Louisville -20 over South Florida is my GOY! :hitit:
Additional analysis on Louisville over South Florida
I think South Florida will be without 2 DB's against Louisville. DB Verpaele and DB Brant. Both were counted on for contribution prior to the season. More specifically, DB Brant I believe was supposed to be USF's starting nickleback. He is out for sure!
In addition to that, USF at safety is very young and overall their secondary is inexperienced. I think USF has only 1 starter in their secondary with experience.
Can you see where I am getting at,
USF is in trouble against Lousiville's high powered offense. UL has an excellent passing attack lead by an extremely talented QB. BTW, UL has a balanced offensive attack too, so it makes things more difficult because IMO USF is not real strong at DL.
So lets see how USF defense has prepared for this UL passing attack. For starters how about practice? NO! USF is a horrible passing team. Lets see their first 3 opponents. @Penn St., Florida A&M, Central Florida. NOPE! None of those teams come close to having the passing attack of UL. Good luck USF!
South Florida against FAMU had 56 rushes for 377 yards, against UCF 66 rushes for 326. Where is the passing? Is USF waiting to face UL to bring out their passing attack? IMO you don't wait until a big game to try out the passing game. :nono: You can't help but predict a passing game from USF that will be very out of synch against Louisville. INT's anyone? Dropped passes? :yup
The strength of USC offense is their rushing attack where they have an excellent RB. Unfortunately for USC, the strength of the UL defense is their RUSH D! UL also is excellent in getting pressure on the QB! The weakness of the UL D is their pass defense. Fortunately for UL, USF can't pass. USG will be forced to pass when UL jumps on them. If you didn't know, USF's passing attack is almost the WORST in Div I-A, averaging only 137 yards per game.:mj02:
I mentioned in me other write-up why UL will be motived. Here is some additional stuff. It is a Big East conf. game. UL did lose to USC in OT last time they played down there.
Most importantly, on Wed. the Interactive Harris poll will be used for the BCS ranking. LOUISVILLE MUST BLOW OUT USF! :yup
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Below is my original write-up why I love Louisville in case you missed it.
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Louisville adlock:
I have played 16 big units on Louisville -20 @ South Florida. This line opened @ -22, and USF with their victory over UCF last week has helped move this line in my favor. I'll explain why I am so confident.
Of the 2 QB?s USF uses, neither has been, can, or shows any sign of any time soon of producing even a decent passing game, which in reality is the only way a team can expect to score with any consistency against UL. Why do I say this? UL we all know has one of the best offenses in the country and they can put pts up in a hurry. USF can?t pass and you need to pass to get back in a game if a team jumps on you. USF rushes the ball decent but Louisville is ranked #5 in the country against the rush allowing only 44.5 yards per game and 1.4 RYAD.
HC Bobby Petrino knows that going 12-0 may not be good enough to get into National championship Game, even though other teams will have 1 loss. He has to have on his teams resume this season away wins of 30+points, beat West Virginia in Morgantown, and continue to completely overpower everyone else for a shot at the championship and big bucks for his school, the sinking Big East, and also for himself. He has the horses to do this against teams like USF whose home field advantage is non existent.
What is really particularly interesting is the opening line for the total in this game was 60, and now is 62.5. Who do you think will add points to this total?????? Louisville or USF?
Louisville is ranked # 7 in scoring offense averaging 47 points per game. USF is 1-10 ATS when they allow 21 or more pts! As I mentioned above, USF success against weaklings UCF and Div 1-AA have come via the ground with neither QB used having any success via the air even against this poor level of competition, they average only 137 yards per game and their passing defense is the only minor chink in UL's armor.
The first quarter especially this season against Oregon State and UK especially has been the only negative in this UL team, and all week according to the papers, HC Bobby Petrino has emphasized and challenged his team to put in a first quarter like they have in their second quarters the past two games when they have outscored their opponents 49-0 combined, allowing just 6 first downs combined, and holding teams to a -23 yds rushing combined.
Louisville is 8-1 ATS away vs an opponent off double digit SU win, and in a bigger picture they are 41-9 ATS when they win SU away.
20pt spread is a large number to cover so I really need motivation from UL to cover it. I think I covered that but here is the final touch to why Louisville will try and bury USF and put on an impressive performance. Louisville has the most active alumni chapter in Tampa, and as of today the AD, and several other school officials are in Tampa doing fundraisers, etc, and an expected 7,000+ tickets have been sold to UL supporters. Moreover 3/4 of the coaching staff arrives Thur. and will travel across the state to recruit in advance of Saturday?s game. This is a huge game for UL in so many ways as a lot of their blue chip players come from the state of Florida. UL NEEDS TO WIN BIG TO IMPRESS! Impress recruits! Impress polls! Impress the large # of UL fans at the game!
The weather in Tampa on Saturday evening is supposed to be ideal and calm. UL makes a huge statement Saturday night, and it doesn't hurt that some Cardinal players remember what happened in this stadium 2 years ago (an outright loss in OT). USF is 1-4 ATS vs opponent with revenge! HC Petrino has worked all week to turn up the screws on defense, and his team will respond.
I have been burned twice this year with refs. This is a Big East conference game so their shouldn't be any referee shenanigans. On a positive not, USF has been the most penalized team in Division -1A FB the past 4 years anyway.
An added bonus........
Louisville is 11-5 ATS last 16 games as conf. away favorites
Go Cardinals!
