THIS IS MY BIGGEST BET OF THE YEAR. I am betting 80% of my winnings this year on USC over Michigan. I used 3 different sportsbooks, and I got -6 and -6.5. I waited until this week to wager on this game because I wanted to make sure USC did not get injured in practice. USC wass 1 OL or 1 LB injury away. Very little depth at those 2 positions mostly because of injuries. USC has suffered zero injuries in bowl practices mostly due to Carroll not practicing in pads.
I have won little over 12k this year and I am betting 9k on USC. Yep, you can call me crazy and say I am using poor money management, but this is what I chose to do. I won 7-8k last year and took it all out and kept my profit. So I am ok if I lose this bet plus gambling is recreational for me and not income use. I was debating on whether or not to post how much I am wagering, but the reason I chose too is to show how much I won compared to how much I am betting so you know exactly how strong of a pick this is for me personally. Some of you may not believe me and I really do not care. If you want, i can prove it with posting my betting tickets. Last year I won a lot of $$$ on USC, this year not so much because I felt Vegas had USC # but I was wrong because USC has been covering machine. This is my first HUGE bet on USC this year. I think USC will win by 20pts in this game. First of all, there are a lot of similarities in what people are saying about USC vs IOWA last year. You know what USC did to Iowa. I think USC repeats their same performance, except Michigan is better IMO than Iowa last year, but this USC offense is better than last years USC offense.
Here are "some" reasons why I like USC so much over Michigan. This is a lengthy post but hopefully it gives you insight why I like USC so much and let you form your own opinion.
#1 USC has clear coaching advantage over Michigan. I think this game might be close at halftime, and if it is, I will not be worried because USC owns teams in the 2h. This coaching staff at USC makes incredible 2h adjustments. Carroll and Chow have seen Michigan play on tape, and know what is coming. Carr and staff DO NOT KNOW WHAT is coming from USC because USC has too many weapons and Michigan has not faced an offense as potent as USC with such a great running/passing game. Which leads me to point #2?
#2 Michigan defense is solid stat wise but if you look deeper they will have a ton of problems stopping USC. Michigan has not faced an offense half as good as USC and with half as many dangerous weapons. HUGE UNKNOWN on how Michigan defense will react. I can tell you this, Chow is going to throw the playbook at Michigan, and he has been holding back plays this year. He will not against Michigan. Michigan strength is pass defense, and I am telling you Chow will attack that from the beginning. He will succeed as well, and then the pass will set up the run. USC wants to win the psychological advantage early on and to do this they much pass successfully against the great Michigan pass defense. Ohio St. put up 21pts against Michigan defense, USC will put up over 40pts. Can Michigan score over 30pts against USC?????
#3 USC defense only weakness is their LB's pass defense, especially passes over the middle. So what does Carroll do? He plays soft zone which allows opponents WR's to catch ball but then get tackled right away. Navarre (especially on road) will be prone to making mistakes especially if USC defense will force him to make many completions on every drive. More passes he attempts, the higher prob. he will make mistakes. USC will shut down Perry, if they don't, USC will lose. USC will make Navarre beat them and he can't. Unfortunately I think Michigan might find success early in the game offensively but as USC defense has done all year, they take away what your doing right, and force you to succeed at your weakness.
#4 USC === SPEED Michigan will be over-whelmed by the speed of USC. Especially USC DL and offense as a whole. The USC DL is very very quick. I know Michigan has good/great OL and they are big boys. Iowa did too last year and those boys are or were going to play in NFL. USC DL dominated them, and this years DL is year older. USC DL eats up big slow OL. Trust me. I don't think USC will get too much pressure on Navarre because the DL will be concentrating on stopping Perry, which = USC VICTORY! Navarre not being mobile REALLY hurts Michigan. USC will get to him if he holds onto the ball too long, with only a 4 man rush.
#5 Michigan front 7 is very average. They do not stop the run very well and do not pressure the qb well at all. What does this mean? It means your toast. USC has a solid OL and they give Lienart great pass protection. I think only way to stop this USC offense is to pressure Lienart (who is not mobile) but then if you do pressure him, Chow just puts him into 3 step drops. I know Michigan is going try and take Mike Williams out of game with double teams (UCLA single covered him and got torched), but unfortunately for Michigan USC has COLBERT (most under-rated WR in nation) as #2 WR. If that is not enough, USC 3rd string tight end is back from injury and he is 6.9 ft tall, and is decent player. Oh no, USC also has Brandon Hancock healthy (been out for last 5weeks) and he is VERY DANGEROUS catching FB. Very good hands and fast and big and strong. TD MACHINE. Ok ok, lets pretend Michigan has all these guys covered, USC has phenom future heisman winner REGGIE BUSH at RB, who happens to have hands as good as any WR on the team. NO LB can cover him (sprinter speed, 4.3) and very very dangerous. OK, lets pretend he is stopped too, USC then can try and find freshman Steve Smith (who was a top 5 WR out of high school in nation last year) who has involved himself in the USC offense in the last 3 games. Has not dropped a ball and scored 2 TD's. He is Colbert clone with maybe more talent. Do not forget about freshman RB Lendale White, USC?s bruising RB who also was a top 10 RB in nation out of High school. Let me see, oh yeah, USC 4th WR is Whitney Lewis, and he is healthy now, and he happened to be the #1 WR in nation last year out of high school. He has not had his coming out party but has had monster practices. Could he be a suprise in the game? I might sound like a homer, but do yourself favor and look up the USC stats and watch the games and all the guys i mentioned are HUGE THREATS. Give Chow a few weeks to gameplan and use these targets, your toast. Oh yeah, Michigan has not faced an offense this good nor have they faced an offense this "fast." Speed kills, and I do not think Michigan defense will match up.
#6 USC will win the turnover battle. I am confident in that. An added bonus, Michigan is not very good on special teams. I wish USC had a punt returner who was a threat, but unfortunately they do not. So no bonus pts for USC on punt/kick off returns. If it is a close game, USC FG kicker will choke, but if it is that close, I will lose my wager anyhow, so not a real factor. Although I am a diehard Trojan and want at least a victory, plus a cover. So I am treading on thin waters because I will lose 9k with a USC win by 3 but USC wins split NC. But I still will have 3k in profit if that happens.
#7 An added bonus but I really do not care, the Pac 10 has looked very well so far in the bowl season. USC is battled tested for this game, I am confident in that.
#8
There is one thing i am worried about. Michigan has been practicing in pads, and practicing very hard. GOOD FOR THEM! I think that is plus. USC unfortunately needed to get healthy (yes that USC team that was scoring machine was banged up) so Carroll let his players get healthy (which they somewhat did). USC started practicing in pads recently but how will this affect the USC defense is a concern of mine. Will they tackle well? It might take a little while for USC to get aggressive/physical. By no means will Michigan win because they will be more physical, it just means USC might take a while to adjust. However, USC has practiced without pads many times this year and prior to the season so the team is used to it. Also factor in USC defense all year usually giving up a TD or 2 before making the proper adjustments. I am not too worried about the offense clicking.
My Prediction:
USC leads at half time 24-17
In the 2h USC dominates on both sides of the ball, Perry is completely taken out of game after Michigan falls behind double digits.
USC wins 48-27!!!!!!
I want to wish all of you a Happy New Years as I will be leaving for Big Bear tom. morning and then leaving at 10am to go to the ROSE BOWL!!!!!!! I do have a computer at the cabin but it is really slow, so I might be able to help answer any questions you might have about USC or the game. Good luck everybody on the rest of the bowl games and have a Happy New Year! :toast:
I have won little over 12k this year and I am betting 9k on USC. Yep, you can call me crazy and say I am using poor money management, but this is what I chose to do. I won 7-8k last year and took it all out and kept my profit. So I am ok if I lose this bet plus gambling is recreational for me and not income use. I was debating on whether or not to post how much I am wagering, but the reason I chose too is to show how much I won compared to how much I am betting so you know exactly how strong of a pick this is for me personally. Some of you may not believe me and I really do not care. If you want, i can prove it with posting my betting tickets. Last year I won a lot of $$$ on USC, this year not so much because I felt Vegas had USC # but I was wrong because USC has been covering machine. This is my first HUGE bet on USC this year. I think USC will win by 20pts in this game. First of all, there are a lot of similarities in what people are saying about USC vs IOWA last year. You know what USC did to Iowa. I think USC repeats their same performance, except Michigan is better IMO than Iowa last year, but this USC offense is better than last years USC offense.
Here are "some" reasons why I like USC so much over Michigan. This is a lengthy post but hopefully it gives you insight why I like USC so much and let you form your own opinion.
#1 USC has clear coaching advantage over Michigan. I think this game might be close at halftime, and if it is, I will not be worried because USC owns teams in the 2h. This coaching staff at USC makes incredible 2h adjustments. Carroll and Chow have seen Michigan play on tape, and know what is coming. Carr and staff DO NOT KNOW WHAT is coming from USC because USC has too many weapons and Michigan has not faced an offense as potent as USC with such a great running/passing game. Which leads me to point #2?
#2 Michigan defense is solid stat wise but if you look deeper they will have a ton of problems stopping USC. Michigan has not faced an offense half as good as USC and with half as many dangerous weapons. HUGE UNKNOWN on how Michigan defense will react. I can tell you this, Chow is going to throw the playbook at Michigan, and he has been holding back plays this year. He will not against Michigan. Michigan strength is pass defense, and I am telling you Chow will attack that from the beginning. He will succeed as well, and then the pass will set up the run. USC wants to win the psychological advantage early on and to do this they much pass successfully against the great Michigan pass defense. Ohio St. put up 21pts against Michigan defense, USC will put up over 40pts. Can Michigan score over 30pts against USC?????
#3 USC defense only weakness is their LB's pass defense, especially passes over the middle. So what does Carroll do? He plays soft zone which allows opponents WR's to catch ball but then get tackled right away. Navarre (especially on road) will be prone to making mistakes especially if USC defense will force him to make many completions on every drive. More passes he attempts, the higher prob. he will make mistakes. USC will shut down Perry, if they don't, USC will lose. USC will make Navarre beat them and he can't. Unfortunately I think Michigan might find success early in the game offensively but as USC defense has done all year, they take away what your doing right, and force you to succeed at your weakness.
#4 USC === SPEED Michigan will be over-whelmed by the speed of USC. Especially USC DL and offense as a whole. The USC DL is very very quick. I know Michigan has good/great OL and they are big boys. Iowa did too last year and those boys are or were going to play in NFL. USC DL dominated them, and this years DL is year older. USC DL eats up big slow OL. Trust me. I don't think USC will get too much pressure on Navarre because the DL will be concentrating on stopping Perry, which = USC VICTORY! Navarre not being mobile REALLY hurts Michigan. USC will get to him if he holds onto the ball too long, with only a 4 man rush.
#5 Michigan front 7 is very average. They do not stop the run very well and do not pressure the qb well at all. What does this mean? It means your toast. USC has a solid OL and they give Lienart great pass protection. I think only way to stop this USC offense is to pressure Lienart (who is not mobile) but then if you do pressure him, Chow just puts him into 3 step drops. I know Michigan is going try and take Mike Williams out of game with double teams (UCLA single covered him and got torched), but unfortunately for Michigan USC has COLBERT (most under-rated WR in nation) as #2 WR. If that is not enough, USC 3rd string tight end is back from injury and he is 6.9 ft tall, and is decent player. Oh no, USC also has Brandon Hancock healthy (been out for last 5weeks) and he is VERY DANGEROUS catching FB. Very good hands and fast and big and strong. TD MACHINE. Ok ok, lets pretend Michigan has all these guys covered, USC has phenom future heisman winner REGGIE BUSH at RB, who happens to have hands as good as any WR on the team. NO LB can cover him (sprinter speed, 4.3) and very very dangerous. OK, lets pretend he is stopped too, USC then can try and find freshman Steve Smith (who was a top 5 WR out of high school in nation last year) who has involved himself in the USC offense in the last 3 games. Has not dropped a ball and scored 2 TD's. He is Colbert clone with maybe more talent. Do not forget about freshman RB Lendale White, USC?s bruising RB who also was a top 10 RB in nation out of High school. Let me see, oh yeah, USC 4th WR is Whitney Lewis, and he is healthy now, and he happened to be the #1 WR in nation last year out of high school. He has not had his coming out party but has had monster practices. Could he be a suprise in the game? I might sound like a homer, but do yourself favor and look up the USC stats and watch the games and all the guys i mentioned are HUGE THREATS. Give Chow a few weeks to gameplan and use these targets, your toast. Oh yeah, Michigan has not faced an offense this good nor have they faced an offense this "fast." Speed kills, and I do not think Michigan defense will match up.
#6 USC will win the turnover battle. I am confident in that. An added bonus, Michigan is not very good on special teams. I wish USC had a punt returner who was a threat, but unfortunately they do not. So no bonus pts for USC on punt/kick off returns. If it is a close game, USC FG kicker will choke, but if it is that close, I will lose my wager anyhow, so not a real factor. Although I am a diehard Trojan and want at least a victory, plus a cover. So I am treading on thin waters because I will lose 9k with a USC win by 3 but USC wins split NC. But I still will have 3k in profit if that happens.
#7 An added bonus but I really do not care, the Pac 10 has looked very well so far in the bowl season. USC is battled tested for this game, I am confident in that.
#8 There is one thing i am worried about. Michigan has been practicing in pads, and practicing very hard. GOOD FOR THEM! I think that is plus. USC unfortunately needed to get healthy (yes that USC team that was scoring machine was banged up) so Carroll let his players get healthy (which they somewhat did). USC started practicing in pads recently but how will this affect the USC defense is a concern of mine. Will they tackle well? It might take a little while for USC to get aggressive/physical. By no means will Michigan win because they will be more physical, it just means USC might take a while to adjust. However, USC has practiced without pads many times this year and prior to the season so the team is used to it. Also factor in USC defense all year usually giving up a TD or 2 before making the proper adjustments. I am not too worried about the offense clicking.
My Prediction:
USC leads at half time 24-17
In the 2h USC dominates on both sides of the ball, Perry is completely taken out of game after Michigan falls behind double digits.
USC wins 48-27!!!!!!
I want to wish all of you a Happy New Years as I will be leaving for Big Bear tom. morning and then leaving at 10am to go to the ROSE BOWL!!!!!!! I do have a computer at the cabin but it is really slow, so I might be able to help answer any questions you might have about USC or the game. Good luck everybody on the rest of the bowl games and have a Happy New Year! :toast:
