Raptors-Grizzlies
The Grizzlies continue to struggle to start this season, and surprisingly it is their defensive efficiency that is really hurting them, as they are in the bottom ten in the league in this area. This should improve over the season, as they have returned the same basic personnel. After their big win against the Warriors, they struggled against a superior Pacers team that plays their own slug-it-out-style of basketball. Tonight, they again get just what the doctor ordered, in a soft Raptors team that is coming off a tough double overtime loss.
Teams coming off losses need good locker rooms and team chemistry to be able to rally and get up for their next game. Good coaching and teamwork is something I fail to see in the Raptor?s organization. The Raptors are coming off a really ugly double overtime game, in which they trailed by big numbers for most of the game. They fought their way back, but teams coming off an overtime loss that were trailing by 8 or more points after the third quarter are 13-20-3 ATS (39.4%) when playing as a road dog over the last ten seasons. The Raptors expended a lot of energy working their way back into the game, and lacking much of a bench, their starters logged a lot of minutes. Their three backcourt players averaged 50 minutes. While we?re on the subject, their backcourt was particularly heinous in this game, shooting 22.8% from the field, while taking 68.4% of all available shots. Don?t expect this to improve much tonight, as they are the fourth to last effective backcourt in the league, maintaining the third to last field goal percentage, and Rudy Gay should push his limits, as he wants to have a good performance against his old team.
Teams coming off a game that had at least two overtimes are 25-44-1 ATS (36.2%) when playing as a road dog since the 2006 season, losing by an average of 10.39 points per game. If they lost the overtime contest, they are just 7-17-1 (29.2%) in the same scenario. But looking deeper at the game, one can see how much effort and energy the Raptors expended, just to eventually lose. They attempted 114 field goals, which is 30 more than the Rockets attempted, and still lost, not surprisingly given that their effective field goal percentage was just 36.8. Teams coming off a road loss as a dog in a game where they attempted 100 or more shots from the field are 13-22-2 ATS (37.1%) when playing in another road game over the last ten seasons. Teams coming off a game where they had 19 or more field goal attempts than their previous opponent, and still lost as a road dog, are 29-48-1 ATS (37.7%) when playing again as a road dog, since the millennium. It is very deflating to go into overtime and have all the chances the Raptors had to put the game away, and still lose. To show the rarity of the situation, since the 1995 season, there have been over 21,000 team losses, but only 42 times has a team had 30 more field goal attempts than their opponent and lost. After these games, teams are 14-24-4 (36.8%) ATS. The Raptors also managed to selfishly rack up only 10 assists. Over the last five seasons, teams playing as a road dog coming off a game where they had ten or less assists are 13-26-1 ATS (33.3%). Since the 2006 season, teams playing as a road dog coming off a game where they had less than 10 assists, and more turnovers than assists are 9-46 SU (-9.27 points per game) and 19-35-1 ATS (35.2%).
When teams get tired, their legs tend to suffer most, and jump-shooting dependent teams face tough games in this spot. The Raptors are 0-11 SU, losing by 16.18 points per game when playing their sixth game in nine days as a road dog over the last two seasons, and teams playing their sixth game in nine days as a dog against the Grizzlies are 2-21 SU (losing by over 11 points per game) and 8-15 ATS (34.8%) since the core of Randolph, Conley, and Gasol have been playing for Memphis.
Tonight will be Rudy Gay?s first trip back to Memphis since being traded. He is shooting a career low 35.6% from the field, and don?t expect that the mad Grizzlies will take it easy on him defensively. The Grizzlies are the number one team in efficiency in the pick and roll offensively this season, while the Raptors are 29th in defending this play. Expect Conley and the bigs to take full advantage of this tonight. The Raptors are 1-4 SU on the road so far this season, averaging just 90.6 points in regulation, while the Grizzlies are 3-1 at home and shooting 50.5% from the field on their own floor. The Raptors are last in the league in assists per game, and fourth to last in field goal percentage. The Grizzlies should win both these statistical categories tonight, and when home favorites win these, they cover the spread 74.8% of the time over the last five seasons, and the Grizzlies themselves are 70-2 SU, winning by over 12 points per game and 56-15-1 ATS (78.9%) as a home favorite when they win these areas.
The Raptors as a dog are 1-8 SU (-10.56 points per game) and 2-7 ATS after Rudy Gay is their high scorer. The Raptors have been covering spreads, but teams that are on a three or more game ATS covering streak are 17-72 SU (-9.34 points per game) and 34-54-1 ATS (38.6%) over the last five seasons when they are coming off a road loss.
When the going gets rough, take the toughest opponent. Tonight, that?s Memphis.
about the Knicks 3-Point % on the year.
