This weeks lines are here...

[nDn_Investor]

Oklahoma went back down to 3.....I like that....I rather have A&M at 3 opposed to 3.5.....Just one of those things.


If today was Saturday.....These would be my plays.

1-Texas A&M +3.....This play would fall under 2 categories....Fade the public 79% on the Sooners....And whacked out line....What i mean by that is....The Sooners are 7-1 and ranked #9 in the country and are only laying 3 points when it should be a boat load more....Let`s face it...They should be at least a 7-10 point favorite in this game.

2-Kent St +3......3 categories.....Fade the public...Line drop and whacked out line....At the moment Temple is the biggest public play of the day at 80%....The line went from 3.5 to 3....And lets face it....Temple is decent this season at 7-2...Kent is 4-4....This line should be about 7-10 also....Kent might get this sucker SU....Vegas will get richer off this play.

3-Louisiana Tech +1....3 categories.....Fade the public,Fresno has 61% on there side....Line went from 2 to 1....And Fresno is only a 1 point favorite in this game....It`s not Xmas just yet....Fresno is 5-2...Tech is 3-5....Fresno has sucker bet written all over it.

4-UCLA +4.5.....2 categories....This is a fade the public line drop play....72% on Oregon st....Line was as high as 7....Dropped 2.5 points to 4.5.....All indications are this will be a tight game....Probably a field goal either way.

5-UTEP +6.5.....2 Categories....Fade the public,line drop play...66% on SMU....SMU opened up at -8.5....Line dropped under the key # of 6.5....Went from 2 scores to 1 score....That`s a no no.

6-Duke +1.5....2 categories....Virginia has 64% on there side....I really believe this line is whacked....It`s Virginia vs Duke....Public perception is,no way Duke will beat Virginia....Virginia is 4-4...Duke 2-6.....Duke broke there 6 game losing streak by beating Navy on Saturday....Virginia just beat Miami....No way Duke will win 2 in a row....We`ll see!

7-Illinois +3.....Michigan only laying 3 points to Illinois in the big house....Looks easy...Right????....Watch Illinois go through this swiss cheese defense and give Michigan there 4th straight loss.

8-Northwestern +5.5....This is my personal play.

Nothing set in stone just yet....Just talk!

Gotta play A&M just based on the principals of contrarian betting. Could they get killed? Yes. Are they poorly coached at times? Yes. Is Vegas willing to get killed on this game? No.

Kent Looks great, enough said.

No opinion on La Tech yet, I got 58% on Fresno, for me the line would have to flip completely to La Tech -1 or stronger to play.

I had UCLA 2h last week, super solid play, I think they are finally getting it together and win this one straight up!

UTEP I need to see the line drop more, but for me it's already a small play based on UTEP not covering their last 3. The initial line drop indicates they will be in this game, but another line drop would make it official.

Duke opened as the favorite, the public betting flipped it to Virginia. Virginia coming off the bigger straight up win even though Duke cashed in for us big last weekend. I would love some Saturday morning sharp action to flip this back to Duke as a favorite, then I'll pounce on it for sure.

Against you on Illinois Kid, I love Michigan here. They are coming off 4 straight losses ATS, they are at home, the public is 65% on Illinois and the line has got stronger for Michigan. -3 and juiced against the money. They are almost begging people to take Illinois +3 even money (buy the hook) and collect their juice there.

I love Northwestern, especially if it drops to 5.5 across the board or lower. They haven't covered since the weather was warmer (Sept 18th to be exact), so they have lost their last 5 ATS, including that meltdown against Michigan State which they should have won straight up. Penn State is the perfect team to play as they have been playing better as of late (2 straight up double digit wins with a lot of scoring). I see a lot of scoring here too but Northwestern keeps it close if not wins it outright.


Hope I've added some credible insight to these games... I'll go over my leans in a bit and get your insight Kid. Thanks for your contributions to the forum as always.
:0074

 

[ldabdou]

Don't get off A&M, Kid... it's a winner!! You know as well as anyone, if the line doesn't look right, it's probably not right. The ones that seem so easy (like Okla -3) usually do not win. You have the odds in your favor. All that being said, Okla is very overrated anyway. They have looked very mediocre at times this season.. for a reason.Cinn, utah st and Air force all were able to score them... i see A&M putting up at least 30, maybe 40 here.

