This weeks lines are here...

[the addict]

I thought you liked those line drop plays?

Public on Oregon st 73%.

See how the line shakes out till saturday.

ya i come up with my plays using different stats and numbers and then watch line movement...with how i figure out plays I came out with oregon st as a play. That is why I dont like the line movement here in this case, cause its going the wrong way for oregon st. If i had ucla show up as a play, I would love it. Since I had oregon st as a potential play, I am saying I will prolly lay off it now

 

[the addict]

you are master of line movements kid I always check your threads for what you think...im glad your posting more during the week that helps out immensly.!!!!

 

[the addict]

if i can get the number below 10 at anypoint im jumpin on it....pretty steady at 10-10.5 right now, but soon as I see a 9.5 im takin it i think.

 

[rocky mountain]

Some lines have moved.....


Oklahoma---Huge public play....4--3.5--3...1 point drop.....Texas A&M might be a play.


Oregon st---Big public play.....Line went from 7 to 5....UCLA might keep it close.

SMU....Another huge public play....This line went from 8 to 6.5......That`s what i like.....When a big public play goes from 2 scores to 1 score....Texas El Paso might get my money.

Miami....Went from 11 to 8.....That drop might be because of Harris being hurt....If he plays and it stays on 8 or drops even more....Maryland could be a play.

So Miss.....Another huge public play.....Line went from 10 to 9.5....Tulane could be a play.

Missouri.....Line went from 5.5 to 4.....Of course the public loves them....They still might be dizzy from the Nebraska game....Texas Tech might be a play.

Penn st.....6.5 to 5.5.....Northwestern might win SU.

THANKS KID FOR ALL YOUR HELP, YOU ARE THE NORTON ANTI-VIRUS OF TRAP GAMES FOR US MAD-JACKERS. :0074

 

[NBA_Kid]

if i can get the number below 10 at anypoint im jumpin on it....pretty steady at 10-10.5 right now, but soon as I see a 9.5 im takin it i think.

South Florida???

I wouldn`t worry if they were giving 14.....Seriously,Siuth Florida romps in my opinion.

 

[NBA_Kid]

I see another line moving in the wrong direction....

Fresno-Louisiana Tech

Fresno opened up at -2....Down to -1

Public all over Fresno 64%

Fresno is 5-2....Tech 3-5.


I cant believe that Tech will beat Fresno.....I guess they will.

So far.....

1-UCLA +4.5
2-Louisiana Tech +1
3-Kent +3
4-Texas A&M +3
5-Duke +1.5
6-Indiana +17
7-Texas El Paso +6.5
8-Northwestern +5.5
9-South Florida -10.5

 

[NBA_Kid]

I see another line moving in the wrong direction....

Fresno-Louisiana Tech

Fresno opened up at -2....Down to -1

Public all over Fresno 64%

Fresno is 5-2....Tech 3-5.


I cant believe that Tech will beat Fresno.....I guess they will.

So far.....

1-UCLA +4.5
2-Louisiana Tech +1
3-Kent +3
4-Texas A&M +3
5-Duke +1.5
6-Indiana +17
7-Texas El Paso +6.5
8-Northwestern +5.5
9-South Florida -10.5

All of those plays that i posted are all just line moves or lines out of whack.....Nothing is a play just yet....Come Saturday,i will probably have between 4-6 plays.

I`m 99% sure South Florida is a play at -10.5...

I will update some more movement tomorrow.

 

[LonghornMM]

Kid, I get what you're saying about reverse line movements and how Vegas sets trap lines. However, here is something to consider about Texas A&M.

A&M is getting to much credit by the oddsmakers for their wins against a pathetic Kansas team and a subpar Texas Tech team. Yes, Tannehill is an upgrade at QB over Johnson, but the A&M defense can't stop anyone, and they won't stop OU all day IMO. Also, Kyle Field is not that tough of a place to play like it used to be, with the Aggies having around a .500 record at home against Big 12 teams since joining the Big 12.

 

[kcwolf]

too much credit by the oddsmakers

doesn't happen

 

[LonghornMM]

Line is down to OU -3. I do admit that this line makes no sense and does look like a trap. IMO OU should be favored by at least two touchdowns. I follow the Big 12 very closely and A&M is not a good team. They're poorly coached and have a horrendous defense. Something smells about the line though. I'll proceed with caution this week and see how this line moves, but no way in hell I'd be on A&M. It'll be OU or nothing for me.

 

[NBA_Kid]

Line is down to OU -3. I do admit that this line makes no sense and does look like a trap. IMO OU should be favored by at least two touchdowns. I follow the Big 12 very closely and A&M is not a good team. They're poorly coached and have a horrendous defense. Something smells about the line though. I'll proceed with caution this week and see how this line moves, but no way in hell I'd be on A&M. It'll be OU or nothing for me.

I agree...No doubt about it....The Sooners 7-1 ranked 9th in the country(I think)are head over heels better then A&M....I just think that Temple and Oklahoma only laying 3 when they are huge public plays is fishy.

Have a better view of things come Saturday.

Good luck this weekend :toast:

 

[NBA_Kid]

Line is down to OU -3. I do admit that this line makes no sense and does look like a trap. IMO OU should be favored by at least two touchdowns. I follow the Big 12 very closely and A&M is not a good team. They're poorly coached and have a horrendous defense. Something smells about the line though. I'll proceed with caution this week and see how this line moves, but no way in hell I'd be on A&M. It'll be OU or nothing for me.

I checked out there defensive numbers....They only give up 21.5 points a game.....They seem like they can stuff the run....Only giving up 95 yards a game on the ground....That`s saying a lot in college when you can hold teams under a 100 yards a game on the ground....Both teams average 35 points a game....A&M rushes for 163 yards a game....Now that`s a running game....Numbers are very similar.....Oklahoma gives up 141 yards on the ground.......

A&M dont look that bad with the numbers....we`ll see.

 

[sds222]

I checked out there defensive numbers....They only give up 21.5 points a game.....They seem like they can stuff the run....Only giving up 95 yards a game on the ground....
A&M dont look that bad with the numbers....we`ll see.

One thing about A&M's #'s is the teams they've played don't run well or very much, MO., Ok St etc.. so they are a little inflated or deflated actually.

Anyway I love this thread and wanna thank you for the great input Kid and Addict, and everyone else :toast:

 

[NBA_Kid]

One thing about A&M's #'s is the teams they've played don't run well or very much, MO., Ok St etc.. so they are a little inflated or deflated actually.

Anyway I love this thread and wanna thank you for the great input Kid and Addict, and everyone else :toast:

No problem.....It is a good thread....Because i will say this.....Some of you guys are talking me off Texas A&M...LOL.

Good imput....Like i said before....See how the lines shape up come late saturday morning.....Oklahoma moved to 3.5 at my book.

:toast:

 

[Jord20]

Don't get off A&M, Kid... it's a winner!! You know as well as anyone, if the line doesn't look right, it's probably not right. The ones that seem so easy (like Okla -3) usually do not win. You have the odds in your favor. All that being said, Okla is very overrated anyway. They have looked very mediocre at times this season.. for a reason.Cinn, utah st and Air force all were able to score them... i see A&M putting up at least 30, maybe 40 here.

 

[NBA_Kid]

Don't get off A&M, Kid... it's a winner!! You know as well as anyone, if the line doesn't look right, it's probably not right. The ones that seem so easy (like Okla -3) usually do not win. You have the odds in your favor. All that being said, Okla is very overrated anyway. They have looked very mediocre at times this season.. for a reason.Cinn, utah st and Air force all were able to score them... i see A&M putting up at least 30, maybe 40 here.

I still have them on the page....LOL.....Not getting rid of them just yet.

I see them scoring also....I actually see them running at will.

Saturday cant come soon enough :toast:

 

[nDn_Investor]

I still have them on the page....LOL.....Not getting rid of them just yet.

I see them scoring also....I actually see them running at will.

Saturday cant come soon enough :toast:

I agree with you guys on A&M, I think they are finally hitting their stride and Oklahoma is still going to be reeling from that Mizzou loss. Yes they beat Colorado but I think we can find 11 people on this forum and field a team that can beat Colorado.

I'm on Boise big time. All I hear on the forums is that Hawaii is underrated and I that they can't believe the line is soooo high. I'm like really??? The line should be at least 4-7 pts more, but it's not because Hawaii has won 6 in a row.

I believe Boise knows this is their last chance to make a BCS statement as the rest of their schedule is soft. Boise big... they will steamroll Hawaii and have this number covered at halftime.

Still looking at the rest of the board.
:toast:

 

[LonghornMM]

Don't get off A&M, Kid... it's a winner!! You know as well as anyone, if the line doesn't look right, it's probably not right. The ones that seem so easy (like Okla -3) usually do not win. You have the odds in your favor. All that being said, Okla is very overrated anyway. They have looked very mediocre at times this season.. for a reason.Cinn, utah st and Air force all were able to score them... i see A&M putting up at least 30, maybe 40 here.

Jord, fair points, but don't judge OU solely on those early games. Look how they've played against Texas, Iowa St., Mizzou and Colorado. I would caution anyone on betting on A&M. I can't say this enough. They're a very poorly coached team! Both teams have a good offense and I would side with OU there though. Compare the two teams' defense and it's no comparison. No way A&M will put up 30 or 40 against OU's defense.

FWIW I hate both schools. I have no preference other than making money on this game.

 

[greggraffin]

Kid,
One trend that has been very very successful for me over the last 5 years has been betting on teams as small faves following the week that they have turned the proverbial 'corner'.
This week I absolutely love BC -3. Beat Clemson as 7 point dogs at home, going to Wake forest this week. I don't play the letdown factor, and I really can't explain but I am supremely confident in this pick..I normally don't post this stuff in fear of a jinx, but F it, hopefully we can all win..

Another pick I like before I saw the line come out was Duke. I thought they would be 3 point faves and seeing them at a pick at bodog and plus 1.5 at other sites, I'm starting to like them even more.
I think Miami is always a ticking time bomb ready to explode one game, and against Virginia that was it(yes I'm aware Harris got hurt). People will remember Virginia beating a sexy Miami team more then they will Duke beating Navy. I dont think virginia is that good, Duke plays them tough, they are at Duke, and earlyl movement indicates public on Virginia, all factors I like..

As far as your South Florida, they also finally got a huge win for them on National Tv, and there offense is starting to click. BJ is starting to look good, and I think it carries over to tomorrow.

Air Force played their hearts out and lost to Utah. They have to be demoralized and will start out very slow against ARmy.

Any finally , I like Utah to win against TCU. I know TCU is good, but I still don't think they are as great as everyone makes them out to be. Utah football, just as their college basketball, is an extremely tough place to play. Utah is very phsycial and I think they win the game straight up..

So to summarize,
1.) Going as large as I ever go on a play on BC -3 barring any crazy line movement, but I expect to stay at 3 till SAT

2) going to make a play on Duke, fairly large, but going to wait on line movement to see if I can get some more points

3) South Florida or nothing for me, but this will most likely be an action play and nothing big as Rutgers has played them tough as others have pointed out at 10.5 is just too high for my liking

4) I'm probably going to play Army plus 7 for a smallish play if the game remains at 7. I just don't liek the fact I'm betting on Army.

5) I will play Utah if the line doesnt drop too much and if I don't hear a lot of chatter about Utah pulling off the upset. Whenever EVERYONE is making a team, in this case possibly Utah , as a possible outright underdog to win, its just too obvious, i dont liek it, and linesmakers know what everyone will be thinking and still make them a fave..I'm hoping everyone doesnt take Utah as an upset pick and I will be on Utah..

GL this week

 

[NBA_Kid]

Oklahoma went back down to 3.....I like that....I rather have A&M at 3 opposed to 3.5.....Just one of those things.


If today was Saturday.....These would be my plays.

1-Texas A&M +3.....This play would fall under 2 categories....Fade the public 79% on the Sooners....And whacked out line....What i mean by that is....The Sooners are 7-1 and ranked #9 in the country and are only laying 3 points when it should be a boat load more....Let`s face it...They should be at least a 7-10 point favorite in this game.

2-Kent St +3......3 categories.....Fade the public...Line drop and whacked out line....At the moment Temple is the biggest public play of the day at 80%....The line went from 3.5 to 3....And lets face it....Temple is decent this season at 7-2...Kent is 4-4....This line should be about 7-10 also....Kent might get this sucker SU....Vegas will get richer off this play.

3-Louisiana Tech +1....3 categories.....Fade the public,Fresno has 61% on there side....Line went from 2 to 1....And Fresno is only a 1 point favorite in this game....It`s not Xmas just yet....Fresno is 5-2...Tech is 3-5....Fresno has sucker bet written all over it.

4-UCLA +4.5.....2 categories....This is a fade the public line drop play....72% on Oregon st....Line was as high as 7....Dropped 2.5 points to 4.5.....All indications are this will be a tight game....Probably a field goal either way.

5-UTEP +6.5.....2 Categories....Fade the public,line drop play...66% on SMU....SMU opened up at -8.5....Line dropped under the key # of 6.5....Went from 2 scores to 1 score....That`s a no no.

6-Duke +1.5....2 categories....Virginia has 64% on there side....I really believe this line is whacked....It`s Virginia vs Duke....Public perception is,no way Duke will beat Virginia....Virginia is 4-4...Duke 2-6.....Duke broke there 6 game losing streak by beating Navy on Saturday....Virginia just beat Miami....No way Duke will win 2 in a row....We`ll see!

7-Illinois +3.....Michigan only laying 3 points to Illinois in the big house....Looks easy...Right????....Watch Illinois go through this swiss cheese defense and give Michigan there 4th straight loss.

8-Northwestern +5.5....This is my personal play.

Nothing set in stone just yet....Just talk!