WEEK 17 INFO

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Colts coach screws bettors out of cover


Week 16 in the NFL was really one big push for us here at Bodog. The favorites and dogs split right down the middle for Sunday?s NFL action: 6-6 with two pushes. The way things have been going for the underdogs lately, that?s pretty newsworthy ? and generally better news for the average players, who tend to lean toward the faves.

Two things I did notice from the group is that Cleveland suddenly has become a bettor?s best friend, covering six weeks in a row and winning outright in the past three. Perhaps Eric Mangini won?t get canned by Mike Holmgren after all.

Meanwhile, the public seems very much on board the Cowboys? bandwagon again now that the December monkey is off their back thanks to consecutive road wins (and covers).

Bettors were still heavily on the Colts this week despite the uncertainty regarding their starters. So when coach Jim Caldwell yanked most of Indy?s front line players in the third quarter, it worked out well for the book and the Jets, who rallied to win.

The public expected Indianapolis? pride to kick in and for it to go for 16-0. We expect little action on the Colts this week with absolutely nothing on the line at Buffalo ? expect Indy to go off as a dog.

Another team that bettors likely will keep away from this week is San Diego, which also has nothing to gain.

Regarding Super Bowl futures, we will keep those active right up to Super Sunday. A late comer in terms of handle in the futures is the Green Bay Packers, who clinched a playoff berth by crushing Seattle for their sixth win in seven games. And despite the fact that Indy has been drawing a lot of action on a weekly basis, the Colts are not seeing a big handle in terms of Super Bowl futures.

The other perceived favorite, New Orleans, has also seen just lukewarm action and it certainly won?t grow in the wake of that home loss to Tampa Bay. I expect the winner of this Sunday?s game between Philadelphia and Dallas for the NFC East title to then get a lot of Super Bowl action.

Of course the big news of the weekend happened in college football with Urban Meyer?s flip-flop about staying as Florida?s head coach. The public already was heavily backing the Gators in the Sugar Bowl against Cincinnati. The Meyer news has had a significant impact on the line that opened at Florida -10?. It?s currently Florida giving 13, with a bulk of the early action coming in on the Gators at this new line as well.

The Sugar Bowl is currently third in terms of handle among the bowls, behind the Rose and BCS National Championship Game. In that one, the public is very much leaning toward Alabama to cover the 4.5 points after seeing what the Tide did to Florida compared to Texas? lackluster showing against Nebraska.

The SEC has reigned supreme in BCS title games with a perfect 5-0 record. The Big 12 is 2-4 in championship games.

 

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Wagering wackiness of Week 17

Wagering wackiness of Week 17

Wagering wackiness of Week 17

So it has come to this in the AFC:

Houston needs a win against New England to have a shot at the playoffs but needs help later on in the day and is hoping that Cincinnati plays all its regulars and goes all out against the Jets and that Pittsburgh will lose at Miami and Denver will somehow stumble at home against Kansas City and Baltimore goes out to the West Coast and loses at Oakland and Jupiter aligns with Mars and ?

Does anyone besides The Amazing Kreskin have any idea what will happen or who to back in Week 17?

Indianapolis?s rope-a-dope against the Jets last weekend allowed the Jets to back into the playoff scrum. New York may get a second consecutive free donut and coffee this weekend if Cincinnati decides to rest key personnel in the Meadowlands. It?s one of several games that, as of Tuesday, were off the board as oddsmakers try to sort out which teams will be going through the motions in Week 17 and which teams will play things straight up.

?We can afford to wait a bit,? says betED.com sportsbook manager Randy Scott, ?because 90 percent of money bet comes goes down in the last 24 hours (before kickoff).?

Handicapper extraordinaire Steve Merril does have some advice for bettors seeking direction for the final week of the regular season:

?Handicapping Week 17 in the NFL is very similar to handicapping the preseason,? says Merril, ?as it?s important to find out the intentions and motivations of the head coaches and how long they plan to play starters, etc. In general, must-win situations are overrated in the NFL and the line often inflated 2 to 3 points in those games, so often I look to take the opposite side.?

Giant headache won?t go away

Obituaries are already being written for this year?s New York Giants, and no one seems to have an answer for the seemingly unending funk.

The Giants limp into Minnesota this Sunday at 8-7 and out of the playoff picture, courtesy of seven losses in their last 10 games. They have been absolutely brutal (2-8) ATS. New York had everything going for it last Sunday against the Panthers ? playoffs at stake, last game at Giants Stadium, an opponent with nothing to play for ? and still crapped the linens.

Vegas bettors backing the Giants gladly laid the nine points and the books made a killing when Carolina dominated almost from the opening kickoff. Since Plaxico Burress was suspended last season New York is 9-11, and in December-January they are 3-6 over the last two seasons.

Is there a light on again in Belichick?s castle?

New England?s lopsided 28-point victory over Jacksonville may have opened some eyes and given reason to take a second look at the Patriots? chances of making a deep playoff run.

But the Pats have yet to show that they can win on the road and any trip to Miami will go through either San Diego or Indianapolis, or both. Plus, New England?s AFC East title was built on the back of victories over teams with mediocre passing attacks and the Pats? combination of a poor pass rush and shaky corner play makes them vulnerable through the air.

On the plus side, Tom Brady appears to be getting healthier and Randy Moss isn?t sulking as much. Pats get eight points in Houston this Sunday and the country will probably get a look at backup QB Brian Hoyer for the first time since the Week 12 blowout loss to New Orleans.

Seahawks are dogs on the road, in more ways than one

Seattle finishes up at home against Tennessee (Seahawks get 4.5), and that?s a good thing for one of the worst road teams of the latter half of the decade.

Seattle?s inability to compete when it leaves the Great Northwest is part-mystery and part-indictment. The Seahawks won only one road game this season (St. Louis, naturally) and finished 1-7 ATS. Toss out the Rams victory and Seattle was outscored by an average score of 35-13 away from Seattle.

Finding a way to get their players to grow spines on the road is the elephant in the room for whoever will be calling the shots on off-season moves.

Packers peaking at the right time

If the season was starting this Sunday, is there anyone who would not pick Green Bay to win the NFC North?

In early November, the Packers appeared to be going nowhere fast, sitting at 4-4 after a stunning 38-28 loss at Tampa Bay. Two embarrassing losses to the Vikings and you-know-who had basically sucked all the suspense out of the division race and the playoffs looked like a long shot.

But starting with a 17-7 victory over Dallas in Week 10, things started to click defensively and the Packers have held opponents to 14 points or less five times in the last seven games. Green Bay has covered the spread five straight times heading into Sunday?s finale at Arizona (Cardinals -3).

 

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Who's in, who's out: NFL playing time

Who's in, who's out: NFL playing time

Who's in, who's out: NFL playing time


New Orleans Saints

Sean Payton and the Saints have announced that Drew Brees and other starters will not play in the game against Carolina on Sunday after the team clinched the No. 1 seed in the NFC.

New Orleans quarterback Mark Brunell will start the game against the Panthers, with Brees serving as the Saints' third quarterback behind Brunell and rookie Chase Daniel.

Safety Darren Sharper and tight end David Thomas did not make the trip to Carolina and will not play this week.

Key starters that were already ruled out for the game are running back Pierre Thomas and wide receiver Lance Moore.

The spread for the contest opened at 9 in favor of the Panthers but has dropped to 7 at most shops.

Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings have lost three of their last four and don?t appear to be in any hurry to sit their starters.

Minnesota?s defense gave up an average of 30.6 points during those three losses and defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier isn?t content with the way his unit is playing right now.

?It?s important for our defense to finish strong,? Frazier said.

Head coach Brad Childress told the media that the option of sitting starters was removed after the 36-30 overtime loss to the Bears last Monday.

?We?re not even considering that,? Childress said. ?[To be able to sit starters] is a luxury.?

Minnesota opened as 9-point favorites but that spread can be found as low as 7.5 at some sportsbooks now.

New England Patriots

The Pats could grab the No. 3 seed on Sunday with a win and a Bengals loss. The offensive mastermind under the hood has always maintained a poker face when prompted to divulge his gameplan and that?s exactly what Bill Belichick did when asked about starters playing.

"What's going to happen now is we're going to go through the game plan, players are going to come in tomorrow and everybody's going to get ready to play," Belichick said. "And that's how we're going to approach it. Whoever plays, plays. Whoever doesn't play, doesn't play. But it's like that every week. Everybody needs to be ready to go all the time."

The Texans are in a must-win situation if they want to get into the playoffs, and need a lot of help from other teams. Houston opened as 7-point favorites and with the uncertainty of Belichick?s plan concerning starters that number has moved little.

Cincinnati Bengals

If it was up to the jovial wideout Chad Ochocinco, the Bengals would play the entire game on Sunday night versus the Jets.

"I asked [Coach Lewis] the same question, ?How much are we playing?? He gave me that little giggle and then he said, ?We're playing the whole game. We're playing to win.? That's what I plan to do. I'm not coming off the field,? he said.

Now that obviously doesn?t mean the starters will play the entire game. You can?t bank on an Ochocinco quote to be 100 percent accurate. But Lewis did confirm that his young team needed to stay in a rhythm heading into the playoffs.

"This football team, I don't believe, can turn it on and off because we're not mature enough," Lewis said. "We started the season with the second-youngest football team in the NFL."

Even quarterback Carson Palmer wants a legitimate shot at knocking a team out of the postseason.

"We have a chance to knock somebody out,? said Palmer. ?That's part of the fun of playing this game. Playing against the best defense in the league and going out and being successful gets you rolling for the next week in the wild-card game."

The Bengals are 9.5-point underdogs to the Jets.

Indianapolis Colts

After the Colts benched their starters midway through the third quarter last week and forfeited the chance for an undefeated season, it is highly unlikely Jim Caldwell will play his primaries more than a quarter on Sunday, if at all.

?That depends on the health (of players),? Caldwell said when asked about playing time. ?There are some guys that just could maybe go out and practice a couple of days (this past week) and then (today) get out and run around a little bit. We?d test them (this morning) and then make a determination. This game it?s less likely that will happen.?

Curtis Painter went 4-11 for 44 yards, an interception and one lost fumble that resulted in a touchdown as Peyton Manning?s replacement last week.

Rookie punter Pat McAfee will be the emergency quarterback in the game and he has never taken a snap under center at any level.

?At this point, that?s what we have, just two quarterbacks (on the active roster),? Caldwell said. ?It depends on the situation (if Manning were to re-enter the game). It could be McAfee.?

Indy opened as 7-point dogs to the Bills but that number has escalated to 9 at some markets.

 

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Where the action is: Sunday?s NFL line report

Where the action is: Sunday?s NFL line report

Where the action is: Sunday?s NFL line report


Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills (-8, 33)

Opening Line: 9, 36

Where the early action is: 84 percent - Colts

*Wise Action: Under 36

Comments: Indianapolis has clinched a playoff spot and home-field throughout the playoffs. Buffalo has been eliminated.

Fact: The Colts set the NFL record for the most consecutive regular-season wins with 23 before losing to the Jets last week.

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (-7, 41.5)

Opening Line: 7, 42.5

Where the early action is: 75 percent - Panthers

*Wise Action: Under 42.5

Comments: New Orleans clinched the No. 1 seed in the NFL and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs and Carolina has been eliminated. Saints quarterback Drew Brees (rest) will serve as the emergency quarterback. Panthers running back DeAngelo Williams (ankle) is listed as doubtful. Panthers receiver Steve Smith (arm) was placed on injured reserve this week.

Fact: The Panthers have never finished worse than 7-9 in their eight seasons under coach John Fox.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns (-1, 36)

Opening Line: Browns -3

Where the early action is: 55 percent - Browns

*Wise Action: Jaguars +3

Comments: Cleveland has been eliminated. Jacksonville has been eliminated

Fact: Browns running back Jerome Harrison was limited in practice Thursday because of a hip injury.

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-3, 47.5)

Opening Line: -3, 48.5

Where the early action is: 69 percent - Cowboys

*Wise Action: Under 48.5

Comments: Philadelphia has clinched a playoff spot and Dallas has clinched a playoff spot. The winner of the game will be the NFC East Division winner; the loser will be a wild card representative. If Philadelphia beats Dallas, the Eagles will be No. 2 seed.

Fact: Eagles quarterback Donovan McNabb has only 10 interceptions in 407 attempts this season. Dallas gunslinger Tony Romo has thrown 24 touchdowns passes with just eight interceptions this year.

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (+3, 44)

Opening Line: -3, 45

Where the early action is: 99 percent - Bears

*Wise Action: Under 45

Comments: Chicago and Detroit both have been eliminated.

Fact: Bears quarterback Jay Cutler had a passer rating of 108.4 on Monday night for the win versus the Vikings.

New England Patriots at Houston Texans (-7, 46)

Opening Line: 7, 46

Where the early action is: 75 percent - Patriots

Comments: New England has clinched a playoff spot. The Patriots might rest starters including Tom Brady, Randy Moss and Wes Welker.

Fact: Houston needs to win because with a Ravens or Jets loss, and Broncos loss, the Texans have the tiebreaker over the Steelers.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Miami Dolphins (+3, 45)

Opening Line: 3, 45.5

Where the early action is: 77 percent - Steelers

*Wise Action: Under 45.5

Comments: Pittsburgh needs a win and a Ravens or Jets loss as they have the tiebreaker on the Broncos. Miami needs to win, Jets or Ravens lose and several teams to lose.

Fact: Miami running back Ricky Williams (shoulder) has been upgraded to probable.

New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (-8, 48)

Opening Line: 9, 47.5

Where the early action is: 75 percent ? Giants

*Wise Action: Giants +9

Comments: The Giants have been eliminated and Minnesota has clinched the division. For a first-round bye they must beat Giants and the Eagles must lose.

Fact: Giants running back Brandon Jacobs (knee) was placed on injured reserve this week.

Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets (-10, 34.5)

Opening Line: 9, 36.5

Where the early action is: 70 percent - Jets

*Wise Action: Under 36.5, Jets -9 and -9.5

Comments: The Bengals have clinched a playoff spot and the North division. The Jets can clinch a playoff spot with a win.

Fact: The Jets have made the playoffs four times this decade and each appearance wasn't earned until the final day of the regular season.

San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams (+8, 40.5)

Opening Line: 7, 40.5

Where the early action is: 90 percent - Niners

*Wise Action: Niners -7

Comments: Both teams have been eliminated from postseason play.

Fact: St. Louis running back Steven Jackson (back) has been downgraded to questionable.

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1.5, 42)

Opening Line: PK, 41.5

*Wise Action: Falcons PK

Comments: Both teams have been eliminated.

Fact: In his second game back from turf toe, Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan had a passer rating of 103.3 against the Bills last week.

Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals (-3.5, 44)

Opening Line: 3, 43.5

Where the early action is: 99 percent ? Cardinals

*Wise Action: Cardinals -3

Comments: Green Bay has clinched a playoff spot. Arizona has clinched the division and at least a wild card home game. Arizona only has an opportunity to clinch the No. 2 seed in the NFC if Minnesota loses. If Minnesota wins, Arizona will likely rest multiple starters.

Fact: In their 31-10 win over the Rams last week, Cardinals quarterback Kurt Warner passed for 196 yards in the second quarter, the second-most of any quarter in his career. Receiver Larry Fitzgerald caught his twelfth touchdown pass, tying a career-high set last year.

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (-11, 38)

Opening Line: 13, 38

Where the early action is: 99 percent - Chiefs

*Wise Action: Chiefs +13, +12.5, +12, +11.5

Comments: Kansas City has been eliminated. Denver needs to win, Ravens loss or Jets loss, and Pittsburgh loss or Houston win could get them into the playoffs.

Fact: Denver wideout Brandon Marshall (hamstring) is expected to miss the game because of a coach?s decision.

Baltimore Ravens at Oakland Raiders (+10.5, 38)

Opening Line: 10, 38

Where the early action is: 80 percent - Ravens

*Wise Action: Ravens -10

Comments: Baltimore needs to win to secure a playoff spot. Oakland has been eliminated.

Fact: The Ravens defense has only allowed three points in the second half of their last three games.

Washington Redskins at San Diego Chargers (-3.5, 39)

Opening Line: 4, 40

Where the early action is: 85 percent - Chargers

*Wise Action: Under 40

Comments: Washington has been eliminated. San Diego has clinched a playoff spot and a first-round bye.

Fact: Chargers quarterback Phillip Rivers has thrown a touchdown pass in 12 consecutive games.

Tennessee Titans at Seattle Seahawks (+6, 45)

Opening Line: 4, 44

Where the early action is: 97 percent - Titans

*Wise Action: Titans -4, Over 44

Comments: Both teams have been eliminated.

Fact: Titans tailback Chris Johnson has 16 plays of 30 yards or more this season.

 

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NFL Week 17 weather report

NFL Week 17 weather report

NFL Week 17 weather report


Week 17 of the NFL schedule is tough enough to cap without the weather having its say. Here?s an eye on the skies for the final Sunday of the regular season.

Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills (-9, 33)

At least Indy?s starters won?t have to play in this winter mess. The forecast for Orchard Park is calling for snow showers, 22-mph winds and game-time temperatures that will feel like it?s -5 inside Ralph Wilson Stadium. Books have already trimmed the total with all the Colts' weapons on the sidelines, setting the number at 33 points.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns (-1, 36)

Ohio is getting similar weather, with game-time temperatures as low as three degrees. Winds are blowing at more than 20 mph out of the West, cutting the field in half. Snow is expected for Cleveland, putting the breaks on the warm-weather Jaguars and their star running back Maurice Jones-Drew. Books have also set this total at a cool 36 points, expecting the weather to slow down the offenses.

Tennessee Titans at Seattle Seahawks (+4, 45)

Staying focused in Qwest Field is hard enough with the die-hard Seahawks fans sitting on top of the play. Add to that some trademark Seattle showers and the Titans could have a tough time gaining ground with running back Chris Johnson and duel-threat QB Vince Young. Oddsmakers opened with the total at 43.5 but it has risen as high as 45 points. Bettors could see another move down before kickoff.

Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets (-9.5, 35)

The Jets are fighting for their playoff lives at home in Week 17, as well as battling the elements. New Jersey is expected to get hit with some wet weather Sunday, with a mix of rain and snow forecast for the Medowlands. Temperatures will be in the low 20s but with a wind of over 20 mph ripping through Giants Stadium, it will feel more like nine degrees. Books have tagged another low total to this game with the Bengals starters taking a game off and the weather making things tricky for the offenses.

 

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NFL Week 17's biggest betting mismatches

NFL Week 17's biggest betting mismatches

NFL Week 17's biggest betting mismatches

Pittsburgh Steelers at Miami Dolphins (+3, 45)

Pittsburgh's pass offense vs. Miami's pass defense

Pittsburgh is seventh in the NFL in passing offense. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has passed for over 4,000 yards for the first time this season. He is also completing a career-best 66.6 percent of his pass attempts heading into the regular season finale.

Miami's secondary has come up short in the last two weeks against Tennessee and Houston. The 23rd-ranked passing defense in the league gave up nearly 300 yards to Matt Schaub in Week 16 after allowing Vince Young to connect on three TD strikes from outside the red zone in a Week 15 defeat.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns (-1, 36)

Maurice Jones-Drew vs. Cleveland's rush defense

The NFL's fifth-leading rusher will try to keep the Jags remote playoff hopes alive Sunday. Jacksonville is 6-1 when Jones-Drew has carried the ball at least 23 times this season. With a forecast of snow and wind on tap, it could be an ideal time to feed Jones-Drew the ball against the Browns.

Cleveland has won three straight but the Browns last two victories have come against Kansas City and Oakland. The league's 28th-ranked rushing defense will have to step up against an elite back.

Tennessee Titans at Seattle Seahawks (+4.5, 45)

Tennessee's rush defense vs. Seattle's rush offense

While the focus of this game will be on Chris Johnson's pursuit of the NFL's single-season rushing record, Tennessee's defense will play a role in whether or not history is made. The Titans are 10th in the league in rushing defense. The unit's ability to keep Seattle's offense from churning up yardage could get Johnson the necessary attempts to break the record.

After being outscored 106-24 over the last three weeks, the Seahawks appeared to have mailed it in. Seattle is 28th in the NFL in rushing and top back Julius Jones is questionable to play due to some injured ribs.

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (-11, 38)

Denver's pass defense vs. Kansas City's pass offense

Denver is second in the NFL in passing defense. The unit is looking to get back on track after failing to come up with some critical stops in narrow defeats to the Raiders and Eagles in the last couple of outings.

The Chiefs are 26th in the league in passing offense. In a 44-13 defeat to the Broncos in Week 13, quarterback Matt Cassel had the worst performance of his young career. He had a QB rating of 14.6 after completing just 10-of-29 passes with a pair of interceptions.

Baltimore Ravens at Oakland Raiders (+10.5, 38)

Baltimore's third-down defense vs. Oakland's third-down offense

The Ravens are ninth in the NFL in third-down conversion percentage defense. In last year's meeting between the two squads, Baltimore allowed only 2-of-13 third-down conversions in a 29-10 victory.

Oakland has been a spoiler at times this season but Baltimore is unlikely to be flat with a playoff bid at stake. The Raiders are 30th in the league in third-down conversion percentage offense.

 

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NFL poolies' cheat sheet: Week 17

NFL poolies' cheat sheet: Week 17

NFL poolies' cheat sheet: Week 17

Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills (-7)

Why Colts cover: They're 4-1-1 ATS in their last six meetings. They're 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. Donald Brown should see plenty of action and should run over Buffalo's NFL-worst run defense.

Why Bills cover: The Colts will rest most of their starters. Curtis Painter was terrible in place of Peyton Manning last week against the Jets.