You just talked me into the over!

 

[joefrog91]

Good luck, Kid! I'm leaning A&M, NW and La Tech myself. I'm on Rutgers though. If by the half it looks like a S Fla blow out, I'll never doubt you. :toast:

 

[NBA_Kid]

Gotta play A&M just based on the principals of contrarian betting. Could they get killed? Yes. Are they poorly coached at times? Yes. Is Vegas willing to get killed on this game? No.

Kent Looks great, enough said.

No opinion on La Tech yet, I got 58% on Fresno, for me the line would have to flip completely to La Tech -1 or stronger to play.

I had UCLA 2h last week, super solid play, I think they are finally getting it together and win this one straight up!

UTEP I need to see the line drop more, but for me it's already a small play based on UTEP not covering their last 3. The initial line drop indicates they will be in this game, but another line drop would make it official.

Duke opened as the favorite, the public betting flipped it to Virginia. Virginia coming off the bigger straight up win even though Duke cashed in for us big last weekend. I would love some Saturday morning sharp action to flip this back to Duke as a favorite, then I'll pounce on it for sure.

Against you on Illinois Kid, I love Michigan here. They are coming off 4 straight losses ATS, they are at home, the public is 65% on Illinois and the line has got stronger for Michigan. -3 and juiced against the money. They are almost begging people to take Illinois +3 even money (buy the hook) and collect their juice there.

I love Northwestern, especially if it drops to 5.5 across the board or lower. They haven't covered since the weather was warmer (Sept 18th to be exact), so they have lost their last 5 ATS, including that meltdown against Michigan State which they should have won straight up. Penn State is the perfect team to play as they have been playing better as of late (2 straight up double digit wins with a lot of scoring). I see a lot of scoring here too but Northwestern keeps it close if not wins it outright.


Hope I've added some credible insight to these games... I'll go over my leans in a bit and get your insight Kid. Thanks for your contributions to the forum as always.
:0074

Great stuff.....That`s what this thread is all about :toast:

 

[NBA_Kid]

Good luck, Kid! I'm leaning A&M, NW and La Tech myself. I'm on Rutgers though. If by the half it looks like a S Fla blow out, I'll never doubt you. :toast:

Nice....Good luck :toast:

 

[NBA_Kid]

Kid,
One trend that has been very very successful for me over the last 5 years has been betting on teams as small faves following the week that they have turned the proverbial 'corner'.
This week I absolutely love BC -3. Beat Clemson as 7 point dogs at home, going to Wake forest this week. I don't play the letdown factor, and I really can't explain but I am supremely confident in this pick..I normally don't post this stuff in fear of a jinx, but F it, hopefully we can all win..

Another pick I like before I saw the line come out was Duke. I thought they would be 3 point faves and seeing them at a pick at bodog and plus 1.5 at other sites, I'm starting to like them even more.
I think Miami is always a ticking time bomb ready to explode one game, and against Virginia that was it(yes I'm aware Harris got hurt). People will remember Virginia beating a sexy Miami team more then they will Duke beating Navy. I dont think virginia is that good, Duke plays them tough, they are at Duke, and earlyl movement indicates public on Virginia, all factors I like..

As far as your South Florida, they also finally got a huge win for them on National Tv, and there offense is starting to click. BJ is starting to look good, and I think it carries over to tomorrow.

Air Force played their hearts out and lost to Utah. They have to be demoralized and will start out very slow against ARmy.

Any finally , I like Utah to win against TCU. I know TCU is good, but I still don't think they are as great as everyone makes them out to be. Utah football, just as their college basketball, is an extremely tough place to play. Utah is very phsycial and I think they win the game straight up..

So to summarize,
1.) Going as large as I ever go on a play on BC -3 barring any crazy line movement, but I expect to stay at 3 till SAT

2) going to make a play on Duke, fairly large, but going to wait on line movement to see if I can get some more points

3) South Florida or nothing for me, but this will most likely be an action play and nothing big as Rutgers has played them tough as others have pointed out at 10.5 is just too high for my liking

4) I'm probably going to play Army plus 7 for a smallish play if the game remains at 7. I just don't liek the fact I'm betting on Army.

