This won't lose. No way this loses. Nope
- Thread starter MadJack
- Start date
:Yep:
im tailing ya
are your ravens gonna roll??????? huge cash fantasy league
gotta decide between BALT or KC DEF in semi finals
$4k at risk so please tell me Baltimore should be able to have a field day on this young QB
im tailing ya
are your ravens gonna roll??????? huge cash fantasy league
gotta decide between BALT or KC DEF in semi finals
$4k at risk so please tell me Baltimore should be able to have a field day on this young QB
Just beware of the homer part of me with the Ravens bet in there. I really think they don't need the 10 points of, I think they lay it on the jags but they are certainly Jekyll and Hyde.
I'll probably parlay the 3 as well.
Here's a good post from that guy Adam I follow.
Oakland @ Kansas City
Open: Kansas City -10
Current: Kansas City -10
Net YPP: Kansas City -8 (KC Home Field = 4.5 points)
Money line: 1.19 (84% implied probability)
I opened this number at Kansas City -10, which is inflated by about 3 to 3.5 points from the true price. I did this with the expectation of getting a lot of Oakland money on this game, and sure enough, Raiders money has been rolling in steady this week. As it stands currently, there has been $2.00 bet on Oakland for each $1 bet on Kansas City.
The make-up of the Raiders is much worse than anyone is aware of. This team is 2-11 and has players running their mouths and picking battles with opposing players. After the win on San Francisco, Twitter battles blew up between the defense of Oakland and Kaepernick. This lack of focus, and false sense of accomplishment was enough to take their mind off the game after their last win, and resulted in a 52-0, franchise worst beat-down at the hands of the Rams.
Kansas City is playing for their playoff lives this week after losing three weeks in a row. The revenge angle for the Chiefs is alive and well in this match-up. The Raiders handed the Chiefs an embarrassing defeat back on November 20[SUP]th[/SUP] to start this three game skid. In true Raider fashion, they let the Chiefs players know, as I mentioned above. Things like that are not forgiven, especially within the division.
The Raiders have fallen to last in the league in terms of Offensive Efficiency as well as Net Yards per Play. The Raiders are gaining just 89% of their opponent?s average allowance per pass play. The Chiefs are holding their opponents to just 91% of their average gain per pass play. If you do the math, you can expect the Raiders to gain just 80% of their average per pass play on Sunday. At a league worst 5.4 yards per pass attempt, the expected average of 4.32 is exactly what you want to hear if like me, you are a Kansas City fan this week.
I can?t see where the Raiders will be able to put up enough points to keep this game within the number. I feel this game gets ugly in a hurry. Kansas City will return the favor and beat up on Oakland by two touchdowns plus.
BET ON KANSAS CITY AT 1.19 FOR $1862.43 (15.93%)TO WIN $353.86
San Francisco @ Seattle
Open: Seattle -10
Current: Seattle -10
Net YPP Line: Seattle -10 (Seattle Home Field = 4.5)
Money line: 1.22 (82% implied probability)
How is this for a ?telling? stat?
Way back in May, I, (as did many oddsmakers around the United States) released lines for each regular season game. I listed the Seattle Seahawks as 3 point favorites in Week 15 vs. the San Francisco 49ers. In the USA they were as high as -3.5.
Now, seven months later here in Week 15 and the Seattle Seahawks are 10 point favorites. The 7 point difference is bigger than any other game this season. It is also a clear indicator of just how far the 49ers have fallen.
(Keep in mind that this line was closed when the season began and re-opened earlier this week. Since, the re-open at -10, our customers have bet $1.45 on San Francisco for each $1 on Seattle.)
49ers coach Jim Harbaugh is on the trading block - there are some online Sportsbooks already taking bets on which team, pro or college, he will be coaching next season. This will be the first time the team has been a double digit underdog since Harbaugh took over.
Offensively, this team is night and day from a year ago. Superstar, now turned semi-bust, Colin Kaepernick is the only quarterback in the NFL who has yet to throw a touchdown in the 4[SUP]th[/SUP] quarter this season. The once superior running attack has now fell to 25[SUP]th[/SUP] in the league in efficiency gaining just 95% of their opponents average allowance per rush.
This team is a disaster top to bottom. To make matters worse, they have to play Seattle, their biggest rival, who is the hottest team in the NFL.
Seattle is the only team in the league right now to have a positive efficiency rating on both rushing/passing offense and defense. Seattle gains 112% of their opponents average allowance and hold opponents to 88% of their average gain. Seattle also ranks 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] in Net Yards per Play.
The Seahawks defense has returned to expected standards allowed just two touchdowns in the last 12 quarters of play. They should have no problem shutting down the 49ers, a team they know so well, for the second time in four weeks at home.
This game is a major eye test for many bettors. No one has seen San Francisco with a number this big beside their name in a few years. If you are able to go with your head, over your eyes and go with Seattle as I have this week, you will get the most out of your dollar.
This game gets ugly. Seattle wins big.
BET ON SEATTLE AT 1.22 FOR $1825.44 (15.2%) TO WIN $401.60
My email address is: adamchernoff92@gmail.com
Good luck with the Chiefs this week.......did you know they are 3/16 as a div home fave avg margin of victory is -1.3 or that they are 1/10/1 as HF to the Raiders......AMOV -2.4
He sat down next to fellow outside linebacker <nobr>Terrell Suggs
</nobr> and did some calculations on where it put them in the race to be the NFL?s top sack duo. The two were fully aware of not only how many sacks they had, but their top competition out in Denver, too.No, they weren?t leading at the time, but they are now.
Dumervil (16) and Suggs (8.5) have combined for 24.5 sacks this season. They already have topped the Ravens? previous franchise duo sack record set by Trevor Pryce and Adalius Thomas (24 sacks) in 2006. Now they want to finish as the league leaders.
Denver?s Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware are on their heels with a combined 23 sacks. Buffalo?s Mario Wiliams and Marcell Dareus aren?t too far behind either with 22.
?I?m going to downplay it as much as I can. We want to get after the passer every week, but we also want to be up there in numbers as a duo,? Suggs said with a grin.
?I think we got a tremendous amount of disrespect during the offseason that we weren?t even considered amongst the top duo. But I think that?ll probably change come this next offseason.?
Being recognized as part of the league?s top duo is nothing new for Dumervil. He and Miller led the NFL with 29.5 sacks in 2012. In 2009, when Dumervil had a career-high 17 sacks, he and Vonnie Holliday were also in the running.
?I?ve been there before twice, so I definitely want to do that with Terrell,? Dumervil said. ?He?s been disruptive on his side. It allows me to have one-on-ones, and vice versa. So, we both can take advantage of one-on-ones. It definitely helps our defense.?
The Ravens pass rush is largely helping keep the defense afloat considering all the injuries in the secondary. If Baltimore can force opponents into passing situations, either by stuffing the run on early downs or by getting a lead, Dumervil and Suggs can feast.
It?s what Baltimore envisioned when it brought in Dumervil last offseason. Now it?s coming to fruition.
Suggs and Dumervil had explosive first halves to the season last year. Dumervil had 8.5 sacks in the first nine games and Suggs had nine in his first eight.
But they trailed off in the second half. Dumervil had just one sack in his final seven games, in part due to a high-ankle sprain that forced him out of one game entirely. Suggs notched one sack in his final eight contests.
This year, Dumervil and Suggs are both healthy and mindful to stay that way down the stretch.
?It?s just being pros, taking care of your body,? Dumervil said. ?Terrell is the ultimate pro with that ? cold tub, working out, eating healthy. Those things go a long way and it shows at the end of the year. It?s not about who works the hardest. It?s who works the smartest.?
Last week, Dumervil became the Ravens? franchise single-season sack leader last week with 3.5 takedowns in Miami, breaking a 13-year old record previously held by Peter Boulware.
He doesn?t expect it to last forever, saying ?records are meant to be broken.? Dumervil previously set the Broncos? all-time single-season sack record with 17 in 2009. Miller topped him three years later with 18.5.
But for now, being atop the Ravens? franchise list means something special to Dumervil.
?When I decided to come to Baltimore, it was one of the reasons I wanted to come here because of the proud defensive [tradition] that has been here ? Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Peter Boulware, those guys,? he said. ?So, to be a part of something like that, it?s humbling.?
Now he has one more individual goal on the horizon.
Dumervil has a piece of paper simply with ?23? written on it taped to the inside of his locker. That?s howmany sacks it would take to break New York Giants Hall of Famer Michael Strahan?s all-time NFL single-season sack record, set in 2001.
?Twenty-three. It seems like it?s so far away, right?? Dumervil said.
Maybe not. This week?s prey, the Jacksonville Jaguars, have allowed the most sacks in the league by far with 54. The next closest team, the Washington Redskins, have allowed 46. By comparison, the Ravens have surrendered 16.
- Mar 19, 2006
- 38,783
- 633
- 113
- 75
I can't go by trends, especially when most of those games were played more than 2 years ago.
Any one of those 3 teams could lose straight up, it's the NFL, but I'm betting they won't.
Good luck and thanks for the reply. :0008
:shrug:
You don't like the tease? And you're a teaser bettor?
Tell me what you don't like?
Nothing but respect for you but you already know that. :0008
- Mar 19, 2006
- 38,783
- 633
- 113
- 75
I think the weak link to the tease is the Ravens because we all know they can shit the bed sometimes. It depends on which Joe shows up today. Ever since he made the big bucks he seems like a lot of the rest that take the money and lose interest. His life is made in the shade now. He's definitely not the competitor or leader like Manning, Brady, and Rogers. No where near that class, I'm sorry to finally admit, but, he's the best the Ravens have ever had and we (most Ravens fans) like him.
:0008
This game gets ugly. Seattle wins big.
BET ON SEATTLE AT 1.22 FOR $1825.44 (15.2%) TO WIN $401.60
that guy makes alot of sense to me :shrug:
BET ON SEATTLE AT 1.22 FOR $1825.44 (15.2%) TO WIN $401.60
that guy makes alot of sense to me :shrug:
he`s that kind of competitor....he`s just not that caliber talent...he`s not a rah-rah guy.....id say he`s in the next level right below those guys...he`s not a fantasy football darling(all that fantasy bullshit skews the criteria regarding what actually constitures a successful qb in the nfl)....
he hasn`t had a "great" young receiver like ryan,dalton,rivers,romo,rorthlifberger etc have or have had...ozzie spends all our resources on young defenders providing flacco with a stream of has beens and never was`(steve smith/owen daniels/Justin forsett)and yet they still find a way to stay competitive in spite of a defense that can`t hold a lead on an opponent`s do or die last possession......
all those resources on defense and yet we have the worst secondary in the nfl....we`d have at least two more wins if the d would ever sack up with a lead on an opponent`s last possession.....
flacco`s not our problem.....the problem is the front office treats the offense like a stepsister...
I agree with you, bud. I'm happy with Joe but I still think he takes the game too casual and he's not a leader. Look at Manning and Brady when they're on the bench. They are looking at stats and formations and talking to upstairs. Joes looks like he's thinking about where to go for dinner after the game. Seriously.
Funny cause after reading that bet I instantly thought of you. Wish I could make money gambling on the fact that Im not the only one in that regard. :nooo:
