This is the Life... Divisional Round

[gjn23]

i have a feeling that this one gets ugly......these games in this round usually get ugly and this one and indy should fall in line.....skins 3 straight roadies, cross country, an offense that stinks and a defense that's getting banged up.....+9, no thanks.

2 teams dont belong in this round (not that anybody else does because cincy and tb were frauds):

wash and pitt.....the other 6 are the 6 best teams...these two are a bit off and get rolled by well rested, offense oriented home teams with loud fans.

however, as a bears fan....go skins.....wanna host that nfc title game!

 

[thom24ad]

Game 2
Denver -3 1100/1000

Clem, Once again I agree...Still struggling on the wash game but when comes down to it...Wash is just too beat up...and Holmgreen finally gets over the hump this year

I am not buying into the Pats either...loved them last week at home but no way can this team wins on the road...they should have scored 40 on Jaxs...but this team goes down in Denver...Not buying into the hype with the Pats...I knew they would blow Jaxs out last week...The match ups was just in their favor...I have feeling Denver run the ball down their throat this week...and last weeks win was unimpressive to me...Denver by 7

I am thinking might as well go Indy -9...does the time off for these home teams bother you at all, Clem?...it just seems like Indy and Seattle are giving too many for a playoff game...but I still think Cincy wins with Palmer doesn't get hurt and Pitt shouldn't still be playing...and Wash has been somewhat of an over achieving team

 

[Clem D]

Clem, Once again I agree...Still struggling on the wash game but when comes down to it...Wash is just too beat up...and Holmgreen finally gets over the hump this year

I am not buying into the Pats either...loved them last week at home but no way can this team wins on the road...they should have scored 40 on Jaxs...but this team goes down in Denver...Not buying into the hype with the Pats...I knew they would blow Jaxs out last week...The match ups was just in their favor...I have feeling Denver run the ball down their throat this week...and last weeks win was unimpressive to me...Denver by 7

I am thinking might as well go Indy -9...does the time off for these home teams bother you at all, Clem?...it just seems like Indy and Seattle are giving too many for a playoff game...but I still think Cincy wins with Palmer doesn't get hurt and Pitt shouldn't still be playing...and Wash has been somewhat of an over achieving team

No the time off for the home teams is a godsend at playoff time. Especially in the redskin game.
I can not stress this enough. 3 straight roadgames flying crosscountr, and being in do or die situations for six weeks.

It is just too much for this team.

It will be a blowout

 

[Dizzayton]

CLEM you may be right, and you have definitely won more money than me this year, but Washington is coming off two home games, then a road game at Philly (SHORT FLIGHT) and road game at TAMPA (2 HR FLIGHT). These are not exactly trips overseas. I admit that the trip to Seattle is a long one, but are you really ready to say Seattle is capable of blowing out any good team or even beating them handily? This team is above average and nothing more. Who have they beat? In my opinion, Wash and Seattle are clearly the weakest remaining teams in the entire playoffs. At this point in the season, Chi, Car, Den, Pats, Pitt and Indy could all beat both of them. That's my opinion of course. Gibbs will have the team ready to play. Seattle will be pumped up and rested, but this Wash team is not scared.

 

[Clem D]

Dizz. As I said before maybe you are right. Would not be the first time I was dead wrong about a game. All Im saying is I will take a top seed who has earned homefield advantage through out the playoffs coming off the buy over a team in Washingtons position everytime for my money.

As to your question am I ready to say Seattle is capable of a blow out over any good team in this spot. The answer is yes, and history backs up this play bigtime. Im not a huge trends guy, so I won't post them in here. look back at how well the home favs do in this spot.

Good luck to you

 

[Clem D]

Borrowed this from Ar182's thread. If you guys dont read this guys stuff you are missing out.


The Divisional Playoff round of the NFL postseason has produced the most lopsided scores as the teams that have earned the right to rest through the Wildcard round have owned their visiting foes. In fact, the average margin of victory in this round has been over 15 PPG.

The home team has been most dominant in winning games in the Divisional Playoff round, with a SU record of 41-11. Its ATS mark of 28-22 (56%) slightly trails the Wildcard Round though.

Discounting the rare four road covers of the 2004 Divisional Playoff Weekend, Home teams are a stellar 21-3 SU & 16-7 ATS (69.6%) in this round

Favorites in the Divisional Round own an ATS mark of 26-21 (55.3%) since ?93.

Favorites of more than a TD are 20-3 SU & 15-7-1 ATS (68.1%) in the Divisional Round since ?93!

There has been only one home underdog in the last 13 years of Divisional Round play, and that was in ?97 when host Carolina upended Dallas 26-17 as a 3-point dog.

The last six times that a 6th seed has advanced to the Divisional round, it has been blown out. The average score of these games was 39-14, and the home team was 6-0 SU & ATS.


That last paragragh makes me feel pretty good

 

[Clem D]

Carolina Vs Chicago


So many reasons not to take chicago here. 3rd road game in a row, playing a rested Bears team at a tough place to play, Bears already beat the Panthers etc etc. When I look at these teams in the preseason, one of them I expected to be here, and the other I did not. I respect John Fox more than most coaches in his ability to game plan his defense. He told us all that he would not let Tiki beat him, and his defense stopped him cold and made Eli beat him, which quite frankly he could not do.
I asked myself who would be the more difficult offense to gameplan for the Giants or the Bears? In my mind its not close. The Bears have a QB who has even less game experience than ELI. Look for Thomas Jones to have a very painful day running against the 8 man fronts and run blitzes he will see. Carolina has had two cake walks and comes in healthy to this one. The only area for concern and it is a big one is the Bears defense. They will not give up many points here, Im sure the last week off has helped them but lately the Bears defense has given up some yards.

against minny in a meaningless game for both
TOTAL NET YARDS they gave up 396
and 149 on the ground

against Greenbay
TOTAL NET YARDS 365
but only 65 yards on the ground (Green Bay cant run)

Against Atlanta
TOTAL NET YARDS 231 yards
and 114 on the ground
Very impressive showing against Atlanta..

Against Pitt
TOTAL NET YARDS 363
and 190 on the ground.

Carolina has big game Qb and a great receiver maybe the best in the game. Stopping the Bears offense is not a question everyone does. infact the only teams with a worse offense are the Lions
The Jets, the 49ers, The Saints, and the Browns.

Defense wins Championships

Both teams have those. Only one has a decent offense.

Panthers +3.5 (-125)

1250/1000

I think they win it outright but if the Bears happen to win it will be by a fieldgoal!!

 

[Northern Star]

Clem:

Check out last weeks playoff post of yours, I wanted to send you something. Thanks for posting and good luck on your selections.

Northern Star

 

[Clem D]

Ask Jack for my email..

 

[thom24ad]

Borrowed this from Ar182's thread. If you guys dont read this guys stuff you are missing out.

I read his threads everyweek...he always post good stuff

 

[DanteTheDon]

Pats may be playing better than they were the first time in Denver, but well enough to win a road playoff game after the beating they took last trip to Denver?

wow.

so 28-20 now constitues "a beating"?

did you happen to watch the game?
no dillon. no seymour. no bruschi. harrison had just gone down for the year. brady played one of his rare awful games. and the patriots still had a shot at tying the game on their final drive in the 4th quarter. they also turned the ball over and gave up three ridiculous big plays.

the hyperbole in this forum is out of control. start calling spades - spades please. 28-3 over a 12-4 jacksonville team is a beating. not a marginal victory at home over a dillapitated team whose coach realizes an nfl season is a game of chess, not checkers...

 

[tball]

like the bears by 10 TW

like the bears by 10 TW

i actually think CAR is one of the worst teams going in these playoffs. besides last week--deshaun foster hadnt done anything and CAR was looking for a running game. granted he got it on track vs ATL--though his track rec shows that he (foster) does usually have a good game vs ATL--regardless of playoff implications for either team. maybe i'm still smarting from CAR not cashing in on short filed TO's that manning gave up for an over in 2H LW. as it were i knew CAR+3 was the play--though jammed myself up w/OV20.5 at same time. I knew CAR would win last week--as NYG were totally decimated all the way around on DEF with 3,4th string LBs and yet CAR only managed 23 was it? they certainly had opportunities for more points--as hadto settle for some FG's after being denied deep in GIA territory. NOW--that may be a effect of playing to win the game you're in right now--as they saw that GIANTs werent about to muster much on Off and played a little closer (settling for FGs) figuring points period would get the job done (which i guess in p'offs is sound judgement) Truly i cant make a case for bears running game against CAR defense--though do think Grossman will be the better QB on the field---as think delhomme wont have luxury he did vs swiss cheese GIA def against bears. Think bears will create turnovers/field position and take laed in 4th Q and putting away late. Though has been my experience the long you allow a polucky team likethis CAR one to linger--the worse off you are as it usually only take one blown assignment or missed tackle to blow your cover. that said-my moneys on CHI big TW.

 

[MrChristo]

wow.

so 28-20 now constitues "a beating"?

28-6 @ 3/4 before Denver took the foot off.

Beating.

 

[Clem D]

Again, Not taking anything from Bears Defense, but Carolinas is nearly as good going by the numbers. (better against the run)

Now the big difference is in the two teams offenses. (The Bears have none)

If the Panthers can score 13 they will cover with my 3.5 (bought the hook)

I see no way the bears can put up more than 16 in this spot.

It's nothing personal. It's just numbers.

 

[MackAttack]

Clem - what about the Indy game?

 

[Clem D]

Indy Vs Pitt.

Pitt has always been an enigma for me. If I play on them they beat me if I play against them they beat me. See last week for more on this. The Steelers will be playing their 4th road game in 5 weeks on Sunday. I do think Carson palmer would have made a big difference last week and the Steelers are fortunate to be still alive. That said I think Cowher will use that as a tool to fire this team up.

I look for the Colts to take a little while to shake some of the rust and nerves off and can not lay the 9.5 in this spot. I do think they will pull this game out late but doubt they cover. What i do see is points. I can see the Steelers with a lead at the half somewhere in the range of Pitt 14-17 to the Colts 10-13. The second half you should see the Colts score td's each of their first 2 drives and OL'Clem is home free.

over 47 (-120)

1200/1000

 

[Senor Capper]

Agree with Seattle.
Denver may be tight.

Like Indy & Carolina.

g/l


SC

 

[fatdaddycool]

Actually Clem I believe that the Bears have the better offense by a very good measure. They will be able to run the ball with Benson healthy, Adrian Peterson a speedy slashing back up and of course the tough as nails Thomas Jones are all better caliber backs than Foster. John Fox is a good coach but all good things come to an end.

The threat that Grossman brings is the ability to throw the deep ball with much better accuracy than Orton and Delhomme for that matter. In the first meeting as compared to now nothing has changed for Carolina and they were absolutely dominated by the front four of Chicago. Carolinas O-Line is somewhat undersized especially in the tackle position and is built to stretch the running game to the outside. There has not been a team that has done that to the BEARS at home all yr. This adds up to absolute destruction for the ability to pass block for Carolina. They will be forced to become one dimensional and the result will be the same.

In Chicago there is a refreshing feeling having their offensive leader back in Rex Grossman. I cannot overstate how much he brings to the offense in team confidence and passing ability. The BEARS will use the pass to set up the running game rather than the opposite, and will be effective. Julius Peppers was credited with 2 tackles in the last game and no sacks or pressures and that was against Fred Miller who was playing his first game back after missing two with a broken jaw. If Carolina cannot get any pressure on Grossman, which they got ZERO on Orton last time with no sacks and no hurries imagine what Grossman will do who is much quicker on his feet and releases the ball almost a full second faster than Orton on average (as reported in BEARS WEEKLY).

Sorry, I just see Americas and sportswriters love affair with Carolina (consensus pick to win super bowl with Jake Delhomme?) ending on Sunday.

FDC

 

[fatdaddycool]

One more thing..................I find it a bit difficult to understand why people say that the Panthers are so much better in the QB, Coaching, and playoff experience departments. There was no better coach than Lovie this yr as witnessed by his winning coach of the yr. He was with St. Louis when they went to the SB so how is Fox better? Because he went there and lost? Fred Miller of the BEARS has a SB ring how many are owned by Panther players? They didn't win it! Jake Delhomme is no better than any other QB that hasn't been able to get it done in the big games.......see Jake Plummer, Drew Bledsoe, Matt Hasselback,.....I seem to remember a guy named Brady that had no experience that won a SB in his first try..............anyway, I look at it like this. Just because Carolina went to the SB a few yrs back does not give them an edge as they didn't win it. You can watch your buddy lay the lead to some ole gal all you want and as many times as you want but until you hit it yourself you are still just a perverted virgin.

Cheers Clem,
Hope this helps,
FDC

 

[Franky Wright]

You can watch your buddy lay the lead to some ole gal all you want and as many times as you want but until you hit it yourself you are still just a perverted virgin.

FDC,
I respect your commentary and humor at this forum. but THE BEARS STILL SUCK :mj14:
Go Packers!, draft Vince Young :scared

Clem,
You are one smart guy on those write ups for an old fella Is she walkin straight now after that pipe laying you did to her after New Years? :clap:
Love all your plays!
Franky Wright