Week 14 Yards Per Play Projections chart

[martymart]

For those unfamiliar with the statistic, net yards per play is simply the difference of yards per play for and yards per play against. Dividing a team?s net yards per play by 0.2, creates a points for rating. Find the difference between two team?s points for values and compare to the current line to determine which team you should bet on.

Dating back to the year 2000, there have been 30 teams to play in a Superbowl, 50% (15) of those teams finished their respective season ranked in the Top 3 of Net YPP. When it comes to determining true value of a team, look no further than this chart.


YTD: 60% ATS

How to Use: Find the Home teams ?points for? and subtract from Aways teams ?points for? (+3 for Home Field) = Winners!

 

[martymart]

WEEK 14 Break Down

WEEK 14 Break Down

 

[martymart]

Offense & Defense Efficiency Ratings

Offense & Defense Efficiency Ratings

If a team were to have 1.00 in either column, that means they would be gaining on average 100% of their opponent?s average allowance per play ? which would mean they are performing exactly to expectations. Anything more than 1.00 is above average, anything less than 1.00 is below average.

Let?s look at league leading Pittsburgh.

On offense the Steelers currently have a PASS O EFF of 1.17 and a RUSH O EFF of 1.17.

This means the Steelers have gained on average 17% more yards per pass and 17% more yards per rush than their opponent have allowed.

By taking an average of those two numbers, you get 1.17 or 117% for overall offensive efficiency.

Simply put, the Steelers offense gains 17% more yards per play than opposing defenses allow.

DEFENSE:

Defense is just the opposite. If a team were to have 1.00 in either column, that means they would be allowing opponents on average to gain exactly what they would be expected to gain ? or performing to expectation. Anything less than 1.00 is above average, anything more than 1.00 is below average.

Let?s look at league leading Denver.

On defense the Broncos currently have a PASS D EFF of 0.83 and a RUSH D EFF of 0.88.

This means that the Broncos have held teams to just 83% of their average yards per pass and 88% of their average yards per rush gained.

By taking an average of those two numbers, you get 0.85 or 85% for overall defensive efficiency.
Simply put, the Broncos defense holds offenses to 85% of their average yards gained per play.

HOPE THIS HELPS!

 

[martymart]

Got to love Tampa advantage in the run ga,e today almost 40%

Got to love Tampa advantage in the run ga,e today almost 40%

2 plays for me Tampa ml and Baltimore +13

 

[MadJack]

Ravens numbers are distorted because Clausen is starting and the other half of the starting team is injured. They would even be distorted with Shaub.

Every Ravens game this year has been decided on the last drive of the game. Today's game will be decided by halftime.

JMO, good luck to you, I have no play on the game at all.

 

[martymart]

Ravens numbers are distorted because Clausen is starting and the other half of the starting team is injured. They would even be distorted with Shaub.

Every Ravens game this year has been decided on the last drive of the game. Today's game will be decided by halftime.

JMO, good luck to you, I have no play on the game at all.

We will see gl

 

[martymart]

5-10 ats on the weeks sort guys new week

5-10 ats on the weeks sort guys new week

For those unfamiliar with the statistic, net yards per play is simply the difference of yards per play for and yards per play against. Dividing a team?s net yards per play by 0.2, creates a points for rating. Find the difference between two team?s points for values and compare to the current line to determine which team you should bet on.

Dating back to the year 2000, there have been 30 teams to play in a Superbowl, 50% (15) of those teams finished their respective season ranked in the Top 3 of Net YPP. When it comes to determining true value of a team, look no further than this chart.


YTD: 60% ATS

How to Use: Find the Home teams ?points for? and subtract from Aways teams ?points for? (+3 for Home Field) = Winners! View attachment 4778

Ruff week 5-10

 

[martymart]

Week 15 Yards Per Play Projections chart

Week 15 Yards Per Play Projections chart

How to Use: Find the Home teams ?points for? and subtract from Aways teams ?points for? (+3 for Home Field) = Winners!

 

[martymart]

Week 15 Matchups

Week 15 Matchups