The French Open

Smitty

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I love how those pretentious bastards want it to be called "Roland Garros" now. Oui Oui, Pierre.

As if Sinner needed any help, it looks like he's going to catch a huge break. With Alcaraz out, pretty much the only thing that could beat Sinner is the heat*. And the first round is going to be played in 90° temps. Luckily, Sinner doesn't even have a real opponent in the first round, as he's playing a wild card who is currently 165 in the world. Starting Wednesday, the temps are going to start dropping.

*In case nobody has been paying attention, pretty much ever since Sinner's return from his drug suspension, he's STRUGGLED with the heat. And for some stupid reason he often wears black. But with temps down into the 60s for the second week, he dodged a bullet.

It's insane how easy Gauff's quarter is, and she's still only +110 to win it.

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Problem is, who else to bet? I kinda like Noskova and Kalinskaya, but neither has ever been past the round of 64 here. Maybe Lois Boisson goes on another dream run (at +15,000)? Mertens is probably a good bet at +2,000, but I just can't trust her. She'll need to get past Qinwen Zheng in the 2nd round and maybe Noskova in the 3rd. And, as overrated as Gauff is... who's going to beat her? I think the best chance of her losing in the first few rounds is in the first, against Townsend. I mean, Gauff has never beat Townsend. Ok, they've only played once. But it was on clay! Ok, it was American clay. And it was in 2019, when Gauff was 15 years old. But STILL!

Fuck, maybe Qinwen Zheng is the play. She's kinda rounding into form. While she lost in the round of 32 in both of her clay court tournaments coming into this, both were 3-setters. Against Rybakina and (peak) Ostapenko. And, obviously, she's had some success here, reaching the Quarters last year.

Hell, I could make arguments for Kalinina and Potapova.

Feels like I just wasted an hour, because I'm really no closer to deciding what the fuck to do here. Anyone with any thoughts?

Ok, one last note before I quit for the evening... fuck, the top of this quarter on the men's side is stacked. 3 of the top 5 choices to win the tournament.

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kickserv

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As if Sinner needed any help, it looks like he's going to catch a huge break. With Alcaraz out, pretty much the only thing that could beat Sinner is the heat*.

kickserv disagrees....

 

Smitty

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kickserv disagrees....

Well, I'll be rooting for you. Unless he plays asshole douchebag in the Final.
 
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Smitty

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First 2 bets are in.

Men
Under 25.5 Seeds to advance past first round 2.4 to win 2

Women
Under 25.5 Seeds to advance past first round 2.4 to win 2
 

Smitty

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Men
Dzumhur (vs ADF) to win a set 2.5 to win 2
Ruiz/Tirante Over 37.5 2.5 to win 2
Droguet (vs Mensik) 2 to win 3.7. Only the 2nd time the Frenchman has made it into the main draw of a Grand Slam. The other time was 2023 at the US Open. He beat Musetti before losing to a young qualifier who was 2 days short of his 18th birthday... Jakub Mensik. Now, nearly 3 years later, he rides the home crowd to get his revenge.
Basavareddy (vs Fritz) 2 to win 5.5 Ok, I was pretty much betting against Fritz no matter who he played. He just returned from injury and couldn't handle Popyrin. Plus he's never had great results at Roland Garros. And Basavareddy just won the title at Savannah last month! :) Worth a shot at+275.
Cina (vs Opelka) -1.5 sets 4.6 to win 4. Opelka coming off his retirement in Madrid. And it's gonna be a hot one tomorrow. Not ideal for the big guy.
Medjedovic/Hanfmann Over 38.5 2.5 to win 2
Parlay Prizmic (vs Zheng)/Cina/Blockx (vs Wong) 2.4 to win 2

Ladies
Taking some shots with ladies coming off injuries.

Burel (vs Volynets) 1 to win 3.6. Burel tore her ACL last year, and has lost all 3 matches in her return this year (all at lower levels). But she's very good on clay and will get support from the home crowd. Volynets is ok on clay, but nothing great. Burel is worth a shot at +360.
Parlay Bejlek (vs Stephens) and Tagger (vs Wang*) 2 to win 3. Bejlek is very good on clay, but she's been dealing with injuries this year, including a lower back injury last month. I'm sure that's why she's only -189. And Stephens is showing a little life, coming through qualifiers. But I'll take a shot with Bejlek. And Tagger won the Girls title here last year.

*I thought Wangs weren't allowed in Women's tennis. Huh.

Parlay Cina and Tagger 2 to win 2.6

Added a couple Futures on the Ladies side:

Sabalenka to reach the Final 2 to win 2.
Ostapenko to reach Semis 1 to win 22
The Field (vs Swiatek, Sabalenka, and Rybakina) 2 to win 3.2
 

kickserv

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*I thought Wangs weren't allowed in Women's tennis. Huh.

Smitty breaking down chick injuries like he is lurking in the women's change roomso_O


and as for the Wangs......


Mark Wahlberg Wow GIF by Daddy's Home
 

Smitty

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Day Two

Men

Rodionov (vs Rinderknech) Over 18.5 games 2.1 to win 2
Parlay De Jong (vs Wawrinka)/Atmane (vs Kokkinakis)/Ruud (vs Safiullin) 2 to win 2.4
Munar/Hurkacz Over 39.5 2.1 to win 2
Buse (vs Rublev) Over 18.5 2.1 to win 2
Merida Aguilar (vs Shelton) +1.5 sets 1 to win 1.4

Ladies
Chwalinska (vs Zheng) 1 to win 2.2
Chwalinska +4.5 games 2.4 to win 2
Yastremska (vs Paolini) 2 to win 2.9
Yastremska Over 11.5 games 2.5 to win 2
Quevedo/Jeanjean Over 20.5 2.6 to win 2

Parlay Osorio (vs Alexandrova)/Navone (vs Brooksby)/Ruud 2 to win 2.1
 

Smitty

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Day 2, it was the men who let me down. Wow.

Of course, Buse had won 18 games and was serving, up 5-2 in the 4th set. And he promptly dropped the last 5 games.

4-7, -5.6
 
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Smitty

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Day Three

Men

Adolfo Daniel Vallejo (vs Norrie) 2.4 to win 2. Fun fact... Adolfo has never lost a match in the French Open.
Garin (vs Tien) 2 to win 2.6
Baez/Burruchaga Over 36.5 3.6 to win 3. Ok, some interesting info re: Baez's recent history at Roland Garros. His last 5 matches (and this goes back over the last 4 years) have ALL gone 5 sets. 3 of those, including his last 2, he lost the match after winning the first 2 sets. All 5 were at least 45 games. So Over 36.5 feels way too easy. Which usually spells disaster. This match will probably end up 6-0, 6-0, 6-0. But I'm going to take a couple more shots.
Burruchaga Over 18.5 3.9 to win 3
Burruchaga to win 2+ sets 3.5 to win 2
Quinn/Comesana Over 37.5 2.5 to win 2
Ofner (vs Darderi) 2 to win 5.1. What the hell? I've hit a winner at over +200 each of the first two days, let's take another shot. Ofner is capable on clay, and I'm waiting for Darderi to come back to Earth after his recent run. Darderi has won a grand total of one match at Roland Garros (2 years ago, against Rinky). So this is worth a shot.

Ladies
Don't like much here. Gonna take a few longshots. Just gotta hit two of these. Piece of cake!

Tjen (vs Navarro) 1 to win 2.3 (side note... anyone notice that Navarro put on quite a bit of weight during her two-month break?
Shuai Zhang (vs Li) 1 to win 2.1
Siegemund (vs Osaka) 1 to win 2.6
Townsend (vs Gauff) 1 to win 5.3

You can go crazy and parlay all 4... pays +22,940! Practically can't lose!
 
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