Total (38): Under is 6-2 in the last eight meetings and 4-0 in the last four meetings in Buffalo.

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (-6.5)

Why Saints cover: They're 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings in Carolina. The road team is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 meetings. Carolina's only offensive threat through the air is Steve Smith and he is out with a broken forearm. DeAngelo Williams is doubtful to play again this week.

Why Panthers cover: They've won six of the last eight meetings. Saints are 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings. New Orleans will likely rest some of their starters. Matt Moore (7 TDs, 2 INTs) is playing for a chance to be the starter next season and has looked good in place of Jake Delhomme.

Total (N/A): Under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings and 6-0 in the last six meetings in Carolina.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns (-1)

Why Jaguars cover: Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Road team is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings. Maurice Jones-Drew gets to face the league's 28th-ranked rush defense. Derek Anderson (3 TDs, 9 INTs) continues to struggle as the starting quarterback for Cleveland.

Why Browns cover: They're 6-0 ATS in their last six games. Jacksonville's defense has been a major disappointment this season. Jerome Harrison has flourished as the team's featured back in the last two weeks. He has rushed for 434 yards and four touchdowns wile auditioning to be next year's go-to guy.

Total (38.5): Under is 4-1 in Browns last five home games and 8-2 in Jaguars last 10 road games.

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (+3)

Why Bears cover: They've won seven of the last nine meetings. Lions are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 home games and 2-6-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Daunte Culpepper, who has been horrible this season, is likely to start at quarterback for Detroit.

Why Lions cover: The underdog is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings of this series. The Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games. Bears cornerback Charles Tillman may miss the game due to a rib injury.

Total (45): Over is 6-2-1 in the last nine meetings of this matchup.

New England Patriots at Houston Texans (-9)

Why Patriots cover: They've won both previous meetings. Houston struggles against some of the better offensive teams and has a history of blowing leads late in games. Pats can still clinch the No. 3 seed in the AFC. Tom Brady is expected to play the whole game.

Why Texans cover: They're 5-2-1 ATS versus a team with a winning record. New England is expected to rest some of its starters. They need a win to have a chance at a playoff spot.

Total (46): Under is 7-1 in Patriots last eight road games and 5-0-1 in their last six games overall.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Miami Dolphins (+3)

Why Steelers cover: They've won four of the past five meetings and need to win to keep playoff hopes alive. Pittsburgh's stingy rush defense could make it hard for the Dolphins to run the ball which is their best offensive strength.

Why Dolphins cover: They're 4-0 ATS versus a team with a winning record. The Steelers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games. Hines Ward is battling hamstrung injuries and may not play. Ben Roethlisberger has been sacked 47 times this year and could have trouble with Miami's pass rush.

Total (45): Under is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings of this series and 3-0-1 in the last four meetings in Miami.

New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (-9)

Why Giants cover: They're 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings in Minnesota. The underdog is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings. The road team is 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings. Minnesota cornerback Antoine Winfield is dealing with a foot injury and might not play. Adrian Peterson hasn't rushed for over 100 yards in six games and the Vikings have struggled because of their lack of offensive balance.

Why Vikings cover: They've won the last three meetings. They're 3-0-1 ATS in their last four home games. Brandon Jacobs is out with a knee injury and Ahmad Bradshaw is questionable. The Giants were humiliated in last week's 41-9 loss to Carolina as 9-point faves and might have packed it in mentally, especially with nothing left to play for.

Total (48): Under is 4-0 in Vikings last four home games and 6-1 in their last seven games overall.

San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams (+7)

Why 49ers cover: They're 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings and 4-1-1 ATS in their last six meetings in St. Louis. They can notch their first non-losing season since 2002 with a win. Alex Smith is trying to prove he is the franchise quarterback they expected when they took him No. 1 overall in the 2005 draft.

Why Rams cover: The underdog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings of this series. Steven Jackson could return from his back injury and wants to finish the season on a high note.

Total (40.5): Under is 6-1 in the last seven meetings and 4-1 in the last five meetings in St. Louis.

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1)

Why Falcons cover: The favorite is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings. They are looking for back-to-back winning seasons for the first time in team history. The Buccaneers defense is vulnerable and Matt Ryan could pick it apart.

Why Buccaneers cover: The Falcons are 0-5 ATS in their last five meetings. Atlanta will be without Tony Gonzalez and Michael Turner. They are coming off back-to-back wins and gaining confidence with nothing to lose.

Total (41.5): Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings of this series.

Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals (-3.5)

Why Packers cover: They've won five of the past six meetings in this series and 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. Coach Mike McCarthy plans on playing his starters in an attempt to win the game.

Why Cardinals cover: They're 4-1 ATS in their last five home games and 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games overall. Coach Ken Whisenhunt said it is a game-time decision whether he will rest his starters or not because the Cardinals can still clinch the NFC's second seed with help. Aaron Rodgers has been sacked more than any other quarterback in the league.

Total (43.5): Under is 5-1 in Cardinals last six games.

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (-13)

Why Chiefs cover: The Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. the AFC and 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 home games. Denver's leading receiver Brandon Marshall will not play. Many players will want to finish strong while trying to land jobs for next season.

Why Broncos cover: They've won five of the last seven meetings. The home team is 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 meetings. The Chiefs are 2-6 ATS in their last eight meetings in Denver. K.C.'s porous run defense will have problems stopping rookie running back Knowshon Moreno. They need a win to keep their playoff hopes alive.

Total (38): Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings of this series.

Baltimore Ravens at Oakland Raiders (+11)

Why Ravens cover: They're 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings. Charlie Frye (49.2 rating) will start at quarterback for Oakland. Oakland's run defense is terrible and is likely to have difficulty containing Ray Rice. They can clinch a playoff birth with a victory.

Why Raiders cover: The home team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings. Oakland has been playing teams tough over recent weeks as many players are vying to earn jobs next season. Joe Flacco has been sacked six times in his last two games as the Ravens offensive line struggles to protect him.

Total (38): Under is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings between these two teams.

Washington Redskins at San Diego Chargers (-4)

Why Redskins cover: They're 4-1 ATS in their last five road games. San Diego has nothing to play for in Week 17 and could rest some players. Jason Campbell is a free agent after this season and will be auditioning for another starting quarterback role in 2010.

Why Chargers cover: They're 6-2 ATS in their last eight games. Washington's defense has been falling apart over recent weeks and even San Diego's reserves could give the Redskins a stiff test.

Total (39): Over is 4-1 in Redskins last five games and 4-1 in Chargers last five games.

Tennessee Titans at Seattle Seahawks (+4)

Why Titans cover: Seahawks are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games. Chris Johnson is looking to set some new NFL rushing records and should have a good chance to do so against a bad Seattle defense. Matt Hasselbeck (2 TDs, 8 INTs) has not played well over the last two weeks and is suffering through the worst season of his career.

Why Seahawks cover: They've won five consecutive meetings in this series. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings. The Titans are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.

Total (44): Under is 4-1 in Seahawks' last five home games.

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-3)

Why Eagles cover: They're 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings and 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Dallas. The underdog is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings. The road team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.

Why Cowboys cover: They're 11-5 ATS in their last 16 versus the NFC. Tony Romo is on fire. He has thrown for 1,548 yards, nine touchdowns and only two interceptions in his last five games. Dallas beat Philly 20-16 in Week 8 to cover as 3-point underdogs. Eagles center Jamaal Jackson is out with a knee injury.

Total (47): Under is 7-1 in Cowboys last eight games.

Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets (-10)

Why Bengals cover: Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games. The Bengals can still clinch the No. 3 seed in the AFC. Chad Ochocinco will be looking for a big game after calling out Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis all week. Larry Johnson will get a chance to showcase himself for a team next season.

Why Jets cover: They've won six of the last seven meetings. They're 4-1 ATS in their last five games. The Bengals are 1-5 ATS in their last six games. Cincinnati is expected to rest some of its starters and the Jets can clinch a playoff berth with a win.

Total (35.5): Under is 4-1 in Bengals last five games and 4-1-1 in Jets last six games.

 

[Lumi]

Royal might also miss Broncos' finale

Royal might also miss Broncos' finale

Royal might also miss Broncos' finale
January 2, 2010


ENGLEWOOD, Colo. (AP) -The Denver Broncos' thin group of wide receivers took another hit Saturday when the team promoted Matt Willis from its practice squad, a sign that Eddie Royal is unlikely to play Sunday.


Coach Josh McDaniels already is benching Pro Bowl receiver Brandon Marshall and tight end Tony Scheffler for disciplinary reasons for the game against Kansas City with a playoff berth at stake.

If, as expected, a neck injury keeps Royal out for the second straight game, the Broncos would be left with Jabar Gaffney, Brandon Stokley, Brandon Lloyd and Willis at receiver. The four have combined for 58 catches and five TDs this season, about half of what Marshall has.

To make room for Willis, the Broncos waived tackle Herb Taylor for the second time this month.

McDaniels announced Friday that he was deactivating Marshall for the Broncos' biggest game of the season, insinuating the Pro Bowler was exaggerating the extent of a hamstring injury.

He said that he would call up Willis to the active roster if he deemed Royal a no-go during Saturday's walkthrough.

``He's the last guy standing in terms of the practice squad and if Eddie couldn't do it, then that would be the move that we'd made to make sure that we had at least four active'' receivers, McDaniels said Friday.

Willis is a second-year pro who spent all season on Denver's practice squad. He appeared in five games for Baltimore in 2007.

The Broncos might also be without tight end Daniel Graham, who is listed as questionable with a knee injury, leaving rookie Richard Quinn as their only tight end. Quinn hasn't played a down yet.

Scheffler, one of several holdover players from the Mike Shanahan era whose production has dipped under McDaniels, found himself on the Broncos' scout team this week, evidently as punishment for complaining about his diminished role.

McDaniels' decision to bench Marshall and Scheffler 48 hours before the most pivotal game of the season didn't sit well in Denver's locker room, where teammates were irked by the timing of the move.

Anyone who chose to speak for the record, however, was diplomatic, choosing not to take sides publicly.

``It's a coach's decision and Coach is doing what's best for this team,'' said Graham, adding he wasn't surprised that McDaniels was taking the same no-nonsense approach of his mentor, Bill Belichick.

``We're professionals, we're all here to work,'' Graham said. ``He expects everyone to come here and work and it's his decision and what he feels is best for the team.''

 

[Lumi]

Saints plan to rest Brees, start Brunell

Saints plan to rest Brees, start Brunell

Saints plan to rest Brees, start Brunell
January 2, 2010


NEW ORLEANS (AP) -Drew Brees will get some rest in the New Orleans Saints' regular-season finale at Carolina, likely keeping his NFL-record completion percentage intact.


Coach Sean Payton has decided to start Mark Brunell in place of the star quarterback for Sunday's game.

If Brees doesn't play, as expected, his completion mark of 70.60 percent will break the record of 70.55 set by Ken Anderson with the Cincinnati Bengals in 1982.

Brees was aware of the record.

``When I was a rookie quarterback in San Diego, I looked up all the records,'' he said on Thursday. ``I just wanted to know, you know? So I knew them all by heart there for a while.''

Still, Brees said earlier this week that he was prepared to play on Sunday and throw as often as Payton deemed necessary, taking the same approach to maintaining his completion percentage that Ted Williams took to hitting .400.

Brees wears No. 9 in honor of Williams, the Boston Red Sox legend who raised his batting average from .400 to .406 by playing on the final day of the 1941 baseball season.

``I'm going to do whatever I'm asked to do and whatever I can to help this team,'' Brees said Thursday.

The Saints (13-2) already own the top seed for the NFC playoffs. With little at stake, they also decided to not play safety Darren Sharper and tight end David Thomas on Sunday.

Sharper has a minor soreness in his left knee. He was listed as questionable on Friday, but was downgraded along with Thomas, who had been listed as doubtful with a calf injury.

Brees has thrown for 4,388 yards and 34 touchdowns this season. He completed 19 straight passes during the Saints' 20-17 overtime loss to Tampa Bay last Sunday. However, four promising drives produced no points in that game because of two third-down completions that came up a yard short of a first down, Marques Colston's fourth-quarter fumble in Bucs territory and Garrett Hartley's missed 37-yard field goal, which could have won the game at the end of regulation.

Before Payton made public his decision to sit Brees, the quarterback said setting the completions percentage record would be ``a big deal, but any passing record like that is a big deal.''

``You're not keeping track of that as the game goes on like, 'Hey, I've thrown two incompletions here in a row so I need to catch up by throwing six straight completions,''' Brees explained. ``But from an efficiency standpoint ... there's something to that number in regards to how it shows the efficiency of your offense or your passing game.''

Brees will be listed as the Saints' third quarterback, behind Brunell and rookie Chase Daniel. The Times-Picayune first reported the move and the coach confirmed it to The Associated Press in an e-mail Saturday.

Daniel was signed from the Saints' practice squad to the active roster and the club waived veteran cornerback Mike McKenzie, according to a transaction posted on the team's Web site.

McKenzie's removal from the active roster raised the prospects of cornerback Jabari Greer returning from his sports hernia for one game before the Saints begin preparations for the playoffs. Greer has missed the last seven games and said he was ready and wanted to play this weekend.

 

[Lumi]

Plenty still at stake as season concludes

Plenty still at stake as season concludes

Plenty still at stake as season concludes
January 2, 2010


How boring is the NFC, with all six playoff participants already decided? Well, the conference is pretty spicy, actually, with the East crown about to be decided in Dallas, the Vikings capable of being seeded second, third or fourth, and the top-ranked Saints suddenly struggling.


The AFC already has all four division winners and has concentrated its frenzy on the wild-card race, which has seven teams still in the scramble. The Ravens and Jets are in control, but if either slips, the Broncos, Steelers, Jaguars, Texans and Dolphins remain possibilities. Denver has 10 scenarios by which it can get a wild card, half of those not even requiring the Broncos to win Sunday against Kansas City.

Most intriguing are the Eagles (11-4) at the Cowboys (10-5) and the Bengals (10-5) at the Jets (8-7).

Dallas won 20-16 at Philadelphia on Nov. 8, seemingly taking charge of the division. But the Cowboys went 4-3 after that, while Philly went 6-1 to take the NFC East lead. Sunday's winner gets the title and perhaps a bye in the first round of the postseason.

``It's a perfect picture right now,'' Cowboys cornerback Mike Jenkins said. ``I think it was set up real great. We're in a good situation to go in and show everybody what we're made of. Doing it (against the Eagles) is even better. We're in a great situation.''

Of course, they were in the same situation a year ago in the wild-card race, went into Philadelphia and got routed 44-6.

An Eagles victory earns them that bye. Dallas needs a win and losses by Minnesota and Arizona to get the week off.

Most people, including Jets coach Rex Ryan, thought the Jets would have the postseason off after a loss to Atlanta two weeks ago. Then everything New York required to remain viable for the playoffs happened last weekend - including the Colts waving an unbeaten season goodbye by sitting nearly every starter in the third quarter of a close game. The Jets rallied to hand Indianapolis its first loss, and with a victory Sunday night over the AFC North champion Bengals, who also might rest their regulars, New York gets in.

``We had a lot of tough games this year, a lot of tough losses, games that we thought we would win and we ended up coming up short,'' running back Thomas Jones said. ``For us to have an opportunity to even get in the playoffs at this point in the season says a lot about our coaching staff, says a lot about Rex and the commitment that they have to us. It says a lot about the character of our team and guys not giving up.''

It also says a lot about having a favorable schedule at the end of the season.

In other games Sunday, it's Baltimore at Oakland, Pittsburgh at Miami, New England at Houston, Indianapolis at Buffalo, New Orleans at Carolina, Jacksonville at Cleveland, the New York Giants at Minnesota, Washington at San Diego, Green Bay at Arizona, Chicago at Detroit, San Francisco at St. Louis, Atlanta at Tampa Bay, and Tennessee at Seattle.

---

Like the Jets, the Ravens began the year 3-0, then fell to 3-3. Unlike the Jets, they've remained in the playoff conversation throughout the schedule. They could have secured a wild-card berth by beating Pittsburgh last Sunday, and now face a potential spoiler in the Raiders.

Of Oakland's five victories, four came against winning teams: Philadelphia, Denver, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati.


How badly will the defending Super Bowl champions be kicking themselves if they win this week, finish 9-7 and get left out of the postseason parade? A five-game slide, including losses to Kansas City and Oakland, will become the identity marker for 2009 - at least for those who have short memories and overlook what happened back in early February.

Miami won the AFC East a year ago by riding the wildcat and protecting the ball. The wildcat pretty much has disappeared and the Dolphins are a minus-7 in turnover differential.


If Pittsburgh is lamenting what might have been, what about Denver, which once was 6-0? The Broncos have stumbled so badly that San Diego surged into control of the AFC West by early December. That stingy Denver defense has crumbled down the stretch.

Kansas City's first season under coach Todd Haley and GM Scott Pioli has been all about building a foundation, so the record is not surprising.


Another team that might rest key players is New England; does Bill Belichick care all that much about being a No. 3 or No. 4 seed? The Patriots must play in the wild-card round regardless, and they aren't likely to fear any potential opponent.

Houston never has been to the playoffs and hasn't had a winning season since entering the NFL in 2002. With the right results, the Texans could sneak in and face the Patriots again next weekend. They've won three in a row.


Peyton Manning always starts, never missing one since he joined the Colts 11 years ago. Whether he is on the tundra in Orchard Park for more than one series is another matter. If Indy was willing to sacrifice the shot at a perfect record last week, why would any key players make more than a cameo appearance in this one?

Buffalo was hoping to close well under interim coach Perry Fewell, but is 2-4 since he replaced Dick Jauron.


The Saints own home-field advantage throughout the NFC and decided on Saturday to start Mark Brunell at quarterback in place of Drew Brees.

How much work the Saints' other starters get depends on whether coach Sean Payton wants to smooth out some rough spots after two straight losses. New Orleans hasn't played lights out on offense or defense since November.

If the Panthers finish at .500 after starting 3-0 and then being 5-8, it should help John Fox keep his coaching job.


On Oct. 11, these teams were a combined 11-0. The Giants plummeted so far that they already have been eliminated from contention, their defense a shell of the unit that helped win a Super Bowl less than two years ago.

The Vikings waited until December to go into their dive, losing three of four and wasting an open road to a playoff bye. Most troubling is a defense that suddenly has sprung leaks, allowing 92 points in the three defeats.


Three straight losses dropped the Jaguars from control of the AFC wild-card dash to needing lots of help. They needed to close the way Cleveland has with three wins in a row, at least raising the possibility Eric Mangini will be retained as coach by new team boss Mike Holmgren.


Jim Zorn's final game as Redskins coach. Norv Turner once coached in Washington, too, and he's headed into the postseason with the AFC West champion, the league's hottest team. San Diego has won 10 straight, but figures to sit its regulars for much of this game.


These teams could meet in the wild-card round next weekend, too. The Cardinals have a shot at a bye, needing a victory and losses by Minnesota and Philadelphia. Arizona showed last winter how dangerous it can be in the playoffs, and this is a better team than the one that lost to Pittsburgh in the final minute of the Super Bowl.

Green Bay is locked into playing in the wild-card round after winning six of its last seven.


Detroit can't look at this year as successful, but at least it's not 0-16. The Bears looked like a contender in their Monday night overtime victory against the Vikings. So where was that all season?


Six straight losing seasons for the Niners could end if they handle the dreadful and banged-up Rams. St. Louis earns the No. 1 overall draft pick if it completes the eighth 1-15 season in league history.


When the Falcons joined the league in 1966, who would have imagined they'd go 43 seasons without consecutive winning records? They can end that ignominious string by beating Tampa Bay, which comes off a stunning upset of the Saints.


The Titans want to finish off their remarkable turnaround from 0-6 with a .500 record and a nice boost for next season. Seattle merely wants to finish another injury-ravaged flop.

 

[Lumi]

Las Vegas Money Moves

Las Vegas Money Moves

Las Vegas Money Moves


Week 17 of the NFL season can be both fun and stressful equally at the same time for Las Vegas bookmakers. With all the jumbled scenarios of what games mean to each team in regards to making the playoffs or not, it takes a real keen eye to follow and handle all situations laid before them. At the same time, the rush of the instantaneous action can be exhilarating -- validating the reasons many behind the counter got into the business.

There is a dilemma facing each Sports Book this week regarding when to put up some of the games that may appear meaningless and what number to use. Wednesday is usually a day when most books send in their parlay card numbers to the presses. This week, many books will be leaving off a few games on the cards just because of the uncertainty of who will play and for how long.

The three teams that have nothing to play for while getting ready for the playoffs are the Colts, Saints, and Chargers. The Chargers line opened up -3.5 over the Redskins on Monday, but the Colts-Bills and Saints-Panthers games were left off the board at most Las Vegas books.

On Wednesday, Station Casinos Sports Books tested the waters with the only lines in town on the later two games with circle game limits and the spreads went soaring.



Stations opened the Bills a home 6-point favorite against the Colts and the line immediately jumped to eight before settling at 7.5. Las Vegas Sports Consultants had suggested a preliminary line of Bills minus-3.5, but Stations opted to go higher as hunch that the public and Sharps may think that line too generous based on what we all saw last week against the Jets.

Peyton Manning will surely start the game to keep his consecutive-start streak going, but the main question is just how long will he play. It?s amazing that the Colts organization feels an obligation to keep Manning?s personal streak alive, yet they selfishly pulled Manning from a lead in the third quarter of a game during an undefeated season in Week 16. Let?s be real, like Manning wouldn?t have enjoyed an undefeated possibility on his resume.

