Week 3 Card (Sept 17-19th)

Irish

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I hope this week ends up a littler better for me considering I got killed last week.

Texas (-16.5) over Texas Tech
REVENGE for the burnt orange at home. Tex Tech now takes a young inexperienced team on the road for the first time this season. Texas Tech returns 4 starters on offense. Big numbers against power house N. Dakota and Rice do not scare me with this chalk. One reason is no rushing game for Texas tech. They had 52 yards vs Rice and 40 aginst N.Dakota. We thats what Texas Tech does right, they throw all the time. Remember guys Tech had about 1700 worth of rushing last season with all the guys taking a little peice. So they return Batch but the line isn't opening holes for him and thats the reason for the problems. At WR the red raiders lost 31 TD's and there two go to guys. They lost 4 starters from that o-line and are a team that has little experience to fill those holes for the first year starter Potts. Well Texas returns 7 starters on defense. The quickness and speed plus motivation should have this group playing well at home. The long horn offense has not been looking to sharp and again they seem to have played so far without a lot of emotion which should change in this game. Texas Tech does return some starters on defense but this game should come down to Texas not having to worry about the run and getting a lot of pressure on a young QB with the blitz while having enough guys still in coverage. The Texas offense has yet to find a true horse at running back but this game should light a fire under them. This was the ONE game they lost last year. They feel this game was the reason they did not get a national championship shot. Both teams have played no one and done what they were expected to but considering Texas has yet to play fired up, they get revenge at home against a green offense I think they go out looking to prove something and make a huge statement. No doubt in my mind this is a lot of chalk for Texas to handle but I think the line moves up because Texas has so much to play for and more talent plus home field advantage. Both teams return about 51 players from last year so they know each other but IMO texas is the better team this season with a big chip on their shoulder.

Bowling Green (-3) against Marshall
Gotta love this BG team's effort this season. They go in and thump troy, and then have Mizzou on the ropes going into the 4th quarter. It was an emotional loss for BG but they have to have confidence that the hung with a team that smacked Illinois in the face the week before. One of the big keys for me here is how bad I think VT is and how they handled the herd in every area on saturday. How about this stat... VT had 444 yards rushing against Marshall, even though BG is not the best rushing team they can mix up plays and get a ton of positive plays because Marshall cannot stop the pass or run. I mean if Tyrod Taylor can throw for 161, I think any team has a good shot to pass on them.The VT game would make you think the hokies were doing everything on offense and defense but that is not the case the time of possesion is not off balence and the herd did not kill them selves with turnovers, they are just uneffective on offense. Marshall was pass happy week one and again the key is Slater the TE, he is the go to guy for the herd. Marshall getting Marshall back at running back helps them here but considering they have two players BG's defense should be able to double both of them and still cover. I also like that BG in the first two games of the season is plus-three in turnovers. If BG stops hurting them selves with penalties they have a very good shot to put together a nice record. They have confidence, ability and the oppertunity to take a big W considering they have Boise at home the following week.

Nebraska (+3.5) & (ML) over VT
Speaking of VT, this is a nice spot for Nebraska with VT fat and happy of the beating of Marshall and Miami coming up. This isn't Marshall and it will not be an easy day for VT on offense. Ark St has a pretty good offense and the huskers held them to 9 points. Arkansas State dinged the Huskers for big gainers all afternoon, but the Red Wolves couldn't sustain much. Does this look a lot like the VT offense against Alabama? But this gives Nebraska things to work on at practice this week and get ready for VT. Looking at ?Nebraska you have to think they have a pretty good offense right now. The concern for me when I looked at VT is how many times can a team rely on their defense to win games. Bama showed you can gash VT in the middle and the safeties are not very good in coverage. They are over aggressive and can be beat on draws and playaction. Going to Blacksburg is tough but I think VT is poor on offense and the Marshall game is no indication of how bad this team really is on the o-line. Because if you remember against Bama VT took a punt for a TD and needed an INT to get in range for a FG. The Hokies had a total of 155 yards in that game, 64 rushing and 91 passing while Bama had 498 with a new starting QB. With how balanced Nebraska is on offense I can see them having a very big day because they can keep VT off balance Zack Lee is a solid option for the huskers and he can read coverage well. One issue I have is with Nebraska lack of containment on the ASU QB but I think they can adjust that and be ready for Taylor. VT just is not good on offense if you play the run. Nebraska will play the run and play hard getting Taylor out of his comfort zone and the offense mixes it up to score on the hokies defense. Big game for both teams but I like what I see in Nebraska a lot more than Blackburg. Get on top of VT and the crowd loses energy and let Taylor make mistakes and they might even start to boo him.

Kansas (-21) over Duke
Kansas was not as impressive as I would like against Utep but the key there is it was on the road and the jayhawks never play extremely well on the road. Even though Kansas was not running perfectly they still ran up 576 yards against a UTEP defense with 7 retuning starters on the road. What I really liked in this game was the kansas defense showing there teeth and holding Utep to 4 rushing yards! Then there is Duke with a big win over Army. An emotional win where the blue devils added 21 in the fourth to pull away. What I love is Lewis will start at QB, he was 5-16 for 60 yards against Army, not to shinning. The back up is Renfree who was the better QB but Cutcliff must want experience in during this game. Then there is Dukes rushing game that put up 70 yards on army. Duke just does not have the players to stay with Kansas. The jawhawks offense should score with ease against the blue devils defense which allowed Richmond to post 282 and Army 385!!! So as Kansas puts points on the board the Duke offense will sputter and give the ball back to the jayhawks who will continue to drive and score to make sure they give the home fans something to cheer about. Nothing great on deck with So Miss so the Jayhawks can beat up on an ACC team at least to get some poll points. This is a game where Kansas has every match in its favor and the home field advantage.

Cincy (ML) over Org St
Beavers at home is always tough to play against, but they do have a big game with a conference team on deck with Arizona. This is a nice spot for Cincy to sneak in. Can Cincy stop Quizz rushing the ball? The answer is who cares. Oregon St has three returners on defense and Cincy has 1. So the defenses have holes to fill but both offenses have playmakers. What I like here is the passing attack for Cincy, they have been doing VERY well and the o-line is just something to see. They keep Pike up right and free to find guys all over the field. Portland St threw for 240 plus and UNLV had 228. I know some of those yards are the comback mentality but the Beavers are week in pass coverage. They also have a strong running attack but again I think that is on the o-line. I give the edge to Oregon St in the home field and better team played to date but I give Cincy a big advantage after seeing how they were able to get pressure and play against the Rutgers O-line which I think is one of the better lines in college. Cincys ability to move the ball passing and rushing while Org st being reliant on the run should make it easy to game plan for the Cincy defense. This is a big game for both teams but I think the bearcats are better on offense and both teams need help on defense but Cincy is a bit further along. I think Cincy gets the win in a hard place to play because they have experience on offense and it will be needed in this enviorment.

Cheers
Irish
 

spang

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Good stuff Irish, hope you bounce back in a big way this week .

I really believe that Kelly has a top ten team in the Bearcats. The defense is the concern, but their offense is as explosive as they come. I think they can go west and come back with a nice win.
 

Irish

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Thanks Spang, Corley and throwingpicks. Best of luck to you all this weekend as well!

Baylor (-10) over UConn
Well the huskies lost their starting QB and starting TE, plus they are coming off an emotion loss at home to ranked UNC where a holding penatly in the endzone cost them a safety and the game. Baylor comes in off a week of rest and beating Wake Forest in their house to start the season. The Bear home opener starts the season with a lot of promise. Now UConn played some great defense against the heals but I think that was a bit do to UNC not calling decent plays and mixing it up. Plus UNC had receivers open down field where the guy was either missed or it was a poor throw. I would think Griffen is not going to be as kind at home. I think a great match up is Greg Lloyd vs Griffin in the shadow game. Lloyd was all over the field against Uconn and I cannot see him being able to make as many plays because he will get tired trying to keep Griffin in the pocket and then running after him. The Baylor offense, which would amass 366 total yards sputtered out at time but being that it was week one on the road you should expect the timeing would not be perfect. But when you look at the scripted plays, the first few series Griffin went 9/10 for 96 yards and a TD. I would think with extra time to prepare and more practice this offense becomes more productive. Another reason I like this is how the Baylor defense was able to show different things and confuse Skinner at times, Skinner a multi year starter had difficulties I think the back up QB may have some problems reading and making plays for Uconn. Ten is a big spot but with the injuries, the emotional loss, being on the road, Baylors first home game, coming in off rest, believing in the system and having some VERY good playmakers means Baylor should be able to get it done on offense and make some stops on defense.

NWestern (-4) over Cuse
I am not scared afte E.Mich made a game of it last week. N'Western was the better team. I think being up 21-3 at half some of the boys may have checked out of this game and until it got close they just went through the motions. Then when push came to shove they picked themselves up and took it down the field and did what they had to do. N'Western needs to do a better job of ball control, they were picked off once and fumbled three times and lost two. And I am just not impressed with Cuse, anyone that watched the PSU game saw a lions team that could care less to be there. A turnover lead to the Orange avoiding the shut out. Paulus tossed two picks and only threw for 105 yards. Even thought he is still shaking off the rust he has yet to make the big throws with the exception of the bomb to the wide open reciever in the Minny game. PSU normally a running team was effective threw the air and thats good news because the spread offense should be enough to get mismatches and move the ball on the Cuse secondary. Also remember PSU lost two fumbles in that game but Cuse just could not move the ball, then again it was in happy valley against a much better defense than northwestern. Where I really think a good match up is eight starters return for N'Westerns defense. If you watch Paulus when he gets in trouble the eyes go down to his feet and not down field. Pressure him and he is going to run only. Cover Williams and that becomes easier. Just looking over these two teams I think the wildcats are the better team with more talent. Cuse is a team looking for some sort of moral vicory and they could have made a big step if they beat Minny in OT. Still I think that loss to a toll on them. Many players do not like Paulus being named the starter and even more about him being named Captain so this is a team split and I do not think the are effcient enough if N'Western can score points.

Cheers
Irish
 

Irish

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Miami (-4.5) over GT
This play is interesting for me. You have GT off a big win against Clemson but look at that game. Clemson did nothing in the first half. GT on the other hand seemed to play well but did they? 1 TD off a triple option run of 70 plus yards. One TD of a fake FG pooch punt that GT returned about 80 yards for a TD. Finally the fake punt pass to the uncovered WR for another GT TD. 21 points on three plays. In fact looking at it deeper.. GT was 3-14 on third downs, The QB was 3 of 14 and looked down right terrible, he also tossed two pick. So from that win you really did not see GT really sustain much, in fact what it showed is the yellow jackets have NO passing attack. Nesbitt is averaging a big 36% completition ratio. Thats good cause the speed of Miami on defense is a good match-up. We also saw the secondary of GT was burnt all night long and with the exception of one D-line man the GT defense really never got after the Clemson QB. The Canes have had a week off from the FSU dramatic win so no hang over there, they do get VT in blacksburg next week so they might be looking ahead but Miami does not seem like a team that would do that because they don't have a reason to think GT is a push over. In fact the rushing game killed Miami last year and I am sure some of these miami players remember that game when they got hammered by the jackets. The revenge factor plays into this a bit. You also have to like what we saw when GT played Clemson on special teams, both returners were able to bust big returns all night and you have to think Cooper can do the same. After all he looked very good at FSU in week one. I think this game comes down to the speed of the miami defense and the threats they have at WR. Clemson does not have the weapon at WR that Miami does and the GT defense should be weak against the pass. Harris showed great touch with the deep ball against FSU and those passes should result in points against GT. I think the triple option is a worry but Miami can use about 7 D-linemen all night and be fresh enough to fill gaps while the linebackers clean up the rest. The week off gave Miami the oppertunity to get Eric Moncur and safety Telemaque back in action and both are solid players that will be helpful stopping the GT rushing game. The Canes have the home field advatage which is very nice as well. They come into this game with some confidence and revenge. They have the speed on the outside to throw the ball and James and Cooper can have big nights out of the back field on passing plays and rushing. This game comes down to one group and thats the LBs for miami, if they worked hard this off week and slow the GT running game down the yellowjackets have no offense. I think a big key in that is McCarthy, he was not in the game last season due to injury but being healthy he should be a better player for the Canes stopping the option. I think Miami needs to be aware of where Morgan and Burnett are in this game and they will be fine going away from them. The o-line for miami looked very good against FSU and Harris had great pocket pressence. The D-line looked decent against FSU and I think they have one of the better units at o-line in the ACC. The speed of Maimi is about on the same page as clemson when looking at defense and aside from the trick plays and bad bounces for Clemson last week they made a lot of stops. I think the offense for Miami is a lot better than Clemson and they should have a lot more positive plays all game considering Clemson was almost unstobable in the second half. One play I would like to see Miami use is the wheel route to the RB out of the backfield. Clemson ran it about 4 times and each time they have Spiller on a LB that could not stay with him, get Cooper and james in that same match up and thats gonna be productive. Considering Ford for Clemson and Benjamin for Miami are the same type of players the seam routes deep should be open as well. I really think Miami have a big advantage in the passing attack and if they want to run away with this game they have to take those shots. From what I saw against FSU shannon trusts Harris and wants to see him go deep and let the playmakers at WR make plays. Remember it was a freshman first year starter for Clemson that carved up GT on the road. Eliminate the big play for GT and they will hurt themselves if Nesbitt tries to pass.

Cheers
Irish
 

JOHN JAY

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Great post on the BG vs Marshall game. I have looked over this particular matchup since early Monday. Alot of facotrs to consider ill agree. However I think this could be a potential spot for BG to struggle. I know they've had the throttle wide open sine the season opener but gas is running low. With the big boy on deck next weekend and the lonesome Herd looking to solidify a quality win I look for the Marshall team to step up and deliver. This is a prime spot where the Herd will rally around its home crowd and dominate the line of scrimmage. Opposites side we are but love that you choose this matchup also. Sharp thinking my friend

Marshall +3
 

AR182

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great writeups as usual irish & so far agree with you on cin. & texas.....


good luck this week...
 
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Irish

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Miami/GT UNDER (54)
I like the teams running, just have to avoid the big plays.

Cheers
Irish
 

Irish

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Boise (-7.5) over Fresno
Last year aginst Boise Frenso lost 61-10. Boise is not the same team on the road as on the blue turf. Now Fresno is coming off a pretty emotional loss against a sick Wisky team. I think a big part of tonights game will be how the Junior first year starter for Fresno handles the complexity of the boise defense. Remember Boise shut the ducks down for a lot of their game and the ducks are not high power by any means this season but they are a little better than fresno. The home field advantage is going to be nice for Fresno but I think Boise can handle this game on talent alone. I think a very nice match up is that Fresno jumped out on Wisky, that told Boise this team is a contender and deserves full attention which they should get. Bulldogs had just 13 turnovers forced in 13 games and were 107th in the nation in turnover margin at minus-11. Given the lack of ability to force turnover Boise should be able to move the ball on Fresno and score points. Then if they get ahead they force the junior QB to throw and then Boise can get some turnovers. I think this game is a bit odd since Boise is only spotting 7.5, that makes me say please take boise, so that scares me. Still I have a problem hoping a team plays well and stays in a game against a better team. You look at Fresno they return a handful of players as does Boise but looking deeper if the Wisky game is being used to measure Fresno the Bulldogs were in a dog fight last season with Wisky and lost 10-13. So it might not mean fresno is as good but rather the Frenso coach has a good game plan against a Wisky offense, that does not translate into a great scheme against Boise. Yes Fresno beat up on UC Davis, they played well against a flu bug Wisky team but I think this is going to be too much talant vs not enough. Never a dominating team on the road the broncos still find away to get it done. Plus Kellen Moore shreaded this defense once he should no what to expect and be able to handle the Fresno defense.

Cheers
Irish
 

Irish

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Thanks Rubiconed

Texas A&M (-19.5) over Utah St
I guess a lot is being made of Utah St staying in a game with Utah. Aside from that being a big rival I do not think Utah is a very good team. In fact I would put them in the Area of New Mexico or just above them and the aggies won 41-3 against that team. This system is built for Johnson at QB and his ability to pass and run should be g for Texas A&M over the next few seasons. The aggies lost some players off last years team but I think they got better after those loses. VERY big loses for Teaxas A&M but I think they are a better team this season. Johnson has a good arm and very good ability to read defense. The ability to throw makes the change up with the run very dangerous. Utah State has never been a very good defensive team and I do not think Utah is a very good team so I think they have gotten a little too much repect for being in that contect. On the road in a very loud A&M house it will be tough for Utah St to be able to move the ball and stay in this game. I also think the A&M defense is much better this season. The have a VERY good defensive end in Miller they got younger and faster at LB and they have a solid secondary led by two vet corners. The offensive weapons, the defenses ability to get to the ball, the home field and the fact I think Utah is overrated makes me think Utah st is not ready for this team. Remember this is a team that went 4-8 and it is not something they want to be again. Did I mention A&M returns 4 out of the 5 o-linemen, so I think they have a big advantage up front. A lot of chalk but I think the home field makes the real agggies play with a lot of energy and get it done. They have to be focused and come out ready to play. Which is good because Utah st flirting with Utah should have them focused.

Oregon (-5) over Utah
small play because I think Utah is not as good as years past. Then agan I think Oregon is not as good as they were billed this season but because Utah is the ranked team you have to think Oregon wants to take them down after losing to Boise and being in a dog fight against Purdue. I think the home field advantage is big in this contest. Being a huge game on deck with Cal really scares me but the Ducks need this win to prove something and they have started to find a little more offense as they go along. I'll spot the five in the thoughts the ducks play harder then Utah.
ALSO
ORG/UTAH OVER 54
These teams both can score. Org has made a ton of mistakes and that should slow down but I doubt it stops and that means Utah has a chance at points. Oregon has always gotten big plays and Utah showed they give them up.

UNC (-6.5) over ECU
I was REALLY high on ECU but after watching the game last week I just do not think they have the answers on offense or the ability on defense. UNC is a much better team at home and considering the offense did nothing against UConn it is there turn to step up. I think the running game will be effective since the Mounteeners were able to move the ball all day on ECU. I think WVU is a work in progress and considering they were able to push ECU around the size speed and power of UNC should prove to be too much. I am nervouse about the lask of play makers at WR but I think the UNC defense is enough in this game to hold ECU ddown while the home field advantage allows the UNC offense to rebound from last week. The nine returners on defense for UNC is a huge advantage because the strength of ECU is on offense, which has not shown up. Pinkney is a 100 year seasior but has not improved the was he should throwing around 47% and three picks against some weak defenses. Big game on deck at GT next week should have the UNC offense trying to get the kinks ironed out of the offense. 4 starters on the offensive line need to start playing like it and give Yates some time to throw and Yates needs to hit the open receivers. This guy can be a player but he throws balls in some cases that look like this is his first game. ECU has a lot of returning players but I think this game comes down to skill and the edge goes to UNC, I think they thought they were better then they are and took UConn for granted and were lucky to come out with a win, they don't make that mistake again and they play ECU and beat ECU.

BC (+7) over Clemson
BC is quietly making noise offensively over their last few games. Clemson played well aginst GT but looking at GT is that a good team after Miami handled them? BC returns some solid offensive players especially on the O-line, they are not good defensively and I think this game will come down to which offense makes the most plays. The lack of a true starter at QB for BC scares me but the fact Clemson has to game plan for two players should help BC mix it up. It seems pretty easy when you see Clemson, they are fast on defense and on offense they look to Ford and Spiller. This game will be a lot of offense and I think BC can do enough to stay in this game. Then again since BC has not played anyone with talent this could get ugly quick.

BC/Clemson OVER 45
BC either makes some plays on offense of Clemson runs away with it and runs it up to get some respect back for losing last week against GT.

Cal (-14) over Minny
Come on! The cal offense is way too much for Minny. I do not care if Cal has oregon on deck, they are heads above Minny on offense. They have too much speed for Minny and will be all over the gophers when it comes to making big plays. Javid best should outrun the LBs of Minny, the WR should outrun the CB and safeties for Minny and force the gophers to have to play a game of keep up, which they will not be able to do. Remember Minny let Cuse score a good amount of points against them. Minny has a good QB, they return starters on offense but they are not set up to play a wide open game. Cal is got championship eyes this season and going to minny will be a test for them but they should be up to the challenge. I mean Minnys offense is only averaging 22 points and thats against Air Force and Cuse, two unimpressive defenses. You want some more information well how about Air Force putting closse to 400 yards on the Minny defense. Minny was 4-11 on third downs against AF, they were 5-17 on thrid downs against Cuse. This team has a tough time keeping the chains moving and giving the ball back to Cal will only allow them to keep putting points on the board and making the gap farther and farther apart. The only match-up that bugs me is that Oregon and then USC are coming up for Cal. But just going by averages this game could be 53-22 because the Cal offense will score and they will give Minny chances but they do not take advantage.

Iowa (-4) over Ariz
The hawkeyes have a very good o-line and that will be important as they push folks around and open holes and keep the QB up right looking down field for big plays. Ariz first road game, with another tough road game at Org st after this contest. Iowa has the edge in experience on offense, plus they have the home advantage. Simple really play the run for Iowa, keep Grisby locked down and commit the safety to Gronkowski. Take the safety valves away from the sophmore QB and force him to beat them and then cash in for points when you have teh chance. I like the Iowa o-line a lot and I think they really can put a stamp on this game. Arizona has a good D-line and if the hawkeyes can hold them off it will be a long day for the wildcat defense. Agian another big game on deck with Iowa playing Penn State but I would think the hawkeyes wouldn't walk lightly in this game. The home field advantage should get them ready for this contest. I think this will come dowwn to Stanzi playing well enough to continue to move the ball and put enough points on the board and get out with a big win.

FSU (+8) over BYU
Small play but a play on FSU rebounding from a terrible game last week. FSU has a good o-line but they need to get the running game started. I think the defense is fast enough to get to Hall and I think the TD plus will come into play if FSU works hard. They have the talent to win this game and they have to have a HUGE chip on their schoulders if they want to win.

WVU (+7) over Auburn
small play
Even though I think Auburn is the much better team on defense, I think WVU has an offense that matches up well. WVU uses a lot of speed and misdirection and they should be able to get some advantage to the power and size of Auburn. Tough spot for WVU but they lwon this game at home last season. Can they find those same match ups and get a win again I don't think so but I like them to sneak a few and make this a game. The WVU defense needs to play well because I think they are weak on defense.

ND (-10) Mich St
An emotional home loss for Mich against C.Mich last week. ND off an emotional loss of Mich last week. The question is whio has the better team to rebound for this game. Well IMO thats ND. Not only do they get the home field (which have not been that much in recent matchups) but they have the advantage in skill. I think Weis is a clown and all the good work he did calling plays went out the window in the final two mins of that Mich game. Still the Irish should be playing with a big Chip on their schoulders, they need to play tough because they cannot afford another slip up. The defense plays a lot faster at home for ND and Mich St aside from Dell and Gantt really don't have the big player. Then you have to think the mich St QB is going into a tough place to play and he has been roatating with another QB so can they get on the same page walking into this game. Tate could be open deep all day he just has to make the big catch, something he does well at home. The ND o-line should be able to push the MSU line around since C.Mich was able to move the ball on the ground but where I think it pays for ND is through the air. Clausen should have a huge game if Charlie is thinking about MSU and not the post game buffett as he did in Ann Arbor last week.

L'Ville (+14) over Kent
Small
Both teams are really rebuilding. Not sold on L'ville but this is a big rivalry game and each team normally comes with a big effort and I'll take 14 on the case that if their is one game L'Ville wants to win it is this one.

Tenn (+30) over FLA
small
I mean it is THIRTY points and I know Myer wants to shut Kiffin up but you would have to think the Vols players want to back him up. Fla is the better team in almost every position but Tenn does have NFL coaching staff... I mean its 30 points in conference... its beggin me to take Tenn which means the book think Fla will roll.

UVA/S.Miss OVER 46
I just see no defense here, even though UVA is not good on offense I think S.Miss could score at ease and UVA pops in a few TDs to help get over this total.

UNLV (-7) over Hawaii
small
UNLV showed me something last week and I am not sold on Hawaii away from the big island. Off a tough loss last week the running rebs should be ready for this offense and they have the ability to score on the warrior defense that should get no rush.

Georgia (+2) over Ark
small
I know Ark returns a ton of starters and get Mich QB, but I think the bulldogs defense, which did not show up last week rebounds. Georgia showed they can score and even with the returning players from a par Ark team Geogia has to come out and play on fire. Georgia has won against a tough SC team and they did play the better team in okie st. A big win against Mizz St doees not impress me in this battle.

I think thats it unless something comes up later I like.

Best of luck to you all this weekend.

Cheers
Irish
 
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