5) I will play Utah if the line doesnt drop too much and if I don't hear a lot of chatter about Utah pulling off the upset. Whenever EVERYONE is making a team, in this case possibly Utah , as a possible outright underdog to win, its just too obvious, i dont liek it, and linesmakers know what everyone will be thinking and still make them a fave..I'm hoping everyone doesnt take Utah as an upset pick and I will be on Utah..

GL this week

Great info greg....very nice :toast:

 

[nDn_Investor]

Hey Kid,

After looking at the Fresno/La Tech match up closer I'm going to go with Fresno. This is a 3 vs 3 trend match. Fresno hasn't covered last 3, and La Tech has covered last 3. I have 69% on La Tech now so even though I'm sure there is some sharp action there, I feel that La Tech is getting some public support here as well, especially after seeing them play Boise and covering. I think this will be a good close game but Fresno will pull away late. You could probably play La Tech 1h and Fresno 2h and hit both lol.

 

[sds222]

:grouphug: LaTech now at -1.5
are they trying to get $ on Fresno or what?
I like LATech even more now :toast:

 

[lawyer2be]

Tennessee ?The Addict

Tennessee ?The Addict

Memphis is good and Tennessee is doing terrible. I would reconsider that pick

 

[HoopsGuru]

memphis is good? please explain.

Last 4 games:

10/2 Lost 48-7 home vs tulsa

10/9 Lost 56-0 at Louisville

10/16 Lost 41-19 home vs so miss

10/30 Lost 56-17 home vs houston

that isn't good.....

 

[rocky mountain]

memphis is good? please explain.

Last 4 games:

10/2 Lost 48-7 home vs tulsa

10/9 Lost 56-0 at Louisville

10/16 Lost 41-19 home vs so miss

10/30 Lost 56-17 home vs houston

that isn't good.....

Memphis is one of the worst teams in college football year to date. Hey hoops i am also from the KOP area!:box2:

 

[the addict]

Memphis is good and Tennessee is doing terrible. I would reconsider that pick

apecciate the opinion....unfortunately I have too disagree with the idea of memphis being a good team. They may be the worst team in college this year, and honestly dont see them being able to do anything vs. Tennessee....I realize that the vols are at the bottom of their conference, but remember what conference were talking about. The SEC teams play the best competition day in and day out, and Tennesse has been right there in a lot of their losses. Memphis has been getting blown off the line on both sides of the ball and honestly are awful. I always love playing SEC teams in spots like this one. Tennesse has had somewhat of a frustrating year, and it only became worse when LSU beat them on the last play of the game, which was actually the 2nd last play of the game If that makes any sense. Tennesse takes out all their frustrations here and rolls vs. a terriible memphis team IMO. But best of luck too ya whatev you decide.

 

[nDn_Investor]

Memphis is good and Tennessee is doing terrible. I would reconsider that pick

I'm a huge Tennessee fan, if you cut me open I'd probably bleed orange. But Historically Memphis has played Tennessee very tough. The VOLS did get the last two covers but prior to that Memphis covered 6 straight including a straight up win over Peyton Manning (I still have nightmares about that game).

Tennessee has nothing to play for. Is it an instate rivalry game? Yes. But Memphis takes this game a lot more serious than Tennessee does which explains all the covers during Tennessee's glory years.

The VOLS remaining schedule is Ole Miss, Vandy, and Kentucky. If they somehow run the table they will be bowl eligible believe it or not. They can't risk injuries or running up the score here.

This game will be boring, low scoring, and ugly.

I would say Memphis and under with the VOLS winning a 23-17 type of game. I'd advise against playing these 20 pt spreads involving inferior teams.

If you want to lay 20+ take Boise because at least you know they are good for 40+. Tennessee at times isn't even good enough for the spread they are favored by. I can remember 2-3 times off the top of my head where Tennessee was favored by 20-30 pts and didn't even score 20.


Good luck.
:0corn

 

[kcwolf]

this thread reminds me of the 90's Jack.

:toast:

 

[sds222]

LaTech -2 now:0corn :00hour

 

[Betone]

Memphis is good and Tennessee is doing terrible. I would reconsider that pick

Are you fucking kidding me..............that is the dumb ist post yet...........:facepalm:

 

[Raul Flamingo]

Nice thread Kid, great info by all parties involved!
What are the final picks gonna be?!? :0corn