week 12

EXTRAPOLATER

EXTRAPOLATER

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Feb 22, 2001
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Toronto
2025 NFL: 91-145-4 -2060.58 (latest, wk11: 8-18-1 -709)

Four losing weeks in a row, here. I knew week 11 was bad news. Can we skip it next year?

1H bills -3 +101 100/101
bills -5.5 +100 300/300
Bills Josh Allen ov1.5 TD passes +111 100/111
=500(3)

Josh Allen has thrown 2+ TD passes in 7 of his 10 starts. Texans have actually allowed 2 TD passes in 2 of their past 4, to Bo Nix and Mac Jones; seems a decent price with such considerations. Despite the Bills crappy run defense, I think that they are the much better team, at this point in time, and Stroud's absence should have the visitors coming in with the mindset that this game must be theirs.

Can't lose 'em all.
Fade at your own peril.

Good Luck


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yanno

yanno

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Hey, good luck man. You are funny. Also a thinker. And you deserve better than your record shows.

Hope you are right about the Bills, but not too right! Let them win, but not by a couple TDs please. :smilies1
 
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EXTRAPOLATER

EXTRAPOLATER

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Feb 22, 2001
8,170
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Toronto
Appreciate ya, yanno. Not sure what I deserve; such questions are hangin' above me, but are over my head.

I'm still teasing myself with a couple multiples and maybe some player props, but I've got these square bets that I'm trying to fit into a round (and deep) hole.

Bears -2.5 -106 212/200
Bengals +8 -109 109/100
Packers -6.5 +100 200/200
Saints -2.5 +102 100/102
Cowboys +3 -108 108/100
=729(5)

My lawyer tells me not to rationalize, leaving me void of explanation. Hey!...they're all home teams. Thinking I should double-up on that Falcons fade, via New Orleans, and maybe reverse that Cowgirl, but I digress.

Good Luck


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EXTRAPOLATER

EXTRAPOLATER

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Seemed like a good idea at the time.


P2 Seahawks Jaxon Smith-Njigba anytime TD -101 /
/ Chiefs Rashee Rice anytime TD +105 <+308> 35/107.79
P2 Cardinals Trey McBride anytime TD -105 /
/ Cowboys Jake Ferguson anytime TD +270 <+622> 35/217.83
P2 Bears -2.5 -106 / Chiefs -3 -119 <+257> 50/128.82
P2 Packers -6.5 +100 / Chiefs -183 <+209> 100/209.29
P3 Cardinals +123 / Saints -2.5 +103 / Cowboys +3 -112 <+757> 30/227.06
=250(5)

T2/6.5 Lions -6.5 / seahawks -7 -120 120/100
T3/6.5 Lions -6.5 / Packers pk / jaguars@Cardinals un54 +140 75/105
T2/6.5 seahawks -7 / Rams -3 -120 120/100
=315(3)

T3/10 Bears +9 / Lions -3 / Packers +3.5 -130 65/50
T3/10 Bears +9 / seahawks -3.5 / Chiefs +6.5 -130 65/50
T3/10 jets@Ravens un54.5 / Bengals +19.5 / Saints +9 -130 65/50
T3/10 Lions -3 / seahawks -3.5 / Saints +9 -130 65/50
T3/10 Bengals +19.5 / Cardinals +11 / Cowboys +13 -130 65/50
T3/10 Packers +3.5 / jaguars@Cardinals un57.5 / panthers +17 -130 65/50
T3/10 Chiefs +6.5 / Cowboys +13 / panthers +17 -130 65/50
=455(7)

That 10-point teaser nonsense was working great, here, for a while, with a better than 60% win rate, which was some cheesy profit. My assessment of value--and other things--is suffering. Also tried to concoct a mega-parlay to chase my sanity, but this hole is quite deep. Romeo wasn't laid in a day. Hmmm...sounded better in my head than in print.

It ain't fair, it ain't done, it ain't up to me.

Good Luck


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No such thing as overkill. Beyond is beyond.

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