"You can't use line information to pick winners." wasn't my statement. That is what others often tell me. I don't agree. The key word is line "information" and not necessarily movement.
To answer your question of have I ever noticed a pattern I would have to answer "No", but I haven't looked for one either. It may be there.
Whew, this is getting pretty technical. Let me try and explain exactly what I look for and how I try to find it.
I use line information for only two things.
(1) Identify big stores taking positions.
(2) Identify syndicate action.
You could say I use it for only on thing because both of the above things fall under this heading.
"Follow the money." (Follow doesn't necessarily mean do the same thing.)
O/L's - I look to see where different stores open their numbers compared to Roxy's opening line. It isn't Roxborough any more, but the opening line still has it's beginning at his company. For those of you who are fairly new, Michael Roxborough became the main oddsmaker back in the eighties after Bob Martin retired. Martin set the opening numbers for many years. Nearly every Nevada book and many offshore books get their opening numbers from the company Roxy founded.
Don Best publishes what they call the opening line and I use it. It really doesn't mean a lot. I just scan it to see which side of that number they are on.
Then I wait until enough time has passed to for all the stores I monitor (I use a line service and get real time lines from over 20 stores) to be open and the numbers fairly stable. I then use a column on my worksheet to record the lowest favorite price I see anywhere and the biggest dog price I see anywhere. I call this the Hi-Lo. Believe it or not sometimes on a moneyline you will find variances big enough that the dog at one place might pay more than the favorite costs at another (example -140 favorite back to +143 on the dog).
Next I go to Pinnacle Sports and get their lines and compare them to the Hi-Lo. See
http://www.madjacksports.com/ubb/Forum2/HTML/007668.
I use Pinnacle because they, in my opinion, have the sharpest numbers of any book there is. They deal an eight cent line for huge limits (50K and up by phone).
By comparing Pinnacles lines to the Hi-Lo I can tell when they are taking a position . . . and if they are willing to take a position for the kind of money they will take in wagers I figure I want to be betting on the same side they are. It's really pretty simple.
That is how the FTSM PLAYS are generated.
The other thing I look for is syndicate action and that is somewhat subjective. I am now using Don Best's DBS2K and they make that one pretty easy. You can set it to alert you when certain conditions are met.
I have a list of about 15 books that when any four different books move their lines in the same direction at least five cents in 15 seconds or less it sets off an alert. That is much different than just monitoring line moves. The public can and does move lines, but not at four stores in less than 15 seconds. That is "wise guy" action conming in across the board all at once.
That is what generates the STEAM PLAYS.
That's it. That is all I look for in the lines and to me that is very useful information. The trends and things like that may all be very valid, but that isn't what I am looking for. I just use the lines to follow the money and determine if it is smart money or public money.
If Custer had known what hill the Indians were coming over he would have survived the battle.
NCU
Note: DBS2k costs 500 a month. Other line services like G & J update are less expensive, but I don't know how much they cost. Goldcupsports on this forum sent me a link the other day to a free line service that is only delayed by about two minutes. I don't have the link handy because I prefer my real time service.
Don Best still has Island Express, but it is now delayed 15 minutes . . . and you will have the steam plays here on this forum usually 14 minutes ahead of that.