The Saints visit the red-hot Panthers this week where Carolina was initially installed as a 4.5-point favorite at Stations. The line quickly ran up the ladder to seven because of the low limits and has remained there with little takers on the Saints because of the likelihood that Mark Brunell will be quarterbacking most of the game for Drew Brees.

Station Casinos is not known for being an aggressive Book, but yet they remain the only book through Wednesday to have taken action on those two games. The reason for offering the lines stems from them analyzing the type of action they got and whether or not to use the settled lines on their parlay cards.

Even if they were to take several limited wagers of $2,000 on each move up the ladder, the risk pales in comparison to what the risk may have been on the parlay cards had they offered a bad line which would have remained set through Sunday?s games.

A place like Station Casinos does more volume than anyone in the city on their parlay cards and it?s an intricate part of their business. Their players rely on having the ability to wager on every game possible on their cards and Stations makes every attempt possible just to ensure return visits. Not having a couple games on their card isn?t something they want, so throwing a few flares out to test the waters on the games is the strategy here.

By doing so, they have set the standard for the entire Sports Book world to follow suit with a number despite the uncertainty. The market has been set, but there still aren?t many books following -- most likely waiting for more information of the games in regards to playing time for the starters.

A few moves from the Monday openers include the Browns moving from pick to 1.5-point favorites. The Vikings opened as 8.5-point favorites to the Giants and have been bet up to nine in a game Minnesota must have to avoid possibly ending up playing during Wild Card weekend. The 49ers have dropped from 7.5-point favorites to seven at St. Louis and the Falcons have fallen from the opener of three to 2.5 at Tampa Bay.

The Broncos have 10 different ways to make the playoffs, but none of the scenarios have them being able to take care of business by themselves. Denver opened a 13-point home favorite against the Chiefs and has dropped to 12.5 with many having thoughts of Denver?s lackluster loss to Oakland as a 14-point favorite two weeks ago.

College Bowl Moves

On Monday there were three plays made by one of the Sharpest players in Las Vegas. The first one saw Nebraska go from an underdog up to as high a 3-point favorite by kickoff against Arizona in the Holiday Bowl and it got there easy with Nebraska rolling 33-0.

The second game had Oklahoma moving from 8.5-point favorites over Stanford to 10 in the Sun Bowl. The third play had Auburn going from 7-point favorites in Friday?s Outback Bowl against Northwestern back to the original line of nine.

Oregon has been getting some play from the public against Ohio State in the Rose Bowl with lines as high as 4.5 from a line that had been steady with Oregon favored by 3.5 for most of the Bowl season since the lines came out.

Florida remains a 13-point favorite in the Sugar Bowl over Cincinnati. None of the other games seen much action moving more than a half-point either way, but by game day we?ll see plenty of action as many of the Sharps will wait until the last moment to show their cards.

 

[bjfinste]

Thanks for this thread. Lots of info I was looking for.

 

[Lumi]

Total Talk - Week 17

Total Talk - Week 17

Total Talk - Week 17


Week 16 Recap
Week 16 started and ended with two shootouts, but the ?under? still went 9-7. Nine of the 32 teams in action scored 30-plus points or more but nine more also put up 10 or less. Monday Night Football saw the ?over? cash for the second straight week, which helped the ?over? close with a 10-6 season mark. On the year, the ?under? stands at 127-109-3 (54%).

Final Stanza

Handicapping Week 17 is comparable to the preseason. The playoff scenarios often have teams resting, which could be good or bad for total players. Since nobody but the coaches know who?s going to play, it?s often a crapshoot. With that being said, we?re going to look at every game this week with some quick hitters on what we expect to happen in the final installment.

1:00 p.m. EST Games

Indianapolis at Buffalo: The Colts have seen the ?over? go 3-0 in games against AFC foes this year but it?s hard to imagine any points being posted in this one, especially with the Colts resting players. Look for Peyton Manning to get 1 to 2 series then pack it in. The Bills haven?t been able to light up the scoreboard all season, evidenced by their 10-5 ?under? record.

New Orleans at Carolina: Another game where nobody knows what New Orleans head coach Sean Payton will do in this spot. His team has dropped back-to-back games but they earned the No. 1 seed in the NFC despite the setbacks. Will Drew Brees play a quarter, perhaps the first half? Carolina has found a little spark behind QB Matt Moore but he won?t have Steve Smith and possibly the dangerous duo (Williams & Stewart) in the backfield either. Seven of the last nine in this series has gone ?under? the total.



Jacksonville at Cleveland: The Jaguars have given up 70 points in their last two games, while the Browns have posted 64 over the same stretch. Jacksonville hasn?t been able to score (12.9 PPG) on the road this year, which has helped produce a 5-2 ?under? mark. And the ?under? is on a 4-1 run in Cleveland?s last five home games.

Chicago at Detroit: The Bears have put up 48, 27 and 34 points in their last three meetings against the Lions. However, Chicago has been held to 15 or less in six of their seven road games this year. This has been an ?over? series (6-2 L8) lately but so many injuries could hamper the scoreboard from getting lit up, especially with Stanton or Culpepper standing behind center for the Lions.

New England at Houston: The Patriots (11-4) and Texans (10-5) have both been golden for ?under? players this year. New England has already locked in the third or fourth seed in the AFC, while Houston has an outside shot to reach the playoffs. If you?re betting the ?over? here, you?re hoping Tom Brady plays more than a half, which is asking a lot.

Pittsburgh at Miami: The Dolphins have seen the ?over? go 6-1 at home this year and that could easily be 7-0. Miami has gotten away from the ?Wildcat? due to injuries which means more passing. Pittsburgh has been airing it out often this year too, which always helps ?over? tickets. The weather in South Florida could be chilly on Sunday but the opportunities for a high-scoring affair should be aligned.

N.Y. Giants at Minnesota: The G-Men have watched the ?over? go 11-4, which is the highest percentage of all 32 teams. A little surprising too, since New York was known for its defense but that?s not the case this year. New York has been eliminated from the playoffs but the Vikings can be as high as the No. 2 seed in the NFC or as low as the No. 4. They need this game a lot, which could lead to a conservative game plan. These two clubs played in Week 17 last year and Minnesota earned a 20-19 decision at home.

Atlanta at Tampa Bay: The Falcons (5-0 L5) and Buccaneers (6-0 L6) have both been on solid ?under? runs entering this matchup. Five of the last seven in this series have been low-scoring battles, including the first meeting (20-17) this year.

San Francisco at St. Louis: If you bet the ?over? in this game and cash it fairly easily, then shoot me a copy of your ticket and I?ll gladly buy you a drink at a Las Vegas Sportsbook of your choice!

4:15 p.m. EST Games

Green Bay at Arizona: Since there is a great shot of these two teams squaring off next week in the Wild Card round, I would expect a very vanilla game being played in the desert. The total of 44 seems a tad high.

Philadelphia at Dallas: The Eagles need a win to clinch the second seed in the NFC while Dallas can clinch the No. 2 with a win and some help. Both teams will be going full tilt unless the game gets out of hand late. The Cowboys stopped the Birds 20-16 in Philadelphia on Nov. 8 and the closing number of 50 was never threatened, yet the line has only dipped to 48 for this encounter.

Kansas City at Denver: How are the Broncos going to move the chains without WR Brandon Marshall? I don?t know either but the total keeps getting lower and I?d have to agree with the public here. Even though the ?over? is on a 4-1 run in this series, I can?t see Denver coming close to the 44 points they dropped on the Chiefs in their first meeting this season.

Baltimore at Oakland: If the Ravens beat the Raiders, they go dancing to the playoffs. Oakland?s defense has played well at home when it?s coming off a loss. Combine that trend with the fact that they cannot score and it seems like a doable ?under? play. Plus, the Ravens are averaging 14.3 PPG in their last four on the road and all of those games have gone ?under? the number as well.

Washington at San Diego: The Redskins? offense was on a bit of a roll but 12 points in the last two weeks have quickly erased whatever run you may remember. San Diego could probably go ?over? this week?s total (39) by itself but don?t expect the AFC?s second-seed to go full blast in this meaningless game.

Tennessee at Seattle: Tough one to handicap here, for both the side and the total. Seattle has dropped three in a row, giving up 35.3 PPG while doing so. And the Titans have posted 20 points or more in seven of their last nine. Will Seattle step up in its final home game or get pasted again? Jim Mora?s team is only averaging 17.8 PPG in the Great Northwest, which has produced a 5-2 ?under? ledger.

Sunday Night Football

Cincinnati at N.Y. Jets: The Bengals can do no better than the third seed and no worse than the fourth in the AFC, while the Jets can earn a playoff spot with a victory in this game. New York?s defense (15.7 PPG, 263 YPG) is ranked first in the league in total yards. Will Cincinnati play its starters? The Bengals do have a legit defense so that should keep this game competitive for a bit. Low number (35) says it all here, plus gamblers following the SNF game this year should note that the ?under? has gone 11-5 in this spot.

Fearless Predictions

We came to close to another 3-0 sweep last week but the Panthers decided to put up a season-high 41 points on the Giants. We hoped to come close to even but unfortunately the season is definitely ending in the "Red". On the year, the Best Bets are 16-15-1 (-50) and our teasers are now 4-11-1 (-700). The deficit is -740 after 16 fearless efforts. Let?s try to finish up with the broom swinging in our direction. As always, press, pass or fade. Good Luck!

Best Over: Titans-Seahawks 45

Best Under: Colts-Bills 34.5

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over Titans-Seahawks 36
Under Colts-Bills 43.5
Over Steelers-Dolphins 36.5

 

[Lumi]

Trend Setters - Week 17

Trend Setters - Week 17

Trend Setters - Week 17
December 31, 2009

One of the tougher weeks to handicap football is Week 17 with all the uncertainty of starters' playing time. In spite of that challenge, there are still plenty of profitable trends that can help bettors cash going into the postseason.

Giants at Vikings (-9, 47 ?) - 1:00 PM EST

Minnesota has struggled mightily down the stretch, dropping three of its past four. The Vikings return home to host the eliminated Giants, as Minnesota tries to lock up a first-round bye in the NFC playoffs. New York, meanwhile, looks to put an embarrassing performance against Carolina behind them.

Tom Coughlin's team has several strong numbers supporting them, including a 9-2 ATS mark the last 11 games as a road underdog. Also, the Giants are 9-5 ATS under Coughlin after allowing 35 or more points in their last game.

The Vikings have been solid as home favorites this season, compiling a 4-2-1 ATS mark. Minnesota has failed to cover each of the last two weeks, but it actually works in the Vikings' favor. Brad Childress' squad is 5-2 ATS since 2007 off consecutive ATS losses.

Coming off the loss to the Bears on Monday Night doesn't bode well for the Vikings. Minnesota is 0-11 ATS since 2003 as favorites off a SU favorite defeat, as this situation was in play against Chicago, with the Vikes failing to win as nine-point road favorites.

Niners (-7, 40 ?) at Rams - 1:00 PM EST

San Francisco tries to complete an 8-8 season, and their final hurdle is to beat the 1-14 Rams in St. Louis. The Niners have alternated wins and losses each of the last eight games, coming off the 20-6 victory over the Lions.

