Week 2 Plays.......

[Scott4USC]

Adding 1 unit Notre Dame +7.5 -120 over Michigan (badlands)

Notre Dame :thumb:

2 reasons I like ND. The 7pts and the weak secondary of Michigan. Weiss has to have a gameplan to take advantage of this. Who knows, maybe after this year we all will agree Weiss is the real deal and maybe the best OC in the country. If that ends up being the case, these 7pts are a gift. Right now I think Weiss is the real deal and I am confident he will come up with schemes to take advantage of the Michigan defense. I am confident in ND putting up pts because Weiss is a top notch OC and ND has 10 returning starters on offense.

On the flip side, ND is weak in the secondary as well. However, I have very little confidence in Carr developing a gameplan to take advantage of this. Carr is your classic coach who plays conservative way too often and plays not to lose. Even if Michigan is the more dominant team, there is still outside chance Carr will prevent his team from blowing out ND. (what I mean is putting his team in best situation to blow out the opponent) I have seen Michigan too many times be the superior team and allow an inferior opponent to hang with them. I am not saying ND is an inferior opponent (I hope they are not), but even if they are, ND still can easily cover the spread because Michigan will allow them too.

As a result of ND beating Pitt @Pitt soundly, Weiss has his team pumped and full of confidence. Confidence is so important in CFB. I expect ND to walk into the Big House with a swagger. Something they lacked with TY.

With this play, I continue with my trend of the week. ND impressed me last week, Michigan not so much. Pitt IMO is a better team than NIU.

Michigan beat NIU by 16pts despite NIU committing 5 turnovers.
NIU rushed and passed for 200 yards against Michigan defense.

I think ND without committing 5 TO?s can stay within 7pts of Michigan. Should be a good game. If it is, I don't think ND loses by more than a TD.

This just might be my TREND GOY!

*The underdog in this series is 15-3 ATS since 1980
*The underdog in this series is 8-1 ATS last 9 meetings
*ND is 7-1 ATS as dogs 7pts or less
*Michigan is 6-17 ATS when playing against a good team (Win PCT. 60%-75%) since 1992

That is some good stuff! :yup

Go Irish!

 

[Scott4USC]

*Adding 2 units Marshall +10 over Kansas St. (free 1/2pt fri @betmill)

*Adding another 2 units Georgia Tech -11.5 -105 over North Carolina (pinny) This officially makes G-Tech a 5 unit play. Instead of having G-Tech -12 +100 I took them -11.5 -105. Better than -11.5 -110 @betmill where I originally was going to place my wager. -12 and -11.5 prob. makes no difference. But I be kicking myself if G-Tech did win by 12.

 

[Scott4USC]

Marshall :thumb:

This might be the only game I wager this weekend that I have "some" doubts on. Although I had doubts with UCLA last week and they covered. But I have to play it for 2 units. You'll see why. Purely on principle and value. Marshall plays BCS teams tough! No matter what the spread! I'll show you why.

The #1 reason for me putting 2 units on Marshall is the inexperienced OL of KSU. They prob. have the most inexperienced OL in the country. 4 redshirt freshman along with 2 JUCO Transfers. JUCO transfers often need time to adjust to D1 and are no slam dunk to step in and produce right away, no matter how highly recruited they were from JC ranks. I cannot pass up the unbelievable value of taking a home team +10pts against an inexperienced OL.

This is where it gets ugly for Marshall. Only 6 returning starters and they lost their entire DL. :scared But remember they are not going against a tough traditional experienced OL of KSU. KSU is not the same KSU they were 2+ years ago. Major dropoff in program.

Marshalls strength on defense is their secondary. Very talented and maybe the best in conf. USA. I am hoping Marshall stacks the LOS and stuffs the KSU rushing game and brings out all their blitz packages. They can do this because they have a strong secondary and it is a home game. It is too much to ask for the KSU OL to pick up blitz packages. I am confident Marshall was looking ahead to KSU LW and they do have a BYE week next. So they will throw the book at KSU for chance at major upset. On flip side, KSU will likely play conservative (especially if they get up early) and not expose themselves to other Big 12 teams. They just want to get out of there with a win. KSU goal is not to win BCS title, but to win Big 12 title. Big 12 obviously is not a tough conf. this year. But they are prob. too young of a team. Def. rebuilding year for KSU.

KSU offense last week was very sloppy. 4 turnovers against FL INT. 3 fumbles and 1 INT. NOT GOOD! I would not be surprised if they turn the ball over again on the road against Marshall. In fact, I EXPECT IT!

KSU starting QB is Allen Webb who only played part time last year. He might have some difficulty playing in his first road game this season. Same with the KSU WR's. They dropped a ton of balls against FL INT. and it was a home game for KSU. Without question it is tougher to catch a football on the road vs @ home. Always tougher to play on road vs @home.

I think the Marshall offense can move the ball against the KSU defense. Marshall is very talented and balanced on offense. Something that I was happy to find out was KSU failed to get pressure on the FL INT. QB. I think they had ZERO sacks. On flip side, Marshall OL gave up ZERO sacks last week. You cannot give the Marshall QB time to throw the ball. Marshall has huge height advantage at the WR position. KSU DB's are small. The best player for Marshall is their RB so hopefully Marshall can run the ball effectively. Unfortunately KSU does have solid LB's. But I think KSU defense struggles against a sophisticated passing attack.

MARSHALL GETS THE JOB DONE AGAINST BCS OPPONENTS AND THEY ARE OFTEN CAUGHT LOOKING AHEAD!

Last year Marshall opened season as -14.5 favs over TROY ST. and lost by 2 pts. Next week they were +17 underdogs @Ohio St. and lost 24-21! Week after that they were +17 underdogs again to Georgia @UGA, and lost 13-3!

2 years ago Marshall opened season against Hofstra and won 45-21. Next week played @TN as 21pt underdogs and lost 34-24. Next game Marshall played Toledo as -5.5 favs and lost 24-17. Week after that they played @Kansas St. and were +24.5 underdogs. Marshall won 27-20.

I'll gladly take Marshall +10 @home over KSU! Especially since Marshall is 4-1 ATS as double digit dogs!

:clap: :clap: :clap:

Last but not least, Marshall has strong history of playing well at home. I think they only lost 10 home games since 1991. (something like that) I think they have won 15 of their last 17 home games. I just need them to lose by 9pts or less @home this Sat.

BTW, I am not too concerned about the Pruett leaving so late etc. In fact, it might make the players play harder and focus more with the new HC. New HC from Ohio St. is supposed to be solid. Taught by Tressel! All he has to do is hang with KSU, not beat them!

An added bonus...........

*Last year KSU was 1-3 ATS on road
*Last year KSU was 1-6 ATS as favorites (5-13 ATS last 2 years as favs)

I certainly am not betting on KSU as 10pt favorites on the road! PROVE TO ME FIRST KSU YOU ARE THE REAL DEAL AND CAN WIN BY DOUBLE DIGITS ON THE ROAD!

Good luck!

 

[bamachuck23]

Great write-ups Scott. I'm with you on UAB and MTSU. Good luck and keep up the good work!

--C

 

[cornfed]

GL on Iowa bud!!! I think -7 is a great bet. LY, Tate was dehydrated the whole game being the second start of his career... The O-Line lacked experience and saw a ton of blitz packages. The O-Line should be ready and Tate should have a Heisman-like performance. Ball St sure didn't show us Hawk fans much but I can definitely see Iowa is better this year than last. Go Hawks!!!

Thanks for your other write-ups.

 

[Scott4USC]

Thur. & Fri. Results
1-2
-2.2 units ($500 unit)
-$1,100

I seem to hit bad streak on weeknight games. Houston (loss), Tulsa (loss), FAU (loss), and Nevada (loss). That would be 8 units in losses if I didn't buy back 2 of them at half. Nevada turned out to be a horrible pick. Not the outcome I expected. But on flip side it gave me confidence in G-Tech. UNC like Nevada will be playing their 1st game of year against an opponent who already has played. Unfortunately for UNC, they play on the road with an inexperienced QB going against a solid D.

I am now convinced tom. will be a monster weekend. I am going to shell out some units. I will sweep my 2 big plays (UAB and G-Tech) and win this 2-team monster ML parlay. I love this 2 team parlay and I just pounded it at Pinnacle. They only allow $700 max so I had to put it in 8 freaking times.

2-team ML Parlay
11.2 units to win 4.31 units
Auburn ML -640 over Miss. St.
G-Tech ML -505 over UNC

I could lose it and be down $hit load of units but I just can't see Auburn losing at home to Miss St. who is a conf. opponent. Just can't see it. If it happens, I will be shocked! :scared

Great news is I get both teams @home and Miss. St. is clearly an inferior opponent. Both AU and Miss St. have game under their belts but Miss. St. beat a 1aa school. WUPTEE FAWKING DU! AU should win by double digits.

The news gets even better. The G-Tech game starts after the AU game. Even though I have 5 units on G-Tech -11.5 and -12 over UNC, I am more confident in AU winning SU than G-Tech winning SU. So if by STUPID chance G-Tech looks bad against UNC, there is strong prob. I can take UNC ML over G-Tech in 2h wager. Or even +pts for middle. Unless UNC is beating G-Tech soundly at half. Then I am screwed and I deserve to lose! I doubt that happening with the game being played @Georgia Tech and this being UNC's 1st game of year in addition to starting an inexperienced QB on the road.

Sometimes you gotta take big risks and this might be a stupid bet in principal but I like it! I usually win most of these ML parlays! Last week I didn't see any I liked. I like this one!

GO WAR EAGLE!
GO YELLOW JACKETS!

 

[bryanz]

Do you still like ND ?

 

[Scott4USC]

Do you still like ND ?

YES and I am keeping my 1unit play on them. Remember, ND beat PITT @PITT when Pitt was full of confidence and crowd crazy cheering for them. Pitt tonight looked bad so ND win was not as impressive as we thought but do not take anything away from ND. ND beat Pitt like USC would beat Pitt. Not easy to play on road. Especially game 1 of year!

Michigan on the other hand played @Michigan against NIU and didn't look real imrpessive. Especially on D. Especially with all the gifts (TO's)NIU gave them.

This is a rivalry game and look at the solid trends I posted that support ND. Those trends have merit. 7pts gives you a lot of "value" with ND. I usually wager 1-2 units on a pick with a lot of value. I am not confident enough with ND to take them over 2units. Take the pts! I am. Remember what I said. At the end of the year, if Weis is the real deal (meaning like a PETE CARROLL type coach) these 7pts were a gift. Carroll has only lost by DD 1 time in his career at USC. (11 or 13pts) I think Weiss is the real deal and he has a poor Michigan defense to scheme his plays against. But now I have ND and AU to watch at the same time. More interested in ND but more $$$ on AU.

My advice is to bet it but not make it a big play. Should be a good game, at least that is what everyone is hoping for. If it is, 7pts should be enough for the cover. Since 7pts is so many, you might have a decent chance at buying your bet back or middle it at half if you think ND is playing like $hit yet the score is close. That is what I did last night with FAU. Good luck!

 

[JCDunkDogs]

gl Scott, you do a good job of passing out winners...loved your SC picks the last two years...we took it all to the bacon bank, buddy...but...

Don't agree with your UCLA analysis...(Big surprise, huh). See my post for explanation.

gl on the rest of your picks!

 

[Axle]

Scott, I am kind of new at this game and need the help...in addition, I am fairly new to this board so I really appreciate it. Good job bud. Thanks.

 

[Scott4USC]

Adding 3 units CAL/Washington over 44.5 (pinny)


Axle

I hope you have profitable year and my advice is to read my analysis and bet the picks you agree with. Good luck!

Thanks JCDunkDogs. I'll reply in your thread. I have no problem with you disagreeing with RICE play.

 

[Scott4USC]

Once again I am buying my bet back. Marshall isn't playing to pull the upset. They are barely hanging on. Missed opportunity after missed opportunity. Very frustrating 2 weeks for me to start the season. However, I completely underestimated the speed of KSU. Marshall does not match up at all to the speed of KSU. Despite that, Marshall should be tied with KSU. :cursin:

KSU ML -270 2h (pinny) for 2 units. I wonder if the starting QB for UM even plays in 2h. I just see KSU offense wearing down Marshall. If Marshall covers and I lose my KSU ML bet, I am down down around -170. Worth it IMO. This game isn't going the way I expected it too. Marshall not getting the breaks and not taking advantage of opportunities. 2 times get the ball inside KSU 10 yard line and 1 (kick FG) and 2 (fumble). Then on kickoff return they fumble after huge return.

Speed kills and KSU has it and Marshall doesn't. On top of it, it took Marshall HC over 1.5 quarters to finally stack the box. I thought he would do it from the start. Make KSU beat you through the air. Marshall at has the secondary to take that risk.

CRAP! I missed out. ML is now -250. :cursin: Now I will be even more pissed if KSU wins by 7pts or less.

Lets hope for a KSU 8,9, or 10pt win!!!!!

 

[Scott4USC]

I think i was -.05 units today after looking at my sportsbooks won/loss results.

WHAT A $hitty day and I made it worse. Lost BIG TIME getting cute with KSU 2h. Marshall covered and I would been +2 units. However, I was 1st goal for KSU away from KSU scoring a TD ang winning both bets. Would hav ebeen +3.9 unit profit! I just don't get lucky with middles. :cursin: Masrhall played poorly in 1h and played excellent in 2h with backup QB. KSU played solid in 1h and did not play solid in 2h. Oh well.

This biggest disappointment was Georia Tech. Watched the entire game in disgust. I cannot believe i lost that wager. G-Tech took a 14-0 lead and i had them -11.5 and -12. Listen to how i got royally fawked and UNC lucked out.

UNC had 3rd and 7 and on own 40 some yard line and threw INC pass. Guess what, refs said they blew play dead and called false start. Now 3rd and 12 and UNC gets 1st down. Later on that drive, I think G-Tech was hit was a bogus penalty and UNC ended up scoring a TD. Ok that stuff happens but UNC lucked out.

NOW G-Tech still has 14-7 lead and UNC has something like 3rd and 15 on UNC 13 yard line. They throw a pass and G-Tech DB misses easy tackle and UNC gets 87 yard TD play. ONE FAWKING MISSED TACKLE on a 3rd and 15 on own 13 yard line. That fawking sucked.

Ok now we have 14-14 at half. In 2h, G-tech drives ball down to UNC 5 yard line and can't punch it in. FG. UNC ges ball again down inside 10 yard line, 1st and goal, gets another FG. WTF! PUNCH IT IN! Later on G-Tech finally puts ball in end zone and G-Tech is up by 13pts and I am covering. Well with something like 4min. left in 4th UNC gets a TD. I lose my cover.

I had this game perfectly handicapped and should easily have won 5 units. Instead I lost something like 5.26 units. FAWKING BLOWS!

The UNC QB played well and UNC looked better than I thought and G-Tech STILL should have covered. :cursin:

I also don't want to leave out UNC catching a TD pass that blew my cover was VERY QUESTIONABLE and was not even reviewed. WTF? That is the point of instant replay. The TD pass was a 30 yard TD pass too. So if it got overturned, UNC still needed to go 30 yards. :cursin:

Just wanted to make it clear to anybody to followed my G-Tech play know that they were without question on the right side.

This is how its been. I AM NOT GETTING ANY FAWKING BREAKS. Makes me want to quit and just ride my USC future plays. After seeing all the elite teams play, NOBODY seems to be on USC's level. so thats good news. But I do know that USC's schedule is tougher than I thought. Thats bad news. All in all, I easily should have won over 10 units today.

Negative units for week 2. Very upset about that. I guess it could have been worse if UAB didn't cover or G-Tech lossed SU. UAB was another game I capped and went fawking wrong. UAB I think took ball inside Troy 5 yard line 3 or 4 times and settled for FG's. WHAT IS UP WITH THIS $HIT. UAB ended up easily covering but what if Troy got big break for easy TD or something. Might been different story.

 

[Spalding]

I tried for the 2nd week in a row buddy! Florida Atlantic this week...check the line right away and get ready!

 

[Scott4USC]

Week 2 Results
-2.25 units ($500 unit)
- $1,125

YTD Results
+6.05 units ($500 unit)
+ $3,025

I tried for the 2nd week in a row buddy! Florida Atlantic this week...check the line right away and get ready!

Hey I listened to you. Or should I say met you half way. I didn't bet Colorado St. I was close to making it a play. You have been offering great advice in my threads and I have not been capitalizing on it. Instead of being +3 units with your picks I am down 2 units. 5 unit swing! ;142loser: