Week 4 Plays............

[Scott4USC]

Adding 10 units on Louisville -20 over South Florida (8 units betcris -110 & 2 units Pinny -111)

*Original line was -22 and was bet down to -20. So I decided to pound it now at -20. LOVE THIS PLAY!

 

[Dice34]

Thanks Scott for the info... I'll keep him in..

GL with your plays..

 

[Scott4USC]

Adding .2 units ($100) on 5-team 9pt teaser +200 odds: Bowling Green +16.5, Air Force +16, Florida Atlantic +2, V-Tech -2, Louisville -11.5 (betmill)

First teaser of the year and hopefully it is a winner!

soljah67 thanks for posting and enjoyed your write-up and opinion. I also liked Tulsa but is a no play for me right now. I like Idaho in this spot and since the line has moved down, I might force myself to throw couple more units. Whenever I make a play and line goes in my favor, I usually add to it because I (1) getting more value and (2) think I am correct. I'll comment on Idaho.


I may have to downgrade my "BIG 10 GOY" play. I really love Wisconsin over Michigan. Thought I was going to get tad more pts and I expect the line to creep up to +4. It opened at +1.5 and went to +3 back to +2 and now +2.5. This might be a Sat. morning play for me! Getting Wiscy +4 or higher is a great bet! Watch out for it. Great coaching being done @Wisconsin this year. I said prior to Wiscy playing BG that Wisconsin is a team to watch out for in the Big 10. Most publications had them finishing "near" the bottom. They will pull off at least 1 big upset in the Big 10 and contend. Too bad they don't play Ohio St. because IMO high prob. they would beat them outright and you would get sweet ML. Wiscy should be at least a 2 unit play for me at +3.

Louisville is my Big East GOY play as I have 10 units on them which is a huge wager for me. I am 3-0 on my TREND GOY's for a total of +8 units profit. (ND, Clemson, and Fresno St.) Hopefully I keep winning my GOY's. :mj11:

Hurricane Rita has significantly impacted my capping this week. I was looking hard at......

*Houston +2.5 over Southern Miss
*FIU +11 over Arkansas State
*Tulsa +1 over Memphis

IMO it is foolish to even consider any games in Texas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and/or Arkansas at this time. It will be interesting to see how those 3 games turn out.

Good luck to everyone!

 

[Scott4USC]

Adding 3 units on Louisville -20 -108 over South Florida (Pinny)

Total:
13 units

*This might be my strongest play of the year. I will have a write-up on it and I highly suggest get on it now while it is -20 at Pinny and -20.5 at other places. I had 13 units on Fresno St. and ended up with 4 unit profit but if you watched the game and looked at the stats you saw FSU clearly dominated the game and prob. should have won by double digits. I prob. will have max 3-4 games a year where I will go double digit units on. This is my 2nd. My average play this year I think is 4 units. Good luck if you choose to jump on board! This should be an easy winner. I love that I am getting under 3 TD's.

 

[JCDunkDogs]

I like your AF play. Good luck, Scott.

 

[Scott4USC]

Louisville adlock:

I have played 13 big units on Louisville -20 @ South Florida. This line opened @ -22, and USF with their victory over UCF last week has helped move this line in my favor. This is my BIG EAST GOY! I'll explain why I am so confident.

Of the 2 QB?s USF uses, neither has been, can, or shows any sign of any time soon of producing even a decent passing game, which in reality is the only way a team can expect to score with any consistency against UL. Why do I say this? UL we all know has one of the best offenses in the country and they can put pts up in a hurry. USF can?t pass and you need to pass to get back in a game if a team jumps on you. USF rushes the ball decent but Louisville is ranked #5 in the country against the rush allowing only 44.5 yards per game and 1.4 RYAD.
HC Bobby Petrino knows that going 12-0 may not be good enough to get into National championship Game, even though other teams will have 1 loss. He has to have on his teams resume this season away wins of 30+points, beat West Virginia in Morgantown, and continue to completely overpower everyone else for a shot at the championship and big bucks for his school, the sinking Big East, and also for himself. He has the horses to do this against teams like USF whose home field advantage is non existent.

What is really particularly interesting is the opening line for the total in this game was 60, and now is 62.5. Who do you think will add points to this total?????? Louisville or USF?

Louisville is ranked # 7 in scoring offense averaging 47 points per game. USF is 1-10 ATS when they allow 21 or more pts! As I mentioned above, USF success against weaklings UCF and Div 1-AA have come via the ground with neither QB used having any success via the air even against this poor level of competition, they average only 137 yards per game and their passing defense is the only minor chink in UL's armor.

The first quarter especially this season against Oregon State and UK especially has been the only negative in this UL team, and all week according to the papers, HC Bobby Petrino has emphasized and challenged his team to put in a first quarter like they have in their second quarters the past two games when they have outscored their opponents 49-0 combined, allowing just 6 first downs combined, and holding teams to a -23 yds rushing combined.

Louisville is 8-1 ATS away vs an opponent off double digit SU win, and in a bigger picture they are 41-9 ATS when they win SU away.

20pt spread is a large number to cover so I really need motivation from UL to cover it. I think I covered that but here is the final touch to why Louisville will try and bury USF and put on an impressive performance. Louisville has the most active alumni chapter in Tampa, and as of today the AD, and several other school officials are in Tampa doing fundraisers, etc, and an expected 7,000+ tickets have been sold to UL supporters. Moreover 3/4 of the coaching staff arrives Thur. and will travel across the state to recruit in advance of Saturday?s game. This is a huge game for UL in so many ways as a lot of their blue chip players come from the state of Florida. UL NEEDS TO WIN BIG TO IMPRESS! Impress recruits! Impress polls! Impress the large # of UL fans at the game!

The weather in Tampa on Saturday evening is supposed to be ideal and calm. UL makes a huge statement Saturday night, and it doesn't hurt that some Cardinal players remember what happened in this stadium 2 years ago (an outright loss in OT). USF is 1-4 ATS vs opponent with revenge! HC Petrino has worked all week to turn up the screws on defense, and his team will respond.

I have been burned twice this year with refs. This is a Big East conference game so their shouldn't be any referee shenanigans. On a positive not, USF has been the most penalized team in Division -1A FB the past 4 years anyway.

An added bonus........

Louisville is 11-5 ATS last 16 games as conf. away favorites

Go Cardinals!

 

[Ranzzzz]

Good one Scott! Will definitely tail you! GL!!!

 

[taoist]

Louisville adlock:

I didn't read any further.... But I sure am glad I took S. Florida +22 in my college football pool....


...good luck otherwise this week.

 

[Scott4USC]

I didn't read any further.... But I sure am glad I took S. Florida +22 in my college football pool....


...good luck otherwise this week.

Thanks Taoist but if you read further you would know why I put the adlock: up instead of the usual :thumb:

:142lmao:

 

[RexBudler]

Louisville adlock:[/COLOR]

Just wanted you to know I saw the lock thingy and bet my entire account on your lock.

 

[Danny Noonan]

Scott, you do your homework, so I am sure you know that USF beat Louisville 2 years ago in Raymond James. This was a game that UL led by double digits in the second half, but the defense could not get off of the field on 3rd down, and allowed USF to come back for the SU win. I am not saying that UL will lose again, but one of the reasons you cite for backing UL, the alumni chapter in Tampa, was also one of the factors that Petrino pointed to in the loss. He said that the extra attention (alot of the players are from the South Florida area) was a distraction to the team. I listen to the UL radio call in shows on my way home from work. Petrino said things would be handled differently this year on the show, but several of the players, like Elvis Dumerville, have been spending alot of time this week trying to get enough tickets for family and friends. Not trying to rain on your parade, just pass on information being from Kentucky. Good Luck on your plays.

Noonan

 

[Scott4USC]

Scott, you do your homework, so I am sure you know that USF beat Louisville 2 years ago in Raymond James. This was a game that UL led by double digits in the second half, but the defense could not get off of the field on 3rd down, and allowed USF to come back for the SU win. I am not saying that UL will lose again, but one of the reasons you cite for backing UL, the alumni chapter in Tampa, was also one of the factors that Petrino pointed to in the loss. He said that the extra attention (alot of the players are from the South Florida area) was a distraction to the team. I listen to the UL radio call in shows on my way home from work. Petrino said things would be handled differently this year on the show, but several of the players, like Elvis Dumerville, have been spending alot of time this week trying to get enough tickets for family and friends. Not trying to rain on your parade, just pass on information being from Kentucky. Good Luck on your plays.

Noonan

Thanks for contributing in my thread. I appreciate the solid info. Yes I mentioned UL being upset by USF.

it doesn't hurt that some Cardinal players remember what happened in this stadium 2 years ago (an outright loss in OT). USF is 1-4 ATS vs opponent with revenge!

I think UL is a better team now vs 2 years ago. USF was a better team then vs now. Agree?

Petrino said things would be handled differently this year on the show

Good he better! Thats good to know. I didn't know he felt it was "one" of the reasons his team was upset 2 years ago. But don't you think this makes the argument better that UL is now better prepared and they learned from it? Hopefully it goes from a distraction to helping the team! I took the angle that UL will want to destroy USF! Maybe now if they are up double digits, they will pour it on more because they know they were upset last time after being up double digits. I do need UL to pour it on because they must win by at least 3 TD's!

What is your opinion on the play? Another bonus I didn't mention is USF is weak at the DL on defense. We all know UL can pass on anybody, but they should also have strong rushing attack and USF should bring a weak pass rush.

 

[soljah67]

Lol scot I noticed you love to have little debates with many people on here. If I was you I'd stay away from that Louisville/South Florida game. There are going to be isolated thunderstorms in south florida, and I really don't know how both teams will react as it is too early in the year to know. In fact its actualyl too early in the week to know if the storms will actually hit or not, but as of now theres a 60% chance on rain on sat.

Anyways the real question is why the heck are you picking Idaho? I'm telling you Hawaii got better over the bye week and got a few players back and healthy. Lots of good gamblers are all over hawaii, and trust me we have no loyalty to hawaii, I will easily bet against them if I knew they won't cover, this one seems to go the other way with new additions to their team and some key players getting back in shape and more healthy. I'm telling you QB Brennan will have a break out game, SB Ilaoa will show that he is the gamer that I know he is, RB Cox finally joins the team and should make an impact, and the defense is finally gelling and comprehending Glanville's schemes. FYI he simplified it in the second half on the mich st game, that is when UH stopped mighigan st and didn't allow a TD until UH put in their 2nd string Defense and Michigan St still had in their 1st string offense in. NOTE; THAT LAST SENTANCE IS REALLY IMPORTANT!! And it is true; you watch, UH's defense will show up this week. Glanville wasn't a head coach in the NFL for nothing.

 

[Scott4USC]

Adding 2 units Idaho -1 over Hawaii (betcris)

Idaho :thumb:

I admit this is a weird play for me. I am betting big mostly because of principal. I am siding with the Vegas experts on this one and I will come out a winner. I have a total of 6 units on Idaho!!! Vegas made Idaho -3 knowing $$$ would be going on Hawaii. The logical line would be Hawaii opening as -3. Think about it.

You know where Idaho plays? It is hard to get to Moscow Idaho, and once a team does get there, the Kibbie Dome is an anomaly for playing football. The lighting isn't particularly good, and a passing team like Hawaii will find this venue even more confining. Idaho has been one of the worst teams in Div 1 FB the past 3 years, never playing more than 4 HG's/season, but this year the pendulum is swinging, and watch this line change since Boise State beat Bowling Green tonight, as the Broncos are on the Rainbow Warriors mind and are completely taking Idaho for granted. LOOK YOU (soljah67) ARE DOING THE SAME! The entire betting public is doing it as well. :nono:

What I am doing is called playing a false favorite.

Idaho has an excellent QB (Wichman), but they are a very young team. Positive news is they are well coached and will come out strong and highly motivated in their home opener. Hawaii on the other hand is probably the worst road ATS team in the history of CFB and more importantly has a date with Boise State in the islands on October 1 which they have been preparing for.

I am betting that the Sportsbooks won't get clipped, as Hawaii$$ to Idaho $$ now approach 14:1, and this line is down from +3 and may even fall further (until right before gametime when some very serious investors will come in with a ton of Idaho money). It will go down to -1, pk, or +1 but $$$$ will go on Idaho late.

I will predict a 10pt Idaho win. There will be a $hit load of losing tickets on Hawaii and I won't be one of them!

Here is some stuff you might not know. Idaho HC Holt (former USC LB coach ) sat out 4 starters from the Washington game to get them rested for Hawaii. Conf. games have more importance and HC Holt will have his team ready/focused. Idaho played 3 straight road games to open season 2/3 BCS teams. Idaho played Washington St. TOUGH along with UNLV! They struggled badly against Washington but remember, they rested starters!

Hawaii is on 2-6 as RD's in BB RG's, and is a miserable 1-6 ATS away following a bye.

An added bonus......

Idaho is 4-1 ATS at home with revenge

Go Vandals!

 

[Bubba]

Glad to see you finding your own voice (cough cough). Keep it up . I think with your style and high IQ you will do well. Just don't piss in other people's coffee pots

 

[DIRTY Diapers]

I like Idaho myself. Probably will put a few units on the Vandals. Moscow, Idaho is a bitch to get to, and Hawaill has always been suspect on the road. I agree Scott - Las Vegas is screaming for money on Hawaii.

 

[Dr. Little]

Could you please post your record with and without all the halftime plays. I noticed how you lose 75% of your regular plays then make halftime plays to make up for it. I just want to make sure that no newbies come in and just look at your units won overall. Most newbies dont play 1st half and 2nd half games. Thanks I appreciate it. :clap:

 

[Danny Noonan]

Scott, I personally would stay away from this game, but that's just me. I am somewhat averse to laying doubles on the road.

Besides that, there are some other reasons I would be on the sidelines for this one. First, Louisville had there hands full, to say the least, at UK. Granted UK had their entire corps of receivers for that game, but UK is UK, and Louisville was reeling in the second half. I know you feel strongly that when UL needed to salt away the game on the last drive, they did so rather convincingly by pounding Bush. But the UK defense wore down, and they are not as capable as USF's D. There are some parallels that can be drawn from this game to the one 2 years ago at USF, especially the ability to stop drives in the second half. I don't think that you can dismiss the closeness of the game by simply saying it was a rivalry game because most of the games in this series are anything but close regardless of the venue.

Second, for all the talent that Brohm brings to the table, he is still only a sophomore. I firmly believe that LeFors was a better leader who was able to stem momentum effectively when UL was up against it. Brohm may end up being that type of leader, but he is not on par with LeFors in this category at this time. UK may have been able to exploit UL's defensive weakness in the secondary more than USF will be able, but I have to believe that USF is a better team, and playing in Raymond James will be more difficult than playing in the more familiar Commonwealth Stadium for the Cards.

Last, I just think that last year's UL team was much deeper at the skills positions. You had Shelton, Gates, and Bush in the backfield. They were deeper at WR too. If anything would happen to Bush, I would be afraid that the offense would become too one dimensional. Again, I would not want to count on Brohm to have to win the game by himself at this juncture.

Good bantering back and forth about the game, and I will pull for you given I will not have a vested interest in the game.

Noonan

 

[Scott4USC]

Could you please post your record with and without all the halftime plays. I noticed how you lose 75% of your regular plays then make halftime plays to make up for it. I just want to make sure that no newbies come in and just look at your units won overall. Most newbies dont play 1st half and 2nd half games. Thanks I appreciate it. :clap:

:142lmao:

I do not have to hit a high % to turn a profit. That is why I put "weight" on my plays. That is called units. For me personally, which I have explained, $500 a unit is a lot of $$$ FOR ME! I think that is important for people to know. Is that great money management? Maybe not but this is how I do it. So if I handicap and bet a game, and it is not going the way I capped it, I will buy it back or middle it. I have had 4 SUPERB middle opportunities this season and missed out on all of them. If I just hit one of them I would be up over 5k. Just bad luck. Everything I do is explained. I am about winning $$$ for myself. If I just win 10 units this year, that is 5k profit!!!! I have to be very careful.

You see, I have QUALITY units vs QUANTITY units. Most people are attracted to those who are up a ton of units. I could give a crap about that. If I did, I would bet $100 a unit. Let me explain. If I am up 10 units, I am up 5k. If I use $100 unit, and am up 5k, I can brag I am up 50 units! Which looks more impressive? 50 units or 10 units? I choose NOT to do that because IMO it is stupid and misleading. My threads are very professional and organized. I also welcome all opinions into my threads. I am not hurt if someone disagrees with me or challenges me on something.

Now here is where you are missing the beauty of my threads. YOU DO NOT HAVE TO BET MY PLAYS BLINDLY!

I post analysis why I am siding with a team. I give the unit value that I am betting but you can judge for yourself. Everyone knows I use QUALITY units vs QUANTITY units. I make HUGE profit if I win 2 units a week. So you can make up your own decision what you want to do. If you like my analysis on a 2 unit game for me, you can personally make it a 5 unit play for yourself. Or if you have big bet opposite side, you might wager less because I brought up some angles you were not aware of. Then on some plays you might think my analysis is crap and ignore it. Everyone can think for themselves in my threads.

Posters who read my threads become EDUCATED! Again, I do not want anybody betting my plays blindly.

I post my YTD results and my unit size to give myself more accountability and to give others more info about myself to allow them to make a better decision for themselves. I am not afraid to be held accountable for my actions!

In conclusion, my advice to any newbies at this site who "choose" to open my threads is to read my analysis and make up your own decision. I am very confident I will be ahead at the end of the season but educate yourself prior to making any wager. I also recommend jotting down all the posters on this site who do offer analysis and check out their threads each week. You will learn something one week about a team that will help you 3 weeks down the road. That is what I do. Make up your own mind on what you want to wager on. If you handicap on your own, you will make yourself a better handicapper. Betting a posters plays blindly might make you $$$ but will not educate yourself. Good luck!

Have a good day!

BTW, i think I am 15-15-1 ATS (50%) on posted plays that are on page 1 of my threads. I could be off because I quickly added it up. I did not include any added plays that I forgot to post on page 1 and did not include any 2h wagers. I have yet to place a 1h wager all year. All I care about is UNITS! My Units won/loss is 100% correct and documented. Which is the most important thing! It determines profit or loss.

 

[Dr. Little]

Again could you please post how many units you will be down if you did not play 2nd half lines. That way people will have a REAL IDEA of what you are really up or down this year. Good example is the last 2 weeks you lost 75% of your plays including your big plays but you SUPPOSEDLY bet 2nd half lines to middle which in fact was to buy back your losing bet. Your YTD record is very skewed as if the average person did not bet the 2nd half they would be down HUGE. Trust me Scott I have never and will never bet any of your games. You post all of this analysis and it all sounds great but you constantly miss things. Good example is the SC/Bama game; the line moved from SC being favored by 2 to Alabama being favored by 2 1/2 that only would make me pause now is line movement always right NO however you always look at line movement in the other direction as a way to put more money on the wrong play. Good luck on your plays I hope everyone wins however I hope newbies dont open your threads thinking you have any potetial winners. You need to stick to betting on USC that is what made you alot of money. I enjoy reading about USC because you actually know what you are talking about. I have won a ton of money in the PAC 10 and USC this year I hope it continues.