weasel droppings

gardenweasel

gardenweasel

el guapo
Forum Member
Jan 10, 2002
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"the bunker"
opening week...was gonna take a mulligan...but,no thank you....that`s not how we roll...

1)stoolers +3(-130)...2units....i know....if you really like it why buy the half?...because anything can fricking happen in the nfl...and it`s a road game.....

i follow the ravens very closely....and i was shocked at this line...the stoolers come back pretty much intact...not much change....this is the team that was in the super bowl last year...matter of fact,they`re a perrenial power....elite...

the ravens?...solid...but with some serious weaknesses...the receiving corps has been overhauled...flacco`s security blankets are gone(mason.heap)...in their place we have an unproven tight end duo( dixon and pitta) and at wideout lee evans...evans was a great pick-up,but he`s only been around for a few weeks..and he`s been walking around camp in a boot(a precaution)..our 3rd receivers are rookies torrey smith(a total bust in camp) and tandon doss( a solid possesion receiver).....no nfl experience

the offensive line has been rearranged...we brought in bryant mckinnie (dumped by minny ...who hasn`t played a down in preseason because he was so woefully out of shape) to replace michael oher at left tackle because he couldn`t protect flacco`s blind side and gets called for around two false starts a game...mckinnie isn`t quick enough to handle pitt`s linebackers coming off the edge...

i can`t get an answer on center matt birk`s status...he`s coming off knee surgery(i`ve had 54 views on one of the most rabid ravens` fan boards..no answer)...he didn`t play in preseason at all....


we`re starting 2 new corners with no nfl starting experience(jimmy smith/corey williams).....and a new safety(nakamura)....

we`re starting a new tackle terrence cody now that kelly gregg moved on.....

just too damned many questions..we have so many new,inexperienced pieces...

i`m literally forced to take the stoolers and the points...

2)tenn+1..1 unit...jags in disarray...garrard dumped and luke mccown named starter one week before the season?...

wait,what?

3)tampa pick..1 unit.....i like this team...don`t believe detroit has enough of a running game to exploit the bucs weak run defense(even though tampa shored up their defensive line through the draft the last 2 years)...a little revenge for last year...just like this team with their solid young qb, two young stud receivers/kellen winslow and blount...

love detroit coach schwartz...detroit is definitely on the come...just not sure that they can waltz into tampa bay for the second time in a year and win...last time,they were playing with nothing on the line...no pressure....this time,it means something

4)chic +2.5...half unit....tough out at home...taking better defense....atlanta 28th vs run last year......but i don`t trust cutler...thus,half unit

5)wash+2.5...half unit...giants not sharp in preseason..injured on "d"......skins surprisingly sharp in preseason...and grossman looked surprisingly capable...it`s all about the system and i think that shanny`s might be taking hold in d.c......giants better personnel-wise..maybe not as cohesive...



6)..carolins+7(-120)......1/4 unit...coaching change...and upon closer inspection,theres actually some talent on carolina`s roster...

of course,all are just semi-educated guesses...


...
 
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gardenweasel

gardenweasel

el guapo
Forum Member
Jan 10, 2002
40,588
234
63
"the bunker"
off to a shaky 2-3-1 start with my largest play (squeelers) taking the pipe....

keeping it small while we try and get a feel for this craziness...

-i unit plays...
-atlanta +1.5.....tough home court afvantage....they aren`t as good as everyone thought...and neither is philly....michael turner sets up everything here...

-teaser...jets-1.5/squeelers-5.5/cowboys+7.....1 unit...

adding steelers-14(sportsbook)...giving them another chance here...i know about double digit dogs...it`s a situational play for me......i think tomlin burned some ass this week...all the talk about being old....i have difficulty seeing how seattle scores here...they suck on the road.....i`m utterly shocked that tavares jackson is a starting qb in the nfl.......something like 33-10...

nobody...i mean nobody is giving k.c. a shot.....so tempted...but i`m still feeling my way...pass...l
 
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Cie

Cie

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Apr 30, 2003
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New Orleans
gardenweasel said:
off to a shaky 2-3-1 start with my largest play (squeelers) taking the pipe....

keeping it small while we try and get a feel for this craziness...

-i unit plays...
-atlanta +1.5.....tough home court afvantage....they aren`t as good as everyone thought...and neither is philly....michael turner sets up everything here...

-teaser...jets-1.5/squeelers-5.5/cowboys+7.....1 unit...

nobody...i mean nobody is giving k.c. a shot.....so tempted...but i`m still feeling my way...pass...l
Click to expand...

Head to head on ATL. I can easily see Turnrer running well, but their homefield edge is a myth. Only 5 wins at home in 3 years vs winning football teams. Vick mobility will create problems for aging front imo.

GL this week and rest of way, my man:toast:
 
Gags

Gags

Moneybags
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Apr 30, 2005
2,608
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Allentown, Pa
Solid day for you Weasy, spot on with the Steelers. I'm on Atlanta tonight as well. Falcons should ground and pound those Philly LB's. Didn't see much today, did your boys have a letdown?





gardenweasel said:
off to a shaky 2-3-1 start with my largest play (squeelers) taking the pipe....

keeping it small while we try and get a feel for this craziness...

-i unit plays...
-atlanta +1.5.....tough home court afvantage....they aren`t as good as everyone thought...and neither is philly....michael turner sets up everything here...

-teaser...jets-1.5/squeelers-5.5/cowboys+7.....1 unit...

adding steelers-14(sportsbook)...giving them another chance here...i know about double digit dogs...it`s a situational play for me......i think tomlin burned some ass this week...all the talk about being old....i have difficulty seeing how seattle scores here...they suck on the road.....i`m utterly shocked that tavares jackson is a starting qb in the nfl.......something like 33-10...

nobody...i mean nobody is giving k.c. a shot.....so tempted...but i`m still feeling my way...pass...l
Click to expand...
 
gardenweasel

gardenweasel

el guapo
Forum Member
Jan 10, 2002
40,588
234
63
"the bunker"
5-3-1 ytd(might be down a little because of unit assignments...but who cares?)

1)minny +4(-125 sportsbook)....a stat play..detroit allowing 4.7 ypc...minny rushing for 5.8.....control the ball,control the game.....

i don`t think minnys a bad club...theres real talent on this roster.....and they get percy harvin back to help give them balance...

.......................................

2)buffalo+8(sportsbook-120)....too many key injuries for new england...and their defense just plain ain`t very good...their defensive yppa is 8.9(28th)...and their defensive ypr attempt is also 28th...

the bills average over 5 ypc on offense(2nd) and their passing game ain`t no joke either...

looking at it without any pre-conceived bias(pats=good/bills=bad),getting 8 at home is pretty damned generous,imo...
................................................


going against the grain......betting against the mighty pats and the hot lions is about as much fun as being fisted by andre the giant....

but we slog onward...
 
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gardenweasel

gardenweasel

el guapo
Forum Member
Jan 10, 2002
40,588
234
63
"the bunker"
Blitz said:
What do you think of your Ravens today?
Click to expand...

i`m trying not to think of them.....lol....bad,injured secondary...inexperienced receiving corps(lee evans out...3 1st year guys as back-ups).......

still,you have to believe they`ll be focused....

i`m going to throw in a longshot teaser(well,sort of longshot) and 2 crazy moneylines....laying 1 to get almost 2.5 back on the tease...for fun...not to count against the record(because the record is sooo important....:facepalm: :mj07: )


New Orleans Saints* +7
Philadelphia Eagles* +1
New York Jets* +8
Baltimore Ravens* +3?
Atlanta Falcons* +10?
Pittsburgh Steelers* -1?

also small moneylines on buffalo(+270) and minny(+145)....

for the record...the ravens worry me most, teaser-wise......

just for fun....

g.l.
 
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gardenweasel

gardenweasel

el guapo
Forum Member
Jan 10, 2002
40,588
234
63
"the bunker"
7-3-1 ytd....(2-0 last week...5-0 last 2 wks)

1)bungles +3(-120 5 dimes)....surprised this isn`t higher given all the bills` love.......love the set-up....bills on the road after their once in a lifetime upset over new england to face an opponent they`re expected to beat...

if you check the stats the bengal defense is actually better than those the bills have faced thus far this year(6.4 yppa,2.9 ypc...4th and 1st respectively in the nfl)...

buffalo is on a roll,but the new england and k.c. defenses aren`t exactly staunch...and there are a few strong trends favoring the bungles here(but i honestly don`t want to bore everyone with trends...you can always find trends to support almost any play)...

2)rams+3(-120 5 dimes)...skins 2-1?.....are they really that good?....rams coming in off blowout loss to the ravens in which everything went wrong from the jump.....skins off a divisional rival( and a short week) with philly on deck... rams rushing offense (7th in nfl) should do some bidness vs weak skins run "d"(27th in nfl)....again,there are trends,but,we`re not going there...who likes the rams?...nobody...


3)squeelers+4(-110 5dimes)..who likes the squeelers today?(even fewer folks than like the rams)......the squeelers are old...decrepit...did you see them vs the colts last weekend?....ridiculous....no offensive line.....they`re toast ...houston on the upswing...pittsburgh headed for the trash heap of history...

is houston really all that good...maybe...but beating the dolphins and the colts doesn`t prove that to me..getting into a shootout with a saints team with a mediocre defense doesn`t convince me...

btw,thanks for the 4 points bookmakers...much appreciated..squeelers won last 8 out of 10 on the road...

4)jets+5(-110 5 dimes)....another perception special...ravens coming off big blowout of the rams in which every pass flacco threw deep was caught for a td by an unknown rookie wideout (wonder if that`ll work with the jets` secondary?)....jets come in off pummeling by the raiders....

i remember the last time the ravens scored over 30 vs the steelers and then got drubbed by a mediocre titans team....

i still think ryan holds some ill will against the ravens for passing him over for harbaugh...i think he`ll have the jets ready.....lot of ex ravens on this jets team(mason,jim leonhard,bart scott)...expect lots of pressure on flacco...
bounce back time...dogfight till the end...i`ll take the 5 points(ridiculous),thank you very much...

5)arizona+1.5(-110 sportsbook)...cards lost last week as a road fave...matter of fact,they`re coming in off back-to-back road games and go back on the road next week...i love that set-up....particularly after the giants huge road win vs the iggles last week.......

two pretty decent offenses...with mediocre defenses...might look at the total (but i`m not much of a totals player).....

i`m thinking i can get more than one and half ...holding off on pulling the trigger...


kinda bucking the touts and public perception here....could backfire...just remember,if it doesn`t go well, my picks were still great..the teams just happened to play like shit....
 
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gardenweasel

gardenweasel

el guapo
Forum Member
Jan 10, 2002
40,588
234
63
"the bunker"
8-7-1 ytd


hoping that today isn`t the second coming of last weeks"prognosticate like a fat dumbass day" ......last week was a stuttering clusterfuck of a miserable failure....1-4 with a few bad beats...but that`s o.k....the two prior weeks were golden(5-0)....back on the horse...

1)broncitos+4(-117)...chargers 3-1?....well,they have the 32nd toughest strength of schedule so far(miami/minny/k.c.)...all 3 at home and they haven`t exactly looked good...denver`s been in every game(with the exception of the packers in green bay...no shame there).....

i like the set-up...an overrated team on the road vs a very competitive team at home(3 of 4 games decided by 3 pts or less).....they get champ bailey back.... looks like no gates for san diego...

2)stoolers-3(-125)....steelers are a wreck...but they`re home after a loss...roethlisberger playing despite a foot injury(what else is new?)....they took steps to shore up their o` line this week...and mendenhall is getting fewer snaps due to injury(i consider that a good thing...he stinks this year).....betting consensus is fairly even....

when was the last time the stoolers were a 3 pt fave at home?....regardless of the injuries,this is not a great place to visit...

3)panthers +7.....this team is as heathy as they`ve been this week....they`re actually a pretty good 1-3 club....newton clicking.....they only lost to green bay by 7 at home earlier this year....and the loss last week at chicago was very misleading..cutler threw for around 100 yards...the bears special teams won em the game(i.e. hester) and an int return for a td......carolina put up 24 1st downs in chicago,arguably a better d than new orleans....

they`ve been in every game..had some very hard luck in a few.....the saints better not sleep on the panthers here...i`ll take my chances getting a full t.d...

last week was about as much fun as getting fisted by andre the giant.....but i wasn`t alone....everybody has a few rough weeks along the way...

no more....tightening up...g.l everyone...
 
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