THE CNOTES COLLEGE FOOTBALL 2020-2021 SEASON NEWS,TRENDS, PICKS !

[Cnotes53]

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 24

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

HAW at HOU 03:30 PM

HOU -8.0

U 59.0

 

[Cnotes53]

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

12/24/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
12/23/2020 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
12/22/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
12/19/2020 13-16-1 45.00% -2300 Detail
12/18/2020 2-5-1 31.25% -1750
12/12/2020 11-11-1 50.00% -550 Detail
12/11/2020 6-0-0 100.00% +3000 Detail
12/10/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
12/06/2020 2-2-0 100.00% -1.00 Detail
12/05/2020 29-21-0 58.00% +29.50 Detail
12/03/2020 3-1-0 75.00% +9.50 Detail

Totals...........71-65-3.....52.20%....-2.50

 

[Cnotes53]

Friday?s 6-pack
Some interesting college football bowl spreads:
? Iowa (-14.5) vs Missouri
? Florida (-3) vs Oklahoma
? West Virginia (-7) vs Army
? Tulsa (-2.5) vs Mississippi State
? San Jose State (-8.5) vs Ball State
? TCU (-5.5) vs Arkansas

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 328,481
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.

Quote of the Day
?I basically said the interest I would have is to do it right and everybody has their own version of what right is, for me, is complete control of my staff and all those things that go with it. I think maybe that was a hinderance. Once again, how far did we get down the path I won?t really say because I?m happy at UAB and this is where I?m at.?
UAB coach Bill Clark, on why Auburn didn?t hire him as their coach

Friday?s quiz
In the movie Draft Day, where Kevin Costner is GM of the Cleveland Browns, what actor plays the coach of the Browns?

Thursday?s quiz
Coming into this season, Stephen Curry had the all-time career-best free-throw %age in the NBA (90.6%)

Wednesday?s quiz
Last time a team won back-to-back NBA titles was 2016-2018, when Golden State won both years.

**************************

Friday?s Den: Merry Christmas, everyone??.

13) NFL playoffs were expanded to 14 teams this year, so only the #1 seed in each conference gets a bye; over the last seven years, of the 14 teams to make the Super Bowl, 10 were one-seeds and four were 2-seeds. Having the bye has obviously been an advantage.

12) Last five years, teams that had the first round by e were 12-7-1 ATS on the second weekend, which was their first playoff game that year.

11) Over last three years, underdogs are 8-2-1 ATS on first weekend of the playoffs; one game was pick ?em.

10) 2012 Ravens are last Super Bowl champ that didn?t have a first round bye.

9) Underdogs are 12-7 ATS in last 19 Super Bowls, though favorites covered the last two.

8) Baseball doings:
? Pirates traded 1B Josh Bell to Washington, for two young pitchers.
? Detroit signed free agent pitcher Jose Urena.

7) Atlanta Hawks led Chicago 83-59 at halftime Wednesday; are the Hawks that good, or are the Bulls terrible? (With Billy Donovan coaching, they won?t be bad for very long).

6) Charlotte Hornets C Cody Zeller broke his left hand Thursday, is out 4-6 weeks.

5) Pitt Panthers? best player, Justin Champagnie, is out 6-8 weeks hurting his knee in practice this week. Pitt is off to 5-2 start, 1-1 in ACC games.

4) Hawai?i 28, Houston 14:
? Rainbows picked off three passes, jumped out to a 21-0 lead.
? After Houston but the lead to 21-14, Rainbows ran a kick back for a TD, sealing the deal.
? This was Hawai?i?s first bowl on the mainland since the Sugar Bowl after the ?08 season.

3) Wednesday?s UCLA-Oregon basketball game was postponed, not because any players or coaches had COVID, but because of COVID-19 testing protocols for the refs.

2) Tampa Bay Buccaneers haven?t scored a first quarter point in their last four games; they signed QB Drew Stanton to their practice squad, replacing the departed Josh Rosen. Stanton was with Bruce Arians in Arizona; he knows the offense.

1) Way back when, when Steve Alford was a great college player at Indiana, I was convinced that someday, he would be coach of the Hoosiers. His dad was a high school coach in Indiana, it just made sense that someday, Steve Alford would run the Hoosiers, but it hasn?t happened.

This is a goofy idea, but Indiana/Nevada should trade coaches; Indiana is 26-33 under Archie Miller in conference games, not very good. Alford has gone from Missouri State to Iowa to New Mexico to UCLA to Nevada- he?s made four Sweet 16?s, but no Elite 8?s.

Alford is 25-15 at Nevada, while totally remaking the roster after Eric Musselman left; it would be good theater if got to come home and coach Indiana.

 

[Cnotes53]

MARSHALL vs. BUFFALO
Both had unbeaten runs ended late in 2020, UB against Ball State in MAC title game.
Bulls were 4-1 vs. line prior, and even with loss to Cards.
Lance Leipold 30-14-2 vs. spread since late 2016.
UB also 8-3-1 as dog since 2017, and Leipold 1-1 SU and vs. line in bowls.
Bulls also on 18-7 ?over? run since mid 2018.
Herd dropped 3 of last 4 vs. line TY, but had won seven bowls in a row SU (the last six of those for Doc Holliday) before getting blown out by UCF in Gasparilla Bowl LY.
Marshall also on 16-8 ?over? run.

Tech Edge: ?Over? and Buffalo, based on ?totals? and team trends.


***************************

279MARSHALL -280 BUFFALO
MARSHALL is 14-3 ATS (10.7 Units) in road games vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return since 1992.


*********************************


Dec 25

Camellia Bowl (Montgomery, AL)
Marshall (7-2) vs Buffalo (5-1)
? Marshall lost last two games 20-0/22-13 after a 7-0 start.
? Thundering Herd hasn?t played away from home since October 17.
? Marshall has 9 starters back on offense, 4 starters back on defense.
? Thundering Herd have 126 returning starts on the offensive line.
? Marshall has a redshirt freshman QB with nine career starts.
? Thundering Herd is 10-3 ATS in last 13 games as an under dog (1-0 TY).
? Marshall is 12-3 in bowls; they lost 48-25 to UCF last year.

? Buffalo lost MAC title game 38-28 after a 5-0 regular season.
? Star RB Patterson (1,072 YR) got hurt last game, is expected to play here.
? Buffalo has 8 starters back on offense, 7 starters back on defense.
? Bulls have 82 returning starts on the offensive line.
? Buffalo has a soph QB with 11 career starts.
? Bulls are 19-9-1 ATS in last 29 games as a favorite.
? Buffalo is 1-3 in bowls; they beat Charlotte 31-9 LY.

 

[Cnotes53]

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 25
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

MRSH at BUFF 02:30 PM

MRSH +6.5

O 53.5

 

[Cnotes53]

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

12/25/2020 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
12/24/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
12/23/2020 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
12/22/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
12/19/2020 13-16-1 45.00% -2300 Detail
12/18/2020 2-5-1 31.25% -1750
12/12/2020 11-11-1 50.00% -550 Detail
12/11/2020 6-0-0 100.00% +3000 Detail
12/10/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
12/06/2020 2-2-0 100.00% -1.00 Detail
12/05/2020 29-21-0 58.00% +29.50 Detail
12/03/2020 3-1-0 75.00% +9.50 Detail

Totals...........71-67-3.....51.44%....-13.50

 

[Cnotes53]

Saturday?s 6-pack
Six most experienced teams in college basketball this year:
6) Georgia Tech
5) Nicholls State
4) North Carolina Central
3) Detroit Mercy
2) Cal-Bakersfield
1) Eastern Illinois

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 329,792
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.

Quote of the Day
?This is a bad defense. The worst one I?ve ever had.?
Vikings? coach Mike Zimmer

Saturday?s quiz
Stan Kroenke owns the Los Angeles Rams; which NBA team does he own?

Friday?s quiz
In the movie Draft Day, where Kevin Costner is GM of the Cleveland Browns, Denis Leary plays the coach of the Browns.

Thursday?s quiz
Coming into this season, Stephen Curry had the all-time career-best free-throw %age in the NBA (90.6%)

****************************

Saturday?s Den: Random stuff with the weekend here??.

13) New Orleans 52, Minnesota 33
? Vikings lost four of last six games; they?ve been eliminated.
? Minnesota is 0-6 ATS in their last six games.
? Minnesota allowed 32.2 ppg in its last six games.
? Minnesota is 9-14-1 ATS in last 24 games as a road dog.

? New Orleans had 36 first downs, ran ball for 264 yards.
? Kamara is first player since 1929 to rush for six TD?s in a game.
? Saints are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games.
? New Orleans clinched NFC South title for 4th year in a row.

12) Troy Aikman was saying on TV how tackling in the NFL has gotten a lot worse, because teams don?t practice much in pads anymore, because of the collective bargaining agreement. Like any other skill, tackling takes practice.

11) Friday was the 50th anniversary of the Miami-Kansas City playoff game that went to double OT, the longest game in NFL history. Dolphins won 27-24; there were 16 future Hall of Famers in that game.

There were a total of 149 plays in that game; 61 passes, 87 runs, one sack. The game has changed a lot over the last fifty years.

10) Favorites covered five of the first seven college bowl games this fall; five of the seven games stayed under the total.

9) There are four unbeaten hoop teams in the SEC:
? Arkansas is 8-0, all home games, vs schedule #296.
? Missouri is 6-0, with 4 home games, vs schedule #54
? Tennessee is 6-0, all home games, vs schedule #244.
? Georgia is is 7-0, all home games, vs schedule #282.

Tough to project which of these teams will wind up the best, but Tennessee/Missouri would appear to be the favorites there- they?ve been tested more so far.

8) Wisconsin 85, Michigan State 76:
? Badgers start five seniors, only play eight guys. Their future is now.
? Wisconsin was 23-30 on line in this game, Spartans 14-16.

7) Western Carolina is off to a 7-2 start in basketball; coached my Mark Prosser, son of the late Wake Forest coach Skip Prosser, the Catamounts have already won four overtime games- their last three wins have all come in OT.

6) Purdue 73, Maryland 70:
? Terps never led in a game that was tied in last minute.
? Purdue was 10-22 on the arc; Maryland had only five turnovers.

5) it is a pleasure to listen to NBA games with Mark Jackson/Jeff Van Gundy as analysts; it is like eavesdropping on two friends talking ball. To me, that is the ultimate compliment when you?re talking about game analysts.

4) Nets 123, Celtics 95:
? Brooklyn won its first two games by 26-28 points.
? Steve Nash is going to think this coaching stuff is easy.

3) Golden State Warriors lost their first two games this season by 26-39 points, not a good sign that they?re any better than last year?s 15-50 disaster.

From 2013-19, Golden State averaged 62.2 wins a year. Now? Not so much.

2) Warriors have a player named Marquese Chriss; at age 23, he?s done a lot of moving:
2014-15: Pleasant Grove HS, Elk Grove, CA
2015-16: U of Washington, scored 13.7 ppg in 24.9 mpg.
2016-17: scored 9.2 ppg in all 82 games for the Phoenix Suns.
2017-18: scored 7.7 ppg in 77 games for the Suns.
2018-19: split season between Houston/Cleveland, scored 4.3 ppg in 11.6 mpg
2019-20: scored 9.3 ppg in 59 games for Golden State

At 6-foot-9, Chriss has a chance to eventually make himself a lot of money, but he needs to lock himself inside a gym and become a shooting threat. He has the ability; will he do the work?

1) Miami 111, New Orleans 98:
? Miami G Duncan Robinson scored 23 points in this game, made 7-13 3-pointers.

? Robinson started his college career a D-III Williams, before transferring to Michigan. The odds of a D-III player making it to the NBA are very, very long. He has an interesting story.

If Duncan Robinson can make a living in the NBA, Marquese Chriss should also be able to.

 

[Cnotes53]

LIBERTY vs. COASTAL CAROLINA
Teams were scheduled to meet on Dec. 5.
Coastal 8-2-1 vs. line this season, though Liberty enters with seven covers in a row.
Flames also 3-0 as dog in 2020, and 6-1 last seven getting points.

Tech Edge: Slight to Liberty, based on team trends.

UL-LAFAYETTE vs. UTSA
Cajuns covered last three in 2020 but that only got them to 5-5 vs. number this season.
ULL just 1-2 laying points away from Cajun Field TY, and 1-4 last five in role.
Also no covers last two years in bowls for Napier.
Roadrunners 4-2 as dog this season for Traylor, now 9-3 last 12 in role.
Cajuns ?under? 7-3 in 2020, UTSA ?under? 8-3 this season.

Tech Edge: UTSA and ?under,? based on team and ?totals? trends.

WESTERN KENTUCKY vs. GEORGIA STATE
Tops covered last two in 2020 but were 1-8-2 vs. line in preceding 11 games.
WKU 2-3-1 as dog TY and Helton was 6-2 in role LY.
GSU covered last three TY and was 3-1 vs. spread outside Atlanta.
Rematch of 2017 Cure Bowl won by GSU 27-17!


****************************


283LIBERTY -284 COASTAL CAROLINA
COASTAL CAROLINA is 6-0 ATS (6 Units) off a conference game in the current season.

285LA LAFAYETTE -286 UTSA
LA LAFAYETTE is 43-23 ATS (17.7 Units) in road games after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers since 1992.


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Bowl Games

Dec 26

First Responder Bowl, Dallas
Louisiana (9-1) vs Texas-San Antonio (7-4)
? Louisiana won its last six games, scoring 38.2 ppg.
? ULL?s only loss was 30-27 at home to Coastal October 14.
? Cajuns won all six road games, also scoring 38.2 ppg.
? Cajuns have 7 starters back on offense, 7 starters back on defense.
? Louisiana has 106 returning starts on the offensive line.
? Cajuns have a senior QB with 28 career starts.
? Louisiana is 3-5 ATS as a favorite TY, 2-4 when laying double digits.
? In its history, ULL has won five of seven bowl games.

? UTSA coach Traylor tested positive for COVID, will likely miss this game.
? Roadrunners won their last three games, scoring 41.3 ppg.
? UTSA ran ball for 229+ yards in five of its seven wins.
? Roadrunners have 8 starters back on offense, 5 starters back on defense.
? UTSA has 67 returning starts on the offensive line.
? Roadrunners have a junior QB with 15 career starts.
? UTSA ia 4-2 ATS when getting points this season.
? UTSA?s only previous bowl game was a 23-20 (+9) loss at New Mexico in the New Mexico Bowl four years ago.

LendingTree Bowl, Mobile, AL
Western Kentucky (5-6) vs Georgia State (5-4)
? WKU won its last three games; they allowed 11.8 ppg last four games.
? Hilltoppers held five of last five opponents under 310 TY.
? Hilltoppers have 7 starters back on offense, 9 starters back on defense.
? WKU has 102 returning starts on the offensive line.
? Hilltoppers? senior QB has started 18 games, 7 of them at Maryland.
? WKU is 2-3 ATS this year, in games with a single digit spread.
? Hilltoppers scored 38-37 points in last two games, only times this year they scored more than 24 points.
? WKU won four of its last five bowl games.

? Georgia State scored 31+ points in seven of nine games.
? Georgia State its 0-2 this season scoring fewer than 31.
? Panthers won three of their last four games.
? GSU has 8 starters back on offense, 8 starters back on defense.
? Panthers have 87 returning starts on the offensive line.
? Georgia State?s redshirt freshman QB has started nine games.
? Panthers are 4-2 ATS this year in games with a single digit spread.
? Georgia State lost two of its three bowls; they were underdog in all three.

? Georgia State (+6.5) upset WKU 27-17 in the Cure Bowl, three years ago.

Mortgage Cure Bowl, Orlando
Liberty (9-1) vs Coastal Carolina (11-0)
? Liberty?s only loss was 15-14 at NC State; they had a FG blocked at the end.
? Flames scored 30+ points in eight of ten games.
? Liberty beat two ACC teams (Syracuse/Virginia Tech).
? Flames have 5 starters back on offense, 4 starters back on defense.
? Liberty has 96 returning starts on the offensive line.
? Liberty?s junior QB is an Auburn transfer; he has started 10 games.
? Flames are 3-0 ATS as an underdog this season.
? Liberty (+5) beat Georgia Southern 23-16 in this bowl LY, their first-ever bowl.

? Coastal won its last two games by total of nine points.
? Chanticleers ran ball for 236+ yards in four of last six games.
? Coastal has 8 starters back on offense, 6 starters back on defense.
? Chanticleers have 109 returning starts on the offensive line.
? Coastal?s freshman QB has 23 TD passes, two INTs.
? Chanticleers are 7-0 ATS in games with a single digit spread.
? This is Coastal Carolina?s first-ever bowl game.

? These teams were supposed to play last month, but Liberty had COVID issues and the game cancelled.


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Bowl Week[/B]

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Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saturday, December 26

Western Kentucky @ Georgia State
Western Kentucky
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Western Kentucky's last 5 games
Western Kentucky is 2-8-2 ATS in its last 12 games
Georgia State
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Georgia State's last 10 games
Georgia State is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games

Louisiana-Lafayette @ Texas-San Antonio
Louisiana-Lafayette
Louisiana-Lafayette is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Louisiana-Lafayette's last 8 games
Texas-San Antonio
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Texas-San Antonio's last 8 games
Texas-San Antonio is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

Liberty @ Coastal Carolina
Liberty
Liberty is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Liberty is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games
Coastal Carolina
Coastal Carolina is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Coastal Carolina is 7-1-1 ATS in its last 9 games

 

[Cnotes53]

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 26
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

ULL at UTSA 03:30 PM
ULL -14.0
U 54.5

WKU at GSU 03:30 PM
GSU -3.5
U 49.5

LIB at CCU 07:30 PM
LIB +7.0
U 59.5

 

[Cnotes53]

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

12/26/2020 2-4-0 33.33% -1200 Detail
12/25/2020 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
12/24/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
12/23/2020 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
12/22/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
12/19/2020 13-16-1 45.00% -2300 Detail
12/18/2020 2-5-1 31.25% -1750
12/12/2020 11-11-1 50.00% -550 Detail
12/11/2020 6-0-0 100.00% +3000 Detail
12/10/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
12/06/2020 2-2-0 100.00% -1.00 Detail
12/05/2020 29-21-0 58.00% +29.50 Detail
12/03/2020 3-1-0 75.00% +9.50 Detail

Totals...........73-71-3.....50.69%....-25.50

 

[Cnotes53]

Sunday?s 6-pack
Six of the least-experienced teams in college basketball this year:
329) Auburn
327) Kentucky
326) Duke
324) Louisville
323) UMass
322) Cal-Irvine

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 331,732
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.

Quote of the Day
?Winning helps, and losing doesn?t.?
Bill Parcells

Sunday?s quiz
What veteran actor played the pitching coach in the baseball movie, Bull Durham?

Saturday?s quiz
Stan Kroenke owns the Los Angeles Rams; he also owns the NBA?s Denver Nuggets and the NHL?s Colorado Avalanche.

Friday?s quiz
In the movie Draft Day, where Kevin Costner is GM of the Cleveland Browns, Denis Leary plays the coach of the Browns.

*****************************

Sunday?s Den: Wrapping up a sports Saturday

13) 49ers 20, @ Arizona 12:
? Chicago now holds its own playoff fate in its hands.
? Wilson ran for 183 yards for the 49ers, who averaged 7.6 yards/rush.
? Kittle caught four passes for 92 yards in his return from injury.
? Just third win in last dozen series games for San Francisco.

? Cardinals were 5-2 before their bye, are 3-5 since the bye.
? Arizona converted 4-16 third down plays, 4-6 fourth down plays.
? Redbirds are 7-13 ATS in last 20 games as home favorites, 2-4 TY.
? Arizona trailed at halftime in 10 of its 15 games.

12) Buccaneers 47, Lions 7
? Detroit didn?t have most of its coaches; this was an embarrassment to the NFL, a totally non-competitive game.
? Plus, Detroit QB Stafford (ankle) went out in first quarter.
? Tampa Bay is in playoffs for first time since 2007.
? Detroit is 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight games.

11) Dolphins 26, Las Vegas 25:
? Fitzpatrick came off bench, was 9-13/182 passing to save their butts.
? There were five scores (22 points) in last 4:13 of this game.
? Dolphins won nine of their last 11 games.
? Dolphins covered nine of their last ten games.

? Raiders kicked FG with 0:19 left to take 25-23 lead.
? Las Vegas lost five of their last six games overall.
? Raiders lost six of their last eight home games this year.
? Over is 12-3 in Raider games this season.

10) All three of the Cleveland Browns? top WR?s ? Jarvis Landry, Rashard Higgins, Donovan Peoples-Jones ? are out of Sunday?s game with the Jets, due to contact tracing.

9) Louisville 62, Kentucky 59:
? Kentucky lost its last six games for first time since 1911.
? Wildcats were held to 64 or fewer points in six consecutive games, for first time since 1946.

8) Last week, John Calipari asked freshman Cam?Ron Fletcher to ?take some time away from the team? after Fletcher pouted about his lack of playing time during a loss to North Carolina.

This is what is called a euphemism, which is defined as: ?amild or indirect word or expression substituted for one considered to be too harsh or blunt when referring to something unpleasant or embarrassing.?

Truth is, they suspended the kid, but didn?t want to announce that.

7) Northwestern 71, Ohio State 70:
? Wildcats are 3-0 in the Big 14 for first time since 1968.
? Northwestern already has three top 40 wins.

6) Was looking thru some old stuff the other day: after the 1981 college football season, there were only 15 bowl games- the last ones were on January 1st. Times have changed.

5) Liberty 37, Coastal Carolina 34 OT:
? Coastal Carolina, Liberty have only been I-A programs for a combined seven years; they met here as ranked teams with a combined 20-1 record. Things change fast these days.
? Liberty led 31-19 in 4th quarter; Coastal tied it with 3:01 left.

4) Sunday is December 27, and the favorite in the MAAC, the Siena Saints, haven?t played a game yet. They?re supposed to play Monmouth January 3-4; we?ll see how that goes.

Lets look at how some teams are doing as far as team over/unders; these stats are prior to the games played Friday/Saturday:
3) Buffalo/Arizona went over their team total in 10 of their first 14 games this season; Cardinals weren?t so lucky Saturday, so now they?re 10-5 to the over.

2) Texans, Patriots, Giants, Eagles have been held under their total in nine of 14 games.

1) Steelers were 7-1-1 to the over in their first nine games, but stayed under their total in their last five, losing the last three.

Likewise, Seattle went over in seven of first eight games, but was held under their total in five of their last six games.

 

[Cnotes53]

Tuesday?s 6-pack
Interesting Week 17 NFL spreads:
? New Orleans (-6.5) @ Carolina
? NJ Jets @ New England (-3.5)
? Minnesota (-6.5) @ Detroit
? Atlanta @ Tampa Bay (-6.5)
? Baltimore (-11.5) @ Cincinnati
? Seattle (-4.5) @ San Francisco

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 334,116
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.

Quote of the Day
?He is going to stand on his beliefs and he?s certainly not going to be politically correct. To be honest, I?m certainly paying attention, but it doesn?t affect us at all. Whether or not he upset (people), Ohio State is going to be excited to play because it?s the Playoff, it?s a great opportunity. I mean, that?s what it?s all about. Just making the most of your opportunity. Certainly this year, everybody has worked hard, struggled, made a lot of sacrifice?
Clemson defensive coordinator Brent Venables, talking about Dabo Swinney voting Ohio State 11th in the last coaches? poll

Tuesday?s quiz
When was the last time an NFL team went 0-16 for a season?

Monday?s quiz
Before moving to Tennessee, the Titans were the Houston Oilers.

Sunday?s quiz
Robert Wuhl played the pitching coach in the baseball movie, Bull Durham.

****************************

Tuesday?s Den: Nobody asked me, but??

13) An ethical question to start off today: if you owned an NFL team (an average NFL team is worth $3B), and your team had the worst record in the league in December, would you to tell the coach to make sure the squad kept losing, to make sure you get the #1 pick in the draft?

Drafting Trevor Lawrence will sell a lot of tickets, when fans can go to games again; trading the first pick would bring a back a big haul of draft picks, which would fill a lot of holes that a bad team obviously has.

Lot of money at stake; these conversations would have been interesting to hear.

12) CBS analyst/former NFL QB Rich Gannon had the Bears-Jaguars game Sunday; he was very critical of the Jacksonville coaches as Chicago pulled ahead and routed the Jaguars, but it has to be a possibility that Doug Marrone was doing his job, making sure Jacksonville lost and clinched the #1 pick in the draft, which they did Sunday.

For the long-term success of the Jaguars, having that #1 pick is probably the best way for them to become good again.

11) An unnamed someone bet $500,000 on the Carolina Panthers? money line Sunday; that person mustn?t think much of Dwayne Haskins as a quarterback. Panthers won 20-13, and the gambler had a big day, just in time, too. Washington released Haskins Monday.

It takes a lot of onions to wager $500,000 on the Panthers to win straight up- they had lost eight of their previous nine games.

10) Haskins was Washington first round draft pick LAST YEAR, the 15th pick in the draft, and they freakin? cut him before his second year was over, making him the only QB in the last 20 years who was drafted in the first round, then cut before his second year was over.

Four 1st round QBs in the last twenty years were traded/cut after their second year in the NFL: Paxton Lynch, Johnny Manziel, Josh Rosen and Brandon Weeden.

9) Mike Glennon played QB for Jacksonville Sunday; he?s had a nomadic career:
2009-12: NC State, started last two years, replacing Russell Wilson
2013-16: Tampa Bay- Was 5-13 as a starter, with 30 TD?s, 15 INTs
2017: Chicago- Went 1-3 as a starter, with 4 TD?s, 5 INT?s
2018: Arizona- Threw 21 passes in two relief stints.
2019: Oakland: Threw 10 passes in two relief stints.
2020: Jacksonville: 0-4 as a starter, with 5 TD?s, 5 INT?s

6-20 as a starter, still making seven figures a year ($1.19M this year)

8) Was a little odd Sunday, watching NFL games on the dish, and CBS get doing promos for the Ball State-San Jose State bowl game, but both teams have really good years. San Jose is actually undefeated; good for them!!!

7) Baseball stuff:
? Texas Rangers signed Japanese P Kohei Arihara.
? San Diego signed Korean IF Ha-seong Kim

6) RIP to Phil Niekro, the knuckleballer pitcher who won 318 games in a 24-year career, mostly for the Braves. Niekro pitched until he was 48 years old; he passed away this weekend. RIP, sir.

5) College hoop scores of note:
? Maryland 70, Wisconsin 64
? Drake 66, Indiana State 63 (Drake is 11-0)
? Evansville 84, Southern Illinois 72

4) In their 52-33 win over Minnesota Christmas Day, the Saints had 11 first downs on their first 14 plays, which is incredibly bad defense by the Vikings (and good offense by the Saints).

52 points the Saints scored are the most points the Vikings gave up since 1963, when the Cardinals drilled them 56-14.

3) Rams? QB Jared Goff had his broken right thumb surgically repaired Monday, is out for this week?s game with Arizona. Backup QB John Wolford will get his first NFL start; he started for four years at Wake Forest, then played for the Arizona Hotshots in the AAF in 2018- they were 5-3 when the league stopped playing, and Wolford was leading the league in TD passes.

2) Minnesota Timberwolves? star Karl-Anthony Towns dislocated his left wrist, will be evaluated every week. Timberwolves are obviously hoping for a short absence for their star.

Nets? Spencer Dinwiddie partially tore his ACL, is out for the season.

1) Bills 38, New England 9
? Bills sweep New England for first time since 1999.
? Buffalo won eight of last eight games, covered last seven.
? Bills outscored last six opponents 128-61 in first half.
? Over is 11-4 in their games this season.

? New England lost last three games, are out of playoffs for first time since ?08.
? Last three games, Patriots scored only one touchdown.
? Patriots converted only 9 of last 34 third down plays.
? This was Buffalo?s 7th win in last 42 series games.

 

[Cnotes53]

Tech Trends - Bowls
Bruce Marshall

The College Football Bowl Season kicks off on Monday, Dec. 21 and concludes on Saturday, Jan. 2 before the College Football Playoff championship on Monday, Jan. 11.

We've identified betting trends and angles for the final 27 bowl games and we also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.

OKLAHOMA STATE vs. MIAMI-Fl.
Canes slowed down late in season, just 2-5 last seven vs. line in 2020.
Though OSU only 1-5 last six vs. spread.
Cowboys also on 3-11 ?under? run since late last season.
Gundy has also covered four straight bowls.
Meanwhile, Miami has lost and failed to cover 8 of last 9 bowls.

Tech Edge: Oklahoma State and ?under,? based on team and ?totals? trends.

COLORADO vs. TEXAS
Tom Herman 4-0 SU and vs. line in bowls (3-0 with Texas).
Buffs were 4-1 vs. line for Karl Dorrell this season.
CU 0-5 SU (1-4 vs. line) last five bowls, only one since 2007, and no SU wins since ?99 Insight.com Bowl vs. BC.

Tech Edge: Texas, based on bowl trends. slight to UCF, based on bowl trends.


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NCAAF
Dunkel

Bowl Week

 

[Cnotes53]

NCAAF
Long Sheet

Bowl Week

 

[Cnotes53]

211W VIRGINIA -212 ARMY
W VIRGINIA is 12-2 ATS (9.8 Units) vs. poor passing teams with a completion pct. of 48% or worse. since 1992.

295OKLAHOMA ST -296 MIAMI
MIAMI is 12-27 ATS (-17.7 Units) off upset loss vs conference foe since 1992.

297COLORADO -298 TEXAS
COLORADO is 14-30 ATS (-19 Units) in road games after allowing >=37 pts. since 1992.

311WISCONSIN -312 WAKE FOREST
WAKE FOREST is 22-9 ATS (12.1 Units) in road games after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers since 1992.

313MISSOURI -314 IOWA
MISSOURI is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return over the last 2 seasons.

313MISSOURI -314 IOWA
MISSOURI is 8-1 Under (6.9 Units) vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return over the last 2 seasons.

315FLORIDA -316 OKLAHOMA
FLORIDA is 13-3 ATS (9.7 Units) in road games off a close loss by 7 points or less to a conference rival since 1992.

317MISSISSIPPI ST -318 TULSA
MISSISSIPPI ST is 16-31 ATS (-18.1 Units) after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games since 1992.

321BALL ST -322 SAN JOSE ST
BALL ST is 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) vs. winning teams over the last 2 seasons.

323ARKANSAS -324 TCU
ARKANSAS are 12-2 ATS (9.8 Units) in road games against the Big 12 since 1992.

 

[Cnotes53]

NCAAF

Bowl Week

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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[Cnotes53]

TUESDAY, DECEMBER 29
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

OKST at MIA 05:30 PM
OKST -1.5
U 62.0

TEX at COLO 09:00 PM
COLO +7.5
O 65.5

 

[Cnotes53]

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

12/29/2020 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
12/26/2020 2-4-0 33.33% -1200 Detail
12/25/2020 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
12/24/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
12/23/2020 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
12/22/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
12/19/2020 13-16-1 45.00% -2300 Detail
12/18/2020 2-5-1 31.25% -1750
12/12/2020 11-11-1 50.00% -550 Detail
12/11/2020 6-0-0 100.00% +3000 Detail
12/10/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
12/06/2020 2-2-0 100.00% -1.00 Detail
12/05/2020 29-21-0 58.00% +29.50 Detail
12/03/2020 3-1-0 75.00% +9.50 Detail

Totals...........75-73-3.....50.67%....-26.50

 

[Cnotes53]

Wednesday?s 6-pack
Money made by Nevada casinos in November:
? Penny slots: $224.3M
? Sports betting: $61.8M
? Blackjack: $58.1M
? Baccarat: $42M
? Dollar slots: $36M
? Roulette: $14.2M

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 336,529
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.

Quote of the Day
?They should be in the KGB stealing communications, they?re that good.?
Ohio State football coach Ryan Day, talking about Clemson

Wednesday?s quiz
In the last 40 years, Ohio State has had two QB?s picked in the first round of the NFL Draft: Dwayne Haskins is one. Who was the other?

Tuesday?s quiz
2017 Cleveland Browns were the last NFL team that went 0-16 for a season; Detroit Lions went 0-16 in 2008.

Monday?s quiz
Before moving to Tennessee, the Titans were the Houston Oilers.

***************************

Wednesday?s Den: Mid-week musings??

13) Buffalo Bills? QB Josh Allen is having a great season, which makes college football recruiting gurus look even dumber. Recruiting/drafting are fascinating, because no one KNOWS. They THINK they know, but no one knows for sure.

When Allen was coming out of Reedley College, a JC in California, he got two scholarship offers; Eastern Michigan and Wyoming. Now he?s an All-Pro quarterback; go figure.

12) Washington told QB Dwayne Haskins to take a hike Monday, then he went unclaimed on the waiver wire. SOMEONE will take a chance on him; he was a first-round draft pick last year, so someone will take a shot at developing him as a QB of the future. Good luck there.

? It is an underreported thing how many totally obscure guys are backup QBs in the NFL:

11) John Wolford is making his NFL debut when he starts for the Rams Sunday; he started for four years at Wake Forest, starting as a true freshman, which ain?t easy. He went 15-11 the last two years at a school that isn?t a football factory. Not a lot of QB?s are 4-year college starters.

Wolford also played for the Arizona Hotshots in the AAF in the spring of 2018; he was leading the AAF in touchdown passes when the league shut down. Rick Neuheisel was his coach, an old QB himself. Wolford is mobile; will be fascinating to see how he does Sunday.

10) Rams have other issues; two of their three running backs have ankle injuries, WR Cooper Kupp is on the COVID list (status unknown). LA signed QB Blake Bortles to back up Wolford.

9) Social media is funny; people are so damn fickle; everyone is either great or needs to be cut, no middle ground. The typical fan is like ?We?re with you win or tie and we aren?t crazy about ties?

But when I woke up Tuesday morning, and I?m scrolling thru Instagram, someone had posted these film packages on Wolford playing in the AAF? I probably saw 30-40 of his plays, which was interesting.

8) Arizona Cardinals? backup QB is Chris Streveler, who helped the Winnipeg Blue Bombers win the Grey Cup before coming to Arizona; he played college ball at Minnesota for two years, where he threw 11 passes, ran ball 40 times, before he transferred to I-AA South Dakota. Reading about him, he seems like the Taysom Hill of Canada; he played some WR for Winnipeg.

7) Tennessee Titans? backup QB is Logan Woodside, who was a 3-year starter at Toledo; he?s thrown three passes this season, landing with Tennessee after hanging around with the Bengals for a while in 2018.

6) Seattle?s backup is Geno Smith, who went 12-19 as a starter in New Jersey. Smith had a great college career at West Virginia, where his WR?s were Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey, both of whom wound up with the Rams (Austin is with Green Bay now).

5) I?m going to do a whole thing pretty soon on how Ohio State quarterbacks have fared in the NFL; the results, up to now, have not been good. Justin Fields could turn the whole thing around, but so far, the best Buckeye to play QB in the NFL seems to be Joe Burrow, who transferred out of Columbus and starred at LSU.

4) NFL stuff:
? Washington outscored its last ten opponents in 2nd half (total 152-44)
? Last three weeks, Buffalo outscored opponents 58-14 in second half.
? Last three weeks, New England was outscored 43-6 in second half.

3) Until couple days ago, I had no idea that Ron Reiner was the director of A Few Good Men, which is a great movie. I usually associate the Reiner family with comedies, but that movie is no comedy. The courtroom scene at the end with Jack Nicholson is a classic.

2) Oklahoma State 37, Miami 34:
? OSU stormed out to a 21-0 lead, had to hang on for dear life.
? WR Presley caught six passes for 118 yards, three TD?s for the Cowboys.
? Miami QB King (knee) got hurt in 2nd quarter, didn?t return.
? Backup QB Perry threw for 228 yards, two TD?s; Miami gained 512 yards.

1) Alamo Bowl was in San Antonio last night; I was in San Antonio for a couple days, maybe in 2003, anyway it was a while ago, but San Antonio is a cool place. There is a river that goes right thru part of the city, and they have restaurants with patios where you can sit by the water on either side and watch boats go by while you eat.

The actual Alamo is very small; it looks like an old convenience store. People were nice enough, I enjoyed my brief time there. Should?ve gone during basketball season, I guess.

 

[Cnotes53]

WISCONSIN vs. WAKE FOREST
Badgers no covers last four in 2020, longest spread skid since beginning of 2012 (reached six, including last two of 2011).
Meanwhile, Wake 6-2 vs. line in 2020.
Wiscy had won and covered five bowls in a row prior to close Rose Bowl loss to Ducks last season.

Tech Edge: Wake Forest, based on recent trends.

MISSOURI vs. IOWA
Mizzou cooled off late in 2020, lost last three vs. line.
Tigers just 1-3 vs. line away from Columbia.
Now, 1-9 vs. spread last 10 away from home.
Iowa 6-0 SU, 5-1 vs. line last five in 2020.
Kirk Ferentz has won and covered last three bowls.

Tech Edge: Iowa, based on team trends.

FLORIDA vs. OKLAHOMA
Sooners won last seven outright, covered last six, in 2020.
Though OU just 2-4 vs. line last six bowls, and 3-2 last five in rare dog roles.
Gators head coach Dan Mullen 4-5 vs. line in bowls.

Tech Edge: Slight to OU, based on recent trends.


*****************************


311WISCONSIN -312 WAKE FOREST
WAKE FOREST is 22-9 ATS (12.1 Units) in road games after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers since 1992.

313MISSOURI -314 IOWA
MISSOURI is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return over the last 2 seasons.

313MISSOURI -314 IOWA
MISSOURI is 8-1 Under (6.9 Units) vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return over the last 2 seasons.

315FLORIDA -316 OKLAHOMA
FLORIDA is 13-3 ATS (9.7 Units) in road games off a close loss by 7 points or less to a conference rival since 1992.


*************************


NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Bowl Week

Dec 30

Mayo Bowl
Wake Forest (4-4) vs Wisconsin (3-3)
? Wake lost its last two games, giving up 104 points.
? Deacons allowed 46.5 ppg in losses, 16.8 ppg in wins.
? Wake has 3 starters back on offense, 8 starters back on defense.
? Deacons have 59 returning starts on the offensive line.
? Wake has a sophomore QB with 17 career starts.
? Deacons covered three of four games as an underdog this year.
? Wake Forest won three of its last four bowl games.

? Wisconsin lost three of last four games, scoring 10 ppg.
? Badgers have allowed only 15.7 ppg this season.
? Badgers have 6 starters back on offense, 9 starters back on defense.
? Wisconsin has 50 returning starts on the offensive line.
? Wisconsin has a freshman QB, with six starts.
? Badgers are 0-5 ATS in last five games overall (under 5-0).
? Wisconsin won four of its last five bowl games.

Cotton Bowl, Dallas
Oklahoma (8-2) vs Florida (8-3)
? Oklahoma won its last seven games, after a 1-2 start.
? Sooners scored 35-30 points in their two losses.
? Oklahoma hasn?t lost since October 3rd vs Iowa State
? Sooners have 8 starters back on offense, 8 starters back on defense.
? Oklahoma has 75 returning starts on the offensive line.
? Sooners have a freshman QB with 10 career starts.
? Oklahoma covered five of its last six games overall.
? Sooners lost their last three bowls, giving up 54 ppg.

? Florida lost its last two games, giving up 37-52 points.
? Gators? losses this season are by 3-3-6 points.
? Florida threw ball for 400+ yards in their last three games.
? Gators have 6 starters back on offense, 6 starters back on defense.
? Florida has 89 returning starts on the offensive line.
? Gators have a senior QB who has started 22 games.
? Florida is 1-4-1 ATS in last six games overall.
? Gators won their last three bowls by a combined score of 107-46