Sunday's game in St. Louis marks only the third time since 2004 that San Francisco will be listed as a road favorite. The Niners are 0-2 ATS in that role, including a last-second loss as one-point 'chalk' at Seattle in early December.

San Francisco has owned St. Louis over the years, putting together an 8-2 ATS mark the last ten meetings with the Rams. The Niners slammed the Rams, 35-0, in early October at Candlestick Park. Mike Singletary's group has played plenty of low-scoring affairs over the last five weeks, compiling five straight 'unders.'

The Rams can't get out of their own way, as evidenced by just one victory this season. St. Louis has covered several big numbers this season against New Orleans, Houston, and Indianapolis at home, but smaller numbers are a different story. The Rams are 4-10 ATS the last 14 games as a single-digit home underdog.

Falcons (-2 ?, 41 ?) at Bucs - 1:00 PM EST

Both Atlanta and Tampa Bay are each riding two-game winning streaks, looking to finish the season on a solid note. The Bucs went cross-country and thrashed the Seahawks, followed by a huge overtime upset of the Saints last week. The Falcons are getting healthy a bit too late, as Matt Ryan has led Atlanta to victories over the Jets and Bills the last two weeks.




Under Mike Smith, the Falcons are 0-7 ATS and 1-6 SU off back-to-back SU wins. Atlanta has struggled at Raymond James Stadium over the years, possessing a 1-4 SU ledger at Tampa Bay the last five seasons.

The Bucs are only 1-6 ATS at home this season, with five of the losses coming by double-digits. Both these clubs have been riding nice 'under' streaks, with the Falcons going 'under' in five straight games and the Bucs finishing 'under' in six consecutive contests.

Eagles at Cowboys (-3, 47) - 4:15 PM EST

The NFC East title is on the line in Arlington, as the winner claims the division championship. There is still a shot the victorious squad can clinch a first-round bye in the NFC Playoffs, so at least one game on Sunday will have substantial meaning for both teams.

The Cowboys won at Philadelphia back in Week 9, marking the eighth cover in the last ten meetings by the underdog in this series. In spite of the loss, the Eagles are 5-2 ATS the previous seven matchups against the Cowboys, including the 44-6 beatdown of Dallas to end last season. Andy Reid's team is 5-2 ATS this season on the road, while going 10-3 ATS as a road underdog since 2006.

Dallas has struggled in the role of a short favorite, compiling a 2-5 ATS mark when laying 5 ? points or less this season. The Cowboys have played better in December, but can't cover the finale to save themselves. Dallas is 0-6 ATS the last six seasons in Week 17, but has played at home only twice in this stretch.

Packers at Cardinals (-3 ?, 44) - 4:15 PM EST

Green Bay and Arizona may very well be playing a warm-up this week, as there is a very good chance these two clubs can meet in the Wild Card round. The Packers and Cardinals each share a 10-5 record, but Green Bay comes in winners of six of its past seven.

Mike McCarthy's team is 13-7 ATS as a road underdog in his tenure, but owns a 1-1 ATS mark this season in that role. This hot streak by the Packers has helped Green Bay backers, going 6-0-1 ATS, with the push coming in a six-point victory over the Niners.

The Cardinals are coming off a blowout win over the Rams, as the NFC West division is Arizona's for the second straight season. The Cards possess a strong 8-4 ATS mark under Ken Whisenhunt as a home favorite of a touchdown or less.

 

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Patriots an intriguing underdog

Patriots an intriguing underdog

Patriots an intriguing underdog
Apparently, it's business as usual for Tom Brady and the New England Patriots. This is no time to sleep on the job, no time to close shop for the holidays and act as if nothing matters.

The NFL schedules 16 games for each team, and Patriots coach Bill Belichick typically tries to win them all even if he can afford to rest starters. He knows the value of keeping a team sharp going into the postseason.

New England, which has clinched the AFC East title, has incentive to win because it still can earn the No. 3 playoff seed.

Anything is possible, because game plans can change on the fly, but Brady is set to play four quarters when the Patriots visit the Houston Texans on Sunday. "Close game, blowout, if we get behind ... I'm expecting to play the whole game," the quarterback said Thursday.

Of course, Peyton Manning made the same statement last week and then was pulled in the third quarter, and we know how that turned out for the Indianapolis Colts. Manning's sour expression said it all.

The Texans (8-7) must beat New England and get help with losses from two of three teams -- Baltimore, Denver and the New York Jets -- to earn their first playoff trip in franchise history.

I'll take the Patriots as 8-point underdogs simply because Belichick plans to play his starters and it's rare when you can get more than a touchdown with New England.

How rare is it? The Patriots have not been underdogs of eight points or more since 2001, when it happened four times. New England covered three of those games and won two outright.

With the unpredictability of Week 17, the first Sunday in January will feel a lot like the last week in August. Several exhibition-type games are on the schedule, and I'll back the 'dogs in most of them.

In a desperation shot to reach .500, here are nine more plays (Home team in CAPS):

? Colts (+8) over BILLS: With what happened last week, why would Manning take a snap in this one? The Colts should be competitive even with Curtis Painter at quarterback. Buffalo, held to three points last week, scored more than 17 points once in its past eight games.

? Saints (+7) over PANTHERS: On the heels of two losses, New Orleans needs to play well, and quarterback Drew Brees said he plans to "go the distance and do whatever it takes to help us win." Carolina lost wideout Steve Smith to a broken left arm.

? BROWNS (-1) over Jaguars: Jerome Harrison's running has shot some life into Cleveland, which has won three straight and covered six straight. Jacksonville has dropped three in a row, including an uninspired 35-7 loss at New England last week.

? Eagles (+3) over COWBOYS: This game means a lot because the NFC East title is on the line. Dallas won 20-16 at Philadelphia on Nov. 8. In a revenge game, the Eagles and the points look good. Expect an array of big plays from Donovan McNabb and Tony Romo.

? Giants (+9) over VIKINGS: Minnesota needs the win to earn a first-round playoff bye. The Giants might want to salvage some pride after absorbing a savage 41-9 beating from Carolina. Giants coach Tom Coughlin should get a good effort from his team.

? Bengals (+10) over JETS: If the Jets win, they're in the playoffs -- thanks to a gift from the Colts. Don't expect Jets rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez to light up the scoreboard. Sanchez has not functioned well in cold weather. Bengals coach Marvin Lewis said his team will play full speed.

? Falcons (-21/2) over BUCCANEERS: Matt Ryan threw three touchdown passes last week for the Falcons, who are 8-7 and in position to post back-to-back winning records for the first time in the franchise's 44 seasons.

? Chiefs (+121/2) over BRONCOS: Denver is 0-5 against the spread in its past five games as a double-digit home favorite, including a 20-19 loss to Oakland on Dec. 20. The Broncos will miss wideout Brandon Marshall.

? CHARGERS (-4) over Redskins: Philip Rivers never loses in December, and San Diego wants to put this away early and extend its 10-game winning streak. The Chargers are the hottest team in the league, and they have no reason to shut it down now.

Last week: 2-3 against the spread

Season: 35-42-3

 

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NFL: Week 17 Capsules

NFL: Week 17 Capsules

NFL: Week 17 Capsules



ALL GAMES SUNDAY

Indianapolis (14-1) at Buffalo (5-10)
Time: 10 a.m. Line: Bills -8 Total: 35
TV: None
? Weather: Low 20s, 50 percent chance of snow
? Facts: The Colts? strategy is for Peyton Manning to get his 192nd consecutive regular-season start and then get off the field into some woolly mittens. ... Bills RB Fred Jackson is 150 yards from his first 1,000-yard rushing season. ... Buffalo?s rushing yield of 165.1 yards per game is the NFL?s third worst of the decade. The worst was by the Colts in 2006 at 173.0, the year they won the Super Bowl.
? Analysis: Buffalo QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (ankle, questionable) is expected to play after sitting last week. He will be aided by a running game that should outproduce a Colts rush attack that?s not very good even with it?s ?A? team.
? Forecast: Bills 31, Colts 10

New Orleans (13-2) at Carolina (7-8)
Time: 10 a.m. Line: Off Total: Off
TV: None
? Weather: Low 30s, 10 percent chance of precipitation
? Facts: Carolina?s DeAngelo Williams (ankle, doubtful), with 1,117 rushing yards, and Jonathan Stewart (toe, questionable), with 1,008, are the sixth teammates to reach the 1,000-yard plateau but only the second duo on a team that?s not playoff bound. ... Flashback: In 2007, New Orleans had a 24-play drive against Carolina, the longest in the league the past 13 years. ... Carolina almost beat the Saints in Week 9 but blew a 14-0 lead in a 30-20 loss.
? Analysis: Carolina mustered a lot of energy in smashing the Vikings and Giants the past two weeks as a decided underdog. Now, as a favorite, the adrenaline won?t be flowing so freely. The Saints want to come home with a feel-good performance.
? Forecast: Saints 24, Panthers 21

Jacksonville (7-8) at Cleveland (4-11)
Time: 10 a.m. Line: Browns -1 Total: 38
TV: None
? Weather: Low 20s, 70 percent chance of snow
? Facts: If Cleveland?s Eric Mangini, who was fired by the Jets last year, soon is ousted by the Browns? new regime, he would be the first coach canned in consecutive years since Ray Rhodes got the boot from the Eagles and Packers in 1998 and 1999. ... Of the AFC teams in the playoff hunt, the Jags face the toughest road. They?ll not only need a victory but for four of the five 8-7 teams to lose and probably for the Cavaliers to lose against the Bobcats.
? Analysis: Have the Jags quit? Last week, in their 35-7 loss at New England, the Patriots killed more than 12 minutes of the fourth quarter on a 20-play possession that included 17 straight running plays. The bitter weather won?t help.
? Forecast: Browns 24, Jaguars 16

Chicago (6-9) at Detroit (2-13)
Time: 10 a.m. Line: Bears -3 Total: 45
TV: None
? Facts: Detroit?s Calvin Johnson is the only receiver among the top 40 in receptions who hasn?t caught half the balls targeted for him. He?s 61-for-126. ... In their Week 4 meeting, the Bears had an average edge of 28 yards in starting field position (46-18), matching the greatest differential in the league the past two seasons. That contributed to a 48-24 Chicago victory. ... If Detroit tumbles from No. 31 to No. 32 on the defensive charts, it would mark the third consecutive year the Lions would rank last, one off Pittsburgh?s mark from 1933 to 1936.
? Analysis: Chicago was playing with two new safeties on Monday and is fortunate Minnesota waited until the second half to start looking to air it out. After that rousing home finale in prime time, it?s hard to believe the Bears will come through again.
? Forecast: Lions 20, Bears 17

New England (10-5) at Houston (8-7)
Time: 10 a.m. Line: Texans -8 Total: 46
TV: None
? Weather: Mid-50s, 30 percent chance of rain
? Facts: New England coach Bill Belichick said QB Tom Brady (finger/shoulder/ribs, probable) will play but didn?t indicate for how long. The Pats have clinched a division title but can?t earn a bye. In 2005, they were in the same situation and had Doug Flutie drop-kick an extra-point try. ... For the Texans to get into the playoffs, they will have to win and hope two of the following three double-digit favorites don?t: Jets, Broncos, Ravens.
? Analysis: One thing is for sure, the Texans won?t get demoralized by scoreboard-watching because their three key rivals are playing later in the day. As for the Pats, considering they might face a short week before Round 1, why subject Brady to any abuse?
? Forecast: Texans 35, Patriots 20

Pittsburgh (8-7) at Miami (7-8)
Time: 10 a.m. Line: Steelers -3 Total: 45?
TV: CBS (8) RADIO: KWWN-AM (1100)
? Weather: Low 70s, 10 percent chance of rain
? Facts: The last time the teams met in 2007, the Steelers won 3-0 in a quagmire caused by a monsoon. Three years earlier in Miami, playing in the remnants of a hurricane, Pittsburgh slogged to a 13-3 victory in QB Ben Roethlisberger?s first career start. ... If the Texans beat the Patriots in their early game, the Dolphins will be eliminated and the Steelers all but dead. Even if Houston loses, Miami and Pittsburgh need lots of help.
? Analysis: Rumor has it the officiating crew from last week?s Baltimore-Pittsburgh game was seen coming out of the Steelers? locker room with a game ball and a fruit basket. No such luck this week on the road against Miami?s stiff pass rush.
? Forecast: Dolphins 27, Steelers 21

N.Y. Giants (8-7) at Minnesota (11-4)
Time: 10 a.m. Line: Vikings -9 Total: 47?
TV: Fox (5)
? Facts: During the Giants? 5-0 start, their defense yielded a league-low 210.6 yards per game. In their subsequent 3-7 death spiral, that norm has been 365.8. Yet they are still No. 10 overall. ... A Minnesota victory and Philadelphia loss give the Vikings the second NFC seed. ... In the 2008 season finale at Minnesota between these teams, the Giants didn?t have anything to play for, having clinched the No. 1 seed. Minnesota won 20-19 on a late field goal.
? Analysis: Brett Favre has been catching a lot of heat for the Vikings? 1-3 mark in December, but don?t forget leading tackler E.J. Henderson was lost for the season four weeks ago. However, the Vikings will do enough to win, again.
? Forecast: Vikings 23, Giants 20

San Francisco (7-8) at St. Louis (1-14)
Time: 10 a.m. Line: 49ers -7 Total: 40?
TV: None
? Facts: St. Louis is the only team in the league winless at home. But San Francisco is only 1-6 on the road. ... In the 49ers? past two victories, they had a plus-5 turnover margin. ... Rams coach Steve Spagnuolo said he still hasn?t decided on a QB. It?s between Keith Null, the Ryan Leaf protege who has thrown nine interceptions the past three weeks, or Kyle Boller, who steered the Rams to a 35-0 loss at San Francisco in Week 4.
? Analysis: Most alarming for the Rams in their resounding loss to the 49ers was that 1,000-yard rusher Frank Gore didn?t play. But as bad as the Rams offense has been, its defense has improved. Plus, RB Steven Jackson seems likely to play (knee, questionable).
? Forecast: 49ers 19, Rams 17

Atlanta (8-7) at Tampa Bay (3-12)
Time: 10 a.m. Line: Falcons -2 Total: 41?
TV: None
? Weather: High 50s, 10 percent chance of rain
? Facts: It took a last-minute comeback led by Atlanta backup QB Chris Redman five weeks ago for the Falcons to beat Tampa Bay, 20-17. Although QB Matt Ryan (turf toe) has led Atlanta to victories the past two weeks, he?s listed as questionable. ... The Bucs and QB Josh Freeman had not had a TD drive longer than 37 yards during a 17-quarter stretch before their 98-yard march at New Orleans last week en route to a 20-17 OT victory.
? Analysis: Fiery Atlanta coach Mike Smith certainly will have the Falcons motivated to get the franchise?s first back-to-back winning seasons in the franchise?s largely dismal history that dates to 1966.
? Forecast: Falcons 27, Buccaneers 14

Green Bay (10-5) at Arizona (10-5)
Time: 1:15 p.m. Line: Cardinals -3? Total: 44
TV: None
? Weather: High 50s, 10 percent chance of rain
? Facts: NFC West champ Arizona could get the second seed and a bye with a victory and losses by Philadelphia and Minnesota. The Cards likely will know the result of the Vikings game before kickoff. ... Green Bay will be a wild card, and if it loses, the Eagles win and Vikings lose, the Packers would travel to Minnesota next week to face ex-Packers favorite Brett Favre in the playoffs? first round.
? Analysis: Assuming both coaches will pull their QB relatively early, the edge goes to Arizona with Matt Leinart, who has 17 career starts. Green Bay backup Matt Flynn has 14 career passes and barely won the battle to be backup from Brian Brohm.
? Forecast: Cardinals 30, Packers 20

Kansas City (3-12) at Denver (8-7)
Time: 1:15 p.m. Line: Broncos -13 Total: 38
TV: None
? Weather: Low 30s, 10 percent chance of rain
? Facts: Broncos WR Brandon Marshall (hamstring), who has 101 receptions, has been benched by coach Josh McDaniels. ... In 2006, the Broncos needed a season-ending home victory as a 10-point pick against the 49ers to make the playoffs. Denver blew a 10-point lead and lost, 26-23. ... The Broncos, who started 6-0, need have help to make the playoffs. Nothing will be settled prior to kickoff.
? Analysis: Denver should be slamming the panic button with a tire iron. At least one upset of a double-digit favorite with an 8-7 record needs to occur to extend the Broncos? season. Plus, K.C. has a lively rushing attack behind Jamaal Charles, who is only 139 yards from 1,000.
? Forecast: Broncos 24, Chiefs 22

Philadelphia (11-4) at Dallas (10-5)
Time: 1:15 p.m. Line: Cowboys -3 Total: 47
TV: Fox (5)
? Weather: Mid-40s, 10 percent chance of rain
? Facts: Philadelphia WR DeSean Jackson has a league-high 10 catches for 40-plus yards. But in Dallas? 20-16 victory over the Eagles in Week 9, he had two receptions for 29 yards. ... Both teams have qualified for the playoffs, but the winner gets the NFC East title. The Eagles would earn the NFC?s No. 2 seed with a victory. ... Dallas had a 13-yard edge in average starting field position (33-20) in their first meeting. Teams with a 13-yard-plus advantage are 32-5 this season.
? Analysis: QB Tony Romo has had nine TD throws since Thanksgiving in leading Dallas? charge. But the luster of the Cowboys? victory over New Orleans was tarnished when the Bucs beat the Saints last week. The Eagles, likely with more at stake, should extend their winning streak to seven.
? Forecast: Eagles 27, Cowboys 20

Baltimore (8-7) at Oakland (5-10)
Time: 1:15 p.m. Line: Ravens -10? Total: 38
TV: CBS (8)
? Weather: Low 50s, 10 percent chance of rain
? Facts: Baltimore makes the playoffs with a victory over the Raiders. But Tampa Bay had the same scenario last year in the season finale when it was a 12-point choice over visiting Oakland. The Raiders rallied from 10 points back in the fourth quarter to win, 31-24. ... The Raiders are 6-2 against the line as an underdog of 9 points or more. ... The Ravens are 5-0 as a double-digit favorite.
? Analysis: The Ravens have held four enemy QBs below the passer-rating Mendoza line this season (39.6), tied for most in the league. Now they will get to twist Oakland?s likely starter, Charlie Frye, into a balloon animal.
? Forecast: Ravens 24, Raiders 6

Washington (4-11) at San Diego (12-3)
Time: 1:15 p.m. Line: Chargers -4 Total: 39
RADIO: KWWN-AM (1100)
? Weather: Mid-60s, 10 percent chance of rain
? Facts: WR Vincent Jackson (Achilles? tendon, questionable) probably won?t be needed by a Chargers team that has clinched the AFC?s No. 2 seed. QB Philip Rivers probably will do some resting, also, leaving the job to 10-year vet Billy Volek. ... In the Redskins? only other West Coast trip, they beat Oakland 34-13 in Week 14. ... Based on LaDainian Tomlinson?s 3.3-yard average per carry, the Chargers RB will need 82 carries to reach 1,000 yards for the ninth season in a row.
? Analysis: Volek probably won?t be shy about throwing; he had back-to-back 400-yard games for the Titans five years ago. With Tomlinson adamant about getting in a good day?s work, the Chargers might not let up on the gas.
? Forecast: Chargers 34, Redskins 24

Tennessee (7-8) at Seattle (5-10)
Time: 1:15 p.m. Line: Titans -4? Total: 44
TV: None
? Weather: Low 40s, 40 percent chance of rain
? Facts: With both teams out of the playoff hunt, Tennessee RB Chris Johnson?s quest for 2,000-plus yards is at the fore. He needs 128 to get there. But Seattle hasn?t allowed a 100-yard rusher since Week 2. ... Seattle was a 48-10 loser at Green Bay last week. Teams coming off losses of 30-plus points this season are 10-4-1 against the line in their next game. ... Johnson is going to become the first rushing champ from a team that didn?t make the playoffs since 2002.
? Analysis: Seahawks coach Jim Mora said his players have not quit. If so, they?ll go out on a high against a team that?s not concerned solely with winning. It?s not as if Seattle hasn?t been getting scoring chances, it just hasn?t completed the job.
? Forecast: Seahawks 28, Titans 24

Cincinnati (10-5) at N.Y. Jets (8-7)
Time: 5:15 p.m. Line: Jets -10 Total: 35
TV: NBC (3) RADIO: KWWN-AM (1100)
? Weather: Mid-20s, 20 percent chance of snow
? Facts: The Jets are in the playoffs with a victory and out with a loss. The Bengals have clinched a home game in Round 1, but if New England loses earlier Sunday, the No. 3 seed is for the taking. ... New York has lost four of its past five home games at the Meadowlands. The Giants were 3-5 there in 2007 en route to winning the Super Bowl. ... The Bengals and Colts are the lone teams to finish unbeaten in division play. In 2008, only Super Bowl combatants Pittsburgh and Arizona did it.
? Analysis: League history shows highly motivated heavy home favorites don?t always get their way. Even if Bengals backup QB J.T. O?Sullivan plays instead of Carson Palmer, he?ll have hungry-for-carries Larry Johnson plowing ahead.
? Forecast: Bengals 20, Jets 13


Last week: 9-7 vs. spread; 11-5 straight up
Season: 115-117-6 vs. spread; 144-95 straight up

 

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LEAGUE LEADERS

LEAGUE LEADERS

LEAGUE LEADERS

Scoring (nonkickers): 102, A. Peterson, Min (17 TD, all rushing)

Scoring (kickers): 139, Akers, Phil (43 of 45 PAT, 32 of 36 FG)

Rushing yards: 1,872, C. Johnson, Ten (12 TD)

Passing yards: 4,467, Schaub, Hou (27 TD, 14 INT)

Receiving yards: 1,504, A. Johnson, Hou (nine TD)

Receptions: 122, Welker, NE (four TD)

Punt return average: 16.0, D. Jackson, Phil (two TD)

Punting average: 51.1, Lechler, Oak

Kickoff return average: 29.1, C. Smith, TB (no TD)

Interceptions: 9, Byrd, Buf; Samuel, Phil; Sharper, NO

Sacks: 17, Dumervil, Den

Tackles: 147, Willis, SF

 

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BETWEEN THE LINES

BETWEEN THE LINES

BETWEEN THE LINES
THREE REASONS TO LIKE THE PATRIOTS-TEXANS OVER (47)

Both teams say they will be playing their regular players in the finale.

The Texans have gone over two of their last three games, and they average more than 23 points a game.

The Patriots are trying to remain sharp for the playoffs. Randy Moss and Tom Brady seem to be getting into sync. New England is averaging almost 27 points a game.

THREE REASONS TO LIKE THE COWBOYS-EAGLES OVER (48)

The Eagles are a pass-first team and need to win to secure the second seed.

Tony Romo is having a solid finish to the season, and look for the Cowboys to push the offense. Dallas has averaged 25 points a game at home.

The Eagles have gone over the total two of their last three games.

LAST WEEK: 2-0

SEASON: 12-18-2

 

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Falcons motivated to soar

Falcons motivated to soar

Falcons motivated to soar

Atlanta seeking second straight winning season




This is the week of the NFL season that turns oddsmakers and bettors alike into daredevils. Everyone is taking the leap of faith and developing an opinion on what might transpire in today's games.

I've been tapped on the shoulder and asked to try to decipher the problem. Why not a simpler proposition, like coming up with solutions for world peace and health care?

It's a dirty job, but someone has to do it. I feel like a member of the bomb squad.

I'm torn between two games as my best plays. One game matters to both teams, and the other does not in relation to the playoffs but apparently does in a big way to the organization and its fans.

The Atlanta Falcons never have recorded back-to-back winning seasons since their inception in 1966. After finding a way to beat the New York Jets two weeks ago in a low-scoring game, the Falcons made it clear they had a goal in mind despite having been eliminated from the postseason picture.

Atlanta coach Mike Smith made a point of finishing strong, and it seems the players have bought in as well. Veteran tight end Tony Gonzalez, referring to a winning season, said, "I think it's real important that we go out and get that done."

Gonzalez and the Falcons pounded the Buffalo Bills into submission 31-3 last week.

Atlanta shoots for a 9-7 finish today at Tampa Bay. Las Vegas Sports Consultants sent out this line Falcons minus-3, but it opened Buccaneers minus-1 offshore. The Falcons are 21/2-point favorites.

Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan is returning to form, and this will be his third week back from an injury. The Buccaneers are flying high after victories over Seattle and New Orleans, but they are bad.

Consecutive winning seasons won't get the Falcons into the playoffs, but it could make for a profitable conclusion to the regular season for those who are willing to buy into Atlanta's motivation.

My other featured play is over the total of 46 in the New England-Houston game.

The Texans, who are 7-point favorites, remain breathing, but the monitor is beeping loudly. The Patriots can secure the No. 3 seed in the AFC, which means something.

We've heard the travails of the defense in New England all season long, highlighted by coach Bill Belichick's decision to go for a game-clinching fourth-down conversion at Indianapolis. The Patriots also have been more than willing to grind it out in an attempt to shorten games, but that dog won't hunt.

New England must outscore teams and not take the ball out of their best player's hands. Last week against Jacksonville, Tom Brady was 23-for-26 passing for 267 yards and four touchdowns. It could be an entertaining aerial show in Houston, with Matt Schaub matching Brady pass for pass.

My analysis of the rest of today's schedule:

? Indianapolis at Buffalo (-8): The Colts have been taking heat for yanking their starters out of a winnable game last week, with an unbeaten season hanging in the balance. Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark should not have even boarded the team plane for this trip.

Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch should run effectively against the Colts' backups, and the only saving grace for the Bills' season has been the play of their defense. Indianapolis will be hard-pressed to score with the collection of rookies and third-string players that will see the light of day. I'm looking at Buffalo and under 34.

? New Orleans at Carolina (-7): The Panthers have played with passion recently on defense, running back Jonathan Stewart has been a workhorse, and members of the coaching staff found out this past week they still have jobs. Quarterback Matt Moore has been the anti-Jake Delhomme and has not treated the football like a hand grenade. The Saints will rest Drew Brees, look forward to the playoffs and get beat here decisively.

? Jacksonville at Cleveland (-1): Break up the Browns. They now have a running attack and are riding the wave of a three-game winning streak. The Jaguars at one point controlled their postseason destiny and instead secured tee times for the offseason. Jacksonville has ruled out three starters -- wideout Torry Holt, tight end Marcedes Lewis and cornerback Rashean Mathis. Take the Browns.

? Philadelphia at Dallas (-3): This is monster game with a division title, home-field advantage and, for the Eagles, a first-round bye on the line. With all that's at stake, this still is not a playoff game. Last year in Dallas, these teams were involved in one of the wildest shootouts you'll ever see, with the Cowboys winning, 41-37. I look for more of the same as this game flies over the total of 47.

? Chicago (-3) at Detroit: The Bears looked good against the Vikings on Monday and should be tough again in this spot. The Lions offense has been woeful since rookie Matthew Stafford was put on the shelf.

? Pittsburgh (-3) at Miami: The Dolphins' playoff run probably will come up short, but they always play hard. The Steelers have been doing it with smoke and mirrors the past few weeks. I can see the Dolphins showing up and winning outright.

? New York Giants at Minnesota (-9): The Giants publicly have apologized to their fans for a disappointing season. The Vikings were solid in the second half against the Bears but came up short in overtime. It has been a bumpy road for Minnesota recently, and I'm not sure everyone there is on the same page. The Giants put up a fight and cover.

? Cincinnati at New York Jets (-10): These teams could meet again in the first round of the playoffs. The Bengals might find that matchup enticing. Cincinnati will know by kickoff if it can improve its position. I'd look for the Bengals to be as vanilla as a preseason game.

? San Francisco (-71/2) at St. Louis: Are the Rams dumb enough to win this game and possibly blow the first pick in the draft? I watched the Holiday Bowl on Wednesday, and the Rams have to be salivating at the chance of landing Nebraska stud defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh. I hope someone in the St. Louis football department was watching. Take a pass here.

? Green Bay at Arizona (-31/2): I think the Packers will be a live team when postseason play commences. But I couldn't go near this game with a telephone pole, as it is a possible rematch in the first round of the playoffs and the Packers shouldn't show much. It's ironic that the wild-card team might be the one resting players in this spot. The Cardinals have an outside shot at securing the NFC's No. 2 seed if the Eagles and Vikings lose. On that basis, the slightest of leans goes to Arizona.

? Kansas City at Denver (-11): The Broncos need to win and have Halley's comet fly over Colorado to get in the playoffs. This might be a disheartened bunch, and now wideout Brandon Marshall and tight end Tony Scheffler have been benched. The Chiefs are no great shakes, but it is a division game, and the spread is too lofty for me to side with the Broncos.

? Baltimore (-101/2) at Oakland: I've heard talk of the Raiders being a live 'dog in this spot. I know the Ravens are traveling cross-country, but they have plenty on the line and are another team that could be a tough out in the playoffs. No more clowning around from Baltimore. The Black Hole reportedly will be only half-filled for the game. The Ravens have this one put away by halftime.

? Washington at San Diego (-31/2): The Chargers have nothing to play for, but the problem is the San Diego cheerleaders could suit up in the secondary and keep the Redskins from scoring. Chargers coach Norv Turner said quarterback Philip Rivers will start and give way to backup Billy Volek at some point. Stay away.

? Tennessee (-51/2) at Seattle: This is another dicey proposition. The Titans, led by Vince Young and running back Chris Johnson, have expended a lot of energy in bouncing back from their 0-6 start. The Seahawks should be fresh because they haven't shown up the past few weeks. It would be the Titans or nothing for me, and nothing seems the prudent way to go.

 

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DUNKELINDEX WEEK 17

DUNKELINDEX WEEK 17

Today's NFL Picks
Philadelphia at Dallas
The Eagles look to build on their 4-0 ATS record in their last 4 games against teams with a winning home record. Philadelphia is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the Eagles favored by 3. Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+3). Here are all of this week's picks.

SUNDAY, JANUARY 3
Time Posted: 9:00 a.m. EST (1/1)
Game 301-302: Indianapolis at Buffalo
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 134.750; Buffalo 131.424
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 3 1/2; 37
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 9; 35
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (+9); Over
Game 303-304: New Orleans at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 134.080; Carolina 143.175
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 9; 51
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 305-306: Jacksonville at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 126.394; Cleveland 131.633
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 5; 34
Vegas Line: Cleveland by 1; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-1); Under
Game 307-308: Philadelphia at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 139.168; Dallas 135.973
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 3; 50
Vegas Line: Dallas by 3; 47
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+3); Over
Game 309-310: Chicago at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 124.060; Detroit 119.533
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 4 1/2; 39
Vegas Line: Chicago by 3; 45
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-3); Under
Game 311-312: New England at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: New England 137.658; Houston 137.881
Dunkel Line: Even; 49
Vegas Line: Houston by 9; 46
Dunkel Pick: New England (+9); Over
Game 313-314: Pittsburgh at Miami
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 131.599; Miami 134.289
Dunkel Line: Miami by 2 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 3; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+3); Under
Game 315-316: NY Giants at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 130.992; Minnesota 143.093
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 12; 47
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 9; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-9); Under
Game 317-318: Cincinnati at NY Jets
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 129.580; NY Jets 141.784
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 12; 38
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 10; 35
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (-10); Over
Game 319-320: San Francisco at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 131.642; St. Louis 122.205
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 9 1/2; 35
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 7; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-7); Under
Game 321-322: Atlanta at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 129.738; Tampa Bay 133.916
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 4; 38
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 2 1/2; 42
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+2 1/2); Under
Game 323-324: Green Bay at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 137.585; Arizona 135.891
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 1 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: Arizona by 3 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (+3 1/2); Over
Game 325-326: Kansas City at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 120.869; Denver 131.791
Dunkel Line: Denver by 11; 37
Vegas Line: Denver by 13; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+13); Under
Game 327-328: Baltimore at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 138.673; Oakland 125.806
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 13; 36
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 10 1/2; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-10 1/2); Under
Game 329-330: Washington at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 134.443; San Diego 140.737
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 6 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: San Diego 3 1/2; 39
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-3 1/2); Over
Game 331-332: Tennessee at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 132.665; Seattle 126.581
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 6; 40
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 4; 44
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-4); Under