I hope this week ends up a littler better for me considering I got killed last week.
Texas (-16.5) over Texas Tech
REVENGE for the burnt orange at home. Tex Tech now takes a young inexperienced team on the road for the first time this season. Texas Tech returns 4 starters on offense. Big numbers against power house N. Dakota and Rice do not scare me with this chalk. One reason is no rushing game for Texas tech. They had 52 yards vs Rice and 40 aginst N.Dakota. We thats what Texas Tech does right, they throw all the time. Remember guys Tech had about 1700 worth of rushing last season with all the guys taking a little peice. So they return Batch but the line isn't opening holes for him and thats the reason for the problems. At WR the red raiders lost 31 TD's and there two go to guys. They lost 4 starters from that o-line and are a team that has little experience to fill those holes for the first year starter Potts. Well Texas returns 7 starters on defense. The quickness and speed plus motivation should have this group playing well at home. The long horn offense has not been looking to sharp and again they seem to have played so far without a lot of emotion which should change in this game. Texas Tech does return some starters on defense but this game should come down to Texas not having to worry about the run and getting a lot of pressure on a young QB with the blitz while having enough guys still in coverage. The Texas offense has yet to find a true horse at running back but this game should light a fire under them. This was the ONE game they lost last year. They feel this game was the reason they did not get a national championship shot. Both teams have played no one and done what they were expected to but considering Texas has yet to play fired up, they get revenge at home against a green offense I think they go out looking to prove something and make a huge statement. No doubt in my mind this is a lot of chalk for Texas to handle but I think the line moves up because Texas has so much to play for and more talent plus home field advantage. Both teams return about 51 players from last year so they know each other but IMO texas is the better team this season with a big chip on their shoulder.
Bowling Green (-3) against Marshall
Gotta love this BG team's effort this season. They go in and thump troy, and then have Mizzou on the ropes going into the 4th quarter. It was an emotional loss for BG but they have to have confidence that the hung with a team that smacked Illinois in the face the week before. One of the big keys for me here is how bad I think VT is and how they handled the herd in every area on saturday. How about this stat... VT had 444 yards rushing against Marshall, even though BG is not the best rushing team they can mix up plays and get a ton of positive plays because Marshall cannot stop the pass or run. I mean if Tyrod Taylor can throw for 161, I think any team has a good shot to pass on them.The VT game would make you think the hokies were doing everything on offense and defense but that is not the case the time of possesion is not off balence and the herd did not kill them selves with turnovers, they are just uneffective on offense. Marshall was pass happy week one and again the key is Slater the TE, he is the go to guy for the herd. Marshall getting Marshall back at running back helps them here but considering they have two players BG's defense should be able to double both of them and still cover. I also like that BG in the first two games of the season is plus-three in turnovers. If BG stops hurting them selves with penalties they have a very good shot to put together a nice record. They have confidence, ability and the oppertunity to take a big W considering they have Boise at home the following week.
Nebraska (+3.5) & (ML) over VT
Speaking of VT, this is a nice spot for Nebraska with VT fat and happy of the beating of Marshall and Miami coming up. This isn't Marshall and it will not be an easy day for VT on offense. Ark St has a pretty good offense and the huskers held them to 9 points. Arkansas State dinged the Huskers for big gainers all afternoon, but the Red Wolves couldn't sustain much. Does this look a lot like the VT offense against Alabama? But this gives Nebraska things to work on at practice this week and get ready for VT. Looking at ?Nebraska you have to think they have a pretty good offense right now. The concern for me when I looked at VT is how many times can a team rely on their defense to win games. Bama showed you can gash VT in the middle and the safeties are not very good in coverage. They are over aggressive and can be beat on draws and playaction. Going to Blacksburg is tough but I think VT is poor on offense and the Marshall game is no indication of how bad this team really is on the o-line. Because if you remember against Bama VT took a punt for a TD and needed an INT to get in range for a FG. The Hokies had a total of 155 yards in that game, 64 rushing and 91 passing while Bama had 498 with a new starting QB. With how balanced Nebraska is on offense I can see them having a very big day because they can keep VT off balance Zack Lee is a solid option for the huskers and he can read coverage well. One issue I have is with Nebraska lack of containment on the ASU QB but I think they can adjust that and be ready for Taylor. VT just is not good on offense if you play the run. Nebraska will play the run and play hard getting Taylor out of his comfort zone and the offense mixes it up to score on the hokies defense. Big game for both teams but I like what I see in Nebraska a lot more than Blackburg. Get on top of VT and the crowd loses energy and let Taylor make mistakes and they might even start to boo him.
Kansas (-21) over Duke
Kansas was not as impressive as I would like against Utep but the key there is it was on the road and the jayhawks never play extremely well on the road. Even though Kansas was not running perfectly they still ran up 576 yards against a UTEP defense with 7 retuning starters on the road. What I really liked in this game was the kansas defense showing there teeth and holding Utep to 4 rushing yards! Then there is Duke with a big win over Army. An emotional win where the blue devils added 21 in the fourth to pull away. What I love is Lewis will start at QB, he was 5-16 for 60 yards against Army, not to shinning. The back up is Renfree who was the better QB but Cutcliff must want experience in during this game. Then there is Dukes rushing game that put up 70 yards on army. Duke just does not have the players to stay with Kansas. The jawhawks offense should score with ease against the blue devils defense which allowed Richmond to post 282 and Army 385!!! So as Kansas puts points on the board the Duke offense will sputter and give the ball back to the jayhawks who will continue to drive and score to make sure they give the home fans something to cheer about. Nothing great on deck with So Miss so the Jayhawks can beat up on an ACC team at least to get some poll points. This is a game where Kansas has every match in its favor and the home field advantage.
Cincy (ML) over Org St
Beavers at home is always tough to play against, but they do have a big game with a conference team on deck with Arizona. This is a nice spot for Cincy to sneak in. Can Cincy stop Quizz rushing the ball? The answer is who cares. Oregon St has three returners on defense and Cincy has 1. So the defenses have holes to fill but both offenses have playmakers. What I like here is the passing attack for Cincy, they have been doing VERY well and the o-line is just something to see. They keep Pike up right and free to find guys all over the field. Portland St threw for 240 plus and UNLV had 228. I know some of those yards are the comback mentality but the Beavers are week in pass coverage. They also have a strong running attack but again I think that is on the o-line. I give the edge to Oregon St in the home field and better team played to date but I give Cincy a big advantage after seeing how they were able to get pressure and play against the Rutgers O-line which I think is one of the better lines in college. Cincys ability to move the ball passing and rushing while Org st being reliant on the run should make it easy to game plan for the Cincy defense. This is a big game for both teams but I think the bearcats are better on offense and both teams need help on defense but Cincy is a bit further along. I think Cincy gets the win in a hard place to play because they have experience on offense and it will be needed in this enviorment.
Cheers
Irish
Texas (-16.5) over Texas Tech
REVENGE for the burnt orange at home. Tex Tech now takes a young inexperienced team on the road for the first time this season. Texas Tech returns 4 starters on offense. Big numbers against power house N. Dakota and Rice do not scare me with this chalk. One reason is no rushing game for Texas tech. They had 52 yards vs Rice and 40 aginst N.Dakota. We thats what Texas Tech does right, they throw all the time. Remember guys Tech had about 1700 worth of rushing last season with all the guys taking a little peice. So they return Batch but the line isn't opening holes for him and thats the reason for the problems. At WR the red raiders lost 31 TD's and there two go to guys. They lost 4 starters from that o-line and are a team that has little experience to fill those holes for the first year starter Potts. Well Texas returns 7 starters on defense. The quickness and speed plus motivation should have this group playing well at home. The long horn offense has not been looking to sharp and again they seem to have played so far without a lot of emotion which should change in this game. Texas Tech does return some starters on defense but this game should come down to Texas not having to worry about the run and getting a lot of pressure on a young QB with the blitz while having enough guys still in coverage. The Texas offense has yet to find a true horse at running back but this game should light a fire under them. This was the ONE game they lost last year. They feel this game was the reason they did not get a national championship shot. Both teams have played no one and done what they were expected to but considering Texas has yet to play fired up, they get revenge at home against a green offense I think they go out looking to prove something and make a huge statement. No doubt in my mind this is a lot of chalk for Texas to handle but I think the line moves up because Texas has so much to play for and more talent plus home field advantage. Both teams return about 51 players from last year so they know each other but IMO texas is the better team this season with a big chip on their shoulder.
Bowling Green (-3) against Marshall
Gotta love this BG team's effort this season. They go in and thump troy, and then have Mizzou on the ropes going into the 4th quarter. It was an emotional loss for BG but they have to have confidence that the hung with a team that smacked Illinois in the face the week before. One of the big keys for me here is how bad I think VT is and how they handled the herd in every area on saturday. How about this stat... VT had 444 yards rushing against Marshall, even though BG is not the best rushing team they can mix up plays and get a ton of positive plays because Marshall cannot stop the pass or run. I mean if Tyrod Taylor can throw for 161, I think any team has a good shot to pass on them.The VT game would make you think the hokies were doing everything on offense and defense but that is not the case the time of possesion is not off balence and the herd did not kill them selves with turnovers, they are just uneffective on offense. Marshall was pass happy week one and again the key is Slater the TE, he is the go to guy for the herd. Marshall getting Marshall back at running back helps them here but considering they have two players BG's defense should be able to double both of them and still cover. I also like that BG in the first two games of the season is plus-three in turnovers. If BG stops hurting them selves with penalties they have a very good shot to put together a nice record. They have confidence, ability and the oppertunity to take a big W considering they have Boise at home the following week.
Nebraska (+3.5) & (ML) over VT
Speaking of VT, this is a nice spot for Nebraska with VT fat and happy of the beating of Marshall and Miami coming up. This isn't Marshall and it will not be an easy day for VT on offense. Ark St has a pretty good offense and the huskers held them to 9 points. Arkansas State dinged the Huskers for big gainers all afternoon, but the Red Wolves couldn't sustain much. Does this look a lot like the VT offense against Alabama? But this gives Nebraska things to work on at practice this week and get ready for VT. Looking at ?Nebraska you have to think they have a pretty good offense right now. The concern for me when I looked at VT is how many times can a team rely on their defense to win games. Bama showed you can gash VT in the middle and the safeties are not very good in coverage. They are over aggressive and can be beat on draws and playaction. Going to Blacksburg is tough but I think VT is poor on offense and the Marshall game is no indication of how bad this team really is on the o-line. Because if you remember against Bama VT took a punt for a TD and needed an INT to get in range for a FG. The Hokies had a total of 155 yards in that game, 64 rushing and 91 passing while Bama had 498 with a new starting QB. With how balanced Nebraska is on offense I can see them having a very big day because they can keep VT off balance Zack Lee is a solid option for the huskers and he can read coverage well. One issue I have is with Nebraska lack of containment on the ASU QB but I think they can adjust that and be ready for Taylor. VT just is not good on offense if you play the run. Nebraska will play the run and play hard getting Taylor out of his comfort zone and the offense mixes it up to score on the hokies defense. Big game for both teams but I like what I see in Nebraska a lot more than Blackburg. Get on top of VT and the crowd loses energy and let Taylor make mistakes and they might even start to boo him.
Kansas (-21) over Duke
Kansas was not as impressive as I would like against Utep but the key there is it was on the road and the jayhawks never play extremely well on the road. Even though Kansas was not running perfectly they still ran up 576 yards against a UTEP defense with 7 retuning starters on the road. What I really liked in this game was the kansas defense showing there teeth and holding Utep to 4 rushing yards! Then there is Duke with a big win over Army. An emotional win where the blue devils added 21 in the fourth to pull away. What I love is Lewis will start at QB, he was 5-16 for 60 yards against Army, not to shinning. The back up is Renfree who was the better QB but Cutcliff must want experience in during this game. Then there is Dukes rushing game that put up 70 yards on army. Duke just does not have the players to stay with Kansas. The jawhawks offense should score with ease against the blue devils defense which allowed Richmond to post 282 and Army 385!!! So as Kansas puts points on the board the Duke offense will sputter and give the ball back to the jayhawks who will continue to drive and score to make sure they give the home fans something to cheer about. Nothing great on deck with So Miss so the Jayhawks can beat up on an ACC team at least to get some poll points. This is a game where Kansas has every match in its favor and the home field advantage.
Cincy (ML) over Org St
Beavers at home is always tough to play against, but they do have a big game with a conference team on deck with Arizona. This is a nice spot for Cincy to sneak in. Can Cincy stop Quizz rushing the ball? The answer is who cares. Oregon St has three returners on defense and Cincy has 1. So the defenses have holes to fill but both offenses have playmakers. What I like here is the passing attack for Cincy, they have been doing VERY well and the o-line is just something to see. They keep Pike up right and free to find guys all over the field. Portland St threw for 240 plus and UNLV had 228. I know some of those yards are the comback mentality but the Beavers are week in pass coverage. They also have a strong running attack but again I think that is on the o-line. I give the edge to Oregon St in the home field and better team played to date but I give Cincy a big advantage after seeing how they were able to get pressure and play against the Rutgers O-line which I think is one of the better lines in college. Cincys ability to move the ball passing and rushing while Org st being reliant on the run should make it easy to game plan for the Cincy defense. This is a big game for both teams but I think the bearcats are better on offense and both teams need help on defense but Cincy is a bit further along. I think Cincy gets the win in a hard place to play because they have experience on offense and it will be needed in this enviorment.
Cheers
Irish