interesting read:
By Stephen Nover
Fri, Jul 28, 2006
Keep an eye on the USC-Arkansas game on Sept. 2 of opening week. It?s shaping up to be interesting not only from a football viewpoint but bookmaking one, too.
?This game could illustrate a change between wiseguys becoming squares and squares becoming wiseguys,? says professional handicapper Andy Iskoe.
Figure USC to be around a 10-point favorite. Reggie Bush and Matt Leinart have departed, but the Trojans still are loaded on offense and return possibly the nation?s best set of linebackers.
The Trojans buried the Razorbacks 70-17 last year, easily covering despite laying 30 points.
So you might think that the betting pattern on this season?s matchup would be easy to predict - the public laying whatever number they have to with USC.
But not so fast.
Even though Arkansas endured its first losing seasons under coach Houston Nutt over the past two years, there?s a lot of favorable preseason betting buzz surrounding the Razorbacks.
Some of this stems from Phil Steele?s influential college football magazine. He picks the Razorbacks as one of the surprise teams for ?06.
He`s not alone, either.
?I think the entire world is going to be on Arkansas,? Iskoe says. ?USC suffered a number of key losses. This is a huge revenge game for Arkansas.
?It?s not just because Phil Steele touts them. I think the Razorbacks are going to be a very popular team because they return 19 starters. It?s very unusual to return that many starters.?
These factors are going to get driven home in this age of information, not only in magazines, but on bulletin boards and Internet posting forums.
?There is so much sophistication out there you?re going to see cases made for the underdog,? Iskoe says. ?In the past people never would have thought of underdogs. Now there?s becoming somewhat of a role reversal where recreational bettors are looking for underdogs in the first place.?
Bookmakers can sense this. They already know there is more smart money on college football compared to the NFL. This matchup, though, could turn into a rare instance where the favorite ends up with more value.
Loving the revenge angle, the 19 returning starters and home underdog role, the public jumps on Arkansas. Sharps initially might have been looking to get involved with the Razorbacks, now they will backtrack if the number keeps getting lower and lower.
?Anything in single digits has to be considered a cheap price,? Iskoe says. ?I think there?s actually going to be value on Southern Cal for that game.?
Professional gambler Steve Fezzik even predicts the closing line could have USC favored by just 7 ?. If that indeed becomes the case, look for the professionals to back the favorite and fade public opinion.
Never forget the Trojans still are the Trojans. Unlike most teams, they reload rather than rebuild.
The Trojans have won 48 of their last 52 games. They have had all offseason to prepare for this matchup, and then don?t play for another two weeks. Their focus should be there.
Sure Arkansas looks like it has potential, but starting off against USC certainly isn?t a way to ease into the season.
There are questions about Arkansas? passing attack, both throwing and protecting the quarterback. The Razorbacks finished 110th last year in passing yards.
Plus, none of Arkansas? meager four victories last season was against top competition. They beat Southwest Missouri State, Louisiana-Monroe, Mississippi and Mississippi State.
Now suddenly, the Razorbacks can hang close against powerful USC?
?I?m not that impressed with them as far as their ability to step up in class this year,? Iskoe said of the Razorbacks.
By Stephen Nover
Fri, Jul 28, 2006
Keep an eye on the USC-Arkansas game on Sept. 2 of opening week. It?s shaping up to be interesting not only from a football viewpoint but bookmaking one, too.
?This game could illustrate a change between wiseguys becoming squares and squares becoming wiseguys,? says professional handicapper Andy Iskoe.
Figure USC to be around a 10-point favorite. Reggie Bush and Matt Leinart have departed, but the Trojans still are loaded on offense and return possibly the nation?s best set of linebackers.
The Trojans buried the Razorbacks 70-17 last year, easily covering despite laying 30 points.
So you might think that the betting pattern on this season?s matchup would be easy to predict - the public laying whatever number they have to with USC.
But not so fast.
Even though Arkansas endured its first losing seasons under coach Houston Nutt over the past two years, there?s a lot of favorable preseason betting buzz surrounding the Razorbacks.
Some of this stems from Phil Steele?s influential college football magazine. He picks the Razorbacks as one of the surprise teams for ?06.
He`s not alone, either.
?I think the entire world is going to be on Arkansas,? Iskoe says. ?USC suffered a number of key losses. This is a huge revenge game for Arkansas.
?It?s not just because Phil Steele touts them. I think the Razorbacks are going to be a very popular team because they return 19 starters. It?s very unusual to return that many starters.?
These factors are going to get driven home in this age of information, not only in magazines, but on bulletin boards and Internet posting forums.
?There is so much sophistication out there you?re going to see cases made for the underdog,? Iskoe says. ?In the past people never would have thought of underdogs. Now there?s becoming somewhat of a role reversal where recreational bettors are looking for underdogs in the first place.?
Bookmakers can sense this. They already know there is more smart money on college football compared to the NFL. This matchup, though, could turn into a rare instance where the favorite ends up with more value.
Loving the revenge angle, the 19 returning starters and home underdog role, the public jumps on Arkansas. Sharps initially might have been looking to get involved with the Razorbacks, now they will backtrack if the number keeps getting lower and lower.
?Anything in single digits has to be considered a cheap price,? Iskoe says. ?I think there?s actually going to be value on Southern Cal for that game.?
Professional gambler Steve Fezzik even predicts the closing line could have USC favored by just 7 ?. If that indeed becomes the case, look for the professionals to back the favorite and fade public opinion.
Never forget the Trojans still are the Trojans. Unlike most teams, they reload rather than rebuild.
The Trojans have won 48 of their last 52 games. They have had all offseason to prepare for this matchup, and then don?t play for another two weeks. Their focus should be there.
Sure Arkansas looks like it has potential, but starting off against USC certainly isn?t a way to ease into the season.
There are questions about Arkansas? passing attack, both throwing and protecting the quarterback. The Razorbacks finished 110th last year in passing yards.
Plus, none of Arkansas? meager four victories last season was against top competition. They beat Southwest Missouri State, Louisiana-Monroe, Mississippi and Mississippi State.
Now suddenly, the Razorbacks can hang close against powerful USC?
?I?m not that impressed with them as far as their ability to step up in class this year,? Iskoe said of the Razorbacks.
