Weak 4 HSF/FBS & FCS (9/19-9/21)

Musca

Registered User
Forum Member
Mar 3, 2005
2,002
15
38
Fort Worth, TX
FCS:

10 Unit

Maine/Colgate Over 46....*I ate crow in Week 1 thinking Colgate would continue their Defensive dominance but that theory was tossed early and for some reason the book is still hanging numbers that reflect last year's team. Colgate isn't playing a good brand of D and Maine should exploit. Think this is safe.

Mercer +10 & Over 68.......*Yes, I know how good Furman is but Mercer is no slouch and I like this QB Riddle who leads the SOCon with 11 TD passes. Bears should be 3-0 but the Riddler threw 2 pick 6 to Austin Peay, so that was that. Furman has 2 losses to FBS teams but I haven't been terribly impressed with VTech and that 4 point loss to Georgia St is kinda a head scratcher. 68 points is a lot but these are the best Offenses in the SOCon and 2 of the better ones in the FCS (Bears avr 42.7 ppg and Paladins 35)...Mercer is running an evolved pistol/spread Off and Furmans QB Grainger is a dual threat with already 613 pass yards/97 rush (4th in total Off)... History between these two last couple of years has been close and I think this easily surpasses the number.

JMU/Chattanooga Over 42 *Love this Over as JMU could do this by themselves. JMU is outgaining opponents 456-269 total yards pg. Dukes QB DiNucci has passed for 617 yards w/6 TDs... Mocs have started rough which reflects the low number but they have a very dangerous QB to WR combo that is going to have a good day soon (hopefully tomorrow).

Duquesne/Dayton Under 58'......*Musca likes it and so do I... My number is 10 light and this seems generous.

Long Island/Sacred Heart Under 51' *Musca is on Long Island and I will be following his play but my stronger bet is the Under here as Long Island has a great run D and only allowed 12.9 ppg ly with most of the Defense top tacklers returning. Pioneers finished tied for 1st in the NEC and allowed 22.1 ppg... SH replaces starting QB but returns 10 Defensive Starters. Long Islands first year in the FCS will be interesting but Sharks Off replaces QB, RB and Top 3 WR so this should stay Under.

Wofford/Gardner-Webb Under 47.....*Not sure where Wofford Offense has been only avr 13.5 ppg and 292 Total yards pg... Gardner-Webb numbers are a little off as their 2 losses were to 2 FBS teams. G-W has a great run game behind RB Jaylin Cagle and I expect them to run a bunch in this one. Wofford hasn't had any deep threats but Terriers play good D.

Norfolk St +27'...*This is simply way too many points and Norfolk could very well win this, They return 9 Off Starters and QB Juwan Carter is a 3rd year starter (passed for 2,302 yards ly w/13 TDs but had 13 INT) hopefully his mechanics have improved. 4 of 5 OL return as does 2 of 3 top RBs...... Wrs are a work in progress but I like this offense to stay close.

So Dakota -4...... *Coyotes have had a rough start but this game can get them going in the right direction and I have no confidence in No Colorado..... Coyotes QB Austin Simmons passed for 3,124 yards last year and rushed for another 332. Has 9 of his top pass catchers back and new D Coordinator was brought in to fix a 34.2 ppg leak. Not sure that's been fixed yet after surrendering 54 points last week to Houston Baptist, but the Offense works as they put up 53.....I have no clue why No Colorado has kept this HC there (34-74 overall) (26-62 league) but the 9th year Coach is still putting out a defective product and although QB Jacob Knipp has Pro Scouts excited as the #1 ranked QB to go pro the knock has always been his durability and last week guess what happened at Sac St? He got hurt again so who knows what this weeks offense will look like but if Sac St can beat you by 50 then I expect So Dakota to cover the easy number.


DA Rest....

Lafayette/Albany Over 58.....7 u

UC Davis/No Dakota Over 59.....7 u

UC Davis +25'........5 u

Kennesaw St/Missouri St Over 54......5 u

Tennessee Tech +17'.....6 u

Colombia -5..........8 u *Lions were 6-4 last season with 25 injuries... HC Bagnoli is the active winningest Coach at all levels Lions have 9 players returning that garnered All-Conf Honors last year (**Before you laugh and say well it's the IVY.... I think IVY could be one of the most competitive FCS Conf this year, and there's talent everywhere. Lions return 16 Starters so expect them to end up even better than their 8-2 finish in 2017.

Dartmouth/Jacksonville Under 55'...6 u.. *Always a little tricky to predict exactly how Ivy teams will look in their first game but Dartmouth D was ranked 2nd in the FCS last year only allowing 12 ppg and Big Green return most of their starters on D. Dolphins don't play great D however this is the first game for Dartmouth so I expect the Offense to be groggy after a lot of skill players from 2018 are gone.


Monmouth +23'...& Monmouth /Montana Over 63... 5 u *Monmouth isn't used to playing in front of 24,000+ and that could spell disaster, however, Hawks have won last 8 of 10 and have a career 6,000 yard passer and a scary two headed monster at RB.... They finished as the #2 team in the Big South (behind Kennesaw) and Montana has UC Davis up next so possible look ahead but at any rate, I think this over is about 8 light and Hawks have the athletes to stay in range.

Alabama A&M/Samford Over 74...5 u *Don't fear the big number... There won't be much Defense on display.

Austin Peay/ETSU Over 52'.....6 u

Citadel -17........6 u

Yale -12........7 u *Injury bug kept Yale from full potential last year but returns nearly every position and is the unaminous pick to win the IVY

Arkansas Pine-Bluff/Tennessee St Over 72'......5 u *Another game not going to see much D

See how these go... Gl



I am doing charity event today so plays arefew.

Colgate QB is out.
 

Riff-Raff

Registered
Forum Member
Jul 9, 2016
2,800
20
0
South Lake Tahoe (CA. Side)
Add:

Towson -4....10 u *Towson seems to be playing with a chip on its shoulder and wants JMU bad. First though they need to beat upstart Villanova (picked to finish 9th in CAAl but I expect home cooking to be what the Dr ordered and typically when you see a top talent like all everything RB Shane Simpson went down last week with ACL, tendency is for teams to play with more emotion and energy. Towson has CAA Off POY QB Tom Flacco and he's looked good (should be following Brother Joe to NFL). Biggest improvement has been defensive side of the ball, and bringing in new D Coordinator has Tigers ranked 10th in nation in scoring D. Villanova is quite the surprise getting off to 3-0 start and I like that transfer kid from Campbell (Daniel Smith)... But, Nova's opponents have a combined record of 0-9 and that's something you need to know before dropping hard earned cash on Wildcats here....... Tigers roll

Towson/Nova Over 52......5 u

Fordham +18.......5 u

Alcorn St -4.......7 u *Same type of situation with Braves (ie Towson) Price is pretty reasonable considering Braves are Defending in SWAC Champs) and returned nearly everyone. Braves off to a poor 1-2 start but word on the street is that this is their Super Bowl and big win will move to 2-2 with SWAC Conf starting to get underway. Last year, Braves beat Prairie View 27-13 but this time it's at Home so with all things considered, money on Braves here shouldn't disappoint. Key here is Alcorn D, and although they lost to Mcneese last week (17-14) a closer look at the stats shows Mcneese was 1-15 on 3rd down attempts and Cowboys were shut out in the 2nd Half. Prairie View continues to improve and were picked to finish 2nd in the West but this team doesn't have the same D as Braves will put on field and by all looks, Braves D will make it difficult to score often. I expect Alcorn to have a big day, and QB Johnson was SWAC 2018 POY and it's interesting to see that both programs are very similar to last year's brand, including Coaching and personnel, so now we get Home Cooking and Braves should take this by 10+...

Gl Folks
 
Bet on MyBookie
Top