiders, 3-1 in their road games. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have seen the ?over? go 5-5 overall, 3-2 in their home outings.

--These teams haven?t met in the regular season since 2005 when Lamont Jordan led the Raiders to a 19-13 win as 3 ?-point home favorites.

--CBS will provide television coverage at 4:15 p.m. Eastern.

**Giants at Broncos**

--LVSC opened New York (6-4 SU, 4-5-1 ATS) as a 2 ?-point favorite with a total of 41. However, as of Tuesday afternoon, most spots had the G-Men listed as a 6 ?-point ?chalk? with the total adjusted to 42.

--Tom Coughlin?s team snapped a four-game losing streak by beating Atlanta 34-31 Sunday in overtime. The Giants blew a 31-17 advantage in the fourth quarter, allowing the Falcons to post the backdoor cover as seven-point road underdogs. Eli Manning threw for 384 yards and three TDs, marching his team into field-goal range on the first possession of the extra session.

--Denver (6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS) has lost four in a row both SU and ATS, including Sunday?s embarrassing 32-3 loss to San Diego as a six-point home underdog. Knowshon Moreno ran for 80 yards on 10 carries but his costly fumble into the end zone late in the second quarter was a killer.

--Denver QB Kyle Orton didn?t start against the Chargers but quickly came in when Chris Simms was ineffective. Orton connected on 15-of-29 passes for 171 yards with no TDs and one interception. The Purdue product had left the Washington game a week before with a sprained ankle that still isn?t 100 percent, although Orton is ?probable? for the Giants. For the season, Orton has an 11/5 TD-INT ratio.

--Manning has completed 60.5 percent of his passes for 2,454 yards with an 18/9 TD-INT ratio. WR Steve Smith is enjoying a breakout campaign, as he has 65 receptions for 798 yards and five TDs. Mario Manningham is also coming on with 40 catches for 617 yards and four TDs.

--New York RB Brandon Jacobs is expected to play, although he?s been slowed by a lingering knee injury in recent weeks. Jacobs is averaging 4.0 yards per carry and has 656 yards and three TDs in 2009. Ahmad Bradshaw has 549 rushing yards and four TDs for a 4.8 YPC average, but he's been declared "out" this week with an ankle injury.

--Moreno, Denver?s rookie RB from out of Georgia, has 600 rushing yards and two TDs. He is averaging 4.2 YPC. WR Brandon Marshall has a team-high 52 receptions for 628 yards and six TDs.

--Josh McDaniels? team is 3-2 both SU and ATS at home, but it has lost in back-to-back home spots to Pittsburgh (28-10) and San Diego. The Broncos are 2-2 both SU and ATS in four previous games as home underdogs.

--New York won its first three road games both SU and ATS, but it has dropped back-to-back road contests at New Orleans (48-27) and at Philadelphia (40-17).

--The Giants are an incredible 22-6 ATS in their last 28 road games.

--The ?over? is 6-3-1 overall for the Giants, 3-1-1 in their road assignments.

--The ?under? has been a monster money maker in Denver games, compiling an 8-2 overall record and a 5-0 mark in its home outings.

--The NFL Network will provide television coverage at 8:20 p.m. ET.

--The Titans are unbeaten in each of Vince Young?s last eight starts. They cashed sweet plus-170 money-line tickets in their 20-17 win Monday at Houston. Tennessee RB Chris Johnson enjoyed another monster performance against the Texans, rushing for 151 yards to bring his NFL-best total for the year to 1,242.

--The Bengals are back in the ?chalk? role again this week when they host Cleveland as 14-point favorites. Cincy has been dynamite as an underdog (6-0 both SU and ATS) but atrocious as a favorite. In fact, the Bengals are 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS when favored this season.

--Minnesota QB Brett Favre has an outstanding 21/3 TD-INT ratio to date. The lowest interception total of his career is 13. His previous best TD-INT ratio was 39/13 back in 1996.

--With Jason Elam mired in a brutal slump that includes costly misses the last two weeks at Carolina and at New York, Atlanta is trying out new kickers this week.

--As Matt Youmans of the Las Vegas Review Journal explains, backing the Steelers has been a shaky proposition in 2009.

Lumi · Nov 26, 2009

Coutu, 3 others tryout for Falcons' kicking jobBy D. Orlando Ledbetter

Coutu, 3 others tryout for Falcons' kicking jobBy D. Orlando Ledbetter

Coutu, 3 others tryout for Falcons' kicking jobBy D. Orlando Ledbetter

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

5:07 p.m. Tuesday, November 24, 2009

With veteran kicker Jason Elam mired in a slump, the Falcons brought in four kickers for tryouts on Tuesday.

Former Georgia standout Brandon Coutu, Steve Hauschka, Sam Swank and Shane Andrus all went through workouts for the team.

Elam, 39, has missed six field goals this season after making 29 of 31 attempts in 2008. He had key misses in the last two games, missing a 34-yarder in a two-point game against Carolina and missed a 35-yarder against the New York Giants. The Falcons lost in overtime 34-31 to the Giants.

Coutu, who played at Collins Hill High, was drafted by the Seattle Seahawks in 2008, but failed to make the team. At Georgia, his longest field goal was a 58-yarder against Louisiana-Monroe in 2005.

Coutu, who worked out with former Falcons kicker Morten Andersen this offseason, made 51 of 64 field goals at Georgia. He was 5 of 11 on field goals between 50 and 59 yards. He was 29 of 31 on field goals under 40 yards.

Haushka, was recently cut by the Baltimore Ravens, he missed four field goals in nine games, including a potential winning 44-yarder against Minnesota and 38-yarder in Cincinnati that would have gotten Baltimore within a touchdown late in the game.

Andrus has been with Seattle and Tampa Bay.

Swank, a former Wake Forest standout, has been with Philadelphia and Cincinnati.

Lumi · Nov 26, 2009

Total Talk - Turkey Day

Total Talk - Turkey Day

Total Talk - Turkey Day

Everybody knows that the majority of gamblers like to press the ?over? when it comes to betting totals. It?s understandable that most folks enjoy seeing points put up on the scoreboard, plus you always have the opportunity to cash your bet before the game has ended and look ahead to the next wager. Players siding with the ?over? in Week 11 didn?t have much time to look ahead and they're probably still be getting up after the beating they took at the counter. The ?under? went 10-4-1 in the 15 games and all three primetime contests on Thursday, Sunday and Monday were low-scoring affairs as well. After last week?s results, the ?over? stands at 80-78-2 (51%).

Thursday?s Trio

Before we break down all the games today, let?s keep in mind that the ?under? is 3-0 on Thursday this season, which includes the season opener between the Steelers and Titans. As mentioned in last week?s piece, most coaches use the short week to focus on defense first, and it's showed so far. The average score in the three has averaged 26.6 PPG. Will the trend continue?

Green Bay at Detroit (48)

The oddsmakers posted a high total on this divisional matchup and there are few reasons why. First, Detroit?s defense (30.1 PPG, 391 YPG) is absolutely atrocious and it can?t stop anybody. Second, Green Bay's offense (26.2 PPG) has the ability to put up points in a hurry and its defense (20.3 PPG) has been known to give up big plays too. Not to mention the Packers lost two starters, DE Aaron Kampman and DB Al Harris, to season-ending knee injuries last week.

In the first meeting on Oct. 18, the Packers blanked the Lions 26-0 at home and the closing total of 48 was never threatened. Green Bay jumped out to an early 14-0 lead in the first quarter and it looked like the club was going to drop a 50-spot on the board but the game slowed down considerably. The Packers finished with 435 yards of total offense and wound up kicking four field goals. The Lions only posted 149 yards on offense and that was with Daunte Culpepper starting. The veteran is expected to see time against the Packers on Thursday with rookie Matthew Stafford (shoulder) expected to be miss again. Considering Stafford tossed five touchdowns in last week's 38-37 victory against Cleveland, Culpepper definitely has his work cut out for him.

The Packers have averaged 26.2 PPG on the road this year, which has helped the 'over' go 3-1. Despite putting up 38 last week against Cleveland, the Lions have managed just 15.5 PPG in their other four games at Ford Field. The 'under' has gone 3-2 on the year.

Prior to the first meeting this season, the 'over' cashed in the previous four meetings. The two teams have met five teams on Thanksgiving and the 'over' has gone 4-1 in those games.

Oakland at Dallas (40)

The Cowboys once potent attack has been stifled to seven points in each of the last two weeks. Will Dallas be able to turn the corner on the holiday or come out firing blanks? The last three games on Thanksgiving for the Cowboys have been gifts, considering who they've been matched up against and this year is no different. Looking at the past three seasons, Dallas has destroyed the Buccaneers (38-10), Jets (34-3) and Seahawks (34-0). Will Oakland be the latest victim? The oddsmakers believe so, making the 'Boys double-digit favorites but the total is hovering around 40 points. Dallas hasn't seen a total this low since its Week 1 battle at Tampa Bay, which had a number of 39.5. The Cowboys had a bunch of big plays and wound up beating the Bucs 34-21.

Most would expect Dallas to put some points up in this matchup because it should get plenty of possessions against an Oakland offense that has trouble moving the chains. The Raiders are converting just 28 percent on third down and the offense hasn't been able to score more than 20 points all year. Plus, Dallas' defense is playing great football this season. Only the Giants (33 points) were able to exploit the unit and everybody else has been held to 21 points or less.

Prior to the seven-point performance last week versus Washington, the Cowboys put up 31, 21, 37 and 38 at home this year. The 'over' has gone 3-2.

N.Y. Giants at Denver (42)

When looking at this total, gamblers will have to ride the wave or go against it. The Giants have played five games on the road this year and the 'over' has gone 4-1. Meanwhile, the 'under' is a perfect 5-0 from Invesco Field at Mile High this season.

It appears that the schedule has caught up with the G-Men. After starting the year 5-0 and holding their first five opponents to 14.2 PPG, the team has gone 1-4 and allowed 32.8 PPG. Fortunately for New York, they face a Denver offense that has had trouble scoring all year and QB Kyle Orton's status is listed as 'probable' fo Thursday. The former Purdue standout hasn't been known to produce big numbers anyway, just wins and unfortunately not lately. Denver once owned the best defense in the league but it has been humbled as well. The Broncos have allowed 30, 28, 27 and 32 the past four weeks.

This will be the fourth and final game for the Giants against the AFC West this season. In the first three, New York posted 27, 44 and 20. The 'over' has gone 2-1.

NFL Network will provide national coverage of this game at 8:20 p.m. EST. This will be the fourth straight season that the league has added the third game on Thanksgiving. The 'over' has gone 2-1 in the first three years.

Fearless Predictions:

Eleven weeks of the NFL season are in the books and we?ve been posting our selections for the past 10 stanzas. With that being said, we?re going to double-up this week and catch up with plays for Thursday and the remaining games later in the week too.

Last week, the Best Bets went 1-0-1 with the Pats-Jets total landing directly on 45. The game had 31 in the first 30 minutes thanks to the New York special team touchdown. However, a late missed field goal in the first half and New England letting off the gas in the second-half stymied that winning ticket. Surprisingly, we hit a teaser last week. On the year, the Best Bets are now 10-9-1 (+10) and the teasers are 3-7 (-400). The deficit has been cut from $590 to $390 and hopefully it will dip again on Thanksgiving. As always, press, pass or fade. Good Luck!

Best Over: Packers-Lions 48

Best Under: Raiders-Cowboys 40

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over Packers-Lions 39
Under Raiders-Cowboys 49
Over Giants-Broncos 33

Lumi · Nov 26, 2009

Short Week equals Big Action

Short Week equals Big Action

Short Week equals Big Action

The importance of both assertiveness and patience were on display last week in NFL football betting. It all depended on which way you saw the match-up between the Indianapolis Colts and Baltimore Ravens, a game that was won 17-15 by Peyton Manning and company.

Online football bettors who got in on the Colts early were rewarded, as were those who waited for the right number on the Ravens. That?s because the Colts opened at -1 and quickly received heavy action, pushing the line to -1.5, then -2, then all the way up to -2.5 before temporarily moving back to -2 and finally closing at -2.5.

As is typical with casual NFL bettors, the majority of wagers were placed close to the start of the game, so Bodog actually took most of the Indy action at -2.5, leaving the book with a small win on the game. If tardy Colts backers had simply checked the opening line and taken -1, they would?ve won. Instead it was a half-point loss.

You might be wondering, couldn?t the action have pushed the line the other way? It?s possible, but you have to consider the match-up. Undefeated football teams that aren?t laying a lot of points are typically popular with casual bettors, even on the road against good teams like the Ravens. After a while, experienced bettors develop a feel for the way lines are going to move, which is why a lot of the sharp money waited on the sidelines before it pounded the Ravens at +2.5.

In other action last week, the players won big on Sunday Night Football when the Eagles (-3) beat Jay Cutler and the Bears by 4. Chicago is a mess right now and it?ll be interesting to see how high the line for Sunday?s Bears-Vikings game in Minnesota goes. At the beginning of the season, would anyone have predicted a double-digit spread for this one?

The majority of bettors also took the Patriots to bounce back against the Jets a week after being embarrassed by the Colts (not to mention their own coach). At the risk of understating things, there might be some interest in New England?s next game on Monday night in New Orleans. So far we?re seeing heavy early action on the Pats (+3) against the undefeated Saints, but expect us to adjust the moneyline before we move off a key number like 3.

Of course, this week also brings us three games on Thanksgiving. We expect Thursday?s games to double the handle of the average Sunday game, even with teams like Detroit, Oakland and free-falling Denver involved.

Lumi · Nov 26, 2009

Raiders attractive 'dogs, handicapper Tuley says

Raiders attractive 'dogs, handicapper Tuley says

Raiders attractive 'dogs, handicapper Tuley says

By MATT YOUMANS
LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL
When quarterback Tony Romo gets rolling, the Dallas Cowboys can be tough to stop. But the opposite was true the past two weeks, as their offense slowed to a crawl.

The Cowboys are 131/2-point home favorites over the Oakland Raiders in one of three games on the NFL's bland Thanksgiving menu.

Green Bay is an 111/2-point favorite at Detroit in the early game, and the day wraps up with the New York Giants as 61/2-point favorites at Denver.

Dave Tuley of Viewfromvegas.com said the Raiders are the most attractive of the underdogs. Sparked by a quarterback change from JaMarcus Russell to Bruce Gradkowski, Oakland upset the Cincinnati Bengals last week, scoring 10 points in the final 33 seconds of a 20-17 victory.

Dallas, off a lackluster 7-6 win over the Washington Redskins, has scored just one touchdown in each of its past two games.

"The Raiders throw in some clunkers here and there, but they have been playing much better, especially on defense," said Tuley, who has a 20-3-1 record on NFL plays on his Web site the past three weeks. "But it's more of a bet against the Cowboys. What have the Cowboys shown recently? I don't see how this team is favored by two touchdowns."

The Raiders are 3-1 against the spread (ATS) as double-digit underdogs.

Detroit might be without rookie quarterback Matthew Stafford against the Packers. Stafford dislocated his left shoulder in a 38-37 victory over the Cleveland Browns.

The Lions, 2-8 straight up and 2-7-1 ATS, were whipped 26-0 at Green Bay on Oct. 18.

The New York-Denver game will see one streak end. The Giants failed to cover their past five games, and the Broncos have dropped four in a row straight up and ATS.

The Las Vegas Hilton sports book has posted 10 proposition bets on each of today's games.

The total for Romo's pass attempts is 301/2. The total passing yards for Giants quarterback Eli Manning is set at 2251/2.

? R-J CHALLENGE -- Four of the 10 competitors in the Las Vegas Review-Journal NFL Challenge, which is published Sundays, are playing games today based on the Hilton SuperContest lines.

Tuley is on the Raiders. R-J sports editor Joe Hawk and assistant sports editor Dennis Rudner are siding with the Packers (-101/2). Hawk and handicapper Mike Scalleat are on the Broncos (+61/2).

Lumi · Nov 26, 2009

THANKSGIVING CAPSULES

THANKSGIVING CAPSULES

THANKSGIVING CAPSULES
TIME: 9:30 a.m. LINE: Packers by 11

TV: Fox (5) RADIO: KWWN-AM (1100)

? FACTS: The Lions rallied from 24-3 down last week behind QB Matthew Stafford (doubtful, shoulder) to beat Cleveland, 38-37. When Green Bay was in town last year, Detroit also overcame a 21-point deficit to lead but lost, 48-25. ... Holiday tradition: Detroit has dropped its past five Turkey Day games by an average of 23 points. ... The last time the Lions threw lumbering QB Daunte Culpepper to the Packers resulted in a 26-0 Green Bay victory five weeks ago. Detroit mustered 147 yards, the seventh-worst total by anyone this year. WR Calvin Johnson (questionable, knee/hand) didn't play then, either.

? ANALYSIS: Lions coach Jim Schwartz bemoaned the fact Cleveland had too much time to make plays even when Detroit blitzed. If the Lions can't fluster Aaron Rodgers, the league's fourth-rated passer, fans will be donning their bag heads in the third quarter.

? FORECAST: Packers 41, Lions 16

TIME: 1:15 p.m. LINE: Cowboys by 131/2

TV: CBS (8) RADIO: KWWN-AM (1100)

WEATHER: Mid-60s, no chance of rain

? FACTS: Counting this game, QB Tony Romo and the Cowboys have been at least an 11-point favorite against the past four turkeys to visit on Thanksgiving. Dallas covered the first three easily. ... New Raiders QB Bruce Gradkowski improved to 4-9 as a starter in his career with last week's victory against Cincinnati. ... Cowboys TE Jason Witten (foot sprain) is expected to be a game-time decision. ... If Oakland gains its second victory in a row, it will match the team's longest winning streak in the past seven years.

? ANALYSIS: The Raiders' upset victory last week masks the fact they were gouged for 177 rushing yards by a team using its backup RB. Thus, Dallas no doubt will attempt to punish Oakland on the ground. After all, the Raiders have given up 215-plus rushing yards three times this year, tied for the league high.

? FORECAST: Cowboys 31, Raiders 10

TIME: 5:20 p.m. LINE: Giants by 61/2

TV: NFL (317) RADIO: KWWN-AM (1100)

WEATHER: High 50s, no chance of rain

? FACTS: The Giants were bristling about having to travel 1,800 miles for this Thursday game on mega-short rest. In history, teams flying 1,800-plus miles in this scenario are 5-4 against the line, including messy losses last Thanksgiving by Seattle (vs. Dallas) and Arizona (vs. Philadelphia). ... This game looked like must-see TV six weeks ago when both teams were 5-0. ... Denver's Elvis Dumervil has a league-best 12 sacks but only two during the team's four-game slide. ... The Giants, with the league's second-ranked defense (282.2 yards a game), have yielded an average of 371 during their 1-4 slump.

? ANALYSIS: Both teams have bandaged playmakers. New York RBs Ahmad Bradshaw (out, ankle) and Brandon Jacobs (probable, knee) have taken turns not producing. For Denver, all hopes ride on QB Kyle Orton (probable, ankle). Based on his courageous relief effort Sunday, he'll be out there and will provide a spark.

? FORECAST: Broncos 23, Giants 20

Lumi · Nov 26, 2009

Lett still recalled as turkey

Lett still recalled as turkey

Lett still recalled as turkey
Leon Lett helped the Cowboys win three Super Bowls and was named to two Pro Bowls during his playing days in Dallas.

But "The Big Cat" is best known for being involved in two of the most infamous plays in NFL history, including one that took place on Thanksgiving Day 1993.

In the final seconds of a showdown of first-place squads playing in a rare sleet and snow storm in Dallas, the Cowboys blocked a potential game-winning 41-yard field-goal try.

But Lett, a 6-foot-6-inch, 292-pound defensive tackle, inexplicably tried to pick up the ball. He slipped in the snow and fumbled the ball back to Miami with three seconds left.

Had no Cowboys player touched the football after the block, Dallas would have taken possession and won the game. But because of Lett's gaffe -- ranked No. 3 on ESPN's "25 Biggest Sports Blunders" -- Miami kicker Pete Stoyanovich was able to boot a 19-yard field goal that gave the Dolphins a 16-14 win.

Fortunately for Lett, Dallas won its next eight games, including Super Bowl XXVIII. The Dolphins didn't win another game that season, finished 9-7 and missed the playoffs.

The Thanksgiving classic, which will be broadcast at 6 a.m. today on the NFL Network, was named the third-most memorable game in the history of Texas Stadium by ESPN.

Lett also was involved in the top-ranked sports blunder in the previous season's Super Bowl, which the Cowboys won 52-17 over the Bills.

Late in the fourth quarter, Lett recovered a fumble on Buffalo's 45-yard line and was returning it for an apparent easy score when Bills receiver Don Beebe chased him down from behind and knocked the ball out of his outstretched hand just before he crossed the goal line. The ball went out of the end zone for a touchback that cost Lett his touchdown.

"Every day, if I'm in an airport or a grocery store and someone sees my name, they always bring up those two plays," the 41-year-old Lett told ESPN this year. "There aren't too many days where I don't hear about them or think about them myself."

Lett, who now lives in Las Vegas and graduated from UNLV in May with a bachelor's degree in university studies, has made Thanksgiving memorable for thousands of families since he retired in 2001.

On Tuesday, he donated and distributed free turkeys to the families of hundreds of local students at Rainbow Dreams Academy, a public charter school sponsored by the Clark County School District.

? HEADS I WIN; TAILS YOU LOSE -- Another memorable Turkey Day blunder took place in 1998, when the Lions edged the Steelers 19-16 in overtime.

The extra session started with a bizarre coin toss. Pittsburgh running back Jerome Bettis could be heard saying 'tails,' but official Phil Luckett said Bettis called 'heads' and awarded the ball to the Lions when the coin landed on tails.

It was reported later that Bettis started to say 'heads' before saying 'tails' and Luckett abided by NFL rules in going with Bettis' first call.

Detroit took possession and won on Jason Hanson's 42-yard field goal.

? NFL ON THANKSGIVING -- The NFL has played on Thanksgiving every year since 1920, when the Akron Pros beat the Canton Bulldogs, 7-0.

The Lions have played every year on Thanksgiving since 1945 and the Cowboys since 1966.

Lumi · Nov 26, 2009

NFL Turkey Day and other Thursday Trends

NFL Turkey Day and other Thursday Trends

NFL Turkey Day and other Thursday Trends

Let?s stop all this talk about changing out Detroit and Dallas on Thanksgiving to allow other teams to play. The Lions have been bad for years, so what, we still watch at least a good portion of the game and would it kill you to talk to a family member if the game isn?t a classic. We have three games to choose from during the course of the day, let?s just enjoy what we have.

If both teams played at home last week, the home underdog is 2-9 ATS and 9-2 OVER. (Detroit and Denver)
If both teams played at home last week, the home favorite is 10-4-1 ATS. (Dallas)
If both teams were favorites in last contest, the home team 7-12-2 ATS (Detroit)
If the home team was favored last week and the visitor was an underdog, the home team is 11-0 ATS. (Dallas)
If the home team was an underdog in last game and the visiting team was a favorite, the home club is 1-8 ATS and 5-1 UNDER. (Denver)
If the home town team is off a SU loss and the visitor is off a SU win, the road team is 7-1 ATS and 8-3 UNDER. (New York Giants)
If the road team is off two wins, they are 10-3 ATS. (Green Bay)
Road teams that were underdogs last week are 5-22 ATS. (Oakland)
Home favorites of seven or more 7-1 UNDER. (Dallas)
Home teams that were favored by six or more points in last contest are 12-3-1 ATS. (Dallas)
Home teams of a SU win are 9-4-1 ATS and 22-13-1 OVER (Detroit and Dallas)
Home teams off a SU loss are 4-8 ATS. (Denver)
Home teams after scoring 28 or more points are 8-1 ATS and 12-4-1 OVER. (Detroit)
In the last six years, home favorites are 18-8-1 ATS, including 8-1 ATS if favored by a touchdown or more. (Dallas)
Away favorites are 9-0 ATS since 2004. (Green Bay and New York Giants)

Additional angles to think about.

Take the OVER on turkey consumption.
Play the OVER on one person having too much to drink.
Take the OVER on at least 20 percent of those in attendance taking a nap.
Play the OVER on potatoes consumed.
Take the OVER on eyes rolled, snickers and laughter.
Take the UNDER on cranberries eaten.
Take the OVER on pumpkin pie and desserts.

Lumi · Nov 26, 2009

Happy Thanksgiving and may your bets come in

Happy Thanksgiving and may your bets come in

Happy Thanksgiving and may your bets come in

It?s a splendid day to slow down, take a break and enjoy life. Let the big box store?s try and fool us thinking they have safety concerns about the day after Thanksgiving, giving them a reason to be open today. At least most of us understand what today is, a day for thanks for all the good things that come to us. In addition, besides great food and family, we receive a healthy portion of football, to which a few dollars could be set aside to hopefully also make it a profitable day in other ways. Here?s a look at the day time action. Lines from Bookmaker.com.

Green Bay at Detroit (+11.5, 47.5)

Dating back to 1934, the Lions have been a proud part of the American celebration of Thanksgiving Day. They?ve played 69 games on the national holiday and take a 33-34-2 record into this year?s contest against Green Bay. Detroit (2-8, 2-7-1 ATS) has dropped five straight up and against the spread on the fourth Thursday of November while being outscored by a lopsided 168-60 margin, and comes into this game winners of just three of its last 32 games (10-21-1 ATS) dating back to the halfway mark of 2007.

Since Green Bay won 37-26 as a field goal favorite two years ago, coach Mike McCarthy?s team has beaten the Lions four straight times (1-3 ATS), with an average score of 34.8-14.8. In fact, Detroit hasn?t won outright in this series since 2005, a span of eight games (2-6 ATS). The game is very important for Green Bay, 6-4 after beating San Francisco this past Sunday and currently is the top NFC wild card team.

Green Bay?s defense is ranked third overall in yards allowed, but it has been feast of famine in points conceded. In the Packers six victories, they have only surrendered more than 17 points once (5-0-1 ATS) and in the four losses, they have allowed 30 or more points (0-4 ATS). They shutout Detroit 26-0 in earlier meeting and are 9-4 ATS as road favorites, however, a great deal of shifting has to occur with Al Harris and Aaron Kampman done for the year with knee injuries.

The Packers will face a similar Detroit offense in the rematch. The Lions are expected to be without rookie quarterback Matthew Stafford and third-year wide receiver Calvin Johnson because of injuries. Daunte Culpepper will again get the start in place of Stafford and had a miserable day the last time (6-for-14, 48 yards, one interception) before leaving in the third quarter with a hamstring injury. It?s unfortunate for coach Jim Schwartz , since Stafford had a career day last week, setting a league mark for most touchdown passes (five) in a game by a rookie. His last one, with no time left, beat Cleveland 38-37. The Lions are 6-16 ATS off one or more straight Overs and 1-8 ATS in weeks 10 through 13 over the last three seasons.

Detroit hasn?t won back to back games since games 6-thur-8 in 2007; however Green Bay on this day will often bring out the best in them, just like in 2003, when they won 22-14 as a touchdown underdog. The Lions are 8-0 ATS at home in November against teams off consecutive wins.

Line ? Green Bay by 11
? Detroit covers

Oakland at Dallas (-13.5, 40)

Of late, Thanksgiving Day has been more like Groundhog Day, with Detroit losing early game and Dallas winning big in the late afternoon tilt. In fact, the last Turkey Day wins by the Cowboys have been by 25, 31 and 28 points. They are expected to win big again in ?09, with the Oakland coming to town for the inaugural holiday affair at brand new Cowboys? Stadium.

Dallas comes in with a 7-3 (5-5 ATS) mark after surviving Washington, but is now just 3-6 ATS as double-digit chalk under Wade Phillips. However, they will be looking to extend a run of 29-14 ATS at home in the month of November.

The Cowboys will like the person who hid the big turkey leg in the back of refrigerator for later consumption, sifting thru the maze of food to find it. After averaging 30.2 points per game starting Oct. 11, Dallas has two touchdowns in the last two games in totaling a mere 14 points, which all came in the fourth quarter. The Boys will be searching for offense and are 29-14 ATS in home games after scoring 14 points or less last outing.

This will be Oakland?s first appearance playing on Thanksgiving since the AFL and NFL merged in 1970. The Raiders (3-7, 5-5 ATS), much like recent times, lost 28-14 to Detroit in that game, with one difference, they were an elite team back in yesteryear.

This is Oakland?s first visit to Big D in 11 years and is coming off rare victory last week in upset of Cincinnati 20-17. Coach Tom Cable had seen enough of JaMarcus Russell and his poor work habits and has turned the team over journeymen Bruce Gradkowski. The former Toledo star has about one-fifth the ability of Russell, but proved last week he?s a fighter and played inspired football. Among the issues in this contest is the Raiders run defense, which is 30th overall and they are 17-33 ATS versus good rushing teams like Dallas (5 YPC), averaging 4.5 or more yards per carry.

Oakland is 4-1 ATS as a dog of 10-points or more under coach Cable, but if they trail at halftime, don?t expect and comeback from the Silver and Black, as they have scored only 42 points in the final 30 minutes on the season, with a grand total of three trips into the end zone. (None in the third quarter)

The culprit is the lack of passing game, which averages an unfathomable 125 yards per game and Dallas is 15-3 ATS at home vs. destitute passing teams averaging 5.2 or less passing yards per attempt, winning by 17.4 points per game.

Line ? Dallas by 16
? Dallas covers

Lumi · Nov 26, 2009

Key Performance Information

Key Performance Information

Key Performance Information

GREEN BAY

AS A FAVORITE OF 10 OR MORE PTS
This season
SU: 1-0 | ATS: 1-0 Last 3 seaons
SU: 2-0 | ATS: 1-1 Since 1993
SU: 22-3 | ATS: 6-17
IN ALL GAMES
This season
SU: 6-4 | ATS: 5-4 Last 3 seaons
SU: 26-18 | ATS: 25-16 Since 1993
SU: 185-119 | ATS: 152-137
WHEN PLAYING AGAINST A TEAM WITH A LOSING RECORD IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE SEASON
This season
SU: 1-0 | ATS: 0-0 Last 3 seaons
SU: 7-3 | ATS: 5-4 Since 1993
SU: 49-16 | ATS: 32-31
IN WEEKS 10 THROUGH 13
This season
SU: 2-0 | ATS: 1-0 Last 3 seaons
SU: 6-4 | ATS: 6-3 Since 1993
SU: 41-29 | ATS: 33-33
IN ALL LINED GAMES
This season
SU: 6-4 | ATS: 5-4 Last 3 seaons
SU: 26-18 | ATS: 25-16 Since 1993
SU: 185-119 | ATS: 152-137
AS A FAVORITE
This season
SU: 5-3 | ATS: 4-3 Last 3 seaons
SU: 18-10 | ATS: 15-11 Since 1993
SU: 145-57 | ATS: 98-92
AS A ROAD FAVORITE OF 10.5 TO 14 PTS
This season
SU: 0-0 | ATS: 0-0 Last 3 seaons
SU: 0-0 | ATS: 0-0 Since 1993
SU: 2-1 | ATS: 0-3
IN ROAD GAMES
This season
SU: 2-2 | ATS: 2-2 Last 3 seaons
SU: 10-10 | ATS: 12-7 Since 1993
SU: 71-78 | ATS: 76-69
IN ROAD LINED GAMES
This season
SU: 2-2 | ATS: 2-2 Last 3 seaons
SU: 10-10 | ATS: 12-7 Since 1993
SU: 71-78 | ATS: 76-69
IN A ROAD GAME WHERE THE TOTAL IS BETWEEN 45.5 AND 49 PTS
This season
SU: 0-1 | ATS: 0-1 Last 3 seaons
SU: 3-2 | ATS: 3-2 Since 1993
SU: 11-10 | ATS: 11-10
IN ALL GAMES WHERE THE TOTAL IS BETWEEN 42.5 AND 49 PTS
This season
SU: 4-3 | ATS: 4-3 Last 3 seaons
SU: 13-8 | ATS: 14-7 Since 1993
SU: 61-48 | ATS: 57-50
AGAINST CONFERENCE OPPONENTS
This season
SU: 5-3 | ATS: 4-3 Last 3 seaons
SU: 20-14 | ATS: 19-13 Since 1993
SU: 144-88 | ATS: 117-105
WHEN PLAYING ON A THURSDAY
This season
SU: 0-0 | ATS: 0-0 Last 3 seaons
SU: 1-1 | ATS: 1-1 Since 1993
SU: 3-5 | ATS: 2-6
WHEN PLAYING WITH 6 OR LESS DAYS REST
This season
SU: 4-3 | ATS: 3-3 Last 3 seaons
SU: 19-13 | ATS: 17-13 Since 1993
SU: 138-81 | ATS: 107-100
VERSUS DIVISION OPPONENTS
This season
SU: 2-2 | ATS: 2-2 Last 3 seaons
SU: 10-6 | ATS: 11-5 Since 1993
SU: 85-45 | ATS: 67-58
IN DOME GAMES
This season
SU: 1-1 | ATS: 1-1 Last 3 seaons
SU: 5-3 | ATS: 6-2 Since 1993
SU: 23-28 | ATS: 25-26
IN GAMES PLAYED ON TURF
This season
SU: 1-1 | ATS: 1-1 Last 3 seaons
SU: 5-4 | ATS: 6-3 Since 1993
SU: 27-47 | ATS: 31-43
IN NOVEMBER GAMES
This season
SU: 2-2 | ATS: 1-2 Last 3 seaons
SU: 7-7 | ATS: 7-5 Since 1993
SU: 44-33 | ATS: 35-37
AFTER 2 OR MORE CONSECUTIVE WINS
This season
SU: 0-1 | ATS: 0-1 Last 3 seaons
SU: 6-7 | ATS: 6-6 Since 1993
SU: 64-40 | ATS: 45-49
WHEN PLAYING AGAINST A TEAM WITH A LOSING RECORD
This season
SU: 3-1 | ATS: 2-1 Last 3 seaons
SU: 11-5 | ATS: 9-6 Since 1993
SU: 70-31 | ATS: 49-50

NFL Capsules: Green Bay at Detroit

Thursday, Nov. 26GREEN BAY (6-4) At DETROIT (2-8)12:35 p.m. ET, Fox
OPENING LINE - Packers by 11

RECORD VS. SPREAD - Green Bay 5-4-1; Detroit 2-7-1

SERIES RECORD - Packers lead 87-64-7

LAST MEETING - Packers beat Lions 26-0, Oct. 18, 2009

LAST WEEK - Packers beat 49ers 30-24; Lions beat Browns 38-37

PACKERS OFFENSE - OVERALL (7), RUSH (11), PASS (7)

PACKERS DEFENSE - OVERALL (3), RUSH (4), PASS (7)

LIONS OFFENSE - OVERALL (24), RUSH (25), PASS (18)

LIONS DEFENSE - OVERALL (31), RUSH (20) PASS (32)

STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - Lions and Packers played 13 straight games on Thanksgiving from 1951-63 and are matching up on the holiday for 19th time. ... Detroit is 11-6-1 against Green Bay on Thanksgiving, including loss two years ago and its last win in 2003. ... Detroit has lost five straight and seven of eight on Thanksgiving, falling to 33-34-2 on the holiday since 1934. ... Green Bay has won eight straight in overall series and coach Mike McCarthy is 7-0 against Detroit. ... In last meeting, Green Bay WR Donald Driver had 107 yards receiving and broke Sterling Sharpe's team record for career receptions. Lions LB Julian Peterson had 2 1/2 sacks and forced two fumbles. ... In last year's 48-25 win at Detroit, Aaron Rodgers threw for 328 yards and three TDs and CB Charles Woodson returned one of his two interceptions for score. ... Woodson, who helped Michigan win 1997 national championship and won Heisman Trophy, has five interceptions this season. ... Woodson has 24 INTs overall and leads league with five TDs off interceptions since becoming a Packer in 2006. ... Rogers has thrown for 300-plus yards in each of his three games vs. Detroit. ... Green Bay beat San Francisco last week, but lost CB Al Harris and LB Aaron Kampman with season-ending knee injuries. ... Last week vs. Cleveland, Lions QB Matthew Stafford broke rookie record with 422 yards passing, and his five TDs tied rookie record Ray Buivid set in 1937. WR Calvin Johnson had career-high 161 yards receiving, including 75 on TD. ... Stafford (shoulder) and Johnson (hand/knee) did hobbled. If Stafford can't play, Daunte Culpepper will start. ... Culpepper was 6 of 14 for 48 yards and interception last month at Green Bay. ... Culpepper has thrown three INTS and only one TD in two starts and one game as backup this season.

Lumi · Nov 26, 2009

Lumi · Nov 26, 2009

Raiders punter tempted by Dallas video boards

Raiders punter tempted by Dallas video boards

Raiders punter tempted by Dallas video boards

ALAMEDA, Calif. (AP) -Raiders punter Shane Lechler has no plans to intentionally try to hit the video boards in Dallas this week, although the idea is tempting.

``I'm not going to go for it on purpose (but) if it's there, it's there,'' Lechler said Tuesday as the Raiders prepared for their first Thanksgiving Day game since 1970. ``I'll check it out during pre-game, see how high it is.''

Lechler leads the NFL in punting, is on pace to break the league's single-season record and appears headed for his fifth Pro Bowl appearance.

Yet none of that will come into play Thursday when Lechler is on the field below the Cowboys' 160-foot long, 90-foot high video board, the largest of its kind in the world according to the Guinness Book of Records.

Several punters have hit the video boards at the Cowboys' stadium during warm-ups but only one has managed to do it, in a preseason game. A.J. Trapasso, then a reserve with the Tennessee Titans who is now a free agent, hit the massive high definition screens on Aug. 21, causing a minor controversy as officials and the league wrestled with how to handle it.

Shortly after Trapasso's kick, NFL commissioner Roger Goodell met with the league's Competition Committee and instituted new rule changes regarding the scoreboard, one of which calls for the down to be replayed if a punter hits the screen.

Dallas coach Wade Phillips doesn't think Lechler will try to hit the screen, which hangs down from the middle of the Cowboys' stadium, simply because of his style of punting.

``Nobody's even come close except the guy that kicked it straight up in preseason to try to hit it,'' Phillips said on a conference call. ``Shane doesn't kick 'em straight up. We haven't had anybody that had any problem with it.''

Still, Lechler's teammates will be watching closely before and during the game to see if he'll take a shot at it.

``I'm sure he'll probably be a little amped-up to try to hit it just because of all the controversy it had in the preseason,'' said Raiders long-snapper Jon Condo. ``(But) if he's focusing on hitting the scoreboard then more than likely he's not going to get a good punt off.''

That is Lechler's thinking.

While he says he'll definitely try to hit the scoreboard in pre-game warmups, Lechler insists it would be selfish to attempt it during the game, especially since hitting it would require a re-kick.

``If that guy in Tennessee hit it, I can hit it,'' he said. ``I mean, if I hit it I hit it. It's kind of a tough spot to put our guys in, though.''

Notes: LB Jon Alston is still suffering the effects of two concussions and will not play against the Cowboys. ``He's having some residual effects from the last concussion he had,'' Oakland coach Tom Cable said. ``When he showed up Saturday ill, that's when we started to figure out what's going on. He was throwing up, dizziness and things like that so we're still looking into what's going on with that.'' ... DL Richard Seymour, who strained his lower back early in Sunday's win over Cincinnati, practiced without limitations and is expected to play against Dallas. ... Former Cowboys DE Greg Ellis, slowed by knee and shoulder injuries, is also expected to play.

Lumi · Nov 26, 2009

NFL Capsules: Oakland at Dallas

OAKLAND RAIDERS (3-7) at DALLAS (7-3)4:15 p.m. ET, CBS
OPENING LINE - Cowboys by 14

RECORD VS. SPREAD - Oakland 5-5; Dallas 5-5

SERIES RECORD - Raiders lead 6-3

LAST MEETING - Raiders beat Cowboys 19-13, Oct. 2, 2005

LAST WEEK - Raiders beat Bengals 20-17; Cowboys beat Redskins 7-6

RAIDERS OFFENSE - OVERALL (32), RUSH (20), PASS (32)

RAIDERS DEFENSE - OVERALL (24), RUSH (30), PASS (12)

COWBOYS OFFENSE - OVERALL (5), RUSH (8) PASS (9)

COWBOYS DEFENSE - OVERALL (16), RUSH (7) PASS (20)

STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - Oakland is one of only two NFL teams Cowboys have never beaten at home. Other is Baltimore. ... Dallas last beat Raiders in 1995. This is only fourth meeting since. ... Cowboys have 81 wins against AFC teams, most by an NFC team. ... Raiders last played Thanksgiving Day in 1970, when they lost 28-14 at Detroit. ... RB Justin Fargas, who has 3,182 career yards rushing, needs 136 to catch Charlie Smith for ninth on the Raiders' career rushing list. Fargas has only nine career TDs, two in last three games. ... DE Greg Ellis, who spent last 11 seasons with Dallas, has five sacks for Oakland. ... Raiders had 11 tackles for loss and three sacks last week against Cincinnati. ... Cowboys QB Tony Romo makes 50th career start (36-13). He has 12,924 career yards passing, 16 shy of surpassing Peyton Manning for fourth in league history for most through 50 starts. His 93 TDs are third most behind Dan Marino (116) and Kurt Warner (102) for 50 games. ... Dallas has won three consecutive Thanksgiving Day games. Only longer holiday streak was six in row from 1980-85. ... Cowboys LT Flozell Adams has seven blocked kicks in his career (four PATs, three field goals). Three blocks have come on Thanksgiving Day (field goals in 1999 and 2002, and PAT in 2003). ... LB Anthony Spencer, former first-round pick who replaced Ellis in lineup, has 27 tackles over last four games, and his interception in closing minutes helped clinch last week's victory over Washington.

Lumi · Nov 26, 2009

Lumi · Nov 26, 2009

NFL Capsules: NY Giants at Denver

NFL Capsules: NY Giants at Denver

NFL Capsules: NY Giants at Denver

NEW YORK GIANTS (6-4) At DENVER (6-4)8:20 p.m. ET, NFL Network
OPENING LINE - Giants by 5

RECORD VS. SPREAD - New York 4-6; Denver 6-4

SERIES RECORD - Giants lead 6-4

LAST MEETING - Giants beat Broncos 24-23, Oct. 23, 2005

LAST WEEK - Giants beat Falcons 34-31; Broncos lost to Chargers 32-3

GIANTS OFFENSE - OVERALL (4), RUSH (7), PASS (8)

GIANTS DEFENSE - OVERALL (2), RUSH (11), PASS (2)

BRONCOS OFFENSE - OVERALL (22), RUSH (16), PASS (19)

BRONCOS DEFENSE - OVERALL (7), RUSH (18) PASS (3)

STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - Last time teams met, QB Eli Manning threw 2-yard TD pass to WR Amani Toomer with 5 seconds left to seal Giants' 24-23 win. ... Giants have won six straight OT games, including '07 NFC championship at Green Bay. ... Manning is coming off career-best 384 yards passing with three TDs and 111.5 passer rating in last week's overtime win over Atlanta. ... Giants WR Steve Smith is second in NFC with 65 catches and 798 yards. ... Giants haven't played on Thanksgiving since 1992. ... Broncos are playing first Thanksgiving game at home since 1963 against Raiders. ... RB Knowshon Moreno leads NFL rookies with 600 yards rushing. He's averaged 6.3 yards a carry in his last two games. ... Broncos LB Elvis Dumervil's 12 sacks are tied for league lead and he needs one more to surpass career high of 12 1/2 sacks in '07. ... Champ Bailey ranks first among NFL CBs with 44 INTs since '99. ... S Brian Dawkins has five career INTs against Giants. He injured neck last week against San Diego but plans to play Thursday. ... Broncos let emotions get best of them vs. Chargers as they committed nine penalties to San Diego's one, including personal fouls on two extra points. Denver coach Josh McDaniels had heated exchange with some Chargers linebackers during warmups. ... Broncos are playing Thursday night game for fifth straight season. ... QB Kyle Orton's 18-3 home record as starter is tops in league since 1970 AFL-NFL merger. He didn't start last week because of sprained ankle, replaced Chris Simms in second quarter after Simms was sacked twice on five drop-backs. ... Broncos expecting to get RT Ryan Harris back after three-week absence with toe injury. His replacement, Tyler Polumbus, whiffed on OLB Shaun Phillips last week, allowing sack and forced fumble.

Lumi · Nov 26, 2009

Key Performance Information

NY GIANTS

AS A FAVORITE OF 3.5 TO 9.5 PTS
This season
SU: 4-2 | ATS: 3-3 Last 3 seaons
SU: 16-7 | ATS: 14-9 Since 1993
SU: 55-23 | ATS: 41-36
IN ALL GAMES
This season
SU: 6-4 | ATS: 5-5 Last 3 seaons
SU: 32-15 | ATS: 31-16 Since 1993
SU: 155-140 | ATS: 154-134
WHEN PLAYING ON A THURSDAY
This season
SU: 0-0 | ATS: 0-0 Last 3 seaons
SU: 1-0 | ATS: 1-0 Since 1993
SU: 2-1 | ATS: 3-0
WHEN PLAYING WITH 6 OR LESS DAYS REST
This season
SU: 4-4 | ATS: 4-4 Last 3 seaons
SU: 24-11 | ATS: 24-11 Since 1993
SU: 123-100 | ATS: 119-100
AGAINST AFC WEST DIVISION OPPONENTS
This season
SU: 2-1 | ATS: 2-1 Last 3 seaons
SU: 2-1 | ATS: 2-1 Since 1993
SU: 12-11 | ATS: 11-11
IN GAMES PLAYED ON A GRASS FIELD
This season
SU: 5-3 | ATS: 4-4 Last 3 seaons
SU: 25-11 | ATS: 23-13 Since 1993
SU: 88-81 | ATS: 83-83
IN NOVEMBER GAMES
This season
SU: 1-2 | ATS: 0-3 Last 3 seaons
SU: 7-4 | ATS: 6-5 Since 1993
SU: 30-43 | ATS: 26-44
IN NON-CONFERENCE GAMES
This season
SU: 2-1 | ATS: 2-1 Last 3 seaons
SU: 9-3 | ATS: 8-4 Since 1993
SU: 37-36 | ATS: 37-34
WHEN PLAYING AGAINST A TEAM WITH A WINNING RECORD
This season
SU: 1-4 | ATS: 0-5 Last 3 seaons
SU: 13-10 | ATS: 14-9 Since 1993
SU: 49-74 | ATS: 61-59
WHEN PLAYING AGAINST A TEAM WITH A WINNING RECORD IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE SEASON
This season
SU: 1-0 | ATS: 0-1 Last 3 seaons
SU: 11-6 | ATS: 12-5 Since 1993
SU: 30-55 | ATS: 40-43
IN WEEKS 10 THROUGH 13
This season
SU: 1-0 | ATS: 0-1 Last 3 seaons
SU: 7-2 | ATS: 6-3 Since 1993
SU: 24-42 | ATS: 23-40
IN ALL LINED GAMES
This season
SU: 6-4 | ATS: 5-5 Last 3 seaons
SU: 32-15 | ATS: 31-16 Since 1993
SU: 155-140 | ATS: 154-134
AS A FAVORITE
This season
SU: 5-3 | ATS: 4-4 Last 3 seaons
SU: 21-9 | ATS: 18-12 Since 1993
SU: 94-50 | ATS: 73-68
AS A ROAD FAVORITE OF 3.5 TO 7 PTS
This season
SU: 1-0 | ATS: 1-0 Last 3 seaons
SU: 3-0 | ATS: 3-0 Since 1993
SU: 7-3 | ATS: 6-4
IN ROAD GAMES
This season
SU: 3-2 | ATS: 3-2 Last 3 seaons
SU: 17-6 | ATS: 18-5 Since 1993
SU: 72-72 | ATS: 81-61
IN ROAD LINED GAMES
This season
SU: 3-2 | ATS: 3-2 Last 3 seaons
SU: 17-6 | ATS: 18-5 Since 1993
SU: 72-72 | ATS: 81-61
IN A ROAD GAME WHERE THE TOTAL IS BETWEEN 42.5 AND 45 PTS
This season
SU: 2-1 | ATS: 2-1 Last 3 seaons
SU: 5-3 | ATS: 5-3 Since 1993
SU: 15-10 | ATS: 16-9
IN ALL GAMES WHERE THE TOTAL IS BETWEEN 42.5 AND 49 PTS
This season
SU: 4-4 | ATS: 3-5 Last 3 seaons
SU: 16-9 | ATS: 14-11 Since 1993
SU: 38-33 | ATS: 40-29

Lumi · Nov 26, 2009

Key Performance Information

DENVER

AS AN UNDERDOG OF 3.5 TO 9.5 PTS
This season
SU: 1-2 | ATS: 1-2 Last 3 seaons
SU: 4-6 | ATS: 4-6 Since 1993
SU: 16-29 | ATS: 23-22
IN ALL GAMES
This season
SU: 6-4 | ATS: 6-4 Last 3 seaons
SU: 21-21 | ATS: 15-27 Since 1993
SU: 176-120 | ATS: 140-144
AFTER 2 OR MORE CONSECUTIVE LOSSES
This season
SU: 0-2 | ATS: 0-2 Last 3 seaons
SU: 5-5 | ATS: 5-5 Since 1993
SU: 22-17 | ATS: 21-18
WHEN PLAYING AGAINST A TEAM WITH A WINNING RECORD
This season
SU: 2-2 | ATS: 2-2 Last 3 seaons
SU: 8-8 | ATS: 7-9 Since 1993
SU: 68-57 | ATS: 67-55
WHEN PLAYING AGAINST A TEAM WITH A WINNING RECORD IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE SEASON
This season
SU: 0-1 | ATS: 0-1 Last 3 seaons
SU: 4-3 | ATS: 4-3 Since 1993
SU: 40-37 | ATS: 39-35
IN WEEKS 10 THROUGH 13
This season
SU: 0-2 | ATS: 0-2 Last 3 seaons
SU: 5-5 | ATS: 5-5 Since 1993
SU: 41-26 | ATS: 31-34
IN ALL LINED GAMES
This season
SU: 6-4 | ATS: 6-4 Last 3 seaons
SU: 21-21 | ATS: 15-27 Since 1993
SU: 176-120 | ATS: 140-144
AS AN UNDERDOG
This season
SU: 4-3 | ATS: 4-3 Last 3 seaons
SU: 10-11 | ATS: 10-11 Since 1993
SU: 37-57 | ATS: 48-41
AS A HOME UNDERDOG OF 3.5 TO 7 PTS
This season
SU: 0-1 | ATS: 0-1 Last 3 seaons
SU: 1-1 | ATS: 1-1 Since 1993
SU: 3-1 | ATS: 3-1
IN HOME GAMES
This season
SU: 3-2 | ATS: 3-2 Last 3 seaons
SU: 12-9 | ATS: 7-14 Since 1993
SU: 106-41 | ATS: 72-72
IN HOME LINED GAMES
This season
SU: 3-2 | ATS: 3-2 Last 3 seaons
SU: 12-9 | ATS: 7-14 Since 1993
SU: 106-41 | ATS: 72-72
IN A HOME GAME WHERE THE TOTAL IS BETWEEN 42.5 AND 45 PTS
This season
SU: 1-0 | ATS: 1-0 Last 3 seaons
SU: 1-3 | ATS: 1-3 Since 1993
SU: 29-9 | ATS: 19-18
IN ALL GAMES WHERE THE TOTAL IS BETWEEN 42.5 AND 49 PTS
This season
SU: 2-1 | ATS: 2-1 Last 3 seaons
SU: 6-14 | ATS: 4-16 Since 1993
SU: 86-47 | ATS: 68-60
WHEN PLAYING ON A THURSDAY
This season
SU: 0-0 | ATS: 0-0 Last 3 seaons
SU: 1-1 | ATS: 1-1 Since 1993
SU: 3-2 | ATS: 2-3
WHEN PLAYING WITH 6 OR LESS DAYS REST
This season
SU: 4-2 | ATS: 4-2 Last 3 seaons
SU: 14-15 | ATS: 9-20 Since 1993
SU: 128-85 | ATS: 95-107
AGAINST NFC EAST DIVISION OPPONENTS
This season
SU: 1-1 | ATS: 1-1 Last 3 seaons
SU: 1-1 | ATS: 1-1 Since 1993
SU: 13-9 | ATS: 13-9
OFF A DIVISION GAME
This season
SU: 1-1 | ATS: 1-1 Last 3 seaons
SU: 9-4 | ATS: 6-7 Since 1993
SU: 73-48 | ATS: 59-55
IN GAMES PLAYED ON A GRASS FIELD
This season
SU: 5-4 | ATS: 5-4 Last 3 seaons
SU: 18-18 | ATS: 13-23 Since 1993
SU: 150-94 | ATS: 116-118
IN NOVEMBER GAMES
This season
SU: 0-4 | ATS: 0-4 Last 3 seaons
SU: 5-8 | ATS: 5-8 Since 1993
SU: 46-25 | ATS: 34-35
IN NON-CONFERENCE GAMES
This season
SU: 1-1 | ATS: 1-1 Last 3 seaons
SU: 5-5 | ATS: 3-7 Since 1993
SU: 41-31 | ATS: 32-38
OFF A LOSS AGAINST A DIVISION RIVAL
This season
SU: 0-0 | ATS: 0-0 Last 3 seaons
SU: 5-0 | ATS: 4-1 Since 1993
SU: 28-17 | ATS: 26-17

Lumi · Nov 26, 2009

dunkel index 26 NOV 09

dunkel index 26 NOV 09

Today's NFL Picks
Green Bay at Detroit
The Packers look to build on their 9-4 ATS record in their last 13 games as a road favorite. Green Bay is the pick (-11) according to Dunkel, which has the Packers favored by 14 1/2.

Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-11). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 26
Time Posted: 11:30 p.m. EST (11/25)

Game 103-104: Green Bay at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 132.898; Detroit 118.183
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 14 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 11; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-11); Under

Game 105-106: Oakland at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 123.187; Dallas 137.441
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 14 1/2; 37
Vegas Line: Dallas by 13 1/2; 40
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-13 1/2); Under

Game 107-108: NY Giants at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 131.398; Denver 134.088
Dunkel Line: Denver by 2 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 6 1/2; 42
Dunkel Pick: Denver (+6 1/2); Over

Betone · Nov 26, 2009

Thanks for all the info you share on this board!!!! Wishing you a happy Turkey day:00x1

Lumi · Nov 26, 2009

NFL Preview - Green Bay (6-4) at Detroit (2-8)

NFL Preview - Green Bay (6-4) at Detroit (2-8)

NFL Preview - Green Bay (6-4) at Detroit (2-8)

Perhaps winning the football game shouldn't be the main directive for the Detroit Lions on Thursday afternoon.

Maybe, when the Green Bay Packers visit the Motor City, the Lions' first goal should simply be to avoid embarrassment on their marquee Thanksgiving Day showcase.

The Lions have lost five straight on the holiday, with all five defeats coming by double-digits. Detroit was a 47-10 loser against Tennessee on the holiday last season, and has also suffered defeats of 11, 17, 20, and 32 points since last winning on Thanksgiving back in 2003.

That day, the Lions were 22-14 winners over the Packers, and it is that more positive slice of history that Jim Schwartz's club will be trying to replicate as they kick off the Week 12 schedule.

Detroit comes into Thursday's contest basking in the glow of what has become an ultra-rare winning moment for the franchise, though there is a shadow somewhat obscuring that ray of sunshine.

Rookie quarterback and No. 1 overall draft pick Matthew Stafford, who became the first NFL rookie in 72 years to throw five touchdown passes in a game when he led the Lions to a thrilling 38-37 victory over the Cleveland Browns on Sunday, is unlikely to play against the Packers after suffering a shoulder injury late in that contest.

Stafford's injury means veteran Daunte Culpepper is likely to make his second straight Thanksgiving Day start, and Culpepper can only hope that this outing goes better than last year's.

Against the Titans, Culpepper was 13-of-26 for just 134 yards with a touchdown and an interception, as Detroit fell into a 35-10 halftime hole. Culpepper is 0-7 as the Lions' starter over the past two seasons, including a 26-0 loss the Packers in his most recent outing this season, and hasn't won a game he's opened since leading the Raiders to a victory over the Chiefs on Nov. 25, 2007.

Seeking to extend the misery for the quarterback and his team will be Green Bay, which also enters Week 12 in a good news/bad news situation.

The Packers have improved their playoff prospects with credible back-to-back victories over the Cowboys (17-7) and 49ers (30-24), but in Sunday's win over San Francisco lost two lynch pins of a defense that had helped fuel those wins.

Outside linebacker Aaron Kampman - a two-time Pro Bowler and the team's best pass rusher over the past four seasons - and physical veteran cornerback Al Harris were both lost for the season due to knee injuries suffered against the 49ers.

The Lions will be looking to exploit that factor as the Niners did in cutting a 23-3 deficit to six points late in last week's contest, and the absences will place more pressure on Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay offense.

Rodgers was 32-of-45 for 344 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions against San Francisco, his third 300-yard game of the season and first since tossing for a season-high 358 yards against Detroit on Oct. 18th.

Green Bay is 12-18-1 all-time on Thanksgiving.

SERIES HISTORY

The series between the Lions and Packers dates back to the 1930 season, with Green Bay holding a 87-64-7 regular season edge. The Pack has won eight straight and 10 of the last 11 in the series, including the aforementioned 26-0 home win in Week 6, and a 48-25 triumph in their trip to Ford Field in Week 2 of last season.

Detroit's last victory over Green Bay came by a 17-3 count in Week 1 of the 2005 campaign in the Motor City.

In addition to the regular season series, the clubs have met twice in the postseason, with Green Bay winning NFC First-Round Playoff matchups in the 1993 and 1994 seasons.

Packers head coach Mike McCarthy is 7-0 in his career against the Lions, while Detroit's Schwartz is 0-1 against both McCarthy and Green Bay as a head coach.

WHEN THE PACKERS HAVE THE BALL

One of the top issues for Green Bay as it heads to Detroit is finishing off drives, something the Packers did poorly against the Lions back in Week 6. The Pack rolled up 435 yards of total offense and held the ball for more than 40 of the game's 60 minutes, but scored just two touchdowns, none after halftime. As mentioned, Rodgers (2788 passing yards, 19 TD, 5 INT) comes off a fine passing day against the 49ers, one in which wideout Greg Jennings (43 receptions, 3 TD) had a long-awaited big game with five catches for a season-high 126 yards and a touchdown. Fellow WR Donald Driver (46 receptions, 4 TD), who has been the team's most reliable pass-catcher this season, was held to five grabs totaling 40 yards on the day, but tight end Jermichael Finley (24 receptions, 1 TD) and wideout Jordy Nelson (14 receptions, 2 TD) helped pick up the slack. Finley had a career-high seven catches totaling 54 yards in the loss, and Nelson scored his second touchdown of the year. Green Bay running back Ryan Grant (829 rushing yards, 5 TD, 20 receptions) comes off just his second 100-yard game of the season, a 21-carry, 129-yard effort that included a touchdown. The Packers are last in the league in sacks allowed (43) and fourth-down conversion percentage (16.7), but have committed the fewest turnovers in the league (8) and lead the NFL in turnover margin (+14).

Though Detroit did manage its second win of the Schwartz era last week, the team's struggling defense came up with few answers in the victory. After surrendering 37 points and 439 yards to what was the worst offense in the league entering the day, the Lions are now last in the league in scoring defense (30.1 points per game), passing defense (275.3 yards per game), opponents' completion percentage (70.4), and are tied for last in interceptions recorded (6) along with the Browns and Redskins. Complicating matters for Detroit are injuries that place the status of safeties Kalvin Pearson (hamstring) and Ko Simpson (knee), linebacker Ernie Sims (hamstring), and defensive end Dewayne White (toe) in doubt as the team embarks on a short week. Cornerbacks Phillip Buchanon (29 tackles) and William James (37 tackles, 1 INT) will be among those responsible for slowing the Green Bay receivers, with safety Louis Delmas (55 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) among those helping over the top. Outside linebacker Julian Peterson (44 tackles, 3.5 sacks), who had two-and-a-half sacks of Rodgers in Week 6, will be seeking a repeat performance on Thursday. A Lions squad that ranks 20th in the league against the run (116.2 yards per game) will lean hard on top run-stopper Larry Foote (71 tackles, 2 sacks) and fellow linebacker DeAndre Levy (47 tackles, 1 INT). Foote had a game-high 12 tackles and Detroit's only sack against Cleveland last Sunday.

WHEN THE LIONS HAVE THE BALL

The Lions come off a week in which they piled up 473 yards of total offense, a suggestion that the team was turning the corner on that side of the ball, but the Stafford injury could put the brakes on that progress. Making matters worse are hand and knee injuries to top wideout Calvin Johnson (39 receptions, 2 TD), which place the talented receiver's status in doubt one week after he caught seven balls for a season-high 161 yards and a touchdown. Probable starter Culpepper (384 passing yards, 1 TD, 2 INT), who carries a season passer rating of 66.9 into Thursday's contest, could have to rely on wideouts Bryant Johnson (24 receptions, 2 TD) and Dennis Northcutt (26 receptions, 1 TD), along with tight end Brandon Pettigrew (29 receptions, 2 TD), if he wishes to engineer the upset. The rookie Pettigrew made a big impact against the Browns with six catches for 72 yards, including the game-winning touchdown with no time remaining on the clock. In the running game, Kevin Smith (560 rushing yards, 33 receptions, 4 TD) is still seeking his first 100-yard rushing effort since September, but last week hauled in four balls for 104 yards and a touchdown as a pass-catcher. Detroit has thrown a league-high-tying 18 interceptions on the season, a total Culpepper will be trying not to add to, and the club's 30 sacks allowed are also near the bottom of the league.

Packers defensive coordinator Dom Capers is in search of sandbags to stem the tide of injuries that the team is contending with at the moment. In addition to the loss of Kampman and Harris for the year, Pro Bowl cornerback Charles Woodson (hip) and 2009 sacks leader Cullen Jenkins (ankle) are both dealing with injuries that have them considered questionable heading into Week 12. In the secondary, the team will need players like cornerbacks Tramon Williams (23 tackles, 1 INT) and Jarrett Bush (8 tackles) to take on an increased role, with safeties Nick Collins (31 tackles, 3 INT, 1 sack) and Derrick Martin (18 tackles) helping out over the top. In the pass rushing game, it is time for first-round pick and outside linebacker Clay Matthews (27 tackles, 4 sacks) to begin living up to his promise. The most stable area of the team at the moment, given the injuries elsewhere, is in the run-stopping game where inside linebackers Nick Barnett (61 tackles, 3 sacks) and A.J. Hawk (50 tackles, 1 sack), along with linemen B.J. Raji (13 tackles, 1 sack) and Johnny Jolly (26 tackles, 1 INT), are pacing a unit that is fourth in NFL rushing defense (90.7 yards per game). The first-round rookie Raji posted his first career sack last week against a 49ers team that rushed the ball just 10 times.

FANTASY FOCUS

Rodgers has taken some heat for getting sacked a lot this year, but the former first-rounder rarely turns the ball over and is a regular contributor to fantasy lineups. He's a must-start against the Lions, as are Jennings and Driver, his top two targets. Now healthy, Finley is well worth considering at the tight end position, and Grant - who comes off a 100-yard week - is a solid play as well against a suspect Detroit defense. Even against the Lions, the Packers defense is a shaky start given the team's injury problems, but kicker Mason Crosby may be worth using.

Stafford would have been an intriguing play this week for the Lions had he not suffered the injury, but his replacement, Culpepper, holds less appeal. If he's healthy, the same cannot be said for Calvin Johnson, who finally looks to be living up to his fantasy promise, and the rookie Pettigrew, who seems to be developing into a useful tight end. Kevin Smith had over 100 receiving yards and a touchdown against the Browns, but that type of production has been the exception rather than the rule for the back. Detroit kicker Jason Hanson has a long history of Thanksgiving Day production, but don't count on him getting as many chances as he did last week, when he had a field goal and five points- after.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

The Lions may win another game or two this season, but their need for a major comeback against a horrible Browns team last Sunday should show that they are a long way from beating a quality opponent. The second major injury to Stafford this season isn't going to help matters any on offense, and the defense had trouble slowing a Cleveland attack that was last in the league in a number of categories just five days ago. The Packers, meanwhile, may not be perfect, and the injuries to Kampman and Harris are troubling indeed, but Green Bay is still light years better than Detroit, and will score enough points to extend the Lions' Thanksgiving Day misery by another year.

Predicted Outcome: Packers 37, Lions 20

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